Nearly half of Bitcoin options traders are betting on a six-figure price for BTC by the end of 2024, with some anticipating a surge to $150,000, despite its recent dip to $90,000, according to onchain data.
“Interestingly, the likelihood of BTC exceeding $100,000 has risen to 45% from last week’s 34%, with a new 4% probability of surpassing $150,000,” noted Nick Forster, founder of the onchain options DeFi protocol, in a Nov. 26 markets report.
Strong demand for Bitcoin options
Forster highlighted that the high demand for Bitcoin options, especially calls betting on price increases, “signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”
Data from Derive shows that 41.3% of contracts traded were calls, while 38.3% were puts betting Bitcoin would drop, with “very few sellers.”
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is priced at $92,680, down 7.02% from its peak near $100,000, which topped out at $99,541, according to CoinMarketCap.
The data indicates Bitcoin has a 68% chance of ending 2024 between $81,493 and $115,579.
However, there’s only a 5% chance of it falling below $70,000 to $68,429 or rising as high as $137,645.
Analysts warn of potential pullbacks
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju cautioned on Nov. 26 that even in a “parabolic bull run, Bitcoin can see -30% pullbacks.”
Ju noted that similar corrections “repeatedly occurred” during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin surged from $17,000 to $64,000.
“This isn’t a call for a correction — just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market,” Ju advised.
Meanwhile, prominent crypto analyst PlanC expressed optimism about Bitcoin consolidating around $90,000.
“It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s,” PlanC stated, adding that such consolidation would be “the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market.”
Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 faced a setback as sellers gained control, pushing its price below $93,000.
Margin traders holding long positions suffered significant losses, with total crypto market liquidations on the buy side reaching $337.6 million in the past 24 hours.
The liquidations-driven sell-off is evident in volume-by-side data from major centralized exchanges, which shows a sharp increase in selling activity, especially on platforms offering perpetual futures trading.
Apart from forced liquidations, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) contributed to the selling pressure.
Glassnode identified the 6-month to 12-month LTH cohort as the primary sellers, taking profits on their positions with an average cost basis about 71% lower than the market price (~$57,900).
“With Bitcoin surging from $74,000 to $99,000, they capitalized big on the rally.”
Market dynamics remain a balance between buyers and sellers, but today’s price action shifted from bullish spot and leveraged long sentiment to bearish momentum.
As liquidations accelerated and Bitcoin’s price approached $90,000, an increase in short positions was observed, driving the BTC funding rate from 0.019 to a peak of 0.04.
Liquidation map data now indicates that a Bitcoin price dip below $94,000 could trigger another wave of forced selling down to $90,000.
Some traders view this level as an opportunity to place bids, anticipating a potential rebound in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The saga of James Howells and his $716 million (£569 million) Bitcoin fortune, lost in a Welsh landfill nearly a decade ago, has taken a surprising twist.
Halfina Eddy-Evans, Howells’ former partner, revealed that she disposed of the hard drive containing 8,000 Bitcoin at his request.
In an interview with the Daily Mail, Eddy-Evans stated, “Losing it was not [her] fault,” explaining that she only threw the hard drive away because Howells asked her to.
Howells’ story serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of managing digital assets like cryptocurrencies and the importance of proper custody to prevent financial loss.
One hard drive, a million-dollar mistake
In 2013, Howells accidentally disposed of the hard drive while clearing old computer parts.
Bitcoin’s value was far lower at the time, and the potential fortune stored on the drive went unnoticed.
According to Eddy-Evans, she took the hard drive to a landfill after being “begged” to remove unwanted belongings.
It wasn’t until later that Howells realized the drive held 8,000 Bitcoin he mined in 2009, back when Bitcoin was worth less than $1 per token.
Today, the cryptocurrency is valued at over $94,000, making the lost assets worth more than $716 million.
Legal and environmental hurdles
Howells has since appealed to Newport City Council multiple times to allow excavation of the landfill, but his requests have been denied.
The council cited environmental risks and logistical challenges in sifting through 110,000 tons of waste.
Despite rejections, Howells proposed funding the excavation himself and pledged to donate 10% of recovered funds to the council, but his offers were also declined.
Now, Howells is suing the council for £495 million ($647 million) in damages over the refusal.
Lessons in crypto custody
This case underscores the importance of secure storage for cryptocurrency holders.
Whether using online wallets, app-based wallets, or hardware wallets, it’s vital to store private keys and recovery phrases securely.
Multiple copies in safe deposit boxes or encrypted storage can prevent catastrophic losses and ensure long-term financial safety.
Bitcoin pulled back after failing to surpass the $100,000 milestone on Nov. 24, triggering one of the largest weekend crypto liquidation events in over six months.
Over the last 24 hours, more than $470 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated.
Long and short liquidations amounted to $352.6 million and $119.9 million, respectively, with altcoins contributing the majority of wiped positions, according to CoinGlass data.
A total of $472.5 million in long and short positions were liquidated as Bitcoin fell short of the $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) accounted for $108.9 million worth of liquidations combined.
Dogecoin (DOGE), XRP, and Stellar (XLM) followed with liquidations of $33.1 million, $27.6 million, and $21.6 million, respectively.
Other significant liquidations included Solana (SOL), Sandbox (SAND), Polkadot (DOT), and Cardano (ADA).
Across Nov. 23–24, several altcoins from the 2020–2021 cycle posted unexpected gains, with XLM surging by as much as 50%.
DOGE also reached its highest price since May 2021, the same month it hit its all-time high, according to CoinGecko data.
Industry analyst Miles Deutscher commented, “More traders from the last cycle are re-opening their crypto wallets for the first time in a while and re-investing in tokens they’re familiar with.”
Others suggest that utility tokens may be trading below fair value in a market where Bitcoin and memecoins have led the way.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $97,790, down 2% from its all-time high of $99,645 on Nov. 22, when it came close to breaking $100,000.
Since Nov. 5, when Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 44%.
Bitcoin dominance now stands at 56.2% of the total crypto market cap, valued at $3.46 trillion, CoinGecko data shows.
Bitcoin approached a “pivotal low” on Nov. 24 as manipulative traders worked to keep the $100,000 milestone out of reach.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action moving closer to $97,000.
After struggling to break through sellers just below $100,000, BTC/USD experienced order book “spoofing” over the weekend.
This involved ask liquidity walls designed to push the market lower toward support.
“Ask liquidity moving lower with price $99.5K–$99K (ask walls). Fresh ask wall right above price here which likely was removed already ~ Spoofing on the ask,” explained Skew, a popular trader, in his latest analysis on X.
“This spoofing often in illiquid hours forces bots to sell, leading to lower prices.”
Bid liquidity was observed around $95,000, with $97,300 forming the “pivotal low” in recent days.
Skew added, “Will be looking for signs of passive buyers.”
Meanwhile, long-term holders realized record profits on Nov. 22 when Bitcoin hit its latest all-time high of $99,800.
Maartunn, an analyst at CryptoQuant, reported a daily realized profit of $443 million.
“Unrealized Profit levels are elevated, currently sitting at 57%,” Maartunn noted in a Nov. 23 post.
“This is approaching the March 2024 peak of 69%, signaling an increased probability of a price correction.”
Earlier reports suggested traders’ pullback targets for BTC include $90,000 and lower.
Analyst retains $175,000 BTC price target
Caleb Franzen, creator of Cubic Analytics, remains bullish despite current challenges.
In a Nov. 23 blog post, he reaffirmed his $175,000 BTC price target for 2025, stating that the Bitcoin bull market is “right on schedule.”
“Sure, we’re tracking towards my target… But Bitcoin still needs to gain +77% to get there,” Franzen wrote.
An accompanying chart compared this year’s bull market performance to previous cycles.
Global investment manager Van Eck has reiterated its $180,000 price target for Bitcoin at the peak of the current cycle.
In its latest Bitcoin report released on Nov. 21, Van Eck digital asset analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel stated that the crypto bull market is “just beginning.”
They predicted that an increasingly favorable U.S. regulatory environment and rising institutional interest could propel Bitcoin (BTC) to $180,000 within 18 months.
The analysts, along with other market observers, pointed to Donald Trump’s election victory as a key catalyst behind Bitcoin’s recent surge to as high as $99,800 in the past 24 hours.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $98,500, just 1.5% away from breaking the $100,000 milestone, according to TradingView data.
High Funding Rates and Market Dynamics
Van Eck analysts noted that Bitcoin entered a “new phase” on Nov. 11, as funding rates on perpetual futures contracts exceeded 10%.
Elevated funding rates on BTC futures contracts. Source: Van Eck
“This shift points toward stronger short- to medium-term momentum, as historically, elevated funding rates have been linked to higher 30 to 90-day returns, reflecting heightened bullish sentiment and demand,” they explained.
However, the analysts cautioned that sustained elevated funding rates signal a transition to a less favorable environment for long-term returns.
“On average, purchases made on days when funding rates were above 10% began underperforming at the 180-day mark, with this trend becoming even more pronounced over 1-year and 2-year periods.”
Several analysts have expressed confidence in Bitcoin breaching $100,000, with some predicting it could occur within a week.
Others believe it will surpass the milestone by the end of the year, supported by current bullish market conditions.
The Washington, DC-based advocacy group Blockchain Association sent a letter to President-elect Donald Trump on Nov. 22, urging him to prioritize cryptocurrency and blockchain regulatory reform during his first 100 days in office.
The letter, shared on the Association’s website, outlines a five-point plan aimed at transforming federal oversight of the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors to foster growth and innovation.
“For years, American crypto innovators have been targeted and, in some cases, driven offshore by a hostile regulatory regime,” the Association wrote, adding:
“Your arrival in Washington, D.C., has the potential to change that reality.”
Crypto Reform Plan
The Association’s five-point plan calls for a comprehensive overhaul of crypto regulations but does not address potential challenges such as congressional gridlock.
The first point emphasizes creating a framework for digital assets that fosters innovation while protecting consumers.
The group also urged the administration to end the current policy of “regulation by enforcement.”
The second and third recommendations include stopping the debanking of cryptocurrency businesses and appointing a new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair to “roll back SAB 121,” a staff bulletin perceived as anti-crypto.
The Association also called for leadership changes at the Treasury and IRS.
Recent reports suggest Trump is considering figures like former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary.
If selected, Warsh could potentially transition to Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 when Jerome Powell’s term ends.
The final recommendation advocates for the establishment of a crypto advisory council to collaborate with Congress and federal agencies.
Reports indicate Trump’s team is already discussing forming an official White House role focused on cryptocurrency regulation.
This initiative highlights the growing importance of crypto in U.S. policy under the incoming administration.
Bitcoin remains on track to hit the $100,000 milestone despite concerns surrounding Friday’s near $2.7 billion options expiry, which raised fears of a potential correction below $85,000.
On Nov. 22 at 8:00 am UTC, over $2.67 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts expired, with a “max pain” point of $85,000, as highlighted in a Nov. 21 post from Deribit exchange.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $99,523 at 7:30 am UTC, just 30 minutes before the options expiry, but subsequently dipped to $97,805, according to Cointelegraph data.
BTC/USD Performance
Despite the short-term pullback, the $2.6 billion options expiry is unlikely to significantly disrupt Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, according to Blake Player, head of growth at VALR.
He told Cointelegraph:
“Options expiring reflects a reduction in open interest and correspondingly leverage in the market. I don’t expect this to have a significant impact on price as those looking to stay long or short are able to purchase new options or take out positions elsewhere.”
Decreasing leverage may benefit Bitcoin’s continued rise.
Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, noted on Nov. 12 that deleveraging in the crypto market is essential before Bitcoin can breach $100,000.
Strong ETF Inflows Boost Optimism
Bitcoin’s march toward $100,000 is supported by record-breaking stablecoin inflows to crypto exchanges, which reached $9.7 billion on Nov. 22.
This reflects increasing market confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory, particularly leading into 2025.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, predicts Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by the end of November.
Additionally, more than $1 billion in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is further fueling the rally to new highs.
Bitcoin has made history with its largest monthly price increase ever, as it inches closer to a six-figure valuation for the first time.
In November, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 40.8%, reaching $99,000 and marking a record-breaking monthly candle, according to Bitstamp data.
This milestone comes just two weeks after Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, which reignited investor interest in risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Analysts are increasingly optimistic that Bitcoin will soon breach the $100,000 mark.
On Nov. 22, stablecoin inflows to crypto exchanges hit a record monthly high of $9.7 billion, signaling strong market confidence in Bitcoin’s price trajectory as 2025 approaches.
November’s Bullish Momentum
November, historically Bitcoin’s most bullish month, has delivered average returns of over 46%, according to CoinGlass data.
With eight days remaining in the month, Bitcoin could see further gains.
Investor sentiment also reflects growing optimism.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 88, indicating “extreme greed,” up from 85 last week, per CoinMarketCap data.
However, past instances of high greed scores have preceded market corrections.
For example, when the index hit 80 in April 2024, Bitcoin dropped 18% over three weeks, from above $69,135 to a low near $56,500.
Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Inflation
The anticipated move to $100,000 is fueled by Bitcoin’s utility as a hedge against inflation, explained Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone.
“Buying Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation makes fundamental sense, since BTC as an asset has 0% inflation thanks to stiff supply,” Kazmierczak stated, emphasizing its value compared to gold.
Despite the bullish outlook, industry leaders like Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek caution that market deleveraging may be necessary before Bitcoin surpasses $100,000.
The path to six figures may not be without volatility, but optimism remains high as Bitcoin’s utility and market momentum continue to grow.
MicroStrategy has successfully completed a $3 billion offering of 0% convertible senior notes due in December 2029, with plans to use some or all of the proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin.
The company announced this milestone as its shares experienced a 25% retracement on Nov. 21, according to Google Finance data.
The convertible senior notes carry a 55% premium with an implied strike price of around $672, which is the predetermined price at which holders can buy or sell MicroStrategy’s Class A common stock.
These notes, sold at a discount, will mature to their face value if not converted before the due date.
They also hold seniority over common stock, giving priority to bondholders in case of bankruptcy or liquidation.
If MicroStrategy allocates the entire $3 billion toward Bitcoin purchases, it could acquire approximately 30,600 BTC.
This offering follows a Nov. 18 announcement of a $1.75 billion raise, later increased to $2.6 billion on Nov. 20.
These efforts are part of the company’s ambitious “21/21” plan to raise $42 billion—split evenly between equity and fixed-income securities—to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Currently, MicroStrategy holds 331,200 BTC, valued at over $32.7 billion, making it the largest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies, according to Saylor Tracker.
Market Reaction and Performance
MicroStrategy shares (MSTR) dropped over 25%, from $536.7 to $397.28, by market close on Nov. 21.
Despite the decline, MSTR remains one of the top-performing U.S. stocks in 2024, boasting a 480% year-to-date increase.
On Nov. 20, MSTR was the second-most traded stock in the U.S., as investors evaluated its Bitcoin exposure.
Michael Saylor’s firm also contributed to a record $70 billion trading volume on Nov. 21, involving Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN).
Bitcoin is currently priced at $98,423, just 1.5% shy of the $100,000 milestone, according to CoinGecko data.