According to lawyer Bill Morgan, closely following the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the chances of the SEC winning its appeal are incredibly slim.
Morgan took to social media, specifically X (formerly Twitter), to express his opinion on the matter. He emphasized that there is no glaringly apparent error in the case that would support an appeal, except for one point that favors Ripple.
In particular, he pointed out that the sales of XRP, Ripple’s cryptocurrency, do not meet at least two key criteria of the Howey test, a legal standard used to determine whether an asset qualifies as a security.
Morgan generously assigned a mere 3% likelihood of success for the SEC’s appeal against Ripple.
Morgan’s assessment came in response to data shared by prominent attorney Jeremy Hogan, who presented statistics on the success rates of appeals in various types of lawsuits.
According to this data, the SEC faces a meager 14.2% chance of prevailing in its appeal against Ripple.
READ MORE: Ripple Scores Legal Victory, But LBRY’s Closure Raises Questions About SEC’s Approach
This lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple has spanned three years, with a recent ruling by a judge declaring that the sale of XRP on cryptocurrency exchanges does not violate securities laws.
This ruling was a significant victory for Ripple, which had suffered substantial setbacks as major crypto exchanges delisted XRP during the lawsuit.
The SEC attempted to appeal this judgment but was unsuccessful, with Judge Analisa Torres ruling that the regulator had failed to demonstrate controlling questions of law or substantial grounds for differences of opinion.
In a surprising turn of events, the SEC decided to dismiss all charges against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive chair Chris Larsen.
Ripple’s chief legal officer, Stuart Alderoty, characterized this move by the SEC as a “surrender,” while Ripple itself referred to it as a “stunning capitulation.”
Morgan also highlighted that the SEC has now dismissed the remainder of the case, meaning there will be no trial in the coming year.
He predicted that a final judgment would likely be issued sometime next year, bringing an end to this protracted legal battle between Ripple and the SEC.
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