Bitcoin is in the midst of a recovery journey after enduring a “black swan” event reminiscent of the turbulent days of the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, according to recent data.
On September 7, CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform, brought attention to a significant surge in loss-making unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), revealing a curious tale of Bitcoin activity “under the hood.”
UTXOs signify the remaining BTC following an on-chain transaction, and CryptoQuant’s “UTXOs in Loss” metric tracks instances where these UTXOs are currently worth less than their original acquisition price.
The data shows that more UTXOs are currently in a loss position compared to their initial purchase price than at any point since March 2020.
Back then, the BTC/USD price plummeted by a staggering 60%, reaching its lowest levels since March 2019, which it never revisited.
Drawing parallels with March 2020, CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu suggested that Bitcoin may be experiencing, or even recovering from, a surprise selling event, akin to a “black swan.”
He stated that those anticipating another “black swan” event should contemplate whether it is already unfolding.
In terms of percentages, 38% of UTXOs were in a loss position at the close of August, a level not witnessed since April 2020.
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Woominkyu explained that when numerous UTXOs are in a loss position, it can indicate heightened market anxiety, potentially prompting more investors to sell.
Conversely, when most UTXOs are profitable, it suggests optimism and stronger investor sentiment.
Bitcoin, however, remains ensnared in a narrow trading range, with no clear trend emerging in its price.
The cost basis data reveals that the current spot price is hovering between the acquisition prices of different investor cohorts.
The “Realized Price,” which is calculated as the price at which the supply was last moved divided by age group, shows that short-term holders face losses when BTC/USD dips below approximately $27,000.
Nevertheless, a complete capitulation event has yet to manifest on-chain.
In conclusion, despite the recent turbulence in Bitcoin’s UTXOs and price activity, the crypto market is witnessing intriguing dynamics reminiscent of the “black swan” event of March 2020, leaving market participants pondering the future trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency.
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In August, Riot Platforms, a prominent Bitcoin miner, recorded a slightly reduced Bitcoin mining output compared to July.
However, the month proved exceptionally lucrative for the company, as it received an impressive $31 million in power credits.
To put this into perspective, Riot’s CEO, Jason Les, emphasized that this sum equates to approximately 1,136 Bitcoin.
A significant portion of these credits, estimated at $24.2 million, stemmed from Riot’s contract with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s grid operator.
Additionally, another $7.4 million was accrued through participation in ERCOT’s demand response program.
Remarkably, these monthly credits surpassed the total credits received by Riot throughout the entire year of 2022.
Riot’s power strategy, as outlined in a presentation released on September 6th, hinges on its long-term ERCOT contract.
It operates through three core mechanisms, all intricately linked to this contract.
The first involves receiving power credits when the company temporarily curtails its operations, returning excess electricity to ERCOT during periods of unprofitable mining due to high electricity prices.
The second mechanism revolves around demand and response credits, earned by competitively offering ERCOT the option to control Riot’s electrical load, irrespective of whether the grid operator exercises this option.
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Jason Les emphasized that these credits play a pivotal role in significantly reducing Riot’s Bitcoin mining costs, positioning the company as one of the most cost-effective producers in the industry.
This strategic approach to power management stands as a key competitive advantage for Riot Platforms.
The backdrop for Riot’s financial success in August was Texas’ extreme weather conditions, marked by unusually high temperatures.
Riot’s presentation noted the unique ability of Bitcoin mining to lower energy consumption and provide support to the grid during periods of high demand stress.
While Riot Platforms incurred a loss of $27.7 million in the second quarter of the current year, it represents a substantial improvement over the same period last year when the company faced a staggering loss of $353.6 million during the crypto winter of Q2 2022.
In light of these developments, Riot has ambitious plans to install thousands of new miners in anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, further solidifying its position in the cryptocurrency mining industry.
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Bitcoin’s recent bullish momentum appears to be losing steam, as shifts in liquidity on the Binance exchange signal potential volatility ahead, according to a recent analysis by Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, a monitoring resource.
While Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable over the weekend, data from Binance’s BTC/USD order book reveals concerning changes in liquidity.
The bid support has shifted downward, concentrating around the $24,600 mark—a level not observed in spot markets since March.
What’s particularly worrisome is that the largest concentrations of BTC bid liquidity have moved below the previously established Lower Low at the bottom of the range.
BTC/USD experienced its lowest post-March dip in mid-June, reaching $24,750 before bouncing back, as confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Keith Alan anticipates a similar bounce from the current spot levels before any downside pressure resumes.
However, he also expects a breakdown in price from a macro perspective, indicating that bullish momentum and sentiment are waning.
Although bears have not yet gained complete control, there is no clear dominance on either side of the market.
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This shift does not necessarily signify a surge in bearish momentum but rather hints at fading bullish sentiment. Keith Alan expressed skepticism about buy walls persisting without being filled.
Previously, Keith Alan had identified $24,750 as a crucial level for bulls to maintain to protect Bitcoin’s broader price uptrend.
Other traders in the cryptocurrency space also expect increased volatility in the near future.
Skew, a popular trader, pointed to activity in derivatives markets as a sign of impending turbulence.
Meanwhile, Credible Crypto, known for his optimistic BTC price outlook, hoped that any potential downside would be limited to the high $24,000 range.
He emphasized the importance of maintaining the higher timeframe low at $24.8k, suggesting that a reversal to fill the inefficiency above that level could follow.
In summary, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum appears to be fading as liquidity shifts on Binance signal potential volatility ahead.
While some traders anticipate a short-term bounce, the overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with both bullish and bearish forces at play.
The coming days will likely reveal whether Bitcoin can maintain its price uptrend or experience a more significant correction.
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In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, Senator Andrew Bragg has issued a stark warning, stating that Australian investors could face exposure to unregulated markets and risk driving investments away from the country if the Digital Assets (Market Regulation) Bill is rejected by parliament.
This caution comes in the wake of the Senate Committee on Economics Legislation’s recommendation on September 4th to reject Bragg’s bill and continue industry consultations regarding cryptocurrency regulation.
Labor Party Senator Jess Walsh, who chairs the Committee, explained the rejection in a report, citing concerns that the bill “fails to interoperate with the established regulatory landscape, creating a genuine concern for regulatory arbitrage and adverse outcomes to the industry.”
Senator Bragg expressed his disappointment with the Committee’s recommendation, emphasizing that it would “expose consumers to an unregulated market and drive investment offshore.”
He underscored the dual purpose of digital asset regulations, asserting that they safeguard consumers while also fostering market investment and activity, which is why the former Liberal government placed them on the legislative agenda in October 2021.
Bragg believes that the rejection of his bill is largely rooted in partisan politics, as several Labor Party members sit on the Senate Committee.
He criticized their decision for stalling the implementation of digital asset regulations in Australia, lamenting that Australia is now approaching the end of 2023 with no plan to enact these regulations.
However, Liam Hennessey, a partner at international law firm Clyde & Co., offered a different perspective.
He suggested that the rejection may be more related to a separate regulatory process, specifically the Treasury’s consultation paper on the government’s “token mapping” exercise.
Hennessey emphasized that the rejection of Bragg’s draft bill may not necessarily be detrimental to crypto regulation in Australia.
Hennessey explained that Senator Bragg’s bill and the feedback it received from the industry would still be considered.
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The Senate is currently dealing with a multitude of legislation, and the delay should not be overanalyzed.
He concluded that Bragg’s bill and the effort put into it would inform the government’s approach to crypto regulation.
The Australian government initiated a token mapping exercise in August, aiming to identify how crypto assets and related services should be regulated.
In February, the Treasury released a public consultation paper as a foundational step in regulating the digital asset market.
However, there has been little mention of digital assets or the broader regulatory approach since then.
Bragg introduced the Digital Assets (Market Regulation) Bill 2023 in March, intending to protect consumers and promote investors.
The bill contains recommendations for regulating stablecoins, licensing exchanges, and establishing custody requirements.
It is currently before the Senate and is expected to be voted on during the next sitting session.
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Bitcoin’s Price Correction to $22,000 Grows Likely as Bearish Signals Emerge in Derivatives
The likelihood of a Bitcoin price correction descending to $22,000 is growing, driven by emerging bearish signals within BTC derivatives.
Examining the Bitcoin price chart underscores a decline in investor sentiment, attributed to Grayscale’s legal triumph against the SEC on August 29 and subsequent delays in spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications.
Crucially, the question at hand is whether the potential for an ETF can outweigh escalating risks.
By August 18, the entire 19% post-BlackRock ETF filing rally had reversed, with Bitcoin regressing to $26,000.
Efforts to reclaim the $28,000 support faltered as optimism for an ETF approval rose following Grayscale’s favorable Bitcoin trust request.
Cryptocurrency investor morale waned as the S&P 500 closed at 4,515 on September 1, only 6.3% below its January 2022 peak.
Similarly, gold, unable to surpass $2,000 since mid-May, sits 6.5% from its all-time high, dampening Bitcoin investor sentiment months ahead of the 2024 halving.
Analysts attribute Bitcoin’s lackluster performance to regulatory actions against Binance and Coinbase, alongside speculation of a potential U.S. Department of Justice indictment against Binance for money laundering and sanctions breaches.
According to Pentoshi, potential gains from a spot ETF approval eclipse the price impact of regulatory actions against exchanges.
Yet, this analysis disregards decreased U.S. inflation (3.2% in July 2023 from 9.1% in June 2022) and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity reduction, unfavorable to Bitcoin’s inflation protection thesis.
Though Bitcoin clings to $25,000 since mid-March, derivatives data suggests testing bulls’ conviction.
Typically, Bitcoin monthly futures trade slightly above spot markets, indicating sellers demand more to delay settlement.
Presently, a 3.5% futures premium is the lowest since mid-June, pre-BlackRock’s ETF filing, revealing reduced demand for leverage buyers via derivatives.
Options markets also offer insights into investor optimism post-correction.
A bearish tone emerges, with protective put options trading at a 9% premium on September 4, contrasting similar call options.
The increasing bearish momentum in Bitcoin derivatives data, coupled with potential spot ETF approval delays until 2024 due to SEC concerns, tips the regulatory landscape in favor of bears.
The looming uncertainty surrounding potential DOJ actions and ongoing SEC lawsuits against exchanges exacerbates the situation.
In conclusion, considering the inability to sustain a positive price momentum despite elevated odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, a retracement to $22,000 appears probable.
This echoes the price level observed when Bitcoin’s futures premium was 3.5%.
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Micro Bitcoin mining devices, despite their limited performance, are being positioned by their creators as a countermeasure against what they perceive as the predominant flaw in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
These compact devices, often open-source and conveniently sized to fit in a pocket, have carved out a niche within the market by providing users with options to either purchase fully assembled units or acquire do-it-yourself kits for individual Bitcoin mining endeavors.
While the developers behind these micro mining kits acknowledge that substantial profits are unlikely, they emphasize the significance of challenging the perceived “secrecy and exclusivity” that characterizes the Bitcoin mining industry.
BitMaker, a notable company in this realm, recently asserted that manufacturing a micro mining device could cost as little as $3, delivering a throughput of 50 kilohashes per second.
BitMaker’s spokesperson, reflecting on their involvement in micro mining since June 2022, drew attention to a key distinction between mainstream Bitcoin ASIC mining rigs and the open-source nature of Bitcoin’s underlying code.
This difference, they argued, has led to a situation where commercialized entities control the production and distribution of Bitcoin mining hardware, fostering a lack of transparency.
Data reveals that a significant portion of the Bitcoin hash rate originates from the United States (35.4%), followed by Kazakhstan (18.1%), Russia (11.2%), and Canada (9.6%).
Leading mining companies such as Marathon Digital and Riot Blockchain, based in the U.S., along with Bitdeer Technologies Group from Singapore, dominate the global mining landscape.
Skot, an individual involved in crafting Bitaxe miners, echoed similar sentiments regarding the importance of open-sourcing designs to introduce much-needed transparency into the mining industry.
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The traditional aura of secrecy surrounding mining is being dismantled by these open-source initiatives, allowing greater visibility and accessibility for the general public.
Bitaxe representatives emphasized that by sharing documents detailing the construction of hashboards and mining equipment, they enable interested parties to independently build their miners.
This contributes, albeit in a limited manner, to the decentralization of the system.
It’s understood, however, that immediate substantial Bitcoin gains are not the primary focus for buyers.
Skot indicated that while efforts are being directed towards enhancing the efficiency of these miners, the primary purpose is educational, communal, and centered on understanding the technology.
Importantly, Skot highlighted that these portable miners are not aimed at competing with established players in the commercial sphere.
Instead, they offer an avenue for individuals to engage in home-based mining without investing in cumbersome, costly, and heat-intensive setups.
Additional miniature Bitcoin miners in the market include the Bitmain AntRouter and Mars Lander. Meanwhile, innovators are also exploring unconventional methods such as mobile phone-based Bitcoin mining.
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Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, recently shared an encouraging perspective on the convergence of Bitcoin and artificial intelligence (AI) through an X (previously Twitter) post.
She accentuated the revolutionary potential that arises from integrating AI with Bitcoin, underscoring the boundless prospects and positive impacts they can impart on various sectors and the broader economy.
This upbeat sentiment is corroborated by an ARK Invest research report named “Investing In Artificial Intelligence: Where Will Equity Values Surface?”.
This paper reveals that both Wood and ARK Invest are keenly assessing AI’s value in investment frameworks.
Wood’s investment history reflects her confidence in AI. She has consistently channelled funds into AI-centric stocks over the years, showcasing her commitment to this emergent technology.
Moreover, Wood’s fervor for Bitcoin is unmistakable.
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This is showcased by ARK’s pursuits related to a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). ARK’s acumen in digital assets is further manifested by their considerable investments in platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood.
Highlighting ARK Invest’s successful strategies, their investments in AI tech stocks have borne fruit.
The ARK Disruptive Innovation ETF, which is centered on AI and other groundbreaking technologies, has surpassed the Nasdaq 100 Index, registering an impressive mid-year gain of 41.2%.
Wood’s commentary, complemented by ARK’s insightful research, underscores AI’s escalating prominence in the investment domain.
The amalgamation of Bitcoin and AI is poised to instigate a seismic shift in corporate functionalities, possibly revolutionizing productivity and cost structures.
With investors continually scouting for novel growth trajectories, the interplay of Bitcoin and AI, championed by Wood, could witness heightened investment interest in the coming times.
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Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week below the $26,000 mark on Sep. 3, despite a dismissive stance on overly pessimistic trader sentiment by analysts.
Data derived from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed that BTC exhibited minimal volatility over the weekend, maintaining a narrow range of $200.
The lack of definitive direction led to a feeling of déjà vu among market participants, reminiscent of the behavior observed during the previous month’s August closing.
The effects of two major volatility-inducing events from the previous week, involving Grayscale, a crypto asset manager, and regulators in the United States, were wiped clean from the charts. Consequently, traders evaluated the potential implications of different levels of weekly closure.
Prominent trader Skew offered insight into the market structure by highlighting the absence of a candle body closure below the Higher Low (HL) established in June, or below the $25.9K mark.
He stressed the significance of this point, suggesting that a 1-week closure below and subsequent price resistance in this range could lead to a downward move towards the prior 1-week resistance at approximately $24.3K.
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Looking ahead, Skew presented a “bearish scenario” that could bring about levels below $20,000.
Conversely, he expressed skepticism regarding a bullish revival that would involve reclaiming the $26,000 level and maintaining a higher low into the fourth quarter of the year.
Summarizing the events of the previous week, Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, advised against making definitive judgments on Bitcoin’s bullish or bearish nature.
He acknowledged the recent volatility resulting from Grayscale’s legal victory over the SEC and the SEC’s decision to delay judgment on the first U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Alan contended that despite these external events, the fundamental structure of the Bitcoin market remained unaltered.
He emphasized that neither a confirmed breakout nor a breakdown had occurred from a technical perspective, citing $24,750 as the crucial support zone to monitor.
A chart accompanying his analysis depicted the BTC/USD order book on Binance, showing increased buy liquidity just below the spot price at the $24,750 zone of interest.
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Warren Buffett, the celebrated investor and Berkshire Hathaway’s chairman, marked his 93rd birthday on Aug. 30. Over his extensive career, he’s adhered to a value investing strategy akin to the “buy and hold” approach seen with cryptocurrencies.
However, Buffett’s focus lies in assets with robust earnings potential, investing in sectors where he and his team possess in-depth insights into associated risks, competition, and advantages.
The question arises whether such a focused strategy can surpass Bitcoin’s performance in the long term.
Additionally, it’s worth pondering why one of the greatest stock pickers, Buffett, currently holds significant cash and short-term bonds as the second-largest position in his portfolio.
A notable instance of his approach is Berkshire Hathaway’s top holding, Apple (AAPL) shares. Despite acquiring them in 2016 when Apple was valued at over $500 billion, far from being an early investor, Berkshire Hathaway continued adding to its AAPL investment in 2022, despite the stock rallying over 500% since the initial purchase.
This showcases Buffett’s dedication to long-term investment strategies, regardless of recent price fluctuations.
In a February 2012 shareholder letter, Berkshire Hathaway expressed concerns about currency devaluation and the limitations of gold as a store of value.
It argued that gold lacks practical utility, with demand falling short of production for industrial and jewelry purposes.
Gold’s price primarily relies on fear-based sentiment, leading to temporary price spikes. Conversely, investments in productive companies generate substantial returns.
Unfortunately for Buffett, Bitcoin’s price surged by 683% in the year following his skeptical comments on nonproductive commodities’ value storage potential. Over four years, Bitcoin’s gains reached a staggering 9,014%.
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To compare Berkshire Hathaway’s stock performance with Bitcoin, considering Buffett’s focus on earnings and yield, an analysis simulated Berkshire Hathaway’s stock performance using a factor of three to mimic a leveraged position.
If one invested $1,000 in Bitcoin (spot) and initiated a leveraged long position in Berkshire Hathaway shares in early 2019, they’d have seen a $7,020 return in BTC versus $5,623 in Buffett’s holding company.
Similarly, for investments beginning in 2017, the returns would have been $3,798 in BTC versus $1,998 using the leveraged long strategy in Berkshire Hathaway’s shares.
Buffett’s investment thesis faces a potential loophole: Berkshire Hathaway currently holds a record-high $147 billion in cash equivalents and short-term investments, comprising 18.5% of its market capitalization.
This raises queries about whether it seeks better entry points into stocks or finds the 5.25% returns on fixed-income investments satisfactory.
This scenario underscores that even accomplished investors may hesitate to deploy their cash, prompting questions about whether funds on the sidelines, including $5.6 trillion in money market funds, might seek alternate protection against resurging inflation.
While Bitcoin isn’t a flawless store of value and its volatility is a concern, it’s important to note that it hasn’t yet faced a global economic recession.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin consistently outperforms Berkshire Hathaway shares, implying that investors increasingly see it as a viable alternative store of value.
Considering this, Berkshire Hathaway’s substantial cash position serves as a cautionary note for Bitcoin skeptics.
With Bitcoin’s market capitalization at $500 billion, it signifies untapped potential for it to play a more significant role in finance.
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Former chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jay Clayton, remains optimistic about the eventual approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite recent delays in decision-making.
In a recent interview with CNBC on September 1st, Clayton noted that the backing of major financial institutions in the realm of spot Bitcoin investments signals a notable shift in providing retail investors with access to cryptocurrency exposure.
The SEC’s recent move to extend the review period for various spot BTC ETF applications from prominent entities such as BlackRock, WisdomTree, VanEck, Invesco Galaxy, Bitwise, Valkyrie, and Fidelity, was observed on August 31st.
This extension grants the commission an additional 45 days, following the notice’s publication in the Federal Register, to either approve, reject, or further delay the ETF applications from these influential firms.
Clayton expressed his belief in the forward momentum of these efforts, indicating that progress can be expected as the process unfolds.
The SEC retains the flexibility to extend the application deadlines until March 2024.
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Clayton emphasized that he envisions an “inevitable” approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting the disparity between futures products and cash products, and asserting that this divergence cannot persist indefinitely.
Notably, Clayton’s viewpoint resonates with that of U.S. Court of Appeals Circuit Judge Neomi Rao.
In a recent ruling, Rao and two other judges directed the SEC to reevaluate the application of asset manager Grayscale, seeking to transform its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Rao highlighted that the SEC had previously greenlit BTC futures ETFs, implying a similarity between Grayscale’s proposition and the approved futures products.
The sequence of ETF application delays took place in rapid succession on August 31st, just prior to the Labor Day holiday weekend in the United States.
The following key deadline for the assessment of significant spot BTC applications is scheduled for October 7th, at which point the commission is expected to provide updates regarding the proposed offering from fund manager Global X.
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