BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF) has swiftly ascended into the upper echelon of U.S.-issued ETF products, ranking in the top 0.16%.
As of February 5th, the ETF has attracted over $3.19 billion in inflows, trailing only behind broad index funds tracking the S&P 500 and Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF, as reported by Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg.
Remarkably, within just 17 days since its inception, $IBIT has surged into the Top 5 in year-to-date flows, surpassing 99.98% of other ETFs.
Comparing against the 3,109 ETFs presently trading in the United States, BlackRock’s ETF stands out, placing in the top 0.16% in terms of flows.
Balchunas offers a slightly different assessment, suggesting a 0.02% position when measured against an estimated 10,000 ETFs globally.
Fidelity’s Bitcoin Fund follows closely behind, securing the eighth spot among U.S.-based ETF products with $2.51 billion in inflows.
Both BlackRock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETFs have steadily climbed the ranks, advancing from eighth and tenth positions at the end of January.
READ MORE: ‘Very Few Speak of the Crypto Winter, Bitcoin is Rising in 2024’ – Serhii Tron on Crypto Investments
Notably, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF products for trading on January 11th puts them at a seven-day trading disadvantage compared to other products whose flows are tallied from January 1st.
BitMEX Research data highlights the widening gap between BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs against seven other spot Bitcoin ETFs (excluding Grayscale) in terms of inflows.
ARK 21Shares and Bitwise secure third and fourth positions respectively, with over $100 million in accumulated flows each.
Meanwhile, Grayscale’s converted spot Bitcoin ETF, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), saw a decline in outflows for the sixth consecutive day, recording $73 million on February 6th.
Notably, inflows from other Bitcoin ETF issuers have consistently outpaced outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC for at least seven consecutive days, marking a significant shift in investor sentiment.
The latest outflow figure represents an 88% decrease from GBTC’s peak outflow day on January 22nd, signaling a changing landscape in the Bitcoin ETF market.
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein has urged regulators to approve exchange-listed options for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in a recent post on February 5.
Sonnenshein highlighted the importance of options in supporting price discovery and assisting investors in navigating market conditions and achieving desired outcomes, such as income generation.
Exchange-traded options represent standardized contracts allowing investors to buy (via call options) or sell (via put options) a specific quantity of a financial asset at a predetermined price (strike price) on or before a specified date.
This enables investors to make predictions about the future movements of stocks, bonds, and the overall stock market.
These options are traded on exchanges like the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) and are subject to regulation by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Clearinghouses like the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) provide guarantees for these exchanges.
Sonnenshein pointed out that when the SEC approved the first Bitcoin futures ETF in October 2021, options for the ETF were available for trading the very next day due to automatic effectiveness, leveraging existing rules.
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However, this rule does not apply to commodity-based ETFs, including recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, which undergo a potentially lengthy review process akin to the 19b-4 process for spot Bitcoin ETFs themselves.
The Grayscale CEO advocated for equal treatment of similar financial products, drawing parallels between spot and futures BTC-based ETFs.
He highlighted that national exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange, have filed Forms 19b-4 to amend listing standards, allowing listed options on commodity-based ETFs, including spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Currently, the SEC is reviewing applications for listed options on spot BTC ETFs and has opened comments on BlackRock’s proposed options with Cboe.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggested that the SEC could make a decision as early as February 15 or no later than September 2024.
Sonnenshein concluded his post by emphasizing the need for fair treatment of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the entire crypto asset class.
His advocacy aims to ensure that investors have access to a broader range of financial products and options, promoting transparency and market efficiency.
Serhii Tron, founder of White Rock Management, one of the largest mining companies in the world, spoke on the current state of the crypto market, and shared his vision of what comes next this year
What are the most valuable lessons we can learn from 2023?
What’s most important – and quite obvious for everybody – is that the crypto winter, the topic that so many people fueled their devastating forecasts with in 2022, is over and done with. A stone-cold fact, which I am not sure why anybody has any reason to question. The market did have to plough through a lot, but last year, the price of bitcoin leapt by 150%, and hit a $44 thousand mark. There were, of course, some corrections and fallbacks, however, the outcome is still very much on the bright side, so there are few people bringing up the $17 thousand indicator from November 2022.
BTC capitalization once again exceeded $816 billion. If you look at the entire market, you can see the capitalization growth of 2023 was a solid 108.1% – from $829 billion to $1.72 trillion, with the annual trade volumes reaching $36 trillion. Doesn’t feel like winter to me.
Were the external factors involved?
Naturally, there were many things at play, for the crypto market does not exist by itself. Back in 2022, world regulators had to handle the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and forced monetary emission (to help businesses stay afloat and keep the wolf of the global crisis at the door) – monetary policies had to tighten in order to keep the global inflation at bay. Very active in this endeavor was the U.S. Federal Reserve, which raised their basic rates. But, by the end of 2023, the Feds softened a bit, with the consumer prices gradually going down.
Two major events took place in the United States: at the year’s start, the state regulator had to interfere and save the banks in distress (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank) by means of its own Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which basically means a lot of money (around $400 billion) had to be pumped into the failing institutions; as the monetary policies eased up a little, the said money incrementally spread across the markets. For the loan and stock markets, and crypto market to boot, the money influx worked like a charm. Dollar instruments’ profitability decreased, but it went up in our segment, hence it feels like a natural order of things, all things considered.
Declining unemployment rates across the world and GDP growth were some other positive factors. Geopolitical tensions are still on the rise, though. I’m speaking about not only military actions in Ukraine and Israel, but the attacks on ships in the Red Sea, and bad blood between North/South Korea, and China/Taiwan.
On the bright side, people happened to notice the financial regulators are pretty interested in crypto. I am, of course, talking about the scandals and law suits against several crypto-dealing enterprises after FTX closure, which made a lot of market players really worried. Some even said it was about to bring the eternal winter upon our market. Which did not happen, by the way, as we soldiered on. I believe that, at least in part, it was possible thanks to the settlement that one of the world’s largest platforms Binance agreed to. Even though the company was fined, this solution is widely considered the optimal choice under the very tricky circumstances. The court hearings on another stock market (Coinbase) are still afoot, but we stay hopeful that both sides can also come to an agreement.
Do you think the state authorities will keep on pushing?
Most certainly, yes. Not in a bad way only, though, by imposing even more pressure and limitations. We can see that many regulators remain unmoved, and are dead-set to not accept crypto for what it is. However, it is pretty much common understanding that digital assets are the future. It doesn’t need to be fought; it needs to be reasonably regulated instead.
Yes, the regulations must be reasonable: measures of control need to be in place so that bitcoin and other coins are not used in arms deals and drug trade; the investors need to be protected from scoundrels and thieves. That being said, excessive regulations need to perish, for they only hold back development of the market and some necessary instruments.
Are you now speaking of the 10-year war with the U.S. regulator for BTC ETFs?
I’m now speaking in general. Surely, BTC ETFs implementation in the United States took way longer than it should have, and it definitely should have happened much sooner. However, hats off to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for what they did in January 2024. The entire market has been anticipating this move since the summer of 2023, when BlackRock applied for this instrument after the watershed court ruling in the Grayscale Investments case: this one company was the sole most persistent proponent of this instrument, and basically served as a trailblazer for the market as a whole.
I would like to point out, though, that many political figures warmed up to the crypto market last year. Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. (nephew of the legendary 35th U.S. President JFK), Democratic Party member and U.S. presidential candidate, openly supported crypto, and was the one to admit that bitcoin can back up the dollar exchange rate; he also compared BTC to gold. A lot was done in terms of lobbying and legislation by the U.S. Senator (Rep) Cynthia Lummis. Another vocal supporter of crypto is Javier Milei, the new President of Argentina, who’s put his team on a mission of crypto popularization in his home country. There are more politicians in favor of cryptocurrency: Lichtenstein’s Prime Minister, Minister of Finance Daniel Risch, leader of the Polish party “Porozumienie” (previously “Polska Razem”) Jarosław Govin, and many more political figures, who from their high chairs and offices substantiate the importance of digital assets. More importantly, they take real measures for coins integration.
In my home country of Ukraine, the work on legislative regulations has intensified. Before the full-scale invasion, one specialized law was adopted and signed (“The Law on Virtual Assets”), with one more piece of legislation in the works, which touches upon taxation, regulations, and other minor details. Several drafts have been introduced so far, with ongoing debates in full swing – which is always helpful; I expect the authorities to pay attention to the field experts and find common ground. Despite the sad reality of a fully-fledged atrocious war, popularity of BTC and other coins is only rising: Ukraine is No. 5 (preceded by the United States) on the Chainanalysis list of countries embracing crypto assets. According to this list, we beat Brazil, China, and Turkiye. Once we win this war, and once the legislation is sorted out, BTC in Ukraine will skyrocket.
Even under such conditions, Ukrainian crypto business keeps moving forward, including foreign countries. What are the objectives of your company?
My personal goals at the moment are to make White Rock Management one of the world’s top-3 miners, and make our company public. We are prepared to enter new markets and attract capitals. From day one, we designed our business in a way to be very clear and understandable to our investors. We imposed our principle from the very start (Environmental, Social, and Corporate), and we never messed with loans, which many of our colleagues do; thus, they’re up to the neck in debts.
We might fall short in terms of mining volumes, however, we’re not reliant on massive loans. We have zero debts and optimal EBITDA, which can be proven by three consecutive years of successful audits by international experts. I am certain that we’ll attract a lot of interest.
We are actively developing several projects in Canada and South America. Investment-wise, we’re talking about $100+ million. Also, alternative energy sources, green energy in particular, are one of our top priorities, and we have no intention of pulling back on this path.
This is, by the way, one of the reasons why miners face heavy criticism – excessive energy consumption (competing for it with other industries), especially in the middle of winter in regions burdened with all sorts of troubles…
State authorities of many countries have previously attacked the mining community as our industry was maturing, with some even launching full-scale propaganda campaigns against crypto: they claimed we’re parasites that stand in the way of developing economies. However, it was the miners who turned out to be the most prolific investors in alternative energy sources. Therefore, this angle of critique is no longer valid. There still might be some local complaints in specific regions, yet they are few and far in between.
No other field but crypto does as much to keep the green energy sector in motion. When I meet my colleagues, I find out about new projects on alternative energy sources that are being developed non-stop: for example, Bitfarms representatives spoke very engagingly on the use of hydro power in Norway, Finland, and Sweden, while Bit Digital is powered by the Niagara River in the USA (electric power generated by the currents of the Niagara River); some of our colleagues put to use geothermal power in Iceland. Our own White Rock Management is an avid proponent of hydro energy, but we are also very interested in American projects (Texas) in gas flaring, which help reduce CO2 emissions at the same time. We joined another 250 companies in signing the Crypto Climate Accord agreement that stipulates environmentally friendly and safe mining of crypto.
Do you think this subject will remain in demand in 2024? What is your general forecast for this year?
Yes, I am confident that environmentally friendly projects will remain popular among the miners – I know we’ll keep working on them for sure. This is right, and this is profitable, too, if you make your business work correctly.
Speaking of the crypto market as a whole, a lot will revolve around those new instruments and opportunities for the investors. I am, of course, talking about BTC ETFs that had a pretty solid start in the United States despite the Grayscale sale-off (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust), which people saw coming to begin with. The major share of stock exchange spots ended up in the liquidator’s pocket, FTX, which never denied it was after maximizing profits to pay off the creditors. Sooner or later, these sale-offs will come to an end, with more money gradually flowing into other funds.
I am sure the investments will grow, including the numbers from the retail market. Back in late-January, Google posted first ads of BTC ETFs, a move that will most certainly attract attention of general public across the board. New funds will emerge, not in the U.S. alone: not so long ago, a spot application was filed in Hong Kong, and I’ve faith it will come through. Let’s wait and see when Europe kicks this door flying open, for the big party is yet to start around here. Capitalization and trading volumes will grow, make no mistake about that.
Surely, other products will pass various stages of development too. 2023 saw significant interest in AI-generated tokens (AI segment of the crypto market exceeded 11%), GameFi and even meme-coins – something a lot of us managed to forget about entirely. But, speaking of the mass market, I am sure the lion share of attention will be dedicated to BTC ETFs.
Readers are always curious about expected rates of the main cryptocurrency of all…
I’m not keen on putting exact numbers on things, however, I am confident the price of bitcoin will keep on rising. With some fallbacks and profit locking, perhaps, but still on the rise overall. There are objective reasons for the upward dynamics.
I have mentioned the further expansion of BTC ETFs, which will perpetuate the increasing value of the coin. Let us not forget about another major event, the halving, which will most definitely affect the exchange rate fluctuations. Also, willingly or otherwise, the stimulation of the interest in BTC will depend on the world’s financial regulators that are on the path of easing their monetary policies. U.S. Federal Reserve in particular: American regulator kept the basic rates as they were (5.25-5.5% per annum), but might lower them in this coming March, as inflation retreats and employment rates improve. The next thing to happen will be a natural reaction: a decrease in the profitability of dollar instruments, and an easy flow of capital from the credit and stock markets to the cryptocurrency market, which promises more interesting earnings. This wheel will spin itself, and we will see the price of crypto rise.
Many analysts insist that by the end of the year’s first quarter or beginning of the second, bitcoin will comfortably sit around $50-60 thousand apiece. Who knows, though: should the stars align perfectly, this price tag might be even better.
South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), the primary financial regulatory authority in the country, has unveiled its plan to seek insights from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The FSS is responsible for overseeing and regulating financial institutions under the broader jurisdiction of the Financial Services Commission.
On February 5, FSS Chief Lee Bok-Hyun presented the organization’s business plan for 2024 in Seoul.
As part of this plan, the FSS intends to visit major advanced financial markets, including New York, during the second quarter of the year.
The primary focus of these visits is to engage in discussions concerning various aspects of South Korean financial markets, with a specific emphasis on spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to reports.
Chief Lee also disclosed his intentions to meet with SEC Chair Gary Gensler later in 2024 to discuss digital assets and, notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs, among other financial matters.
He underscored the significant influence of the SEC’s recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on global financial policies.
This announcement comes shortly after the SEC’s groundbreaking decision to greenlight 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, marking the first-ever approval of such ETFs in the United States.
Previously, the SEC had rejected spot Bitcoin ETF applications, citing concerns about the crypto market’s relatively small size and susceptibility to market manipulation.
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Following the SEC’s approval of spot BTC ETFs, the Korean securities regulator cautioned local firms against facilitating spot Bitcoin ETF transactions from the United States.
However, they also signaled their intention to review and update their regulatory framework pertaining to spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States.
South Korea has established itself as a prominent regulator in the Asia-Pacific region when it comes to cryptocurrency markets.
The country often takes cues from the United States with regard to crypto regulations, including measures like prohibiting the use of credit cards for crypto purchases and banning crypto mixing services.
This ongoing collaboration with the SEC underscores South Korea’s commitment to staying current with evolving global crypto trends and regulations.
ProShares, a prominent issuer of futures-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), remains unfazed by potential threats associated with the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, according to a senior executive.
Simeon Hyman, ProShares’ global investment strategist, expressed that the company perceives advantages in the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs for its futures products, both from operational and commercial perspectives.
In an interview with Cointelegraph on February 2, Hyman noted that their flagship Bitcoin futures ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), has experienced “very efficient” trading volumes since the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Hyman conveyed the company’s satisfaction with BITO’s commercial impact, revealing that it currently trades with a mere two basis points deviation (2/100th of a percent) from its underlying value.
In contrast, spot ETFs have displayed an average premium or discount of 36 basis points.
Beyond the commercial realm, ProShares anticipates operational benefits stemming from the increased adoption driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Hyman explained that the presence of spot ETFs is enhancing the futures market, which was already well-functioning and regulated.
The increased activity around Bitcoin is seen as a positive development.
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These statements align with BITO’s recent trading dynamics, except for an abnormal spike in trading volume on January 11, coinciding with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
On that day, BITO’s trading volumes soared to nearly $2 billion, while its typical volumes ranged between $300 million and $600 million.
However, since the introduction of spot BTC ETFs, BITO has returned to its usual trading figures, reaching as low as $180 million on February 2. Prior to the spot ETFs’ launch, it traded within a similar range, as indicated by Yahoo Finance data.
It is worth noting that the news arrived as major spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) temporarily surpassed BITO in trading volumes, marking a significant shift.
BITO had previously held the title of the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF in terms of trading volumes.
Launched in October 2021, BITO stands as the United States’ first substantial futures Bitcoin ETF.
In contrast to spot Bitcoin ETFs, which track actual Bitcoin holdings, ProShares’ BITO uses futures contracts as its underlying asset.
Despite the changing landscape, ProShares remains optimistic about the future of its futures-based Bitcoin ETF amid the growing interest in the cryptocurrency market.
On February 5th, Bitcoin experienced a surge, surpassing the $43,500 mark, coinciding with the opening of Wall Street, as U.S. markets reacted to tumultuous events in the Chinese stock market.
Bitstamp reported local highs of $43,515 for Bitcoin, marking a new record for the cryptocurrency’s price in February.
This price rally was ignited by the abrupt drop of 8% in China’s CSI 1000 index, prompting Chinese authorities to enforce stricter controls on short selling.
Concerns about a potential recession in China began to circulate, with observations of a “disconnect” between large and small-cap stocks, causing China’s market to lose an astounding $7 trillion in value over the past three years.
Bitcoin’s volatility was further fueled by a significant increase in open interest, reaching $775 million, as reported by J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Despite the volatile market conditions, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) remained relatively low, with approximately 2,600 BTC leaving the trust, continuing a downward trend seen in previous days.
Keith Alan, co-founder of the trading tool Material Indicators, analyzed the order book composition and issued a cautionary note regarding Bitcoin’s price.
He highlighted that there was limited liquidity immediately below the current spot price, making a drop to $42,000 appear quite plausible.
Furthermore, Alan noted that liquidity was more abundant around the $25,000 range, indicating growing sentiment for a potential price dip.
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He emphasized the relationship between liquidity and sentiment, explaining that increased liquidity often reflects prevailing market sentiment.
Alan also pointed out that the ladder of ask liquidity above the current spot price was gradually decreasing, suggesting that a rapid ascent to $45,000 or higher in the short term was unlikely.
In summary, Bitcoin’s price surged to over $43,500 as a response to the turmoil in the Chinese stock market.
This spike was accompanied by increased open interest and relatively low outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
However, caution was advised due to limited liquidity below the current price, with the potential for a dip to $42,000.
Overall, market sentiment remained uncertain, with the possibility of further price fluctuations in the near future.
According to a recent analysis by DecenTrader, Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs in 2024, but not without some challenges along the way.
The analysis, released on February 2nd, suggests that Bitcoin’s price behavior will follow a typical pattern during a “halving year.”
DecenTrader predicts that Bitcoin will experience about a month of sideways price movement before the market reacts to the upcoming block subsidy halving.
CEO and co-founder Filbfilb explains that investors should anticipate a surge in buying activity approximately two months before the halving, which is currently estimated to occur on April 18.
However, following this buying surge, there may be another “sell the news event,” similar to what happened when spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched in January.
Filbfilb points out that there are roughly 75 days remaining until the Bitcoin halving, suggesting that buying interest is likely to start no later than six weeks before the event, or around the second week of March.
This anticipation among speculators could drive Bitcoin’s price to its current two-year high of $49,000 before a sell-off resembling the ETF launch occurs.
Nevertheless, the path ahead appears promising, as price discovery is expected to happen before the end of 2024, similar to the outcome of Bitcoin’s last halving year in 2020.
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Filbfilb advises investors to be aware that Bitcoin tends to front-run the “sell-the-news” phenomenon associated with halving events.
Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential for a new all-time high, the first quarter of 2024 may be challenging for traders.
In addition to Bitcoin-specific factors, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties could contribute to wider risk-asset turbulence.
Concerns include the weakness of the United States banking system, which former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects to come to a head in March.
Some analysts even believe that Bitcoin may not reach a new all-time high until the end of 2025.
Filbfilb remains cautious and warns against excessive optimism, emphasizing that previous market cycles in Bitcoin have followed a consistent pattern driven by investor emotions.
As Bitcoin traded just under $43,000 into the February 4th weekly close, the cryptocurrency market’s trajectory remains uncertain, with various factors influencing its future performance.
The adoption of Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is facing delays due to meticulous due diligence processes conducted by major trading platforms.
LPL Financial Holdings, one of the United States’ largest independent broker-dealers, is currently scrutinizing the recently approved Bitcoin ETFs.
This evaluation aims to determine their suitability for approximately 19,000 independent financial advisers overseeing assets worth $1.4 trillion.
Rob Pettman, Vice President of Wealth Management Solutions at LPL Financial, explained, “We just want to see how they work in the markets.”
Due diligence involves a thorough analysis to understand risks, opportunities, and the authenticity of investments before allocating resources.
LPL Financial intends to complete its due diligence on Bitcoin ETFs within three months.
They are particularly concerned about the possibility of ETFs being shut down if they fail to accumulate significant assets.
Pettman emphasized the negative impact this could have on investors, financial advisers, and the operational costs incurred by firms like LPL.
Bloomberg data reveals that in 2023, 253 ETFs, including cryptocurrency-related ones like VanEck Digital Assets Mining ETF and Volt Crypto Industry Revolution, closed down with average assets of $34 million.
James Seyffart, Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, believes that the widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs might be slower than anticipated.
He predicted during a private webinar with CryptoQuant in January that ETFs could attract $10 billion in inflows within their first year.
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Seyffart explained that large institutions and platforms have approved lists, limiting their investment options.
He added, “I do not think we’re going to get over $100 billion in the first year or two. To put it in perspective, gold ETFs have about $100 billion in the U.S. in total.”
As of January 31, all the Bitcoin ETFs approved the previous month collectively held 656,421 BTC, reflecting a 3% increase from the initial total of 637,610 BTC, valued at nearly $27 billion at current prices.
The ETFs’ performances were affected by outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which sold 132,195 Bitcoin following its transition from an over-the-counter product to a listed ETF.
LPL’s Pettman summed up the situation, stating, “Time is going to tell on the investment thesis, and that’s essentially what we’re monitoring at the moment.”
The cautious approach by platforms like LPL Financial highlights the need for thorough evaluation before embracing the Bitcoin ETFs in the market.
On February 2nd, Bitcoin experienced a sudden drop as the Wall Street trading day began, with a notable $500 hourly candle dip recorded on Bitstamp.
This unexpected plunge was in direct response to the release of the United States unemployment data, which revealed a surprising surge.
The figures for January nonfarm payrolls came in at a staggering 353,000, almost double the expected 185,000, catching both the market and analysts off guard, according to Reuters.
The immediate market reaction suggested that the previously assumed negative impact of restrictive economic policies on the U.S. economy might be less severe than anticipated.
This led to concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for a longer period, potentially reducing liquidity in various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
On January 31st, the Federal Reserve had unanimously decided to maintain interest rates at their existing levels, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell trying to quell speculation about rate cuts occurring in March.
The release of the jobless data further cemented the belief that a rate cut before May was unlikely, causing the odds of such a move in March to drop from 45% earlier in the week to 17.5%.
Caleb Franzen, the founder of Cubic Analytics, responded to the data by highlighting that revisions had actually increased the December job figures, suggesting that doubters of the economy were consistently proven wrong.
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Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro remained optimistic, asserting that strong employment data was beneficial in the long run, and the market had simply overreacted by pricing in rate cuts prematurely.
In addition to these challenges, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged to new 2024 highs, exerting further pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
However, there was a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin enthusiasts as outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a recently launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), provided some relief.
Coinbase received 4,400 BTC in inflows on that day, a decrease from previous days and a significant drop from the peak of 25,000 BTC observed in January.
Despite this, total net inflows reached $38 million, signifying continued interest in cryptocurrencies.
In a volatile market shaped by economic data and monetary policy speculation, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies faced uncertainty and challenges, with traders and analysts closely monitoring every development.
Bitcoin has been trapped in a relatively narrow price corridor for approximately 150 days, ranging from $40,000 to $44,999 as of February 2, 2024.
This unyielding price range has frustrated both bullish and bearish investors.
However, a recent analysis by James Van Straten, a research and data analyst at CryptoSlate, suggests that this behavior is not unusual for Bitcoin.
Van Straten’s examination of Bitcoin’s historical price movements in $10,000 increments between $10,000 and $49,999 reveals that the cryptocurrency typically spends anywhere from 100 to 250 days within these ranges.
Therefore, the current sideways movement falls in line with Bitcoin’s historical trading patterns and should be viewed as characteristic behavior rather than an anomaly.
Despite Bitcoin reaching two-year highs in 2024, as well as experiencing lows of $38,500, these price extremes have failed to trigger a sustained price trend.
Instead, BTC/USD has remained within the $5,000-wide trading range.
This behavior has persisted even after the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), much to the disappointment of market commentators.
Looking ahead, the upcoming block subsidy halving event, scheduled to occur in just over two months, has shifted market sentiment towards a belief that Bitcoin will only regain bullish momentum several months after the halving event.
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Until then, it is expected that the familiar price levels will continue to define the cryptocurrency landscape.
One of the respected voices in the crypto community, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MN Trading, maintains a consistent outlook on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
He anticipates a range-bound trend with Bitcoin trading between $38,000 and $48,000, a prediction he has held for approximately two months.
Van de Poppe also suggests the possibility of a short-term correction followed by a mild pre-halving rally, pushing Bitcoin’s price to around $48,000.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s extended period of trading within a $5,000 price range may be testing the patience of investors, but it aligns with historical patterns.
With the block subsidy halving event looming on the horizon, market participants are bracing for a continuation of this range-bound behavior until a more substantial bullish trend takes hold in the months to come.