Former President Donald Trump is now leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points on the Polymarket prediction platform, marking a significant shift from the betting odds in September.
According to the latest data from Polymarket, Trump has a 55% chance of winning the upcoming presidential election in November, compared to Harris’ 45% chance.
Trump has also gained ground in four of the six key swing states, overtaking Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. His largest margins are in Arizona and Georgia, where the GOP candidate currently holds a comfortable lead.
While Trump has steadily gained the upper hand on Polymarket, CNBC’s Jim Cramer made a bold prediction on October 11, stating that Harris is likely to win the 2024 election.
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins,” Cramer remarked, a prediction that quickly gained attention on social media due to the so-called “inverse Cramer effect.”
This effect is a popular notion among cryptocurrency traders, suggesting that whatever Cramer predicts, the opposite is likely to occur.
Trump’s rising odds on Polymarket come as he has made public gestures to win support from the cryptocurrency community.
On September 18, Trump made headlines by using Bitcoin (BTC) to buy burgers at a New York bar, in a move designed to appeal to crypto voters. This followed the announcement of his decentralized finance project, World Liberty Financial, which launched a native token.
The move sparked mixed reactions in the crypto community. Journalist Nic Carter argued that it could hurt Trump’s chances, particularly if the project is targeted by hackers, calling it “the juiciest DeFi target ever.”
However, some industry experts believe that the outcome of the 2024 election will have little impact on Bitcoin’s price or the broader adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, recently predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 regardless of who wins the presidency in November.
