According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin is poised to conclude 2023 much as it began the year, with significant gains in October.
The latest issue of their weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released on October 24, highlighted that the past week has set the stage for a potential uptrend in BTC’s price.
Bitcoin’s price surged to $35,200 during the week, surpassing several crucial trendlines that had previously acted as support for months.
These included various moving averages (MAs), notably the 200-week simple MA at $28,400, which is often considered a critical support level during bear markets.
Glassnode pointed out, “A cluster of long-term simple moving averages of price are located around $28k, and have provided market resistance through September and October.”
However, the recent market strength allowed Bitcoin to break through the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages convincingly.
This breakthrough had a positive impact on the profitability of various investor groups, including speculators and newcomers, whose cost basis was around $28,000.
The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis also reached $28k, resulting in an average profit of approximately +20%.
Glassnode presented a chart of the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH-MVRV) ratio, which measures the profitability of STH coins.
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They noted that even before the October surge, there was no significant capitulation behavior among STH holders.
In contrast to previous years when STH-MVRV experienced deep corrections of -20% or more, the August sell-off only reached -10%, suggesting robust support and potentially paving the way for the recent rally.
Despite facing their own profitability challenges, long-term holders (LTHs) now own over 75% of the available BTC supply for the first time.
Their cost basis is lower, closer to $20,000, and while some believe Bitcoin could return to that level, Glassnode remains optimistic about the year-end outlook.
Glassnode concluded, “This sets the foundation for a resumption of the 2023 uptrend.
At the very least, the market has crossed over several key levels where aggregate investor psychology is likely to be anchored, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.”
As per data from on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass, BTC/USD has seen a 26% increase this month, which, by October standards, is considered relatively modest.
However, Glassnode’s analysis suggests a positive outlook for Bitcoin as it closes out the year.
Google searches for “buy Bitcoin” have experienced a global surge amidst a significant crypto rally, with the United Kingdom witnessing an astounding 826% increase in searches over the past week, according to research by Cryptogambling.tv.
This remarkable surge in the UK, coupled with the cryptocurrency’s resurgence, reflects the growing interest and potential impact of traditional financial institutions’ engagement in digital assets.
While the UK led the way in this search frenzy, a notable rise in Bitcoin-related queries was observed worldwide.
In the United States, searches for “should I buy Bitcoin now?” spiked by over 250%, and more niche inquiries like “can I buy Bitcoin on Fidelity?” saw an astonishing 3,100% surge in the past week.
A broader perspective reveals that the global search term “Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin?” witnessed a 110% increase.
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Concurrently, searches for “BlackRock Bitcoin ETF” soared by 250%, indicative of widespread enthusiasm for information related to BlackRock’s pending spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
This sudden surge in interest coincides with a sharp increase in Bitcoin’s price over the past fortnight, briefly exceeding $35,000 on October 24, marking its first climb to such heights since May 2022.
This excitement appears closely tied to the anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF’s approval, a development that many experts believe will trigger a fresh wave of institutional buying.
Senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have expressed confidence in a 90% probability of approval by January 10, 2024.
Notably, at the time of this report’s publication, Bitcoin has gained over 27% in value over the past two weeks, as per TradingView price data.
In conclusion, Google searches for “buy Bitcoin” have surged dramatically, highlighting the global interest in cryptocurrency, especially in the United Kingdom.
This fervor is intertwined with the recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price and the anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF’s approval, indicating a shifting landscape in the world of digital assets and traditional financial institutions’ increasing involvement.
ARK, the renowned investment firm led by the pro-Bitcoin advocate Cathie Wood, has recently made strategic moves in its portfolio, shedding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares worth $2.5 million.
This decision comes in the wake of a notable surge in the GBTC market, which has been stoked by the growing anticipation of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
On October 23, ARK executed the sale of 100,739 GBTC shares, marking its first officially reported GBTC transaction since November 2022 when it acquired 450,272 GBTC shares valued at $4.5 million for its ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW).
The recent sale constitutes approximately 2% of GBTC’s total value in ARKW’s portfolio, equivalent to $122.6 million as of that date. Notably, GBTC is the flagship asset in ARKW’s holdings, representing 10.4% of the fund’s exposure, with Coinbase and Roku shares trailing at 9% and 7.4%, respectively.
The GBTC market has been on a remarkable ascent, hitting multi-month highs and breaching the $24.7 mark for the first time since May 2022.
TradingView data shows that GBTC has surged by over 200% year-to-date, with a nearly 30% increase in the past 30 days.
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One possible explanation for ARK’s move is the anticipation surrounding the decision of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding Grayscale’s registration statement for a Bitcoin-based ETF.
Grayscale filed this new BTC ETF registration statement with the SEC on October 19, shortly after ARK amended its own spot Bitcoin ETF filing on October 11.
Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow suggested that ARK’s GBTC sale aligns with the diminishing GBTC discount and their pending ETF filing.
Speculation has also arisen among online traders, suggesting that if ARK’s spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved, the firm might prioritize it as the primary holding in ARKW, potentially leading to the disposal of GBTC shares.
While ARK has not yet responded to requests for comment, the investment firm has also divested itself of 32,158 Coinbase shares from ARKW and 10,455 Coinbase shares from its ARK Fintech Innovation fund, totaling $3.4 million.
On a different note, ARK has increased its stake in Robinhood shares, adding 32,158 shares valued at $300,000 to ARKW’s portfolio on October 23.
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Monday’s dramatic surge in the price of Bitcoin has propelled Bitcoin-related stocks to unprecedented heights. Notable names like Coinbase and MicroStrategy have hit fresh multiweek highs, reflecting the growing enthusiasm around cryptocurrencies.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price has translated into significant gains for Bitcoin mining stocks. Riot Blockchain, a U.S.-listed company, saw its stock soar by 11.69%, while Marathon Digital Holdings witnessed a substantial 14.6% increase.
This impressive performance can partially be attributed to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, thereby increasing scarcity and potentially driving up demand.
In addition to outperforming Bitcoin in the recent price rally, Bitcoin mining stocks have also displayed remarkable year-to-date (YTD) gains.
For instance, Cipher Mining has seen an astounding YTD increase of 356%, far surpassing Bitcoin’s YTD gains of 86%.
Similarly, Riot Platforms has recorded a remarkable 163.10% YTD increase, and Northern Data, a Frankfurt-based general processing unit miner, has surged by an impressive 291.40%.
Other companies such as Hut 8 Mining, Iris Energy, Bitfarms, Marathon Digital, and Hive Technologies have all posted growth rates exceeding 100% in 2023.
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Apart from publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies, other Bitcoin-focused firms like Coinbase and MicroStrategy have also reached multiweek highs.
Coinbase’s stock showed a 3.42% increase at the time of writing, while MicroStrategy, a prominent holder of Bitcoin, registered a substantial 9% gain on the daily charts.
MicroStrategy’s investment in Bitcoin has experienced a roller-coaster ride in 2023.
Despite being in the red by as much as -50% during the bear market, the company has managed to bring its Bitcoin holdings back into profitability.
Currently holding 158,245 BTC, which were acquired for $4.68 billion at an average price of $29,582,
MicroStrategy’s investment is now valued at $5.5 billion, resulting in nearly $1 billion in unrealized gains.
On October 23, the price of Bitcoin surged past the $35,000 mark, reaching a one-year high, before retracing below $33,000.
Just a day later, on October 24, Bitcoin experienced another 5% surge, trading above $34,500 at the time of writing.
These price movements continue to captivate the attention of both investors and enthusiasts in the cryptocurrency space.
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On October 24th, major cryptocurrency exchanges experienced a noteworthy net outflow of funds, coinciding with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reaching the $35,000 mark for the first time in a year.
This exodus of funds from exchanges is viewed as a positive sign in the crypto space, indicating that traders are transferring their assets to secure storage, anticipating an uptick in prices.
According to data shared by crypto analytics firm CoinGlass, the largest outflow was witnessed on Binance, with more than $500 million leaving the platform over the past 24 hours.
Following this, crypto.com recorded $49.4 million in outflows, and OKX saw $31 million departing its exchange. Most other exchanges reported outflows of less than $20 million.
Concerns reminiscent of a “bank run” surfaced after the collapse of FTX in November 2022, with investors fearing a similar scenario.
However, the recent outflows appear to be more aligned with trader sentiment rather than panic-induced withdrawals during the peak of the bear market.
Data from Glassnode corroborates this trend, showing that Bitcoin outflows from exchanges have increased in tandem with the surge in BTC’s price.
This price surge also resulted in the liquidation of approximately $400 million worth of short positions, with 94,755 traders witnessing their derivative positions being liquidated within the last 24 hours. The largest single liquidation order took place on Binance, amounting to $9.98 million.
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On-chain analysts drew attention to the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, a key metric comparing an asset’s market value to its realized value.
It is calculated by dividing a cryptocurrency’s market capitalization by its realized capitalization, which is based on the average price at which each coin or token was last moved on-chain.
The current MVRV ratio stands at 1.47, just shy of the 1.5 threshold that historically heralds the beginning of a bull market.
The crypto market as a whole has seen a remarkable 7.3% increase in its total market capitalization over the last 24 hours, reaching $1.25 trillion, its highest valuation since April.
This surge is believed to be fueled by speculation surrounding the imminent launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), further amplifying the bullish sentiment in the crypto ecosystem.
With the MVRV ratio inching closer to 1.5, many enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach $40,000 in the coming days.
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On October 20th, Bitcoin made a significant move, surging to $30,000 as Wall Street opened its doors. Analysts were closely monitoring the weekly closing price to gauge the strength of this rally.
BTC’s price reached a two-month high of $30,233 on Bitstamp, maintaining its strength during the Asian trading session.
However, as of the time of writing, it experienced a slight dip, dropping just below $29,500.
The ongoing volatility in the market had experts emphasizing the importance of a strong weekly candle close to confirm the sustainability of the rally.
One key metric being watched closely was the 100-week moving average (MA) at $28,627. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, emphasized the significance of the weekly candle closing above this level, with subsequent candles staying above it without any downward wicks.
He noted that Bitcoin would need to overcome resistance levels at $30.5k, $31.5k, and ultimately $33k to validate a bull breakout.
Trader Pentoshi identified $28,900 as a critical support level that bulls needed to maintain. Meanwhile, another trader, Skew, suggested that a sweep of late long positions could create an entry opportunity before the upside resumed.
Taking a longer-term perspective, the trading team at Stockmoney Lizards remained optimistic, predicting that the resistance just above $30,000 would soon be breached.
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They pointed to a chart fractal comparing BTC/USD in 2023 to its 2020 breakout, suggesting that significant upward movement was imminent.
The approval of the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) was seen as a potential catalyst for this surge.
In their commentary, Stockmoney Lizards addressed concerns about the timing relative to the 2020 halving event, stating that the current circumstances, including mass adoption and potential ETF approval, would be the driving forces behind Bitcoin’s price movement.
They also mentioned the upcoming block subsidy halving scheduled for April 2024, which could further impact the cryptocurrency landscape.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price surged to $30,000 on October 20th, with market participants closely monitoring the weekly candle close to confirm the strength of the rally.
Key support and resistance levels were identified, and traders remained optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s future, especially in the context of potential ETF approval and upcoming halving events.
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Bitcoin’s price is poised to reach $128,000 or even higher by the close of 2025, according to a variety of analytical models.
On October 17, CryptoCon, a well-known trader and analyst, posted his latest Bitcoin price predictions on the X social media platform. He established a two-year target of approximately $130,000.
Although opinions on how Bitcoin’s price will respond to the upcoming block subsidy halving in the next year differ among market participants, CryptoCon remains bullish about the long-term outlook.
In his updates on various models tracking Bitcoin price cycles and their peaks and troughs, he emphasized that the $130,000 mark was rapidly becoming a significant target.
He summarized, “I’ve been conducting extensive experiments on Bitcoin cycle tops lately, and I consistently see a price of around $130,000.”
Additionally, he presented a chart highlighting “early” peaks in each price cycle, along with the actual cycle top that establishes a new all-time high.
These early peaks typically occur about three weeks before or after July 9, while the new all-time highs occur about three weeks before or after November 28.
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CryptoCon derived the timing for these events by plotting simple diagonal trendlines from the first early peak, revealing a price of around $138,000 for the next cycle top.
While acknowledging the possibility of lower prices, he stated, “The signs are aligning for Bitcoin to reach $130,000 in this cycle.”
According to model timing, 2025 is expected to be the year when the next cycle peak occurs, nearly double the previous record set in 2021.
Meanwhile, some well-known Bitcoin market commentators are guided by the four-year halving cycles. Rekt Capital, a popular trader and analyst, suggests that the year 2023, just before the halving, might witness some new local lows before the bull market regains full momentum.
He previously warned about the potential for a double-top structure based on the $32,000 highs seen earlier this year, which could fuel a prolonged BTC price decline.
Rekt Capital remarked, “At this same point in the cycle (~180 days before the Halving)… BTC retraced -25% in 2015/2016 and -38% in 2019.”
He noted the uncertainty of whether history would repeat or if 2023 would bring something entirely different, but emphasized that any new lows should be viewed as opportunities for re-accumulation.
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The United States government has quietly amassed a substantial Bitcoin holding, making it one of the largest cryptocurrency holders globally.
Recent data analysis conducted by the crypto firm 21.co reveals that the U.S. government currently possesses approximately 194,188 BTC, with an estimated value of $5.3 billion.
It’s important to note that these figures are considered conservative estimates based on publicly available information.
The analysis focused on tracking the movement of Bitcoin within U.S. government wallets associated with three significant seizures of the cryptocurrency since 2020.
These seizures include the Silk Road’s confiscation of 69,369 BTC in November 2020, the Bitfinex Hack’s seizure of 94,643 BTC in January 2022, and the James Zhong seizure of 51,326 BTC in March 2022.
The U.S. government has taken stringent measures to secure its Bitcoin holdings, primarily storing them offline in encrypted hardware wallets.
These wallets are safeguarded within the premises of the Justice Department and the Internal Revenue Service, ensuring their protection against potential cyber threats.
It’s important to clarify that seized assets don’t automatically become the property of the government.
The U.S. Marshals Service, the primary agency responsible for managing seized property, gains possession of the seized Bitcoin only after a court issues a definitive forfeiture judgment.
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Following this, the government can choose to sell a portion of the seized Bitcoin through an auction system based on court liquidation orders.
While auctions have been the traditional method for the government to dispose of seized Bitcoin, recent years have seen a shift towards utilizing cryptocurrency exchanges for these sales.
One notable example occurred in March of this year when the U.S. government auctioned 9,118 BTC on Coinbase, as confirmed through public filings.
This strategic approach to handling seized cryptocurrency reflects the evolving landscape of digital assets within the U.S. government.
Notably, it contrasts with the earlier instance in 2014 when billionaire Tim Draper acquired 30,000 BTC through U.S. government auctions, emphasizing how the government’s tactics have evolved over time.
As the U.S. government continues to navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency holdings, its substantial Bitcoin reserves stand as a testament to the ever-increasing importance of digital assets in the global financial landscape.
This development underscores the need for transparency and accountability in managing such holdings, ensuring they are utilized to benefit the American people and uphold the principles of responsible financial management.
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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is currently experiencing its lowest discount in almost two years, with its discount to Bitcoin’s net asset value (NAV) narrowing to 15.87% as of October 13, according to data from YCharts.
This metric measures how much a mutual fund or ETF is trading below its actual net asset value, offering insights into its true market value.
The narrowing of GBTC’s discount began when financial giants like BlackRock and several other institutions filed applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs in mid-June.
1From a high of 44% on June 15, the discount steadily decreased to 26.7% by July 5. Since then, it has continued to shrink.
The last time GBTC’s discount was at a similar level was in early December 2021, shortly after Bitcoin reached its all-time high price of $69,000 in November, as reported by CoinGecko.
Many in the cryptocurrency community, including Bitcoin advocate Oliver Velez, speculate that the market is factoring in the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of the year.
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Lyle Pratt, a cryptocurrency investor, believes that GBTC’s discount will continue to decrease over the next week or two as spot Bitcoin ETFs approach regulatory approval.
Recent reports suggest that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chose not to appeal the Grayscale decision on October 13.
This development has led Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart to describe spot Bitcoin ETF approvals as a “done deal.”
On October 15, Grayscale issued a statement indicating that the SEC’s 45-day period for seeking a rehearing had elapsed.
Consequently, the court is expected to issue its “final mandate” within the next seven calendar days.
Grayscale expressed its operational readiness to convert GBTC into an ETF upon SEC approval and pledged to share further details as soon as possible.
Cointelegraph attempted to reach out to Grayscale for additional comments but had not received an immediate response at the time of reporting.
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California Governor Gavin Newsom has given the green light to a new cryptocurrency bill that will usher in stricter regulations for businesses engaged in cryptocurrency activities, slated to take effect in July 2025.
In an announcement made on October 13th, Newsom revealed that the legislation, officially titled the Digital Financial Assets Law, will necessitate both individuals and companies to obtain a Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) license if they intend to participate in digital asset-related business activities.
This move builds upon California’s existing money transmission laws, which already prohibit financial and transfer services from operating without proper licensing from the DFPI commissioner.
The Digital Financial Assets Law goes a step further by empowering the DFPI to impose robust audit requirements on cryptocurrency firms and compel them to maintain detailed financial records.
According to the bill, licensees must maintain records, including a comprehensive general ledger updated at least monthly, listing all assets, liabilities, capital, income, and expenses for a minimum of five years following each activity.
The legislation also underlines that non-compliance will result in enforcement actions against offending firms.
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Interestingly, in a similar timeframe in 2022, Governor Newsom declined to endorse a comparable bill designed to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets within California.
Even though the bill had garnered unanimous support in the California State Assembly, Newsom opted not to sign it, explaining that it lacked the adaptability needed to keep pace with the swiftly evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
Instead, he expressed his preference for waiting until federal regulations were in place before collaborating with the legislature to formulate comprehensive cryptocurrency licensing measures.
This development aligns with broader discussions within the United States about extending existing financial regulations, like the Electronic Fund Transfer Act, to encompass cryptocurrencies as a means of combating fraudulent transfers.
Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, recently voiced his intention to grant such authorization, aiming to minimize the risks associated with errors, hacks, and unauthorized cryptocurrency transfers.
In summary, California’s Digital Financial Assets Law, set to take effect in July 2025, represents a significant step forward in regulating cryptocurrency activities, requiring licensing for individuals and businesses and introducing stringent audit and record-keeping requirements to ensure compliance with financial regulations.
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