The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) might see its BTC price “discount” eliminated by 2024, according to CoinGlass, a monitoring resource.
After Grayscale secured a legal victory over US regulators on August 29th, the declining performance of GBTC could potentially be addressed.
With a holding of over 600,000 BTC, the fund has been trading below the Bitcoin spot price, known as net asset value, since February 2021.
The once-positive “GBTC premium” has been negative for more than two and a half years, but this trend might be reversing soon.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s requirement to consider GBTC’s conversion into a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund under the same terms as other applicants pushed the “discount” to its lowest point since December 2021, now standing at just -17%, less than half of its peak around 50%.
CoinGlass expressed optimism in a future recovery: “Expect Grayscale $GBTC premium to close the discount next year.”
Dylan LeClair, senior analyst at digital asset fund UTXO Management, emphasized GBTC’s significance in influencing Bitcoin’s journey to record highs in 2021 due to its vast assets under management.
He noted, “Today’s discount move from -26% to -17% is the equivalent of 56,000 BTC returning to the AUM of $GBTC if shares are marked to market.”
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The recent Grayscale development might also impact Bitcoin’s price action by reintroducing key moving averages (MAs).
The 200-week and 200-day trend lines, which failed to provide support during Bitcoin’s previous drop in August, could potentially regain their importance.
Despite BTC/USD struggling to maintain these levels, Rekt Capital, a prominent trader and analyst, highlighted the significance of these MAs in reclaiming bullish momentum.
Rekt Capital noted, “This is great initial momentum from ~$26K support which never broke down to fully confirm the Double Top.”
He also stressed the importance of Bitcoin reclaiming Bull Market moving averages as support to confirm a bullish outlook.
In summary, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could reverse its negative price “discount” in 2024, supported by recent legal developments and positive sentiments.
The fund’s large BTC holdings and its potential impact on Bitcoin’s price movement were highlighted, along with the significance of reclaiming key moving averages for sustained bullish momentum.
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