With the approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, Bitcoin may be on a path towards reaching nearly $50,000, according to insights from CryptoCon, a prominent analyst.
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator, a tool that combines historical, current, and future trading signals, is signaling an upward trajectory for Bitcoin’s price.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe, the Ichimoku Cloud indicator suggests that the recent gains in BTC price are just the beginning of a potential bullish trend.
CryptoCon shared his insights on November 27, predicting a specific target for Bitcoin’s price.
The Ichimoku indicator’s leading spans have recently intersected, forming a new upward cloud.
Furthermore, the lagging span, known as Chikou, has broken through resistance levels, indicating that the price is poised to move higher.
CryptoCon noted that the previous prediction made by the Weekly Ichimoku cloud accurately anticipated Bitcoin’s rise to $38,000 two months in advance, and now it points towards a new target of $43,000.
This projection typically takes around 7 to 11 weeks from the cross, with an average of 10 weeks, implying that the price could reach this level in early January.
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CryptoCon also suggested that $43,200 is a conservative estimate, and Bitcoin could potentially reach as high as $48,000.
He emphasized that the Ichimoku indicator, which looks into the future, indicates that there is more room for growth.
As of November 28, Bitcoin was trading at $37,000. The timing of the potential $48,000 target aligns with the expected approval date of the Bitcoin ETF in early January, assuming historical market patterns continue to hold.
However, the specifics of the ETF approval and which products will receive the green light remain uncertain.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to exert influence on the cryptocurrency market by taking enforcement actions against Binance, the world’s largest exchange.
Binance faced a significant $4.3 billion fine, and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, was removed from his position. Interestingly, these developments have benefited Coinbase, a rival exchange, with its shares surging over 250% year-to-date.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s potential ascent to nearly $50,000 is supported by the Ichimoku Cloud indicator’s signals, and its timing coincides with the anticipated approval of the first U.S.
Bitcoin ETF in early January, although regulatory uncertainties persist in the crypto space.
Robert Kiyosaki, renowned author of the influential personal finance book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has reaffirmed his belief in the importance of assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver as the specter of inflation looms large, endangering global living standards.
In recent times, the price of gold has surged past the $2,000 per ounce mark, demonstrating a consistent rebound in the face of diminishing fiat currency values.
As a staunch advocate for the Bitcoin ecosystem, Kiyosaki used his platform, with over 2.4 million followers on X (formerly Twitter), to encourage people to reduce their exposure to fiat currencies, which he dismissively referred to as the “fake money system.”
Kiyosaki, known for his candid and often unconventional financial advice, declared that individuals attempting to save money through traditional means are destined to fall short.
Instead, he recommended alternative forms of investment, including gold, silver, and Bitcoin, asserting, “Don’t be a loser. Get out of the FAKE money system.
Get into gold, silver, Bitcoin now… Before it’s too late.”
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On November 23rd, Kiyosaki pointed the finger at what he termed the “woke government” for the mounting inflation and the ensuing daily struggles faced by ordinary citizens.
He remains resolute in his choice to convert his fiat assets into Bitcoin and precious metals, underscoring his belief that political leaders are indifferent to the well-being of the populace, ultimately leading to conditions of strife and impoverishment.
As early as October 20th, Kiyosaki had forecasted that the price of gold would soon surpass $2,100, and he anticipates a further rally to $3,700 in the not-so-distant future.
In a bold prediction made in August 2023, Kiyosaki foresaw Bitcoin’s value reaching $100,000, taking into account the geopolitical tensions that posed a threat to global prosperity.
However, he also painted a vivid picture of what might transpire should the stocks and bonds market plummet.
In such a scenario, Kiyosaki envisions Bitcoin’s price skyrocketing to an astonishing $1 million, while the value of gold and silver would surge to $75,000 and $65,000, respectively.
In a world grappling with economic uncertainties and growing inflationary pressures, Kiyosaki’s unorthodox investment advice continues to capture the attention of individuals seeking to safeguard their financial futures.
Bitcoin is embarking on a new week, maintaining its position near its highest levels in the past 18 months.
The cryptocurrency’s price action surged above $38,000 last week, but it has since been trapped within a “micro-range,” leaving traders uncertain about the next move.
The pressing question on everyone’s mind is whether a deeper retracement is in store or if Bitcoin will continue its ascent to reach $40,000, potentially leaving doubters behind.
In the coming days, several potential catalysts could determine the direction of Bitcoin’s trend, and there are indications that the market is primed for a boost.
Volatility is expected to increase with the monthly close on the horizon, but before that, a series of macroeconomic events could bring unexpected price action.
The monthly close holds significant importance for day traders, with Bitcoin currently at a critical juncture.
Untested liquidity levels on the downside and resistance around the $40,000 mark have created a stubborn daily trading range.
Bulls and bears have struggled to break free from this narrow corridor, with even new higher highs being short-lived.
As of the latest weekly close, Bitcoin experienced a brief drop to $37,100 before recovering.
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Traders are now eagerly awaiting bid momentum to return, with key levels at $37,000 and $38,000 to watch closely.
The monthly close approaches, and Bitcoin has seen a 7.8% increase month-to-date in November 2023, which is considered average compared to previous years.
In addition to the monthly close, Bitcoin traders are also anticipating a week filled with macroeconomic events.
The United States Federal Reserve will receive crucial inflation data that will influence its interest rate policy decisions in the coming month.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on December 1, following comments from other senior Fed officials.
The GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) is nearing parity with its underlying asset pair, BTC/USD, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment.
The fund’s resurgence is seen as a sign of growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, particularly if the U.S. approves its first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Bitcoin miners are deploying record processing power to the network in anticipation of the upcoming block subsidy halving in April 2024.
The hash rate, a measure of this deployment, recently surpassed 500 exahashes per second, a significant milestone.
Meanwhile, BTC exchange balances are declining once again, with major exchanges holding the lowest amount of BTC since April 2018, driven in part by recent regulatory actions and hacks affecting some exchanges.
Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and a well-known critic of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, recently revealed a personal anecdote about her son’s unsuccessful foray into the world of digital assets.
During a town hall meeting in Frankfurt on November 24, Lagarde disclosed that her son had suffered substantial losses from his cryptocurrency investments, despite her repeated warnings.
Lagarde recounted, with a touch of wry humor, that her son had “ignored me royally, which is his privilege,” and as a result, he ended up losing “almost all the money he had invested” in cryptocurrencies.
Although Lagarde did not specify the exact amount her son lost, she noted that he regarded it as “not a lot,” estimating that he had lost approximately 60% of his crypto investments.
Lagarde later revealed that her son reluctantly acknowledged her cautionary advice after this substantial loss.
The ECB president’s sentiments toward cryptocurrencies have been quite clear.
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She expressed her skepticism about the value of cryptocurrencies in 2022, stating that they are essentially “worth nothing” as they lack tangible backing.
In 2021, Lagarde also predicted that central banks worldwide would not be adding Bitcoin to their reserves anytime soon, reflecting her cautious stance toward digital assets.
In contrast to her criticism of cryptocurrencies, Lagarde has shown strong support for the concept of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
In April 2023, she admitted that a potential digital euro would have a “limited” scope, primarily intended for facilitating day-to-day payments.
This stance aligns with the ECB’s ongoing exploration of the feasibility and implications of launching a digital euro.
Overall, Lagarde’s personal account of her son’s crypto investment misadventures provides a glimpse into her deep-seated skepticism toward cryptocurrencies.
She firmly believes that while individuals have the freedom to invest and speculate as they choose, there should be stringent measures to prevent participation in illicit or criminal activities within the crypto space, reflecting her ongoing commitment to financial stability and regulation.
Bitcoin remained steady at around $38,000 as the week came to a close on November 26, bolstering the confidence of traders in the cryptocurrency’s price prospects.
Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin displayed its characteristic stability, with notable price fluctuations yet to materialize.
In recent days, Bitcoin had reached new heights not seen in 18 months, signaling positive indications for a potential upward trajectory.
Prominent trader and analyst Credible Crypto was among those who observed buyers effectively absorbing any selling pressure near the local price peaks.
With open interest in derivative markets staying relatively low and consistent demand for Bitcoin in the spot market, conditions appeared ripe for a potential upward movement.
Credible Crypto noted the potential for shallow dips in Bitcoin’s price due to the lack of open interest capable of triggering liquidation events, coupled with the evident demand at these price levels.
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Credible Crypto even suggested that his earlier prediction of a return to $36,900, a mere 2.1% drop from the current spot price, might not materialize as anticipated.
Another market analyst, Titan of Crypto, expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s immediate future. Using the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, Titan of Crypto identified a notable breakout in its key components, a rare occurrence in Bitcoin’s weekly chart.
The lagging span of Ichimoku, known as Chikou, which measures data from 26 weeks prior, was positioned above the price and at the top of the Kumo Cloud.
Furthermore, both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen exhibited a renewed uptrend, painting a highly promising picture for Bitcoin’s potential upward trajectory, according to Titan of Crypto.
Commenting on the price action, Titan of Crypto pointed out that recent weekly candles indicated resistance from bullish forces, as evidenced by the candle wicks pushing back against potential downward movement.
Overall, Bitcoin’s stability around the $38,000 mark, coupled with positive sentiment from prominent traders and analysts, suggested that the cryptocurrency market was poised for potential upward movement in the near future.
However, the actual direction of Bitcoin’s price remained dependent on factors such as market demand and open interest in derivative markets.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has expressed his bullish stance on Bitcoin, offering insights on the cryptocurrency’s potential trajectory.
In a recent post, accompanied by a chart illustrating net reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) and treasury general account (TGA) balance changes, Hayes humorously referred to United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as “Bad Gurl Yellen.”
Hayes urged fellow Bitcoin enthusiasts to maintain their focus, citing a notable increase in U.S. dollar liquidity.
He posited that Bitcoin’s price is likely to mirror the rise in dollar liquidity, potentially leading to an uptick in its value.
The provided chart showcases fluctuations in RRP and TGA balances, hinting at a potential correlation between heightened dollar liquidity and Bitcoin’s price.
In a parallel development, crypto analyst dharmafi offered more precise data points.
The post highlighted an RRP of $65 billion and a TGA balance of $35 billion, resulting in a substantial net liquidity surge of $106 billion since November 21.
As Hayes pointed out, this surge in liquidity reflects shifting dynamics within financial markets. Investors and Bitcoin enthusiasts closely monitoring these liquidity injections are anticipating potential repercussions for the cryptocurrency market.
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While Hayes emphasized the connection between dollar liquidity and Bitcoin’s price movement, dharmafi’s data further underscores the impact of the liquidity surge.
The substantial increase in net liquidity since November 21 has raised questions regarding its potential effects on various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
In contrast to the enthusiasm expressed by Hayes and others in the crypto space, Janet Yellen, who has been a vocal skeptic of Bitcoin, recently issued a caution to cryptocurrency exchanges.
During a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Yellen emphasized the importance of compliance within the digital currency industry.
She underlined the necessity for cryptocurrency exchanges to adhere to regulations to operate within the U.S. financial system, reinforcing her commitment to maintaining regulatory oversight in the crypto sector.
This stance by Yellen reflects ongoing discussions and debates surrounding the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States.
Australia’s tax regulator, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), has caused confusion in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space with its recent guidance indicating that capital gains tax (CGT) may apply to various everyday DeFi transactions.
The ATO’s failure to provide clear answers to inquiries from Cointelegraph has left DeFi users uncertain about their tax obligations.
According to the ATO’s guidance issued on November 9, CGT may be triggered when transferring tokens to another address or smart contract where the sender doesn’t have “beneficial ownership” or if the destination address holds a non-zero token balance.
The guidance mentions DeFi activities that could incur CGT, such as exchanging one crypto asset for a right to receive an equivalent number of the same crypto asset in the future, providing liquidity to a protocol, wrapping tokens, and loaning assets.
However, it does not explicitly clarify whether activities like liquid staking or using layer-2 bridges are subject to CGT.
The ATO responded to inquiries by stating that the tax consequences of a transaction depend on the specific steps taken on the platform or contract, as well as the individual circumstances of the taxpayer.
This vague response has left investors unable to determine how to comply with the new guidelines, which have not yet been tested in court.
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A CGT event could have significant implications for DeFi users in Australia. For instance, if a user bought ETH for $100 and later staked it or sent it through a bridge to a layer-2 network when the price was $1,000, they might need to pay tax on the $900 “profit,” even if they haven’t sold the ETH.
Liberal Party Senator Andrew Bragg criticized the lack of legislative clarity in the cryptocurrency tax rules, pointing out that the ATO has been left to make its own rules due to delays in government-commissioned findings on the matter.
Experts in the field have varying opinions on the ATO’s stance.
Some believe that a transfer via a bridge might trigger a CGT event, depending on changes in beneficial ownership, while others argue that staking contracts do not necessarily result in a CGT event as beneficial ownership remains with the user.
Critics, such as Matt Walrath, the founder of Crypto Tax Made Easy, suggest that the ATO’s rules reflect a lack of understanding of DeFi and are overly aggressive.
These rules make it more challenging for Australian DeFi users to engage in activities like staking and transferring funds to layer-2 blockchains.
In conclusion, the ATO’s unclear and potentially overreaching guidance regarding CGT on DeFi transactions has created uncertainty and complexity for Australian crypto users.
The lack of legislative guidance exacerbates the situation, leaving users and experts in a state of confusion and concern about the tax implications of their DeFi activities.
Australia’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges are gearing up for a major rally, as the number of crypto buyers begins to climb.
According to the heads of these exchanges, this upward trend is expected to gain momentum in early 2024.
Adrian Przelozny, CEO of Independent Reserve, is actively preparing for the anticipated bull market.
He recognizes the need to fortify infrastructure and expand the team in anticipation of rapid growth.
Przelozny emphasizes the importance of being well-prepared to handle the surge in business when the bull market arrives, as it tends to unfold swiftly.
Caroline Bowler, the CEO of BTC Markets, notes that market conditions have become increasingly bullish throughout the year.
She acknowledges that market gains have not followed a linear path but highlights the industry-wide growth in asset prices and technological applications as reasons for confidence.
She also points to the influx of new users, increased trading volumes, and the deployment of “dry powder” as indicators that the market is in the early stages of a bull run.
Tommy Honan, the head of product strategy at Swyftx, reports a rising trend in buying activity on their exchange.
To address recent challenges faced by the Australian crypto scene, Swyftx is swiftly improving direct debit functionality.
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Honan attributes the uptick in activity to improved market fundamentals, drawing back investors who had stayed on the sidelines during the bear market.
Jonathon Miller, the managing director of Kraken Australia, exercises caution in determining the market’s phase. He dispels the notion that the crypto market is solely in a bull or bear phase, emphasizing the existence of a gray area in between.
Miller highlights factors like the upcoming Bitcoin halving and Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade as catalysts that are catching the attention of both institutional and retail investors.
Ben Rose, the general manager of Binance Australia, refrains from making a definitive call on the arrival of a bull market.
He observes an increase in new registrations and trading activity on Binance Australia recently.
To prepare users for a potential rally and prevent FOMO buying, Binance Australia is focused on educating its users.
Rose underscores the significance of responsible onboarding and ensuring users understand the long-term benefits of cryptocurrency beyond short-term price gains.
In conclusion, Australia’s cryptocurrency exchanges are bracing themselves for what they anticipate to be a significant market rally in 2024.
While optimism prevails, caution and preparedness are key themes among these industry leaders as they navigate the unpredictable crypto landscape.
Binance’s recent $4.3-billion settlement with the United States is seen by many as the final hurdle standing in the way of the country’s securities regulator approving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
This significant development involved Binance agreeing to have Justice Department and Treasury compliance monitors oversee its operations for a period of up to five years.
These monitors will have the authority to ensure Binance’s compliance with Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and sanctions regulations, among other requirements.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has previously cited concerns about market manipulation as a reason for denying spot Bitcoin ETFs.
To gain approval for these ETFs, Binance’s market dominance needed to be addressed.
Travis Kling, the chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management, emphasized this point in a June tweet, asserting that the ETF approval was unlikely with Binance’s current level of market dominance.
Kling’s prediction prompted discussions about the relationship between BlackRock and the U.S. government in obtaining a favorable position in the spot Bitcoin ETF market.
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Some speculated whether Binance’s settlement was a strategic move by BlackRock to acquire Bitcoin at a lower cost or to eliminate competition from U.S. markets before the ETFs launch.
Furthermore, the fact that BlackRock and its competitor Vanguard collectively own 11.5% of Coinbase, a major competitor to Binance, raised suspicions about the timing of the action against Binance.
BlackRock recently met with the SEC on November 20 to present its proposal for a spot BTC ETF, outlining how it could utilize either an in-kind or in-cash redemption model for the iShares Bitcoin Trust.
Other firms like Grayscale, Fidelity, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Valkyrie, VanEck, and Bitwise are also awaiting SEC approval for their spot Bitcoin funds, indicating the growing interest in this financial product.
Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, expressed optimism about the Binance settlement, deeming it “super bullish” for the cryptocurrency industry.
However, not everyone is fixated on speculating about the implications of the Binance settlement on spot BTC ETF approvals.
Piper Alderman partner Michael Bacina suggested that it might be wise to let the speculation run its course rather than jump to conclusions about the outcome.
The future of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States remains uncertain, but these recent developments have undoubtedly added intrigue to the regulatory landscape.
Despite recent events that would typically be expected to have a severe negative impact on the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to maintain its price stability, trading near $37,000 on November 22, which is essentially unchanged from three days earlier.
This surprising performance comes in the wake of Binance’s plea deal with the U.S. government on November 21 for violating money laundering and terror financing laws.
Some speculate that entities may be manipulating Bitcoin’s price to avoid contagion, potentially through the issuance of unbacked stablecoins, especially those connected to exchanges facing regulatory scrutiny.
To gauge investor risk aversion, it’s essential to examine Bitcoin derivatives rather than focusing solely on its current price.
The U.S. government had filed indictments against Binance and its co-founder, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, on November 14, but these documents were unsealed a week later.
CZ admitted to the offenses and stepped away from Binance management as part of the deal. The penalties, including fines imposed on CZ personally, totaled over $4 billion.
Surprisingly, this news only led to a modest $50 million decline in BTC leveraged long futures contracts, with Bitcoin briefly trading down to $35,600.
On November 20, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued crypto exchange Kraken, alleging the commingling of customer funds and failure to register as a securities broker, dealer, and clearing agency.
Kraken defended itself, claiming that the SEC’s commingling accusations pertained to previously earned fees, not customer assets.
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Another potentially impactful development was the announcement by the Mt. Gox trustee, Nobuaki Kobayashi, on November 21 regarding the redemption of $47 million in trust assets and plans to initiate cash repayments to creditors in 2023.
Although no information about the sale of Bitcoin assets was provided, investors speculated that this milestone was drawing closer.
Many experienced traders and analysts had predicted a crypto market crash if Binance were indicted by the Department of Justice (DOJ).
However, the opposite seemed to be happening. Binance’s move towards compliance could increase the chances of a spot ETF approval, as it weakens the SEC’s argument about excessive market share on unregulated exchanges.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of these regulatory actions is reflected in Bitcoin derivatives markets.
Monthly futures contracts for Bitcoin are currently holding an 8% premium, indicating demand for leverage long positions, though it’s lower than the 11.5% seen in mid-November.
The options 25% delta skew, which measures arbitrage and market makers’ pricing for upside or downside protection, has remained optimistic.
In summary, despite regulatory actions and potential sell pressure from Mt. Gox, the cryptocurrency market has remained buoyant, as evidenced by derivative indicators.
The liquidation of $70 million leveraged BTC longs has further reduced the pressure from negative price fluctuations, suggesting that the path to $40,000 for Bitcoin is becoming more certain, especially with upcoming ETF decisions in January and February.