According to the persistent trader known as Il Capo of Crypto, Bitcoin, Ether, and other cryptocurrencies may be headed for “new lows,” despite their remarkable gains this year.
Il Capo, who has maintained a $12,000 BTC price target throughout the year, recently declared the end of the current bull market in a December 22nd post on X (formerly Twitter).
While Bitcoin and Ether have surged by 163% and 92%, respectively, year-to-date, as reported by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Il Capo remains skeptical, predicting a looming collapse.
They suggest that BTC/USD is likely “forming a local top here at 40k–45k” and that Ethereum (ETH) could potentially drop to the 2500s, with some altcoins experiencing their final pumps before a reversal to new lows in the coming weeks.
Il Capo’s bearish outlook coincides with significant developments in Bitcoin’s history, notably the impending approval of the first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.
Many consider this event a pivotal moment that could open the doors for institutional capital to flow into Bitcoin.
READ MORE: Solana Surges 18% in 24 Hours, Claims Fourth Spot in Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization
With a popular BTC price target of $48,000 associated with this decision expected by January 10, 2023, Il Capo’s skepticism seems to diverge from the overall bullish sentiment prevailing in the market.
In November, they already hinted at the “beginning of the end” and noted that prices were rising higher than anticipated, accompanied by extremely bullish sentiment.
Others also acknowledge the possibility of a significant correction, even in the event of a positive ETF confirmation, viewing it as a potentially healthy catalyst for the bull market.
Trading firm QCP Capital, in its final market update for 2023, speculated that a “sell the news” scenario could unfold in the second week of January, leading to topside resistance for BTC in the 45-48.5k region and a possible retracement to 36k levels before the uptrend resumes.
Despite short-term uncertainties, there is confidence that the upward trend in cryptocurrencies will eventually continue, especially as the market positions itself for a strong rally into the Bitcoin halving, albeit possibly after a few weeks of market adjustment.
As Il Capo of Crypto stands firm in their bearish perspective, the crypto community awaits the unfolding of these critical events to determine the market’s future direction.
Bitcoin remained within a tight trading range leading up to the weekly close on December 24, with a trader anticipating a potential breakout in the cryptocurrency’s price.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed that BTC/USD exhibited predominantly sideways movement throughout the weekend, a trend that had started towards the end of the Wall Street trading week.
This price stability came as Bitcoin reacted to the final United States macroeconomic data of the year, resisting volatility.
Bitcoin’s value hovered around $43,500, prompting a well-known trader and analyst named Credible Crypto to express optimism about an impending upward movement.
According to Credible Crypto, the current flat trading phase signifies an accumulation period, making it an ideal time for investors.
He noted, “It really does not get much better than this,” and emphasized the possibility of a push towards $50,000.
Credible Crypto also highlighted several factors contributing to this bullish sentiment, including the tight accumulation range, decreasing aggregate open interest (which is considered healthy), active buying on Coinbase, and nearly reset funding rates.
All of these factors suggested that Bitcoin was well-positioned for its next upward move.
However, order book data for the BTC/USDT pair on the leading global exchange, Binance, indicated a key resistance level at just below $45,000, with approximately $92 million in ask liquidity.
This resistance level would need to be overcome for Bitcoin to make significant gains.
READ MORE: Bitcoin ETF Issuers Release Crypto Ads
On the other hand, Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, offered a contrasting perspective.
He suggested that holiday trading activity might not provide enough momentum for bulls to break through the resistance.
Alan pointed out that liquidity might shift, potentially making it easier for Bitcoin to move higher.
As the year-end approached, Bitcoin’s performance in December appeared fairly average, with month-to-date gains of approximately 16% as of December 23.
However, the quarterly performance was exceptional, at 62%, marking Bitcoin’s best quarterly performance since 2020.
Market analysts and experts continued to focus on Bitcoin’s price leading up to a significant event – the expected approval of the first U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), scheduled for January 10, 2024.
Some speculate that this event could trigger a significant market reversal, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
In the meantime, traders and investors remained watchful for any signs of movement in the cryptocurrency markets.
The ongoing legal dispute concerning the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the alleged creator of Bitcoin, and the associated rights to the cryptocurrency has recently witnessed a significant development.
A British judge has rescheduled the trial pitting Craig Wright against Bitcoin Core developers for February 5th.
In 2016, Craig Wright made headlines by claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto and subsequently initiated legal action against 13 Bitcoin Core developers and several companies, including Blockstream, Coinbase, and Block.
His lawsuit alleged copyright violations regarding Bitcoin’s white paper, file format, and blockchain database.
Represented by the non-profit Cryptocurrency Open Patent Alliance (COPA), the defendants have vehemently denied these claims.
During a pre-trial review on December 15th, Justice Edward James Mellor granted Craig Wright permission to submit an additional 97 documents supporting his assertion.
These documents had purportedly been discovered on two USB drives found in a drawer at his residence in September.
Notably, these files included LaTex documents, the open-source system used for drafting the Bitcoin white paper.
However, Bitcoin developers raised concerns of fabricated evidence, metadata manipulation, and procedural delays orchestrated by Wright.
They argued that the newly revealed documents were only disclosed after they had submitted 50 pieces of evidence, which they believed demonstrated the falsification of Wright’s previous materials.
Justice Mellor, in response to these concerns, ordered Wright to make an additional payment of 800,000 pounds (approximately $1 million) by January 5th, covering the legal costs of the developers in the event of Wright’s defeat.
READ MORE: Coinbase Shares Gain Traction as Key ‘Index Play’ for Traditional Finance
Wright had already deposited 100,000 pounds ($127,000) as a security payment.
Moreover, the judge mandated that Wright pay 65,000 pounds ($82,000) to cover COPA’s expenses associated with expert evidence regarding his Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).
Wright had claimed disability due to ASD and provided a report detailing adjustments required during the trial, including a list of cross-examination questions.
Cross-examination is a process where the opposing party poses questions to scrutinize or challenge a witness’s testimony.
Wright’s request for special accommodations due to his ASD was met with opposition from the developers, who enlisted an expert to support their objections.
Consequently, Wright will only be permitted to access the LiveNote Screen and write down questions on paper during the trial.
The heart of this dispute lies in the nature of Bitcoin’s open-source code, which is freely available under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology license, allowing for its use in various applications, including proprietary ones.
Wright’s argument contends that Bitcoin Core developers form a “Bitcoin Partnership” allegedly controlling Bitcoin, a contention hotly contested by those on the opposing side of the legal battle.
On December 21, amidst Bitcoin’s struggle to breach the $45,000 resistance level, large-cap altcoins like Solana and Avalanche emerged as frontrunners in the crypto market.
Bitcoin had faced resistance at $45,000 since its initial surge on December 5, resulting in a slight pullback in its market dominance from 53.95% to 53.17%.
Meanwhile, altcoins witnessed a surge in market dominance (TOTAL2).
Technical analysts often interpret a drop in Bitcoin dominance combined with BTC’s sideways trading as a potential indicator for an altcoin breakout.
Furthermore, market sentiment is influenced by the interplay between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin’s price.
Presently, the DXY has declined by 1.56% in the month, while Bitcoin has gained 16.18% in the same period.
Many traders attribute the DXY’s reversal to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC minutes hinting at possible interest rate cuts in 2024.
With the expectation of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in Q1 2024 and the belief that the Fed’s interest rate hikes have ended, the crypto market sentiment leans toward euphoria.
READ MORE; Singapore Court Freezes Over $1 Billion in Assets of Crypto Hedge Fund Founders
Solana and Avalanche have notably surged in price during this period, with SOL becoming the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, surpassing XRP. SOL’s rise can be attributed to several factors, including improvements in the Solana network’s user experience, particularly for token and NFT launches.
Solana’s focus on mobile accessibility and low transaction costs has attracted users prioritizing ease of use over decentralization, making it a strong competitor against Ethereum.
SOL’s recent rally is further fueled by the excitement surrounding airdrops, the listing of the SPL token JITO on major exchanges, and the subsequent success it achieved, with a market capitalization exceeding $300 million shortly after launch.
Additionally, SOL’s growth is supported by the increasing adoption of decentralized applications (DApps) on the Solana network.
Over three weeks, the total value locked (TVL) in Solana surged from $654 million to $1.28 billion, marking a remarkable 96% increase.
Similar trends can be observed in the Avalanche ecosystem, where an influx of DApp users, various DeFi protocol incentives, and persistent rumors of airdrops have led to increased inflows, daily active users, and an upward trajectory in the price of AVAX.
These developments highlight the growing prominence of Solana and Avalanche as they make strides in the competitive cryptocurrency market.
In the midst of a burgeoning crypto marketing showdown, the spotlight has recently fallen on Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers who have unleashed a flurry of crypto advertisements, marking a total of three within a mere two days.
The first salvo was fired by Bitwise on December 18th when they unveiled their Bitcoin ETF advertisement.
Featuring none other than the renowned actor Jonathan Goldsmith, famous for his portrayal of the “Most Interesting Man in the World” in a Dos Equis beer campaign, this ad sought to capture the audience’s attention.
Not to be outdone, Hashdex joined the fray on December 20th with their own crypto advertisement.
Their offering featured a dumper truck emblazoned with the bold captions, “Stocks aren’t crypto, fixed income isn’t crypto, precious metals? nope, not crypto either,” before highlighting their own firm.
Bitwise, determined to maintain the momentum, swiftly responded on the same day with another short ad featuring Goldsmith.
In character, he humorously remarked, “Thought you would like to know, Satoshi sends his regards,” while continuing to promote Bitcoin.
Despite the spirited competition, the prevailing sentiment on social media was that Bitwise’s advertising campaign had emerged victorious.
READ MORE: Improbable’s Sale of The Multiplayer Group to Keywords Studios Marks Metaverse Industry Milestone
This marketing blitz by asset managers is particularly noteworthy as it reflects a high level of confidence in a financial product still awaiting regulatory approval.
Currently, there are 13 pending spot Bitcoin ETFs, with analysts estimating a 90% likelihood of approval by the SEC by January 10th.
Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3 and a Bitcoin pioneer, weighed in on the significance of these marketing campaigns for Bitcoin ETFs.
Mow emphasized that companies vying for a spot in the Bitcoin ETF space are engaged in fierce competition for investors, inflows, and assets under management, with branding as their primary weapon.
He predicted, “This battle for the Bitcoin orange glow is going to heat up like you can’t imagine.”
Mow hinted at future campaigns from industry giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, envisioning endorsements from figures like Novak Djokovic and Michael Saylor, which would further intensify the marketing frenzy surrounding Bitcoin ETFs.
On December 21st, Bitcoin made headlines as it surged to around $44,000 just before the Wall Street opening bell. Experts had been anticipating a correction in the Bitcoin price, and this move seemed to confirm their expectations.
Market data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed that Bitcoin had broken out of its one-week trading range.
A day earlier, it reached a high of $44,300 before experiencing a reversal. Despite this correction, Bitcoin had still managed to maintain a 6% increase for the week.
Stockmoney Lizards, a trading team, noted in their latest market update on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that although a correction seemed necessary, Bitcoin’s chart remained strong across all timeframes.
They also observed that Bitcoin appeared to be forming an ascending triangle with a retest of the upper resistance line around $44,000.
Like many in the crypto community, Stockmoney Lizards were closely watching the upcoming decision regarding the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), scheduled for January 10th.
They believed that Bitcoin could continue to rise until the ETF decision was announced, setting a near-term target of $48,000.
READ MORE: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval: A Potential Game-Changer on Wall Street, Says Michael Saylor
However, they also cautioned that even if the announcement was positive, it might trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
This sentiment was echoed by trading firm QCP Capital, which anticipated a “sell the news” scenario in the second week of January, regardless of the ETF outcome.
QCP Capital expected Bitcoin to face resistance in the $45,000 to $48,500 range and potentially retrace to levels around $36,000 before resuming its uptrend.
While Stockmoney Lizards considered this scenario less likely, they pointed out that the market was in a heated state and a correction could be beneficial.
They suggested that if Bitcoin dropped below $40,000, it might lead to the liquidation of leveraged long positions and a retracement towards $38,000.
Factors such as the need for a correction after a rally, year-end sales (tax loss selling), and reduced trading activity during the holidays supported this argument.
Despite these various scenarios, market data indicated that many traders were poorly positioned for Bitcoin’s recent push above $44,000.
On December 20th, over $100 million in crypto short positions were liquidated, including $38.5 million in Bitcoin short positions, according to statistics from CoinGlass.
Brazil has displaced Nigeria as the second-ranked nation in terms of Bitcoin interest, according to data from Google Trends.
El Salvador has maintained its position as the leader in this ranking.
The shift suggests a changing landscape in cryptocurrency preferences as Bitcoin’s popularity surges in Brazil, Latin America’s most populous country.
El Salvador’s continued dominance in Bitcoin interest can be attributed to its unwavering commitment to the cryptocurrency.
On December 7th, the El Salvadoran government, in collaboration with stablecoin issuer Tether, introduced the Freedom Visa program.
This initiative allows for citizenship by donation, granting residency and a pathway to citizenship to individuals contributing a $1 million donation in either Bitcoin (BTC) or Tether (USDT) to the country.
In Brazil, the country’s largest private bank, Itau Unibanco, entered the cryptocurrency arena by offering cryptocurrency services, starting with Bitcoin and Ether trading.
This move came following a series of regulatory changes in the Latin American cryptocurrency landscape.
In contrast, Nigeria has seen a shift in its cryptocurrency landscape, with a growing preference for stablecoins, particularly the USDT, over Bitcoin.
READ MORE: Solana Memecoin Trader Turns $226,000 into $1.6 Million in Just Five Days
This preference is driven by the stability of stablecoins, as they are pegged to the widely accepted U.S. dollar, offering a hedge against inflation and the devaluation of the Nigerian naira.
Stablecoins are not only chosen for their stability but also for their profitability.
According to the 2023 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report by Chainalysis, peer-to-peer trading volumes of the naira against USDT have witnessed a significant surge in 2023, more than doubling the initial rate.
Despite facing challenges, Nigeria’s cryptocurrency market continues to be a vital transactional tool in the sub-Saharan region.
However, it is gradually losing its prominence to more crypto-friendly countries such as the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil.
Nigeria remains a leader in cryptocurrency adoption in Africa and globally, experiencing an impressive 9% annual growth rate, as per a Chainalysis report.
Despite recent declines in Bitcoin interest, Nigeria remains among the top three countries with consistent growth since 2021.
As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, these rankings may see further shifts in the coming years, reflecting changing preferences and regulatory dynamics in different regions.
As anticipation builds for the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space are sharing their perspectives on how this new investment vehicle could impact the broader financial markets.
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein recently conveyed his optimism about the BTC market’s resurgence during a CNBC interview.
He noted a growing trend of investors incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios and expressed eagerness for the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Sonnenshein highlighted the potential for these ETFs to offer exposure to Bitcoin for the U.S. advisory market, which currently manages approximately $30 trillion in wealth.
Grayscale is at the forefront of efforts to secure spot Bitcoin ETF approval, having engaged in discussions with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the conversion of its flagship Bitcoin trust into an ETF.
Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, believes that ETFs could play a pivotal role in bolstering the branding and marketing of Bitcoin.
He elaborated on this in a social media thread, emphasizing how competition among asset managers for increased assets under management (AUM) would fuel an advertising battle that could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, echoed the significance of Bitcoin ETFs, describing them as the most noteworthy development on Wall Street in three decades.
READ MORE: Improbable’s Sale of The Multiplayer Group to Keywords Studios Marks Metaverse Industry Milestone
Saylor anticipates that ETFs will serve as a catalyst driving demand for Bitcoin, making it more accessible to both mainstream retail and institutional investors.
While many foresee a surge in Bitcoin’s price upon ETF approvals, some temper their expectations.
Crypto investor Anthony Pompliano views the ETF as an “ultra bullish development” but doesn’t anticipate it to trigger substantial immediate market movements.
In contrast, Bitcoin advocate Oliver Velez draws a distinction between buying Bitcoin ETFs and acquiring “real Bitcoin.” Velez argues that purchasing a spot BTC ETF is akin to acquiring “paper Bitcoin” with annual associated costs, while owning actual BTC represents a one-time expense.
Velez suggests that dedicated Bitcoin enthusiasts will prefer to hold real BTC without incurring custody fees.
In summary, the impending arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs has generated a flurry of opinions within the crypto community.
While some foresee significant benefits in terms of market exposure and branding, others remain cautious about the immediate impact on Bitcoin’s price.
The debate over the relative merits of ETFs versus owning physical Bitcoin continues to unfold as the cryptocurrency landscape evolves.
Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor believes that the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could mark the most significant development on Wall Street since the early 1990s.
In an interview with Bloomberg on December 19, Saylor expressed his enthusiasm for the prospect of a spot Bitcoin ETF, emphasizing its potential impact on the financial world.
Saylor stated, “It’s not unreasonable to suggest that this may be the biggest development on Wall Street in 30 years.
“The last thing that was this consequential was the creation of the S&P index and the ability to invest in all 500 S&P companies via one trade at the same time.”
According to Saylor, a spot Bitcoin ETF would serve as a gateway for both retail and institutional investors who have previously struggled to access a reliable channel for Bitcoin investments.
He anticipates that this ETF could trigger a significant surge in demand, followed by a “supply shock” in April when the Bitcoin halving event occurs.
“I don’t think we’ve ever seen a 2 to 10x increase in demand combined with a halving in supply in a scarce, desirable asset that people want to hold for a long period of time,” Saylor explained. As a result, he predicts that 2024 will witness a major bull run for the cryptocurrency market.
Saylor also confirmed that his company, MicroStrategy, would continue its Bitcoin investment strategy.
READ MORE: FTX Bankruptcy Drains $53,000 per Hour on Legal Fees and Advisors, Totaling $350 Million
He emphasized their commitment to finding ways to acquire more Bitcoin per share for shareholders, whether through debt, equity, or cash flows from the business.
MicroStrategy has been a pioneer in providing traditional investors with exposure to Bitcoin’s price since it began acquiring Bitcoin in 2020.
They offer leverage without charging fees, making it an attractive option for long-term Bitcoin investors.
At the time of publication, MicroStrategy owns 174,530 BTC with an average purchase price of $30,252, which is now valued at approximately $7.3 billion. This represents a $2.1 billion gain on their Bitcoin investment.
Saylor’s journey with Bitcoin has evolved significantly. A decade ago, he famously predicted the downfall of Bitcoin, a prediction that has not aged well.
However, his change of heart around 2020 led to MicroStrategy’s substantial Bitcoin investments, earning him recognition as one of the cryptocurrency’s most vocal proponents.
Bitcoin analyst Dylan LeClair praised Saylor for his ability to adapt, stating, “The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.”
In retrospect, Bitcoin’s price was just $677 on December 19, 2013, when Saylor made his initial prediction.
By the time MicroStrategy entered the market in August 2020, Bitcoin had surged to around $11,650, marking an 18-fold increase from his earlier prediction.
In conclusion, Michael Saylor’s endorsement of a potential spot Bitcoin ETF highlights the growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies and their significance in the financial world, showcasing the dynamic nature of the digital asset space.
In a recent development, a U.S. appeals court has successfully completed the legal proceedings required to officially seize 69,370 Bitcoins and various other cryptocurrencies linked to the now-defunct dark web marketplace, Silk Road.
In a court filing dated December 20th, the U.S. District Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit has affirmed the transfer of these seized Bitcoins into federal custody.
This decision builds upon a previous ruling that recognized the government’s rightful claim to the digital assets connected to Silk Road’s illegal activities.
Aside from Bitcoin, the confiscated cryptocurrency holdings also encompassed Bitcoin Gold (BTG), Bitcoin SV (BSV), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
This marks a significant development in the ongoing legal battle surrounding Silk Road’s ill-gotten digital wealth.
The legal saga began in earnest when the U.S. court issued its initial judgment on Silk Road’s Bitcoin holdings back in August.
This followed the U.S. Justice Department’s actions in 2020 when it seized the cryptocurrency and sought its official forfeiture.
At the time, the total value of the seized Bitcoin exceeded an astonishing $1 billion.
READ MORE: FTX Bankruptcy Drains $53,000 per Hour on Legal Fees and Advisors, Totaling $350 Million
The initial complaint filed in 2020 detailed how the U.S. government had gained control of the cryptocurrency, which was initially surrendered by an individual known as “Individual X.”
This individual had successfully hacked into Silk Road and taken control of its financial assets.
Previous reports from Cointelegraph have identified the Silk Road hacker as James Zhong, who is now 32 years old and was sentenced to a year in federal prison in April.
On July 12th, a cryptocurrency wallet linked to the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) carried out several transactions, moving approximately 9,825.25 Bitcoins valued at around $299 million, all tied to Silk Road.
The crypto community closely monitored these transactions, as speculations swirled about the potential impact of any substantial sale by the U.S. government on Bitcoin’s price.
Silk Road, established and operated by Ross Ulbricht from 2011 to 2013, was notorious for facilitating the sale of illegal drugs and weapons.
Following Ulbricht’s arrest in late 2013, the FBI shut down the platform.
In a surprising turn of events in 2022, Ulbricht agreed to use $3 billion worth of stolen Bitcoins to settle his debt to the U.S. government and also waived his claim to the 69,470 Bitcoins in question.