Bitcoin (BTC) faced a tumultuous day in the cryptocurrency market, with its ticker symbol, BTC, declining sharply to $42,882.
This drop of over $1,300, equivalent to 3.2%, occurred on the heels of a brief recovery from recent volatility. Bitcoin struggled to maintain its position above $43,000 as the bulls failed to gain momentum.
The decline in BTC’s price coincided with news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had rejected a request from major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to revise the rules governing crypto.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler expressed his support for the Commission’s decision, emphasizing that existing laws and regulations apply to the cryptocurrency securities market.
He also stressed the importance of maintaining the Commission’s discretion in setting its own rulemaking priorities.
The SEC’s involvement in the crypto market has been closely watched, especially with expectations that it will approve the first U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in early 2024.
Gensler clarified that the SEC’s actions are based on its authorities and how courts interpret those authorities.
Analyzing the order books, traders noticed an increase in bid support around the $41,000 level, which became a point of interest.
There was also active supply noted around the $44,000 mark, suggesting a key resistance zone.
On the technical side, the four-hour exponential moving averages (EMAs) were once again in play, with the price contesting these levels and the relative strength index (RSI) dipping below 50.
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This setup indicated an impending crucial close in the price action.
Zooming out to a broader perspective, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, observed an ongoing struggle to turn a significant weekly level into support.
This challenge centered around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line near $42,500, which represented one of the critical hurdles on the path to revisiting the all-time high of $69,000.
Material Indicators also reported that large-volume traders were showing increased buying activity at the time, suggesting that “Mega Whales” were trying to reclaim the $42,000 price level.
This battle between buyers and sellers indicated the potential for further price volatility in the Bitcoin market.
In summary, Bitcoin faced a downward correction below $43,000, influenced by the SEC’s decision regarding Coinbase’s rule request.
The cryptocurrency market remained dynamic, with traders closely monitoring key support and resistance levels, as well as the actions of significant market players.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has entered into a fresh round of discussions with asset management firms regarding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S.
These discussions included officials from the office of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, signifying a notable development in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency investments.
According to official court filings, on December 14th, the SEC held a meeting with representatives from BlackRock to deliberate over the proposed rule change that would permit the trading of a crypto investment vehicle on major U.S. exchanges.
This marks the third meeting between BlackRock and the SEC, underlining the growing interest and anticipation surrounding this potential approval. ETF analyst Jayme Seyffart from Bloomberg highlighted the significance of these discussions.
In recent weeks, meetings between asset managers and the SEC have intensified. On December 8th, Grayscale and Franklin Templeton also engaged in discussions with regulators regarding their respective ETF applications. Fidelity had a similar meeting a day earlier.
The most recent meeting on December 14th between BlackRock and the SEC, which involved Gensler’s office, underscores the high stakes involved.
In late November, Chair Gensler’s staff met with representatives from Hashdex to address concerns related to market manipulation and investor protection.
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Key topics of discussion included the use of cash creations and redemptions, as well as the acquisition of spot Bitcoin from physical exchanges within the Chicago Mercantile Exchange market.
Several prominent asset managers, including WisdomTree, BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and Grayscale, are actively working towards launching spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Historically, the SEC has denied similar proposals, but it now appears to be deferring its next decisions until early January, coinciding with the expiration of most applicants’ latest deadlines.
If approved, a spot Bitcoin ETF would enable Bitcoin to be traded on major Wall Street exchanges, making it accessible to a wider audience of investors backed by some of the world’s most influential investment firms.
Conversely, if denied, investment managers are likely to appeal the decision, further prolonging the wait.
It’s important to note the distinction between spot Bitcoin ETFs and futures Bitcoin ETFs.
The former directly tracks the real-time market price of Bitcoin, holding actual Bitcoin, while the latter invests in Bitcoin futures contracts, which are agreements based on the future price of Bitcoin.
The SEC approved the first futures Bitcoin ETF in 2021, and now the focus has shifted to spot Bitcoin ETFs as the industry eagerly awaits regulatory clarity.
First Trust, a prominent financial services firm, has made a notable move in the cryptocurrency space by filing for a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF).
However, this ETF is not the typical spot ETF that tracks the performance of Bitcoin directly. On December 14,
First Trust submitted a Form N1-A filing to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the launch of the First Trust Bitcoin Buffer ETF.
The primary objective of the First Trust Bitcoin Buffer ETF, as outlined in its prospectus, is to participate in the positive price returns of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust or another exchange-traded product (ETP) that offers exposure to Bitcoin’s performance.
Unlike a spot Bitcoin ETF, which directly follows Bitcoin’s price movements, a buffer ETF employs options to achieve a predefined investment outcome.
Buffer ETFs, often referred to as “defined-outcome ETFs,” are designed to safeguard investors from losses in the event of market declines.
They accomplish this by setting a limit or buffer on a stock’s growth over a specified period, utilizing options to ensure a particular investment outcome and deliver a targeted level of protection against market downturns.
James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, commented on the First Trust Bitcoin Buffer ETF, highlighting that such funds protect against a predetermined percentage of downside losses while capping potential gains.
He also anticipated the emergence of other unique strategies offering Bitcoin exposure in the coming weeks.
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The First Trust Bitcoin Buffer ETF represents one of the initial filings of its kind with the U.S. SEC.
At the time of writing, there are 139 buffer ETFs actively traded in the U.S. market, with total assets under management totaling $32.54 billion.
Buffer ETFs are available across various asset classes, including equities, commodities, and fixed income.
In recent years, buffer ETFs have gained significant popularity, with industry leader BlackRock introducing its first iShares buffer ETFs in June 2023.
These new products, namely the iShares Large Cap Moderate Buffer ETF (IVVM) and the iShares Large Cap Deep Buffer ETF (IVVB), have shown returns of around 5% and 2%, respectively, since their launch, according to TradingView data.
It’s important to note that despite their protective mechanisms, buffer ETFs do not guarantee complete safeguarding of investments.
Investors should be aware that there is a risk of losing some or all of their capital when investing in these funds.
Both First Trust and BlackRock acknowledge that buffer ETFs may not be suitable for all investors and do not provide principal or non-principal protection, meaning investors could still incur losses up to the entire amount of their investment.
Bitcoin could be on the verge of a bullish run in the coming weeks and beyond, thanks to shifting macroeconomic dynamics.
Popular trader Crypto Ed, the founder of CryptoTA trading group, recently noted a potential decline in the strength of the United States dollar (USD), which historically has had an inverse relationship with Bitcoin.
Recent changes in U.S. macroeconomic policy are expected to bolster Bitcoin’s prospects while exerting downward pressure on the USD.
Analysts have been optimistic about the cryptocurrency market’s performance in 2024, citing a combination of favorable macroeconomic data and encouraging signals from the Federal Reserve.
The decline in inflation is seen as a factor that could allow the Federal Reserve to reconsider its stance on interest rate hikes, leading to increased liquidity in the markets, particularly benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
Unfortunately, the USD is not set to benefit from this shift and has experienced a significant drop this week due to the impact of monetary tightening on inflation.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen over 2% since the beginning of the week, currently hovering below $102, marking its lowest level since mid-August.
Crypto Ed shared his optimism for Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, anticipating that a weakening DXY could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs, possibly reaching $92 for DXY.
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In a chart analysis, key levels to watch on the DXY in three-day timeframes were highlighted.
Economist Lyn Alden offered her perspective on the liquidity situation, noting that while global liquidity indicators had experienced some stagnation, a recent dovish stance by the Federal Reserve and the drop in the DXY might provide a boost to liquidity.
Alden also highlighted a market repricing scenario, with markets starting to factor in the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 2024.
Data from the Federal Reserve itself revealed an increase in its balance sheet for the first time since August, rising by approximately $2 billion in December.
As of December 15th, BTC/USD was trading at $42,700, showing relative stability after a brief period of volatility the previous day.
Bitcoin had posted a 13% gain for December, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
With a weakening dollar and changing macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin enthusiasts are hopeful for new all-time highs in the near future.
United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler has suggested a potential shift in the regulator’s approach to Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) following a recent legal decision involving Grayscale.
During an interview with CNBC on December 14, Gensler addressed the numerous pending applications for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs, revealing that the SEC is currently processing “between eight and a dozen filings.”
Gensler acknowledged that the SEC had previously rejected several of these applications but indicated a potential change in their stance, stating, “So we’re taking a new look at this based upon those court rulings.”
When asked directly if he was referring to Grayscale, Gensler avoided providing a specific answer, emphasizing that the SEC operates within the framework of laws enacted by Congress and how the courts interpret them.
The SEC’s decision to deny an ETF offering from Grayscale Investments, involving its Bitcoin trust, was overturned by a federal judge in August.
Subsequently, major asset management firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Invesco, Galaxy, VanEck, and Valkyrie have entered the race to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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Although these applications have faced delays, some analysts anticipate a potential batch approval in early January 2024.
In another interview with Bloomberg’s Kailey Leinz on the same day, Gensler avoided disclosing the number of spot Bitcoin product filings.
Instead, he highlighted recent developments in the U.S. treasury market as the agency’s current priority.
U.S. Representative Bryan Steil commented on Twitter, criticizing Gensler’s handling of the crypto-related questions:
“Chair Gary Gensler obfuscates on crypto with the press like he does at committee hearings. He does not want to explain his agency’s aggressive regulatory approach which is pushing crypto offshore.”
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart also remarked, “Gensler very rarely gives clear answers! He’s a master at hedging his words.”
In summary, SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s recent comments have raised speculation about a potential shift in the SEC’s approach to Bitcoin exchange-traded products, following recent court decisions.
This comes as several major asset managers seek approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs, though the regulatory landscape remains uncertain.
As Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers work on their filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator is standing firm in its demand for a “cash” redemption model instead of alternatives proposed by issuers like BlackRock.
On December 14, finance lawyer Scott Johnsson revealed that ETF applicants Invesco and Galaxy have now adopted a cash creation and redemption model for their ETFs.
Their updated S-1 filing with the SEC stated, “The trust expects that creation and redemption transactions will take place initially in cash.”
The SEC has been advocating for a cash redemption model for spot Bitcoin ETFs, while some applicants, including BlackRock, have suggested an “in-kind” model.
So, what’s the difference? A cash creation model involves authorized participants depositing cash equivalent to the net asset value of the creation units.
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The fund uses this cash to purchase the underlying asset, such as Bitcoin. In contrast, the in-kind creation model involves participants depositing a basket of securities that match the ETF’s portfolio, allowing the fund to issue creation units without immediately selling the securities for cash.
The cash model may result in slightly wider spreads and potential tax inefficiencies but offers greater flexibility for fund participants.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes the latest filing indicates the SEC’s determination to allow only cash-created ETFs initially.
He mentioned that many were waiting to see if BlackRock could persuade the regulator to consider in-kind creation, but analyst Seyffart suggests that most issuers may eventually adopt the cash creation and redemption model.
In late November, BlackRock met with the SEC to discuss ETF share creation and redemption mechanisms, presenting a revised hybrid in-kind model that favored this method over cash creations.
Bitwise has also shifted towards cash-only creation and redemption since December 4, despite initially having both in-kind and cash options in their documents.
The SEC recently delayed its decision on approving a spot Ether ETF for Invesco and Galaxy Digital.
Representatives from asset managers like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity have been meeting with the SEC to finalize details for their spot BTC products, with analysts anticipating batch approvals in early January.
Bitcoin is on the verge of reaching an unprecedented milestone, as Bitwise, a senior research analyst, predicts that the cryptocurrency will achieve a new all-time high of $80,000 in 2024.
This bullish projection is part of a larger set of predictions for the crypto industry in 2024, as outlined by Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 13.
One of the standout trends in these predictions is the remarkable growth of the stablecoin industry. Bitwise anticipates that stablecoins will soon surpass Visa’s payment volume, recognizing these dollar and asset-pegged tokens as one of crypto’s most significant innovations.
By the third quarter of 2023, Visa had processed over $9 trillion in payments, while stablecoin trading volume had already exceeded $5 trillion.
Rasmussen highlighted the remarkable rise of stablecoins, with their market capitalization growing from nearly nothing to a staggering $137 billion within just four years.
Given this trajectory, he expects stablecoins in 2024 to continue expanding in both trading volume and utility.
Bitwise’s optimism regarding stablecoins is not unique, as Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire also expressed confidence in their growing demand.
Allaire noted the increasing appetite for internet-enabled digital dollars, emphasizing the need for such a secure and accessible digital currency.
Furthermore, asset manager Van Eck predicts that the total stablecoin market capitalization will reach $200 billion by the end of 2024.
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Rasmussen also foresees a prosperous year ahead for Bitcoin, projecting a price exceeding $80,000 in 2024.
He attributes this optimism to the anticipated launch of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the upcoming halving event in April, both of which are expected to drive significant price growth.
However, Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 vary widely among analysts and experts.
Some anticipate an average price of at least $100,000, while others set targets as high as $250,000 or even $1 million.
Bitwise speculates that not only will the spot Bitcoin ETF be approved, but its launch will be the most successful ETF launch in history, amassing $72 billion in assets under management within the next five years.
Bitwise is among 13 financial institutions seeking approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum is poised for substantial improvements in 2024, with Bitwise expecting a 100% increase in revenue to $5 billion.
This prediction hinges on the EIP-4484 upgrade, which could reduce gas costs on the Ethereum network to below $0.01.
Beyond crypto assets, Coinbase is predicted to thrive during the anticipated bull market of 2024, with Bitwise forecasting a remarkable 100% growth in revenue for the exchange platform, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations tenfold.
Bitcoin is showing promising signs of a new bull run, with daily gains of 7% driving its price higher. This surge in price follows a brief sell-off, and on-chain metrics suggest that the upward momentum may continue.
After reaching $44,000 earlier in the month, Bitcoin experienced a cooling-off period, dropping to nearly $40,000. However, conditions have since improved.
Philip Swift, the creator of Look Into Bitcoin, pointed out on December 13 that profit-taking has increased as BTC/USD reached its highest levels in 19 months.
He highlighted the “Value Days Destroyed” (VDD) metric, which measures Bitcoin selling activity based on the age of the coins being sold and the current BTC price.
On December 11, VDD reached its highest level since May 2021, indicating that some long-term holders (HODL’ers) are taking profits.
Recent selling activity has been driven by short-term holders (STHs), who are typically more speculative in their trading approach.
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Meanwhile, analysts see potential for Bitcoin’s price to continue rising towards the key resistance level around $50,000.
Matthew Hyland, an analyst, pointed to the relative strength index (RSI) on daily timeframes, which has displayed a bullish divergence with price, indicating potential upward movement.
Additionally, there is a notable influx of capital into both Bitcoin and Ethereum, reminiscent of late 2020 when Bitcoin first broke the $20,000 mark and entered a phase of price discovery.
This renewed interest from investors suggests confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
Social media commentator Ali expressed optimism about the current market conditions, echoing the sentiment that significant capital inflows are returning to both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Others share this bullish outlook, with BitQuant emphasizing that Bitcoin could break through the $42,000 to $45,000 channel by the end of the coming week, with no strong resistances in sight until the $63,000 mark.
In summary, Bitcoin is showing signs of a robust bull run, with on-chain metrics, profit-taking, and increased capital inflows contributing to its recent price surge.
Analysts and commentators are optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s potential to continue its upward trajectory, with key resistance levels in focus as Bitcoin aims for new all-time highs.
Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales stirred up controversy when he took to X (formerly Twitter) on December 11 to mock Bitcoin, proudly stating that he has never lost money due to forgetting his bank password, unlike some Bitcoin users who have lost access to their wallets.
However, his comments did not sit well with the broader Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community, who swiftly responded to his remarks.
In his sarcastic X post, Wales facetiously claimed to have forgotten his bank password and subsequently lost all his cash.
He then proceeded to taunt the Bitcoin community, asserting that this scenario would never happen with banks because they function reliably, unlike Bitcoin.
Wales’ remarks were met with criticism from the Bitcoin community, who reminded him that while traditional banks may indeed be reliable for some, they are not accessible to everyone worldwide.
Alex Gladstein, the Chief Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation, highlighted that banks primarily function effectively in countries with a strong rule of law and stable currencies, and only about one billion people out of the world’s eight billion population have access to banking services.
Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, emphasized that even those with bank accounts are not immune to financial hardships.
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She cited the example of a Lebanese doctor who lost 95% of their savings due to hyperinflation, highlighting the vulnerability of traditional financial systems.
Bitcoin proponents, including Samson Mow, seized the opportunity to point out the irony of Wales’ comments, given Wikipedia’s dependence on donations to sustain its operations.
Mow suggested that if Wikipedia had invested in Bitcoin as he had recommended a few years ago, they might not have to rely on continuous fundraising.
Some in the Bitcoin community drew attention to the centralized nature of the banking system, reiterating that it does not cater to the needs of everyone.
Danny Scott, CEO of Bitcoin exchange Coin Corner, argued that Wales was comparing two different scenarios and likened the situation more to a user forgetting their password for a Bitcoin exchange, which can be reset, rather than a true loss of funds.
He emphasized that losing physical cash, just like Bitcoin, results in irreversible loss.
BlackRock has made a significant alteration to its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) application, aiming to facilitate participation by major Wall Street banks.
This change involves the creation of new fund shares using cash, rather than relying solely on cryptocurrency assets.
The innovative “in-kind redemption prepay” model is designed to enable banking giants like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to become authorized participants in the fund.
This would allow them to bypass restrictions that currently prohibit them from directly holding Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets.
This transformative model was presented jointly by six members of BlackRock and three from Nasdaq during a meeting held on November 28th with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
If granted approval, this development could prove to be a game-changer for Wall Street institutions with trillion-dollar balance sheets, as it opens up a new avenue for their involvement.
Many highly regulated banks are presently barred from directly holding cryptocurrencies.
Under the revised model, authorized participants (APs) would transfer cash to a broker-dealer, which would then convert it into Bitcoin before entrusting it to the ETF’s custody provider, Coinbase Custody in BlackRock’s case.
This arrangement also effectively shifts risk away from APs and places it more in the hands of market makers.
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Furthermore, BlackRock asserts that this new model enhances resistance to market manipulation, which has previously been a key factor in the SEC’s rejection of spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
Additionally, BlackRock contends that the new ETF structure will bolster investor protections, reduce transaction costs, and promote simplicity and consistency within the broader Bitcoin ETF ecosystem.
According to a filing with the SEC, BlackRock had its third meeting with the SEC, led by Gary Gensler, on December 11.
Notably, this meeting on November 28 with the SEC was a follow-up to an initial meeting held on November 20, where BlackRock introduced its original in-kind redemption model.
The SEC is obligated to make a decision on BlackRock’s application by January 15, with the final deadline set for March 15.
In the meantime, ETF analysts anticipate that the SEC will issue decisions on several pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications sometime between January 5 and 10.
Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Fidelity, and Hashdex are among the other financial firms eagerly awaiting the SEC’s decisions during this period.