The impending launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is generating a buzz, but VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs suggests that their initial impact on Bitcoin might be more subdued than anticipated.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Gurbacs contended that the immediate influence of a Bitcoin ETF might be overestimated, projecting that it could attract around $100 million in net inflows, primarily from institutional investors reshuffling their existing investments.
Nonetheless, Gurbacs is more optimistic about the long-term implications of these ETFs on the Bitcoin market. He drew a parallel with the gold market, recalling how the introduction of gold ETFs in 2004 led to a remarkable surge in gold prices.
Over eight years, gold’s value surged from $400 to $1,800, while its overall market capitalization expanded from $2 trillion to an impressive $10 trillion.
Comparatively, Bitcoin’s current market cap stands at $834 billion, roughly 41% of gold’s market capitalization in 2004.
Gurbacs speculates that once a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in the United States, it could potentially emulate gold’s growth trajectory but at a much faster pace due to Bitcoin’s fixed supply and periodic halving events.
READ MORE: Major Asset Managers Revise Bitcoin ETF Applications as SEC Deadline Nears
Furthermore, Gurbacs underscores the significance of a Bitcoin ETF in legitimizing and destigmatizing the cryptocurrency in the eyes of institutional investors and nation-states, which could pave the way for substantial investment and adoption.
Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, ETF analysts at Bloomberg, share Gurbacs’ sentiment.
Seyffart emphasized that many observers are fixated on short-term data points, such as the immediate influx of funds into the ETF upon approval, without fully grasping the enduring impact such a financial product could have.
As for the current state of the Bitcoin market, it is trading at $42,525, having risen 1.1% in the last 24 hours, according to TradingView data.
While some believe that the anticipated ETF approval will trigger a substantial and sustained price increase, others argue that it might be a “sell the news” event, potentially leading to a different market response.
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