The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly opted not to appeal a recent court ruling in favor of Grayscale Investments.
The decision stems from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which directed the SEC to review Grayscale’s application for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
This development was disclosed in an October 13 report by Reuters, citing an insider source. Bloomberg analysts, too, anticipate that the SEC will refrain from taking the matter to the Supreme Court, although this doesn’t guarantee automatic approval for Grayscale’s ETF application.
If these reports hold true, the SEC is obligated to comply with the court’s August order, requiring a thorough evaluation of Grayscale’s request to transform its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Reuters anticipates that the appeals court will soon provide a detailed mandate outlining how the SEC should execute this ruling.
In response to these unfolding events, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expressed his perspective via X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that the SEC is unlikely to appeal further.
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Seyffart anticipates that discussions between Grayscale and the SEC will commence in the coming week, with the hope of shedding more light on the next steps.
Looking ahead, Seyffart posits that we may learn in the next week or two about the deadline for the SEC to either approve or deny Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF application.
Should the SEC reject the application, Grayscale would retain the option to appeal, potentially prolonging the process.
Approximately seven spot Bitcoin ETF applications currently await the SEC’s decision, indicating substantial interest in this investment vehicle.
In a separate X post on October 13, Seyffart reiterated his belief in a 90% probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF application receiving approval in January 2024, with specific reference to Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest.
Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, previously estimated a 75% likelihood of an ETF application gaining approval in 2023, underscoring the growing momentum and expectations surrounding this evolving financial instrument.
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On October 13, Bitcoin (BTC) remained steady around the crucial $26,800 level for a second consecutive day as United States regulators prepared to make a decision in their ongoing battle with crypto investment giant Grayscale.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that Bitcoin’s price exhibited minimal change from the previous day, trading within a narrow range.
Analysts closely monitored several potential catalysts, including the pending decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the appeal of a court ruling related to its refusal to approve a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Michaël van de Poppe, the founder and CEO of MN Trading, emphasized the significance of the day, stating in a social media post, “Today is an important day with the SEC Appeal on the Grayscale ruling.
If nothing happens, we might be seeing a case where Bitcoin reverses upwards in the coming weeks. I’m positioned long.”
Amidst a week filled with economic data releases that consistently revealed higher-than-expected inflation, macroeconomic data releases were taking a temporary break.
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Renowned trader and analyst Credible Crypto expressed cautious optimism about Bitcoin’s future price trajectory, highlighting a pattern of controlled price declines and suggesting that a reversal might occur once certain levels were cleared.
Meanwhile, trader Daan Crypto Trades observed Bitcoin moving within a range defined by two liquidity levels, anticipating a reaction should the spot price reach either boundary.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital set a price target of $25,000 for Bitcoin if bulls failed to regain lost exponential moving averages (EMAs) during the week.
Leading up to the appeal deadline, Grayscale’s flagship investment fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), continued to perform well.
Grayscale anticipated that the ongoing legal proceedings would result in GBTC becoming a spot ETF. An early victory for the company in Q2 had already boosted its fortunes. ]
On October 11, GBTC reached its narrowest discount to the net asset value (NAV), which equates to the Bitcoin spot price, since December 2021.
The discount, technically a negative premium, bottomed out at -16.44% before slightly decreasing, as reported by CoinGlass, a monitoring resource.
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Prominent cryptocurrency advocate, Arthur Hayes, recently voiced his predictions on the future of Bitcoin, global economies, and market behaviors on Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu.
According to Hayes, by 2026, Bitcoin’s price could soar between $750,000 to $1 million.
Hayes paints a picture of a looming financial crisis, which he believes could be more severe than the Great Depression.
He predicts an unprecedented bull market, impacting stocks, real estate, cryptocurrencies, art, and more.
This surge, he claims, is a result of the U.S. government’s habitual response to economic crises: bailing out, leading to structural issues in the economy.
By continuously resorting to central bank printing, inflation surges and natural market growth-correction cycles are stifled.
“Government interventions, in attempts to save the system, erode parts of the free market every time a financial crisis emerges over the last 80 years,” Hayes argues.
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Hayes identifies key factors supporting his Bitcoin forecast:
- Mounting Debt and Inflation: Hayes states that escalating government debt, roll-over needs, and waning productivity are only met with money printing. Though this results in bull markets, the fallout is typically rampant inflation. Hayes warns of a ‘massive top’ in 2026, followed by a depression-like scenario.
- U.S. Banking System’s Insolvency: He points to the $7.75 trillion U.S. debt due for roll-over by 2026 and altered dynamics in U.S. bond yield curves. Historically, nations like China and Japan were primary U.S. debt buyers. This has changed, which Hayes believes will intensify U.S. troubles. The U.S. banking system, in Hayes’ view, is effectively bankrupt due to past regulatory actions. Hayes emphasizes the banking system’s inability to buy more debt, given its structural insolvency.
- Attractiveness of Bitcoin as an Investment: As traditional financial systems become more unstable, investors may pivot towards alternative assets like Bitcoin. Hayes says, “In an economy with negative real rates, individuals will seek other assets, including cryptocurrencies.”
Hayes forecasts Bitcoin trading between $25,000 and $30,000 in the near future.
By 2024, he anticipates a potential financial crisis to drive rates near 0% or escalating government expenditure causing investors to hunt for superior returns.
He suggests that the U.S., Europe, and possibly Hong Kong’s approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, combined with Bitcoin’s halving event, could propel its price to $70,000 by mid-2024.
From this point, he foresees Bitcoin skyrocketing to between $750,000 and $1 million.
However, Hayes also acknowledges a potential 70% to 90% drop in Bitcoin’s price post this bull run, mirroring past trends.
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Bitcoin maintained its position around $28,000 as of the Oct. 8 weekly close, with geopolitical tensions capturing the attention of traders.
Recent data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience against potential drops over the past weekend.
After briefly dipping to $27,000 on Oct. 6, positive US employment figures—contrasting with Federal Reserve policy changes—aided its recovery.
The main focus for traders in the coming week is the $28,000 resistance.
Skew, a notable trader, emphasized in his analysis on the low timeframe (LTF) of exchange order books that significant buying power is essential to transition the $28,000 from resistance to support.
“The market still perceives $28K as resistance. Breaking it would need substantial buying,” he mentioned to his X (formerly Twitter) followers.
Additionally, he observed perpetual contracts (perps) shorting each LTF bounce at $28,000.
Skew also pointed out Bitcoin’s response to the $28,000 level and the current 200-day moving average (MA) of $28,040 as less than ideal.
Another trader, Daan Crypto Trades, warned against betting on Bitcoin’s price drop, especially if a surge takes place.
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He noted the significance of the $28,000 mark with the Daily/Weekly 200MA at the same position and expressed his hesitancy in shorting any upward deviations.
He further shared, “Historically, weekend breakouts at these points have been resilient against retractions.”
A provided chart showcased the final price for the past week’s CME Bitcoin futures, which could act as a pricing guide for the forthcoming week. Daan added, “The CME price is most effective in a fluctuating environment.
We’re in that scenario, but a strong upward move might change it, making me reluctant to short during a potential weekend surge.”
Additionally, recent events in Israel have raised discussions about geopolitical uncertainties possibly influencing Bitcoin’s pricing in the future.
Among the commentators is Michaël van de Poppe, CEO of MN Trading.
He anticipated a volatile week, suggesting that Bitcoin might approach $30K due to growing global uncertainty.
Van de Poppe had previously predicted Bitcoin surpassing $30,000 in October, a month traditionally favorable for Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced slightly below $28,000, marking a 3.5% increase month-to-date, based on CoinGlass data.
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Bitcoin witnessed reduced volatility on October 6th, with market participants preparing for a potential price drop.
Over the last 24 hours, the BTC/USD price stabilized after a failed attempt to breach the $28,000 mark.
Although the cryptocurrency approached this price level again prior to Wall Street’s opening, there were concerns about potential forthcoming losses.
Prominent trader, Daan Crypto Trades, observed a conflict between two major daily moving averages. He predicted that the outcome of this struggle would dictate Bitcoin’s trend for the rest of October.
He highlighted the ongoing contest between the $27,000 and $28,000 price points.
Additionally, he noted the increasing open interest across exchanges, indicating a potential sequence of short squeezes followed by long squeezes. Daan emphasized the importance of monitoring this price range.
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CoinGlass data indicated minor liquidations in both long and short Bitcoin positions on October 6th. Meanwhile, Material Indicators analyzed the trading patterns of “whales,” or large-volume traders.
The study segmented these traders and found that while some were actively buying and selling, leading to a net increase of $13.8 million in market orders on Binance over a week, others sold assets worth nearly $60 million during the same period.
Material Indicators speculated on the possibility of these sales being linked to the potential liquidation of assets from the now-defunct FTX exchange.
The major takeaway was the surprise not in the price’s failure to increase, but its resilience in not dipping further.
Another trading analyst, Exitpump, postulated a potential liquidity trap below the $27,400 mark, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price often retests resistance levels multiple times before establishing a peak.
In essence, as Bitcoin approached the $28,000 mark, market indicators and expert opinions seemed mixed, with some seeing potential for growth and others predicting setbacks.
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Bitcoin Holds Steady at $27,500 Amidst US Yield Surges and Dollar Volatility
On October 4th, Bitcoin (BTC) remained relatively stable at the $27,500 mark, with investors closely monitoring the soaring yields in the United States.
Despite the calmness in BTC price action, the U.S. dollar exhibited considerable volatility, seizing the attention of market participants.
After a week of turbulent trading, Bitcoin was once again searching for direction, prompting market analysts to identify critical price levels.
Skew, a prominent trader, pointed out that market participants were selling towards the $27,600 level, emphasizing the significance of reclaiming this price level.
He suggested that a substantial upward movement could follow once this level is regained.
Another trader known as Crypto Tony identified $27,000 as a crucial support level. Mark Cullen, in line with this sentiment, stressed the importance of Bitcoin holding the $27,000 area, particularly given the challenging conditions in traditional financial markets.
He observed that Bitcoin had exhibited a reaction at his designated zone and the breakout trendline. Cullen underscored the significance of BTC maintaining the $27,000 level, especially until other markets stabilized.
In contrast to Bitcoin’s relative stability, legacy markets on October 4th were notably less secure, primarily due to a surge in U.S. 30-year bond yields, reaching levels not seen in 16 years.
This development raised concerns among commentators about a potential market meltdown.
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Skew suggested that the unease surrounding the macroeconomic forces at play was a contributing factor to the lack of substantial BTC trading volume.
The market appeared to be cautiously testing the waters, with most participants being perpetual contract buyers.
Many investors were opting to hold cash amid market distress, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding risk parameters and exposure.
Before the Wall Street open, the U.S. dollar itself experienced significant fluctuations, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rapidly falling from levels not observed since the fourth quarter of the previous year.
Despite these shifts, BTC/USD continued to demonstrate resilience against abrupt movements in the DXY.
Sven Henrich, the founder of NorthmanTrader, noted that the long-term performance of the DXY chart was following expected trends.
He emphasized the importance of the U.S. dollar’s behavior, particularly in the context of the broader market, as it was likely to be a key driver for the remainder of the year.
Amidst the chaos and volatility, the DXY adhered to channel trendlines, signaling potential market dynamics that could unfold in the coming months.
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On October 3rd, Bitcoin exhibited moderate gains, rebounding from a recent dip of $1,300 as it approached the daily closing mark.
BTC’s price action revolved around the $27,500 mark, having experienced a descent from its six-week peak near $28,600, eventually finding support at $27,335 before stabilizing.
Despite the potential for the initial October breakout to be a deceptive “fakeout,” market participants remained composed.
Renowned trader Jelle expressed optimism, noting that the absence of an instant surge to $30,000 following the breakout could be seen as a positive sign, as rapid vertical movements often lead to retracements.
Daan Crypto Trades shared a similar sentiment, emphasizing the importance of a gradual climb back to previous highs for Bitcoin bulls.
He pointed out that it was essential for long traders to remain patient and wait for opportune entry points, especially during the Asian trading session.
Examining the factors contributing to the BTC price reversal, popular trader Skew highlighted the selling pressure faced by spot traders, which hindered BTC from surging beyond the $28.5K mark and ultimately triggered the sell-off.
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While some bid depth appeared to be returning, overall liquidity in the market remained relatively wide.
Previously, Skew had emphasized the increasing demands from buyers required to surpass the existing trading range, which eventually resulted in a lack of upward momentum.
Additionally, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators issued caution regarding downside signals on its proprietary trading tools, particularly on daily timeframes.
While these signals suggested a potential continuation of the downtrend, a decisive move above $26,800 might warrant a reconsideration.
The report also reminded readers that the cryptocurrency market had been trading within the same range for several months, emphasizing that until Bitcoin records a lower low on the weekly chart, the possibility of retesting resistance should not be ruled out.
Prior to this, renowned trader and analyst Rekt Capital had offered an optimistic perspective, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially surge beyond $29,000 before resuming its current trading range.
Overall, Bitcoin’s price movements continued to captivate the attention of traders and analysts alike as they assessed its short-term and long-term potential.
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Bitwise Asset Management is making significant moves in the world of cryptocurrency investment, with revisions to its spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) application and the confirmation of trading commencement for two Ether (ETH) futures ETFs set for October 2nd.
The company’s forthcoming offerings include the Bitwise Ethereum Strategy ETF and the Bitwise Bitcoin and Ether Equal Weight Strategy ETF, aimed at providing investors access to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Ether futures.
Matt Hougan, the firm’s Chief Investment Officer, emphasized Ethereum’s broader investment potential compared to Bitcoin, describing it as an asset that appeals to both alternative and traditional growth investors due to its versatile attributes.
Interestingly, Bitwise is not alone in its pursuit of Ethereum-based ETFs. Invesco, another asset management giant, is exploring the introduction of the Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, indicating the growing interest in Ethereum-focused investment products.
However, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF applications from Bitwise, BlackRock, Invesco, and Valkyrie by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The SEC has yet to make a decision, partly due to the threat of a U.S. government shutdown.
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Moreover, the outcome of the Grayscale lawsuit adds another layer of complexity.
This lawsuit involves the transformation of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin ETF. A U.S. court’s decision on August 29th paved the way for the approval of the Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF by dismissing the SEC’s objections.
This development could influence the SEC’s decision regarding spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
In parallel, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart has unveiled a roster of nine Ethereum Futures ETFs that are poised to receive expedited approval from the SEC, with a launch date set for October 2, 2023.
This signals a growing interest in Ethereum futures as an investment avenue.
In conclusion, Bitwise’s strategic moves in the cryptocurrency ETF space, coupled with Invesco’s foray into Ethereum ETFs, underscore the evolving landscape of crypto investments.
The fate of spot Bitcoin ETFs remains uncertain, hinging on regulatory decisions and legal developments.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s prominence continues to rise, attracting investors seeking diversified opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
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The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has opted to postpone its ruling on a series of proposals concerning spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Notably, BlackRock’s ETF proposal is among those affected, and this delay comes ahead of an anticipated government shutdown.
In addition to BlackRock, the SEC has also extended the waiting period for spot Bitcoin ETF applications submitted by Invesco, Bitwise, and Valkyrie.
These postponements were officially disclosed in separate filings made on September 28.
Notably, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart anticipates that the applications filed by Fidelity, VanEck, and WisdomTree will likely encounter similar delays at the hands of the securities regulator.
These recent delays have materialized roughly two weeks ahead of the originally scheduled second deadline.
Many applicants were expecting a response from the securities regulator between October 16 and 19. The timing of these delays appears to be closely linked to the looming prospect of a U.S. government “shutdown” set to occur on October 1.
Such an event would disrupt the functioning of the country’s financial regulators and various other federal agencies.
The root cause of these delays lies in the fact that both chambers of Congress, the House, and Senate, have yet to reach an agreement on several funding bills essential for the government’s operational activities.
To avoid a shutdown, Congress must successfully pass 12 separate full-year funding bills by the impending deadline of October 1.
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It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time the SEC has postponed spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
A similar postponement occurred in late August as the initial deadline approached. Looking ahead, the third set of deadlines for these seven firms is scheduled around mid-January.
However, they, too, may encounter further delays. Regardless, the SEC must make a definitive decision no later than mid-March.
In a related development from late August, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revised his estimation regarding the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF gaining approval by the close of 2023.
He increased the probability from an earlier estimate of 65% to 75%.
Balchunas attributed this heightened likelihood to the unanimous and decisive ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals Circuit in favor of Grayscale in their legal battle against the SEC.
Furthermore, Balchunas raised these odds to an even more optimistic 95% by the end of 2024, reflecting a growing sense of optimism regarding the potential regulatory approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
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A new legislative proposal has surfaced in the United States that seeks to enhance oversight and transparency within the cryptocurrency industry. U.S.
Representative Don Beyer unveiled the “Off-Chain Digital Commodity Transaction Reporting Act” on September 28.
This groundbreaking legislation mandates that cryptocurrency service providers report all blockchain transactions to a government-designated repository registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The primary objective of this legislation is to safeguard cryptocurrency investors from potential disputes, manipulation, or fraudulent activities arising from transactions conducted off-chain or beyond the purview of the blockchain network.
Unlike on-chain transactions that are instantaneously recorded on the blockchain, off-chain cryptocurrency transactions traverse secondary layers, making tracking and monitoring more challenging.
This issue has gained prominence due to the proliferation of trading platforms that aim to expedite transaction processing times while reducing costs.
Thousands of transactions now occur “off-chain,” eluding public visibility on the blockchain.
Representative Beyer emphasized the discrepancies in internal record-keeping among these private entities, underscoring the vulnerability of investors and consumers to fraudulent practices.
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In his statement, Representative Beyer articulated the legislation’s purpose: “This bill is a common-sense measure to restore some transparency and confidence to the digital asset market.”
According to the bill’s provisions, cryptocurrency service providers will be obliged to report all off-chain transactions within a 24-hour window to a CFTC-registered trade repository.
Notably, these requirements parallel the rules governing “virtually all securities and swaps transactions.”
This legislative move reflects a broader trend of U.S. lawmakers actively addressing cryptocurrency regulations.
In mid-September, nine U.S. senators threw their support behind Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which was reintroduced in July 2023.
The bill seeks to clamp down on noncustodial digital wallets and extend the responsibilities outlined in the Bank Secrecy Act to tackle the illicit use of digital currencies.
These collective efforts underscore the growing recognition of the need for robust regulatory frameworks to govern the cryptocurrency space and protect the interests of investors and consumers alike.
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