The recent behavior of institutional investors and Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders indicates a relatively stable market with minimal selling pressure expected in the near term.
Despite the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price below $60,000, current data suggests that these major players are not positioned for significant sell-offs, which could have indicated a local bottom for Bitcoin’s price.
According to CryptoQuant, short-term Bitcoin whales—defined as investors holding at least 1,000 BTC for no more than 155 days—show an unrealized profit of only 1.6%.
This minimal gain contrasts sharply with long-term holders of the same Bitcoin volume, who have been holding for over 155 days and enjoy an unrealized profit of 223%.
Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighted this disparity in an April 19 X post, emphasizing the significant profit margins experienced by different investor cohorts.
Further insights from CryptoQuant reveal that while small miners have an unrealized profit of 131%, larger mining firms have accrued 81%.
Notably, the top five mining firms have refrained from selling their holdings in anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, contributing to a reduction in sales to a two-year low as of the first quarter of 2024.
Bitcoin’s price fluctuations have also caught the attention of market analysts. After falling below $60,000 twice in April, Bitcoin recovered, approaching $65,000.
This pattern has led some analysts to suggest that a “double bottom” may have formed, potentially signaling a rebound in price.
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Additionally, technical indicators like the relative strength index (RSI), which had previously shown Bitcoin as overbought in March, adjusted back to a neutral level of 46 in recent measurements.
This reset in technical indicators supports the notion that Bitcoin might have reached a local bottom earlier in the week, as posited by Arthur Cheong, founder of DeFiance Capital, in another April 19 X post.
On the technical front, Bitcoin recently broke out from a significant trading channel on the 4-hour chart, prompting predictions of a possible rise to $72,000, as noted by crypto trader Satoshi Flipper.
However, the market dynamics are also influenced by the ETF sector, where institutional net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative around the time of the halving, with more than $147 million in net outflows recorded on April 18.
This trend contributed to Bitcoin’s price dip, though Denis Petrovcic, CEO of Blocksquare, remains optimistic.
He told Cointelegraph, “While some might anticipate a drop post-halving, the sustained institutional interest and decreased block rewards should keep BTC prices stable or slightly bullish, avoiding the typical ‘sell the news’ fallout.”
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