In 2023, Bitcoin miners have been facing an uphill battle as the cryptocurrency market experiences volatility and uncertainty.
The past year has seen a surge in BTC being sent to centralized exchanges by miners to cover their operational costs.
The Bitcoin mining industry had a momentous year, earning a staggering $184 million from transaction fees in the second quarter of 2023.
This increase was attributed to the rebound in BTC’s price and the growing excitement surrounding BRC-20 tokens.
However, despite this revenue boost, prominent mining firms’ stocks outperformed Bitcoin’s market value by a significant margin, with their market capitalization rising by 257% since the start of the year.
To cope with the prolonged bear market, miners have been forced to sell mined BTC to cover expenses. June 2023 witnessed a record $128 million worth of Bitcoin sent to exchanges, leading experts to highlight miners’ tendency to cash out, cover costs, and secure profits.
Reports from Bitfinex indicate that mining companies are engaging in derisking strategies by offloading BTC to exchanges.
These strategies involve hedging activities in the derivatives market, conducting over-the-counter orders, or transferring funds through exchanges for various purposes.
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Cointelegraph reached out to prominent mining companies for insights into the current mining climate. Hut8’s CEO, Jaime Leverton, revealed that the company had been pursuing a merger with USBTC, which hindered its capital-raising efforts through at-the-market offerings.
To meet its operating costs, Hut8 sold a portion of its Bitcoin holdings and newly produced BTC.
Nevertheless, Leverton assured that the company still held more than 9,100 BTC (equivalent to $271 million) and remained bullish on Bitcoin, maintaining one of the largest self-mined Bitcoin reserves among publicly traded companies.
Foundry’s senior manager, Charles Chong, pointed out that current market conditions differed from previous bull markets, where miners could hold onto their BTC due to abundant external capital and higher production margins.
Now, with scarce external funding and reduced margins of 15-30%, miners are compelled to liquidate their Bitcoin to sustain operations.
Chong also noted that comparing the current market to the bear markets following the 2017 and 2021 peaks was challenging.
Bitcoin mining operates in cycles, with miners overinvesting in ASIC mining equipment during favorable times.
The recent all-time high in Bitcoin mining difficulty indicated a robust network, with new, more efficient mining equipment entering the market, requiring miners to update their fleets to remain profitable.
Despite market challenges, industry participants’ continuous deployment of machines and increasing hashrates signals their optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future price appreciation.
Difficulty increases, driven by rising hashrates, reflect miners’ confidence in potential upside for BTC’s price.
Unfortunately, the tough market conditions led to the closure of some major mining firms, including Core Scientific, which filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in June 2023.
However, the company managed to raise substantial capital to initiate a reorganization plan slated for September 2023.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of an impending burst of volatility, comparable to the significant 40% gains it experienced in January.
On-chain data, as reported in analytics firm Glassnode’s weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, points to the tightest Bollinger Bands for BTC since the beginning of 2023.
BTC’s price has remained in a narrow range for a whole month, with $30,000 acting as a pivotal point for sideways movement.
This situation is testing both bullish and bearish traders, leaving them uncertain about the future direction of the market.
Analyst Aksel Kibar observed on July 21 that the prolonged sideways action is often a precursor to strong price movements, although he remains unsure of the direction.
To prepare for the upcoming surge in volatility, he sticks to his well-defined boundaries and awaits the directional move.
Bollinger Bands, a classic volatility indicator, are currently signaling that the days of rangebound BTC price action are limited. These bands use standard deviation around a simple moving average to determine when a shift in trend is likely.
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At present, the upper and lower bands are closer together than at any point during BTC’s upside in 2023, indicating a potentially significant move soon.
The market is experiencing a period of extremely low volatility, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands indicating an extreme squeeze, marking the “quietest BTC market since the lull in early January.”
Such a scenario previously led to a breakout in January, resulting in substantial gains throughout the month.
Glassnode also observed that, despite BTC’s price gains since January, there is little active selling for profit or loss at current levels.
This lack of “realized” activity is a common occurrence after price cycle lows.
Investors seem reluctant to spend their coins on-chain, as evidenced by the relatively small sum of profits and losses locked in by the market, amounting to approximately $290 million per day.
This figure, although significant on a nominal basis, is comparable to the situation in 2019 and October 2020, even though the Bitcoin market cap has approximately doubled since then.
In summary, Bitcoin’s tight Bollinger Bands and the lack of active selling indicate an imminent surge in volatility.
Traders and investors are eagerly anticipating the directional move, as it has the potential to rival the significant gains witnessed in January.
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Pledges to Back US Dollar with Bitcoin if Elected President
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has unveiled his plan to back the United States dollar with Bitcoin (BTC) if he wins the presidency.
Kennedy made this announcement during a Heal-the-Divide PAC event on July 19, where he emphasized the potential of using “hard currency” like gold, silver, platinum, or Bitcoin to stabilize the American economy.
Kennedy believes that backing the U.S. dollar with tangible assets could strengthen the currency, combat inflation, and foster financial stability, peace, and prosperity in the nation.
He clarified that this process would be implemented gradually, and the level of backing for the dollar would be adjusted based on the success of the plan.
To initiate the strategy, Kennedy proposed a conservative approach, suggesting that initially, only a small portion of issued T-bills, perhaps around 1%, would be backed by hard currency such as gold, silver, platinum, or Bitcoin.
In addition to his backing of Bitcoin, Kennedy also declared his intention to exempt Bitcoin to U.S. dollar conversions from capital gains taxes.
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He believes that this exemption would encourage investment and incentivize businesses to choose the United States as their primary location, rather than crypto-friendly jurisdictions like Singapore or Switzerland.
Kennedy’s recent statements in support of Bitcoin follow his participation in the Bitcoin 2023 conference in Miami on May 19, where he announced that he would accept political campaign donations in Bitcoin.
Surprisingly, investment disclosures on July 9 revealed that Kennedy himself owned up to $250,000 worth of Bitcoin, contradicting his earlier claims of having no exposure to the asset.
Kennedy is not the only presidential candidate making promises related to cryptocurrencies.
On July 14, Republican presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis vowed to ban central bank digital currencies if elected as president, asserting that such currencies would have no place in the United States under his leadership.
As the race for the presidency continues, it remains to be seen how these crypto-based promises and proposals will shape the future of the American economy and financial landscape.
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Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a drop below the $30,000 mark on July 18, surprising retail investors who had witnessed positive developments in the past month.
However, this downward movement does not indicate a shift in the long-term trend.
Despite the recent decline, there are positive signs to consider. Bitcoin is still making efforts to establish $30,000 as a support level, with numerous attempts since April.
Moreover, buyers consistently emerge within the $28,000 to $25,000 range, which seems to be viewed as an accumulation zone.
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score aligns with this sentiment, revealing that larger entities are accumulating BTC rather than distributing it.
The Accumulation Trend Score indicates that buyers were accumulating from November to December and continued to do so from March to April when Bitcoin surpassed $30,000.
The score suggests that the same accumulation behavior is occurring in July, possibly due to Bitcoin’s attempt to conquer the $30,000 resistance or the positive news surrounding ETFs and XRP SEC.
The current price action and derivatives market data indicate that Bitcoin is in a crab market, characterized by a range-bound price that consolidates for an extended period.
Breaking through the $32,000 level could trigger a CME gap fill from the Luna Terra-crash era.
On a weekly market structure basis, $30,000 serves as a crucial pivot point, previously functioning as support in the last bull market cycle and now as resistance.
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Surpassing this level would signify a higher high and confirm a trend reversal, with the next resistance point at approximately $37,000.
In the derivatives market, trading activity remains relatively muted, with funding down and open interest not displaying significant surges.
This suggests that a substantial breakout is yet to occur. While the recent dip in the DXY (U.S. Dollar Currency Index) may have influenced investor sentiment, it is unlikely to trigger an immediate massive reaction in Bitcoin.
Although short-term price fluctuations may concern new investors and day-traders, the on-chain perspective presents a compelling outlook.
The Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses metric has been on an uptrend since March 16, indicating that investors continue to increase their allocation to Bitcoin, even throughout the crypto market collapse and price sell-off.
It is worth noting that the metric also reveals a continuous increase in the total balance in accumulation addresses since January 2022, when Bitcoin was trading at $47,800 per coin.
This data highlights investors’ long-term confidence in Bitcoin and their ongoing accumulation of the cryptocurrency.
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Data suggests that the price of Bitcoin is likely to drop below $29,000 in the near future.
The inability to break above $31,800 on July 13 led to a 6.3% correction, bringing the price down to $29,700 on July 17.
Investors are concerned that ongoing regulatory developments and macroeconomic challenges could push Bitcoin below the $29,000 level, last seen on June 21.
Bitcoin futures indicate increased demand, but Asian markets are slowing down. Typically, Bitcoin futures trade at a slight premium compared to spot markets, indicating sellers’ willingness to delay settlement for more money.
Healthy markets usually exhibit BTC futures contracts trading at a 5% to 10% annualized premium.
Between July 14 and July 17, BTC futures maintained a 7% premium, surpassing the 5% threshold, suggesting moderate conviction among bulls after the unsuccessful attempt to break above $31,800.
However, the premium of Tether (USDT) in Asia has been decreasing. The stablecoin premium serves as an indicator of demand from China-based retail crypto traders, measuring the difference between peer-to-peer trades and the U.S. dollar.
The recent Tether premium in Asia reached a discount of 1.8%, its lowest point in over six months.
This widening discount trend, starting on July 12, indicates moderate sell pressure.
Regulatory concerns continue to affect the crypto sector.
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While the July 13 ruling that the sale of XRP via exchanges and over-the-counter desks did not violate securities regulations boosted markets, it did not definitively determine whether XRP’s initial coin offering was classified as a security offering.
This lack of clarity unsettles some investors, raising the possibility of other cryptocurrencies facing similar designations.
Additionally, Binance’s layoff of 1,000 employees and the departure of key executives, along with ongoing court actions from the Securities and Exchange Commission, have raised concerns about the future of the exchange.
Macroeconomic trends also pose challenges for Bitcoin and risk-on assets. China’s second-quarter gross domestic product growth fell short of expectations due to factors like the trade war with the United States and the government’s efforts to address debt.
These external factors, along with impending court decisions that could negatively impact major exchanges, increase the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping below $29,000.
In terms of trading, BTC futures indicate higher confidence among professional traders using leverage. However, sell pressure from retail investors in Asia limits the overall upside potential for cryptocurrencies.
Without a specific catalyst to drive it higher, Bitcoin’s price is susceptible to worsening macroeconomic conditions and indications of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve in 2023.
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Bitcoin’s performance in the second quarter of 2023 has been strong, with its market dominance increasing against altcoins that experienced losses during the period, as reported by CoinGecko.
The crypto data aggregator released its Q2 industry report on July 18, revealing that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) continued to build on their gains from the previous quarter.
While Bitcoin and Ether made progress, other cryptocurrencies suffered double-digit losses.
Binance Coin (BNB), XRP, and Cardano (ADA) were among the hardest hit. BNB and ADA were particularly affected due to their classification as securities in lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector also took a hit, with tokens like Uniswap (UNI), Chainlink (LINK), and Lido (LDO) experiencing significant losses.
Metaverse and play-to-earn tokens, including Axie Infinity (AXS), Sandbox (SAND), and Decentraland (MANA), also faced losses of up to 40%.
Bitcoin’s dominance reached a two-year high of over 52% in late June but subsequently dropped below 50% due to an altcoin rally fueled by Ripple’s partial court victory.
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However, most altcoins that had gained following the XRP pump lost their gains, returning the market to its pre-ruling state.
CoinGecko’s report highlighted that the total market capitalization remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, starting and ending at $1.2 trillion.
As the third quarter began, the market cap remained unchanged at $1.2 trillion.
Bitcoin emerged as the winner of the period, outperforming the rest of the market with a gain of nearly 7%.
However, the average daily trading volume for BTC declined by 58.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Despite this decline, the report stated that Bitcoin still outperformed most major asset classes in Q2, trailing only behind the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
With most altcoins, except for XRP, currently experiencing a retreat, the prospects for an early “altseason” are diminishing. Bitcoin continues to maintain its position as the dominant cryptocurrency in the market.
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FSB Proposes Global Regulatory Framework for Cryptocurrencies
The Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international organization responsible for overseeing the global financial system, has developed a comprehensive global regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
The guidelines have been presented to the G20, which represents the 20 leading economies worldwide. The framework is built on the principle of “same activity, same risk, same regulation.”
On July 17, the FSB released a public note and two separate guideline documents.
These documents comprise high-level recommendations for regulating cryptocurrencies in general, as well as revised recommendations specifically focused on “global stablecoins.”
The latter refers to stablecoins that have the potential for cross-jurisdictional usage.
The FSB emphasizes the importance of segregating clients’ digital assets from the funds of crypto platforms and maintaining clear functional separation to avoid conflicts of interest.
Cross-border cooperation and oversight by regulators are essential in ensuring the effectiveness of these measures.
While acknowledging the value of privacy, the FSB urges local regulators to ensure that activities related to decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols do not hinder the identification of responsible entities or affiliated entities.
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The recommendations state that authorities should have access to necessary data to fulfill their regulatory and supervisory mandates.
Regarding global stablecoins, the FSB highlights the need for stablecoin issuers to establish a “governance body” consisting of identifiable and responsible legal entities or individuals.
Issuers are expected to hold reserve assets in a minimum proportion of 1:1 unless they are subject to prudential requirements equivalent to those imposed on commercial banks.
One notable addition to the guidelines is the potential requirement for global stablecoin issuers to obtain permits to operate in each jurisdiction.
The FSB states that GSC arrangements should not be permitted within a jurisdiction unless they meet all regulatory, supervisory, and oversight requirements, including obtaining affirmative approval.
The FSB plans to assess the worldwide implementation of its recommendations by the end of 2025.
In September 2023, in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund, it will submit a joint report on existing policies and regulatory issues to the G20.
In alignment with the FSB’s stance, the Association for Financial Markets in Europe recently urged European Union lawmakers to incorporate decentralized finance (DeFi) into the first EU-wide crypto framework, referencing the FSB’s position on the matter.
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According to recent on-chain data, the popular “buy” level for Bitcoin (BTC) is at $30,000, as indicated by the highest number of transactions occurring near this price point. Glassnode, a crypto analytics firm, monitors unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) and reveals that the largest number of UTXOs were created at a price of $30,200.
To accurately reflect real purchasing events, the firm excludes coin movements between addresses controlled by the same entity and supply held on exchanges, which could distort the mean purchasing price.
The data suggests that there is significant demand for BTC at the $30,000 level, despite the current price action stalling. In fact, 3.8% of the total BTC supply was last moved at $30,200, surpassing even the volume moved at $16,500, which marked the area near the 2022 post-FTX bottom.
These findings have led some market participants, such as pseudonymous trader Mikybull Crypto, to anticipate a potential significant movement in the BTC price.
Furthermore, additional on-chain data supports the notion that long-term holders are uninterested in selling their BTC, despite the price doubling this year.
Glassnode’s Hodled or Lost Coins metric, which examines the “liveliness” of the Bitcoin blockchain, reveals that “old and large stashes” of BTC continue to reach new record highs.
This metric provides insights into the supply’s stagnancy and includes BTC that is likely to be inaccessible indefinitely, such as when owners lose access to their wallets.
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Currently, the Hodled or Lost Coins segment accounts for 7.77 million BTC, equivalent to approximately $233 billion.
This represents the highest tally in the past five years.
Previous estimates have suggested that around 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million units may already be permanently locked from circulation.
In summary, the on-chain data indicates that the $30,000 level is the most popular “buy” level for Bitcoin, with a significant number of transactions occurring at this price.
Additionally, long-term holders are reluctant to sell their BTC, resulting in a stagnant supply. These insights provide valuable information for market participants and suggest that a significant price movement may be on the horizon.
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The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has started reviewing BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), one day after acknowledging Bitwise’s similar submission.
This preliminary step marks the SEC’s readiness to evaluate the feasibility and market impact of a Bitcoin spot ETF, despite being the first phase of a complex regulatory process.
Exchange-traded funds or ETFs are investment products that often track specific indexes, and in the crypto context, they replicate the value of one or more digital assets and comprise a range of cryptocurrencies.
The SEC stated on July 14 that it’s reviewing multiple fund applications, including those from Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree, VanEck, and Invesco Galaxy.
The financial industry considers BlackRock’s move to apply for a Bitcoin spot ETF noteworthy, given its market standing.
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The application includes an agreement for surveillance-sharing with Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange.
The ongoing competition to debut a Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is viewed positively in the crypto sector.
With several applications in progress, the likelihood of approval increases, as the SEC can evaluate diverse strategies and considerations.
Despite the developments, the SEC has not yet approved a Bitcoin spot ETF within the U.S. Meanwhile, Canada has already greenlit this type of financial product.
Purpose Bitcoin, 3iQ CoinShares, and CI Galaxy Bitcoin are three substantial funds that have received regulatory approval in Canada.
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Binance, a popular cryptocurrency exchange, has successfully integrated the Bitcoin Lightning Network into its platform, enabling users to make BTC withdrawals and deposits using this layer-2 scaling solution.
In a blog post on July 17, Binance confirmed the development and highlighted the availability of the Lightning Network option for Bitcoin transactions, alongside other choices such as BNB Smart Chain, BNB Beacon Chain, BTC (SegWit), and Ethereum ERC-20.
The decision to integrate the Lightning Network came after Binance temporarily halted BTC withdrawals in May due to a surge in pending transactions caused by high network gas fees.
These fees were primarily driven by the emergence of memecoins in the form of BRC-20 tokens, which introduced a new token standard on the Bitcoin network.
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The integration of the Lightning Network was first hinted at by Binance in May, but it was officially announced on June 20 when users noticed Binance’s Lightning nodes.
Binance now joins the ranks of other prominent exchanges such as Bitfinex, River Financial, OKX, Kraken, and CoinCorner that have embraced this layer-2 scaling solution.
In April, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed his intention to integrate the Bitcoin layer 2 network on Coinbase, but no specific timeline was provided.
The Lightning Network is designed to enhance the speed and cost-effectiveness of Bitcoin transactions by enabling users to establish off-chain transaction channels.
With the Lightning Network integration, Binance aims to provide its users with a more efficient and seamless experience when conducting Bitcoin transactions.
By leveraging this layer-2 scaling solution, users can enjoy faster and more cost-effective transfers, thereby addressing the challenges posed by high transaction fees and network congestion.
As the cryptocurrency industry continues to evolve, the adoption of technologies like the Lightning Network represents an important step towards improving the scalability and usability of cryptocurrencies.
The integration of this solution by Binance and other leading exchanges underscores the growing recognition of the Lightning Network’s potential to enhance the efficiency and accessibility of Bitcoin transactions, ultimately benefiting users across the ecosystem.
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