A 40% chance of a recession looms over the U.S. in 2025, with trade war fears and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty fueling the risk. According to Nic Puckrin, the founder of Coin Bureau, while a recession isn’t certain, the economic environment could harm risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Puckrin remarked:
“Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot.”
Impact of Trump Administration’s Economic Policies
Puckrin also explained that while Trump is not intentionally pushing for a recession, policies such as job cuts and budget balancing could trigger an economic slowdown. This uncertainty has contributed to a decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors look to European markets for better opportunities.
Crypto Markets Struggle Amid Trade War
The U.S. trade war, particularly with China, has already impacted cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin dropping significantly. Fears of prolonged tariffs have caused market sentiment to shift into extreme fear, though some analysts believe there could be a potential recovery if the situation stabilizes.
Signs of Potential Recovery
Markus Thielen of 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may have reached a price bottom in March 2025, with the potential for a reversal if Trump softens his stance on tariffs.
