Crypto asset manager Bitwise’s head of alpha strategies, Jeff Park, has predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $92,000 if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency in November.
In an Oct. 22 post on X, Park wrote that by charting Bitcoin’s price against Trump’s odds on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, and using “merger arb-style probability math,” there is a strong chance of Bitcoin surging after a Trump victory.
“I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000,” Park wrote.
Park’s bullish forecast adds to a growing number of analysts and market watchers expecting a Trump win to drive up crypto prices. Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman echoed this sentiment, telling Cointelegraph that a Trump victory could see Bitcoin reach $100,000. “His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board,” Finman said.
Crypto’s connection to the election has never been so pronounced, with Trump making pro-crypto policies a central part of his 2024 campaign. In a bid to attract single-issue crypto voters, he has promised to transform the U.S. into the “crypto capital of the world” and pledged to remove Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler from his position on “day one” of his presidency.
However, not everyone is convinced that a Trump win would benefit the crypto market in the long run. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who supports Kamala Harris, told Cointelegraph that while a Trump victory may cause the crypto markets to “pump for a few weeks,” they are likely to decline afterward. Cuban noted that several of Trump’s economic proposals, including controversial import tariffs, could be highly inflationary, potentially hindering Bitcoin’s performance over time.
Currently, Harris holds a narrow 1.8% lead over Trump in national polls, according to data from 538 polls.
Bitcoin is now navigating two crucial support levels after bouncing back from 10-day lows. On Oct. 24, Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, highlighted an old resistance level from April 2021, which is now acting as support.
The $65,000 mark has become a key level that Bitcoin must hold. After reaching $69,000 for the first time since the summer, Bitcoin faced a retracement, but sellers were unable to maintain control for long. Following the Oct. 23 Wall Street open, a surge in stop-loss orders caused a brief acceleration of the downward momentum, taking BTC/USD down to $65,000 — its lowest point since Oct. 10. However, a quick rebound brought the price back above $67,000.
In doing so, Bitcoin managed to stay above the 21-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $62,700. Alan noted that avoiding any dips below this level would indicate that the short-term uptrend remains intact. This recent low also aligned closely with Bitcoin’s old all-time high from April 2021, which was $64,950 on Bitstamp, rather than the higher peak in November that year.
“Thursday brought us a solid test of the Mid-Cycle Top, and now it’s closely correlated with the 21-Week MA,” Alan said, adding, “Let’s see if BTC can hold above that technical support through the weekly close.” His chart highlighted key areas of interest and trading signals provided by Material Indicators’ proprietary tools.
With the US presidential election and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision looming in two weeks, risk markets, including crypto, expect heightened volatility.
Further complicating matters, upcoming macroeconomic data, such as the Oct. 24 Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and weekly jobless claims, may also impact BTC price action. Material Indicators warned that a “hot Jobless Report” could trigger a market reversal and invalidate the latest bullish signals if Bitcoin falls below $65,000.
Meanwhile, some traders remain optimistic. “Stop losses and liquidations hit, we even went a bit lower due to slippage mostly,” trader CrypNuevo posted, expressing hope that the price action will stabilize as support is regained.
Bitcoin institutional investors have hit pause on their recent buying spree as BTC price action settles into a consolidation phase.
Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) turned net negative for the first time in two weeks, according to data from various sources, including UK-based investment firm Farside Investors.
The cooling interest in Bitcoin ETFs comes as BTC/USD hovers within 10% of its all-time high.
On Oct. 22, U.S. ETF inflows flipped net negative, with a total outflow of $79.1 million for the day.
This downturn was driven by one product, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, which saw outflows of $134 million. In contrast, other ETF products had either inflows or no activity at all, Farside data showed.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), the largest by assets under management, recorded $43 million in inflows — significantly lower than the $329 million from the previous day.
Commentator WhalePanda noted the situation on X, remarking, “Price just going sideways around $67k.”
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
The last time U.S. ETFs experienced net negative flows was on Oct. 10, when $81.1 million was withdrawn.
Over the past month, ETFs have been a major focal point in the crypto markets.
As Cointelegraph reported, institutional ownership through ETFs now accounts for about 20% of the market, as per data shared on Oct. 18 by Ki Young Ju, co-founder of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Ki added, “Thanks to spot ETFs, 1,179 institutions have joined Bitcoin’s cap table this year.”
European investors have also shown interest, allocating more than $100 million to U.S. ETF products year-to-date.
Last week, net inflows for U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $20 billion for the first time, with total assets under management reaching a record $65 billion.
In a joint research report with Coinbase, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode called the surge in ETF interest “one of the biggest stories in the market.”
The report highlighted that in Q3, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw over $5 billion in net inflows, reflecting robust demand for direct exposure to Bitcoin from institutional investors.
“These ETFs have become key drivers of liquidity and accessibility, making it easier for a broader range of market participants to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of direct ownership,” Glassnode noted.
Bitcoin institutional investors have hit pause on their recent buying spree as BTC price action settles into a consolidation phase.
Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) turned net negative for the first time in two weeks, according to data from various sources, including UK-based investment firm Farside Investors.
The cooling interest in Bitcoin ETFs comes as BTC/USD hovers within 10% of its all-time high.
On Oct. 22, U.S. ETF inflows flipped net negative, with a total outflow of $79.1 million for the day.
This downturn was driven by one product, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, which saw outflows of $134 million. In contrast, other ETF products had either inflows or no activity at all, Farside data showed.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), the largest by assets under management, recorded $43 million in inflows — significantly lower than the $329 million from the previous day.
Commentator WhalePanda noted the situation on X, remarking, “Price just going sideways around $67k.”
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
The last time U.S. ETFs experienced net negative flows was on Oct. 10, when $81.1 million was withdrawn.
Over the past month, ETFs have been a major focal point in the crypto markets.
As Cointelegraph reported, institutional ownership through ETFs now accounts for about 20% of the market, as per data shared on Oct. 18 by Ki Young Ju, co-founder of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Ki added, “Thanks to spot ETFs, 1,179 institutions have joined Bitcoin’s cap table this year.”
European investors have also shown interest, allocating more than $100 million to U.S. ETF products year-to-date.
Last week, net inflows for U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $20 billion for the first time, with total assets under management reaching a record $65 billion.
In a joint research report with Coinbase, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode called the surge in ETF interest “one of the biggest stories in the market.”
The report highlighted that in Q3, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw over $5 billion in net inflows, reflecting robust demand for direct exposure to Bitcoin from institutional investors.
“These ETFs have become key drivers of liquidity and accessibility, making it easier for a broader range of market participants to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of direct ownership,” Glassnode noted.
A European Central Bank (ECB) paper published earlier this month, which stopped just short of labeling Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme, has faced strong backlash from a group of crypto academics.
The paper criticized Bitcoin’s volatility, limited productive contribution, and wealth concentration, calling them significant flaws, according to Murray Rudd of the Bitcoin advocacy organization Satoshi Action Fund.
In a detailed rebuttal released on Oct. 22, the academics critiqued the Oct. 12 ECB working paper authored by Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf, which sparked outrage among cryptocurrency supporters.
The rebuttal argued that “methodological weaknesses and personal or institutional biases” undermined the ECB paper’s credibility and failed to provide a balanced analysis of Bitcoin’s utility or future prospects.
Rudd noted that the ECB’s assessment dismissed Bitcoin’s long-term viability and societal benefits, while promoting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as a superior alternative for modern financial systems.
Rudd also claimed that the ECB report misrepresented Bitcoin’s primary purpose by stating it had shifted from a payment method to an investment vehicle. Additionally, he said the authors misunderstood Bitcoin’s technological foundations, particularly in relation to proof-of-work and decentralization.
“By focusing on the early limitations, Bindseil and Schaaf fail to acknowledge the significant progress made in improving its scalability and efficiency,” Rudd added.
The rebuttal highlighted flawed arguments, including claims about wealth concentration, which ignored that many large wallets belong to exchanges managing funds for millions of users.
The ECB’s critique of Bitcoin’s volatility was also deemed shortsighted, as it failed to recognize volatility as a characteristic typical of early-stage technology adoption.
Rudd argued that the paper overlooked Bitcoin’s utility as a store of value and dismissed the broader implications of inflation within traditional financial systems, using the U.S. dollar’s declining purchasing power as an example.
The rebuttal also pointed out a conflict of interest, noting the ECB authors’ involvement in developing a digital euro.
“Given the ECB’s strategic focus on developing a CBDC, it is reasonable to infer that the authors, at best, have a vested interest in portraying Bitcoin as an inferior, speculative asset,” the rebuttal stated.
The academics emphasized Bitcoin’s potential benefits, such as financial inclusion, cross-border payments, and innovations in energy efficiency.
Responding to the criticism, Bindseil noted that the rebuttal seemed to broadly defend Bitcoin rather than address specific points from the October 2024 paper. Schaaf also denied that their paper promoted CBDCs as a superior solution, stating that CBDCs were not even mentioned.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has strongly criticized MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor’s recent suggestion that crypto users should rely on big banks to custody Bitcoin.
In response to an Oct. 22 post by Casa’s chief security officer Jameson Lopp, who was advocating for self-custody, Buterin said, “I’ll happily say that I think Saylor’s comments are batshit insane.”
This criticism adds to the growing backlash against Saylor, who on Oct. 21 recommended that Bitcoin holders should trust “too big to fail” banks engineered to handle financial assets, a stance that seems to contradict his previous support for self-custody.
Buterin argued that Saylor appeared to be advocating for a form of “regulatory capture” to secure crypto, suggesting that investment firms like BlackRock and Fidelity could hold Bitcoin with backing from lawmakers and law enforcement.
He added, “There’s plenty of precedent for how this strategy can fail, and for me, it’s not what crypto is about.”
During an interview with financial reporter Madison Reidy, Saylor had also criticized “crypto-anarchists,” cautioning that unregulated entities that avoid government oversight, taxes, or reporting requirements could increase the risk of Bitcoin seizure.
The backlash against Saylor’s comments has been mounting.
Lopp emphasized the importance of self-custody for Bitcoin holders and for the strength of the network, stating, “It’s important for the continued strengthening and improvement of the entire network.”
On Oct. 22, ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees joined the criticism, noting that the ability to withdraw Bitcoin into self-custody acts as a “check that prevents the centralization and corruption inevitable under any other arrangement.”
He further added, “For Saylor to so casually dismiss this fundamental precept is wholly inappropriate and deserves the backlash.”
In an earlier interview with Blockware analyst Joe Burnett, Saylor had argued in favor of centralized custodians for crypto.
This was just three weeks after the collapse of FTX, where users lost their Bitcoin left on the platform, as noted by Blockware in an Oct. 22 post.
Bitcoin retail activity is showing signs of a revival, resembling patterns seen during the run-up to all-time highs earlier this year, according to new data.
In an Oct. 21 Quicktake blog post, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported a 13% increase in transactions valued at under $1,000, indicating growing retail investor activity.
Bitcoin retail interest, which had significantly declined following March’s peak for BTC/USD, appears to be gradually returning.
Despite limited mainstream attention outside of institutional circles, as reflected by metrics such as Google search trends, transaction volume figures suggest a shift may be underway.
“In the last 30 days, retail demand grew by about 13%, highlighting a scenario that was only seen in March, when we were close to the last historical high,” noted CryptoQuant contributor Cauê Oliveira.
He added, “Note that in the last 4 months we have seen a decrease in the activity of these small investors, while whales maintained a high amount of transactions and absorption of coins.”
Bitcoin retail investor volume. Source: CryptoQuant
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals that BTC/USD climbed nearly 10% over the 30 days leading up to Oct. 20, while transaction volumes for amounts under $1,000 rose by 13% during the same period.
The trend resembles the weeks leading up to the March peak, according to Oliveira, who stated, “This recent rise in Bitcoin is causing small investors to return to trading, signaling the beginning of a pattern of lower risk aversion.”
Risk aversion remains a central theme for many market watchers.
Global liquidity trends are fueling a broader appetite for risk, with expectations that the trend will strengthen through the U.S. presidential election and beyond.
“Both BTC and ETH have yet to clear July highs but are closing in on key 70k and 2800 resistance levels,” QCP Capital wrote in its Oct. 22 bulletin to Telegram subscribers.
“A break above these levels is likely to attract massive retail attention. With the US elections just 15 days away and equities looking strong, the market is definitely optimistic as Risk Reversals have flipped in favour of Calls across all tenors.”
However, U.S. retail interest in Bitcoin remains muted.
CryptoQuant’s data indicates that the Coinbase premium — the pricing difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance — is barely positive, even as BTC approaches its highest weekly close since early June.
Crypto has emerged as a key issue in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with many in the industry supporting former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump due to his pro-crypto policy stance, which is seen as a potential driver for growth in the sector.
As opinion polls suggest a close race, some crypto traders, like Satoshi Flipper, argue that the potential impact of a Trump victory has not yet been fully priced into the market.
Satoshi Flipper believes that if Republicans win, it would strengthen the ongoing bull market for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have also shown growing support for Trump, with his victory probability rising to around 60%, sparking concerns about possible manipulation, though proponents of prediction markets, such as Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour, dispute this notion.
Teen Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman expressed optimism about a Trump victory, telling Cointelegraph that it would create a pro-crypto environment in the U.S. and attract significant investment in the crypto markets.
Finman stated, “His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board,” and predicted that “if Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could hit $100,000 during his second term.”
Pseudonymous analyst Crypto Rand added, “The most bullish aspect of the Trump administration is simply his non-hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies. This attitude alone is a game-changer.”
However, not everyone shares this optimism.
Businessman Mark Cuban, who supports Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, argued that even if crypto markets initially “pump for a few weeks” following a Trump win, his economic policies could ultimately be inflationary and hinder Bitcoin’s price performance.
Trump has promised several pro-crypto policies, including firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler “on day one.”
While experts say he may not be able to do this directly, he could demote Gensler and nominate a new, more crypto-friendly candidate, subject to Senate approval.
Basel Ismail, CEO of Blockcircle, believes a new SEC chair supportive of crypto would boost Bitcoin adoption and pave the way for altcoin resurgence.
With several altcoin ETFs, including XRP and Solana, awaiting approval, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas suggested that a Trump-appointed SEC commissioner might expedite the process.
Trump’s ambitious pro-crypto vision includes making the U.S. the “world capital of crypto” and establishing a crypto advisory council, which Crypto Rand sees as a highly significant yet overlooked commitment.
MicroStrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, faced backlash over recent comments suggesting that Bitcoin custodianship is better handled by “too big to fail” financial institutions rather than through self-custody, a practice he previously endorsed.
In an Oct. 21 interview with financial reporter Madison Reidy, Saylor controversially argued that Bitcoin holders “have nothing to lose” by transferring their assets to institutions.
This view seemed to contradict Saylor’s earlier advocacy for self-custody, making it a contentious point within the crypto community.
When asked about the possibility of the U.S. government stripping Bitcoin holders of self-custody rights, similar to how private gold ownership was made illegal in 1933, Saylor dismissed the concern, labeling those who fear state-sanctioned seizure as “paranoid crypto-anarchists.”
He added, “It’s a myth and a trope that goes on over and over again,” and emphasized that “there’s just a lot of fear that’s unnecessary.”
Saylor suggested that instead of using hardware wallets, Bitcoin holders should rely on major banks that are “engineered to be custodians of financial assets.”
His stance sparked criticism from Bitcoin advocates.
“Saylor is on a mission to relegate Bitcoin into an investment pet rock and halt its usage as a currency,” said “Sina,” founder of Bitcoin custody firm 21st Capital.
Simon Dixon, author of “Bank to the Future,” speculated that Saylor’s shift in position could be tied to MicroStrategy’s long-term plan to become a Bitcoin bank offering collateralized loans.
“Bitcoin anarchists: keep helping people gain freedom from banks, governments & central banks,” Dixon urged.
John Carvalho, CEO of Bitcoin payments firm Synonym, also criticized Saylor’s change in tone, pointing out that Saylor used to claim “Bitcoin is hope” for everyone.
He questioned what Saylor meant by that statement if he now dismissed “paranoid crypto-anarchists” as having ulterior motives.
Following the FTX collapse in November 2022, Saylor had advocated for Bitcoin self-custody, arguing that it prevented powerful custodians from corrupting the network: “In systems where there is no self-custody, the custodians accumulate too much power and then they can abuse that power.”
He even encouraged people to remember their 12-word seed phrase and to “tell people to ‘f*** themselves’ if they come for you.”
Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives hit a record high on Oct. 21, as Bitcoin’s price approached the $70,000 level. CoinGlass reported that the open interest on Bitcoin futures reached $40.5 billion, indicating a surge in activity for BTC derivatives.
Open interest represents the value or number of outstanding futures contracts that have not yet expired. It reflects the amount of capital invested in Bitcoin derivatives, with higher OI often signaling increased leverage and potential volatility in the market.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) held the largest share of open interest, accounting for 30.7%, followed by Binance with 20.4% and Bybit at 15%.
Periods of high open interest can lead to significant market swings. If prices change rapidly, it may trigger cascading liquidations, resulting in forced selling and sharp price drops, commonly known as “flush outs.” The last major flush-out occurred in early August when Bitcoin’s price plummeted nearly 20%, or about $12,000, within two days, falling below $50,000.
On Oct. 21, Bitcoin reached a high of $69,380, according to TradingView data, but was rejected at this resistance level, pulling back to $69,033 at the time of publication. CoinGecko data indicates that Bitcoin is currently 6.4% below its all-time high of $73,738.
Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 20 that if Bitcoin surpasses the $70,000 mark, it could boost the performance of altcoins like Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL). Both assets have been outperforming Bitcoin in daily gains, with Ether climbing 3.5% to exceed $2,750, while Solana gained 6%, reaching nearly $170 in early trading on Oct. 21. However, both assets experienced slight pullbacks since then.
The record-setting open interest highlights growing market activity and suggests that traders are positioning for potential significant moves in Bitcoin’s price.