Bitcoin‘s resurgence to a $70,000 valuation post the March 29 daily close has sparked considerable attention as the cryptocurrency market anticipates the conclusion of an exceptionally bullish first quarter.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin is now testing the previous all-time highs around $69,000 as potential support levels, moving into the weekend with a promising upward trajectory.
The latter part of the day saw Bitcoin appreciating by about $1,000, buoyed in part by remarks from Jerome Powell, the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, during an interview at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference held in San Francisco, California.
Powell’s demeanor towards inflation and the broader economic forecast was notably measured, indicating a deliberate approach to policy adjustments, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, which are pivotal for risk assets.
“Growth is strong right now, the labor market is strong right now and inflation has been coming down,” Powell commented, emphasizing a cautious stance on future decisions.
Market speculations currently favor a June timeline for an anticipated interest rate reduction, with predictions leaning towards a 0.25% cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, based on probabilities from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
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Despite March 29 being a non-trading day on Wall Street, the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a preferred inflation measure by the Fed, aligned with expectations at 2.5%, maintaining a stable outlook on inflation.
As Bitcoin navigates through potential price action barriers, the spotlight remains on the upcoming weekly, monthly, and quarterly candle closes.
Notable cryptocurrency trader and analyst Rekt Capital underscored the importance of the $69,000 level, suggesting that a weekly close above this threshold could set a new record for Bitcoin’s closing price.
“BTC is going to continue whip-sawing and zig-zagging within this Weekly Range until the Weekly Candle Close,” Rekt Capital shared on X (formerly Twitter), highlighting the significance of consolidation outside of these movements.
In addition, Kevin Svenson, another prominent trader, pointed to optimistic on-chain indicators, notably the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) oscillator on daily charts, which is reportedly primed for an upward cross.
Svenson’s analysis on X suggests that such a development could herald a significant breakout for Bitcoin, potentially surpassing the all-time highs near $74,000, indicating a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory.
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Since the launch of the United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market has seen a significant shift in Bitcoin holdings on exchanges.
Over $9.5 billion in Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, as reported by Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm.
This withdrawal trend started on January 11 and has led to a reduction of over 136,000 BTC from exchange balances.
The dynamics of Bitcoin supply are increasingly favoring bulls with continued mass withdrawals observed this quarter.
The volume of Bitcoin on exchanges has dipped to its lowest since April 2018, with only 2,320,458 BTC remaining, indicating a substantial decline in available BTC for trading.
This trend continued with one of the largest single-day withdrawals occurring on March 27, where over 22,000 BTC, equivalent to $1.54 billion, were withdrawn.
The impact of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, though they have been operational for just under three months, is becoming a pivotal factor in the market.
Additionally, notable market activities include a significant transfer of the stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) to Coinbase, highlighted by J.A. Maartunn from CryptoQuant.
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This record transfer raised speculations about potential buying pressure in the market. Such movements underscore the evolving dynamics in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in the context of Bitcoin supply and demand.
Experts are closely watching the ETFs’ impact on Bitcoin’s supply, anticipating a possible “squeeze” where demand surpasses the available supply, potentially affecting prices.
This scenario is expected to intensify, especially with the upcoming block subsidy halving event in mid-April, which will further reduce the rate of new BTC entering the market to just 3.125 BTC per block.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, commented on the significance of the upcoming halving event, noting it as “the biggest Halving in Bitcoin’s history.”
He pointed out that Bitcoin would become even more scarce than gold, with the supply growth rate halving.
Edwards anticipates increased institutional demand through ETFs, a supply squeeze from the Halving, and Bitcoin’s new status as the world’s hardest asset, making April a month to watch for the cryptocurrency sector.
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Bitcoin has experienced unprecedented success in 2024, setting a new record high of $73,679 on March 13, maintaining its value around $70,000 since then.
This surge represents an impressive growth of over 140% compared to the previous year.
During its peak this year, Bitcoin momentarily eclipsed silver, becoming the eighth most valuable commodity worldwide by market capitalization.
Looking ahead, projecting similar growth rates into the future suggests that by April 2025, Bitcoin could potentially hit $170,574.
This forecast not only positions it above silver but also surpasses major corporations like Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Saudi Aramco, Nvidia, and Microsoft in CompaniesMarketcap’s rankings of top commodities by capitalization.
This speculative growth assumes a static market environment, using current market caps as a baseline for comparison.
Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap closely trails that of silver, which stands at $1.412 trillion.
To edge past silver again, Bitcoin would need to increase its value to $71,732, reaching a market cap of around $1.413 trillion.
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Moreover, Bitcoin is poised to leapfrog other major entities.
For instance, surpassing Google’s $1.885 trillion market cap requires Bitcoin to reach approximately $95,642.
To dethrone Microsoft from the second spot, Bitcoin would need to surpass a market cap of $3.126 trillion, achievable at a price of roughly $165,608 per BTC.
These projections are grounded in Bitcoin’s recent yearly growth of about 144.82%.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin could see its price soar to $170,574 by next year, boosting its market cap to approximately $3.224 trillion, thereby overtaking Microsoft.
Ultimately, for Bitcoin to claim the top position and surpass gold’s market cap of $15.141 trillion, its value would need to skyrocket to $800,476 per BTC, achieving a market cap of $15.15 trillion.
This scenario underscores Bitcoin’s potential trajectory as the leading commodity by capitalization, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s remarkable growth and its increasingly significant role in the global financial landscape.
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Goldman Sachs has seen a significant resurgence in client interest in cryptocurrencies this year, largely fueled by the U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to Max Minton, the head of digital assets for Goldman Asia Pacific, a notable shift has occurred among the firm’s clientele, ranging from renewed activity to explorations into the crypto space.
This shift was detailed in a Bloomberg report dated March 24, highlighting the influence of the recent approval of ten Bitcoin ETFs in January on the traditional market’s embrace of cryptocurrencies.
Minton attributes this revived enthusiasm directly to the ETF approvals, stating, “The recent ETF approval has triggered a resurgence of interest and activities from our clients.”
He observed that the primary interest comes from existing Goldman clients, particularly through options and futures in the crypto domain, with hedge funds being the most engaged segment.
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Despite not offering spot crypto products and focusing on crypto derivatives like Bitcoin and Ether options and futures since launching its first crypto trading desk in 2021, Goldman Sachs reported a record $2.8 trillion in assets under management by the end of 2023.
Minton noted a quiet previous year but mentioned an uptick in client interest and activities, including onboarding and transactions, from the beginning of the year.
Clients of Goldman Sachs are leveraging derivatives to tap into the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and to speculate on future price movements.
Bitcoin-related derivatives have emerged as particularly popular among the firm’s active investors.
Furthermore, Minton speculated on the potential impact that the approval of a spot Ether ETF in the U.S. could have, potentially drawing institutional clients towards Ether, although Bloomberg ETF analysts currently estimate only a 35% chance of such an approval by May.
Despite regulatory challenges, Minton emphasized Goldman’s intention to broaden its client base to include asset management funds, banks, and specialized crypto asset firms, signaling a strategic expansion into the crypto market irrespective of immediate ETF developments.
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Bitcoin is on the verge of a supply crunch, according to recent insights from CryptoQuant’s “Weekly Crypto Report” dated March 26.
The analysis highlights a looming “sell-side liquidity crisis” as demand for Bitcoin surges, particularly influenced by the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.
This increased demand, coupled with a dwindling supply, signals a pivotal shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics, potentially altering its supply landscape irreversibly by the early months of 2025.
CryptoQuant’s report illuminates the stark reality of Bitcoin’s dwindling sell-side liquidity.
“Record Bitcoin demand paired with declining sell-side liquidity has resulted in the liquid inventory of Bitcoin plunging to the lowest ever in terms of months of demand,” the platform notes, estimating the current sell-side liquidity inventory can only satisfy the burgeoning demand for about twelve months.
The analysis focuses solely on “accumulating addresses,” which are wallets that have not made any outbound transactions, suggesting the actual demand could be even greater.
“This is only considering demand from accumulating addresses, which may be considered as the lower-end of Bitcoin demand,” CryptoQuant elaborates.
When examining Bitcoin’s availability strictly on United States exchanges, the timeframe during which supply can meet demand halves.
“The Bitcoin liquid inventory drops to six months of demand if we exclude the Bitcoin on exchanges outside the US.
“We exclude these exchanges considering that US spot Bitcoin ETFs will only source Bitcoin from US entities,” the report details.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, took to X (formerly Twitter) to discuss the emerging sell-side liquidity crisis.
He commented on the surprising activity of Bitcoins mined in 2010 and dormant since then, now moving to new wallet addresses.
Ju has been a vocal proponent of the ETF supply squeeze theory, previously forecasting a six-month window in mid-March as ETF inflows surged to record highs.
Although there was a brief period of net outflows from these products, recent trends suggest a reversal, with the latest figures from Farside, a UK investment firm, indicating significant net inflows of $400 million on March 25—the largest in two weeks.
This data underscores the growing investor interest in Bitcoin, even as the supply tightens, heralding a potentially transformative period for its market dynamics.
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Matthew Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has projected a transformative inflow of funds into Bitcoin from institutional investors through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), forecasting as much as $1 trillion could be funneled into the cryptocurrency.
In a detailed memo to investment professionals, Hougan tackled the issue of Bitcoin’s volatility, which has seen its value fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000.
Despite these short-term swings, he advised a calm and long-term perspective, citing “keep calm and take the long view.”
Hougan pinpointed several pivotal moments on the horizon for Bitcoin, including the anticipated halving event and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on major national platforms such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.
He also mentioned the ongoing due diligence processes by investment committees and consultants as an essential preparatory step before they can commit to investing in Bitcoin.
The Bitwise executive suggested that in the interim, Bitcoin’s price might experience sideways movement due to minor shifts in sentiment.
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However, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, asserting that it is part of a “raging bull market,” supported by a 300% increase over the past 15 months and solid reasons to believe in continued growth.
Highlighting the significance of the recent spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in January, Hougan emphasized their role in opening the cryptocurrency market to investment professionals.
He outlined the gradual but inevitable shift of investment professionals, who manage trillions of dollars, towards cryptocurrencies, stressing that this transition is expected to unfold over years rather than months.
Hougan celebrated the remarkable success of ETFs, which have seen an inflow of $12 billion since their inception, marking them as the “most successful ETF launch of all time.”
Yet, he views this as just the beginning, with the potential for a massive $1 trillion influx once global wealth managers allocate a mere 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
He concluded, “A 1% allocation across the board would mean ~$1 trillion of inflows into the space. Against this, $12 billion is barely a down payment.”
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Bitcoin‘s price underwent a minor correction, dropping to $68,430 on March 27, after it struggled to surpass the $71,000 mark.
This movement comes amidst signs of waning bullish sentiment among professional traders, highlighted by derivatives data.
The failure to breach this level raises concerns about the stability of the $69,000 price point.
Despite the price rallying from $63,800 to $70,000 in the five days leading to this dip, the Bitcoin futures markets saw a mere $151 million in leveraged short positions liquidated.
This cautious stance by bears is noteworthy, especially considering the significant $888 million withdrawal from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs the previous week.
Bitcoin, however, showcased its resilience by bouncing back from a substantial 17.6% fall mid-March, without instigating panic among spot ETF investors.
This resilience was thought to be driven by unexpected inflows into spot ETFs, marking an important trend for bulls ahead of the anticipated April Bitcoin halving.
March 26 reversed the outflow trend, with spot ETFs experiencing $418 million in net inflows, signifying genuine institutional interest despite Bitcoin’s price lingering close to its peak.
Yet, the community remains uncertain if the $69,000 mark will hold as a strong support level.
The sentiment among professional traders has shown a decrease in optimism.
For instance, Binance’s long-to-short ratio among professional traders slightly fell from 1.50 to 1.42, indicating a decrease in bullish sentiment.
Similarly, on OKX, a significant drop in the long-to-short ratio was observed, pointing to a broader sentiment shift among top traders.
This declining optimism could be attributed to broader economic concerns, including the performance of the S&P 500 index and uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2024.
The prospect of rate cuts, typically beneficial for risk-on assets like Bitcoin, seems unlikely in the near term, with the fixed-income markets betting against a rate reduction at the Fed’s upcoming May 1 meeting.
Analysts, including Paul Hickey from Bespoke Investment Group, express concerns over various factors impacting the market, such as the potential risks associated with a lack of earnings growth and the overemphasis on artificial intelligence within the stock market.
Furthermore, the shift in trading preferences among Bitcoin’s top traders, moving away from leveraged long positions, reflects a broader caution influenced by global economic downturns, regulatory actions, and discussions on limiting cryptocurrency transactions.
This cautious sentiment, however, does not necessarily predict a drop below the $69,000 threshold, instead reflecting wider economic and regulatory concerns.
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In a significant legal victory, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has advanced in his legal challenge against YouTube following an appeals court decision that overturned a previous ruling.
This dispute stems from incidents in 2020, where doctored videos of Wozniak were used in a Bitcoin scam on YouTube.
The appellate court in San Jose has determined that YouTube’s defense, rooted in a controversial communications law, is insufficient for absolving the platform of liability related to the fraudulent use of Wozniak’s image.
This pivotal judgment stems from a larger lawsuit initiated by Wozniak and 17 other high-profile figures, including tech magnates Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Michael Dell, against YouTube and its parent entity, Google.
They argued that YouTube failed to adequately police its platform against misleading videos that promised Bitcoin rewards in exchange for payments, misleading viewers with manipulated content featuring trusted industry leaders.
The scam videos were sophisticated in their deception, incorporating additional text and imagery to entice viewers into sending Bitcoin with the false promise of receiving double the amount in return.
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This case’s progression is particularly noteworthy because it challenges the protective boundaries of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which has historically shielded platforms like YouTube from liabilities associated with user-posted content.
A crucial element of the appellate court’s decision was its focus on YouTube’s practice of issuing verification badges.
The court found that YouTube and Google had “materially contributed” to the scam’s proliferation by verifying and failing to de-verify channels that were hijacked to promote the scam.
This action, or lack thereof, played a significant role in the court’s finding that Section 230 protections might not apply when a platform contributes to the perpetration of a scam.
Wozniak’s attorney, Joe Cotchett, hailed the decision as a critical moment for holding social media giants accountable.
He emphasized that the verdict sends a clear message that platforms like “Google and YouTube take responsibility for their actions and cannot use Section 230 as a total shield for their conduct.”
This case not only marks a victory for Wozniak but also signals potential shifts in how legal protections for online platforms are interpreted and applied in the context of digital fraud and content management.
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Several crypto traders have observed a promising pattern on the Bitcoin dominance chart, hinting at a possible increase in Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market.
This pattern, known as an ascending triangle, suggests that Bitcoin’s market dominance might be on the rise.
This technical analysis tool is identified by a chart pattern where the price moves within a confined area, marked by a rising trendline support and a flat resistance line, indicating potential upward momentum in Bitcoin’s market share.
Benjamin Cowen, a notable figure in the crypto community and the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, expressed his optimism regarding Bitcoin’s dominance, telling his substantial audience of over 810,000 on X on March 27, “The BTC dominance train is about to leave the station.”
This sentiment is echoed by other traders who see the pattern as a bullish sign for Bitcoin.
Another prominent voice in the crypto space, a trader known as Beanie, shared with his nearly 195,000 followers on X that Bitcoin’s dominance is “coming back in a big way.”
Beanie pointed out that in bear markets, Bitcoin often becomes a refuge for investors, attributing to its perceived stability compared to other, more speculative assets.
This shift towards Bitcoin in uncertain times is not unprecedented, as Beanie compared the current market conditions to the bear market of 2018, contrasting it with the bull market of 2021 where Bitcoin’s dominance saw a significant decline from 70% to 40%.
The landscape of Bitcoin’s market dominance has seen dramatic shifts over the years, from a commanding 85% in March 2017 to a record low of 32.45% by January 2018. As of the latest data from CoinStats, Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 50.1%.
However, not all traders are convinced of this bullish outlook.
Some, like Zero Ika, who has a following of 43,500 on X, argue that Bitcoin’s dominance is on a “long-term downtrend” from a macro perspective, suggesting a more cautious view of Bitcoin’s market share moving forward.
This divergence of opinions highlights the speculative nature of the crypto market and the varying interpretations of market data among investors.
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In a significant move within the cryptocurrency community, a notable Bitcoin whale, identified only as “37X,” has shifted an enormous sum of over $6 billion in Bitcoin to three separate addresses, marking the first such transaction since 2019.
This transfer saw the whale relocating nearly its entire stash of 94,500 Bitcoin, valued at $6.05 billion as of March 23, leaving a mere 1.4 BTC in the original wallet.
The details of this massive transaction were shared by Arkham Intelligence on March 25, stating, “$5.03B BTC was sent to bc1q8yj, with addresses bc1q6m5 and bc1q592 receiving $561.46M and $488.40M in BTC respectively. bc1q592 has since sent those funds onwards.”
This whale activity coincided with a surge in Bitcoin interest from institutional investors, partly fueled by the anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event set for late April.
This event is expected to cut the reward for mining new blocks in half, a significant change that has historically impacted Bitcoin’s price.
Despite Bitcoin achieving a record price level prior to this halving, experts believe the market has yet to fully account for the impending reduction in supply.
A D8X co-founder and former UBS executive director highlighted to Cointelegraph that the price increase does not fully reflect the anticipated supply squeeze.
The timing of the whale’s transfer was also noteworthy, occurring just as Bitcoin surpassed the $70,000 mark on March 25 after a 10-day absence from this price point.
This resurgence is part of a broader trend of Bitcoin accumulation off exchanges, with Coinbase’s Bitcoin supply dropping to a nine-year low.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s price saw a 6.4% increase in the 24 hours leading up to March 25, reaching $71,222.
The current Bitcoin rally is largely attributed to halving anticipation and increased institutional investment, including from traditional financial institutions launching Bitcoin-related products.
Ten Squared’s partner, Christopher Cheung, mentioned to Cointelegraph, “The involvement of traditional financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity in launching BTC products is further legitimizing cryptocurrency as an alternative asset class.
“This reduces the ‘career risk’ for investors who were previously hesitant to enter the crypto market.”
The growth in Bitcoin ETFs, with a combined total of $58.3 billion in on-chain holdings, underscores the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class among investors.
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