Bitcoin surged past $64,000 before the weekly close on April 28, while altcoins aimed for a rebound. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed increased momentum in Bitcoin’s price over the weekend.
After hitting a weekly low of $62,400, BTC/USD reversed its course and maintained levels around $63,500 at the time of reporting.
Altcoins also saw positive performance during off-hours trading, with the total altcoin market cap rising by approximately 1% for the day.
Popular trader Skew, commenting on recent market trends, noted the bounce in altcoins but expressed caution regarding their tendency to peak early in the week.
Skew anticipated sell-side pressure on Bitcoin around its range highs, which could hinder further bullish advances.
Trader and commentator Moustache expressed optimism about an upcoming “altseason,” suggesting it could rival the market’s performance during the 2017 all-time highs.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Holds Firm Above $63,000 Despite Regulatory Scrutiny and Economic Turbulence
He pointed to the monthly dominance chart of the stablecoin Tether, indicating a potential “backtest” after breaking below a rising trendline earlier in the year.
Market participants awaited the introduction of “TradFi” trading, such as Bitcoin futures, for additional insights into the crypto market’s trajectory.
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades shared positive sentiments about weekend price action, anticipating limited movement in Bitcoin until after the reopening of CME.
Despite consolidating below previous all-time highs, Bitcoin’s monthly chart drew optimism from trader Alan Tardigrade.
Tardigrade highlighted Bitcoin’s position above the Triangle Top on the monthly chart as a bullish indicator, emphasizing the necessity of consolidation for a sustained bull run in the future.
He compared Bitcoin’s current situation to the pre-breakout period of the Nasdaq Composite Index in 2013, suggesting potential for significant growth ahead.
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The launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Hong Kong on April 30 triggered a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price.
Despite expectations of substantial demand, including projections of $140 million, the opening day’s total trading volume, incorporating Ether ETFs, amounted to only $12.4 million.
Consequently, the premium on Bitcoin futures plummeted to its lowest point in five months, indicating a potential bearish trend.
Various factors have contributed to this negative pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Weak macroeconomic conditions and uncertainties surrounding U.S. spot BTC ETF flows have been prominent among them.
Investors’ confidence in the United States Federal Reserve’s ability to implement two interest rate reductions in 2024 has waned, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to deliver post-meeting remarks on May 1, prompting cautious market behavior.
Continued net outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs over four consecutive sessions have raised further concerns.
Investors have been withdrawing funds from the Grayscale GBTC ETF due to its high fees, while the Blackrock IBIT ETF has experienced minimal activity.
This trend suggests diminishing interest in such investments within the U.S. market despite the lackluster performance of the Hong Kong spot ETF.
Previously, cryptocurrency ETFs based on futures contracts listed on the Hong Kong exchange (HKEX) had attracted substantial net inflows totaling $529 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Hence, the disappointing debut of the spot instrument on April 30 came as an unexpected setback. Analysts, including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, speculate that poor timing may have contributed to the low trading volumes.
The broader financial landscape also played a role, with the S&P 500 poised to register its first negative monthly performance in six months in April, and yields on U.S. 5-year Treasury notes rising from 4.2% to 4.7%.
Market participants often exit fixed-income positions amid fears of rising inflation or expectations of continued
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The Bitcoin market has experienced a significant downturn following its fourth halving, confounding expectations of a surge similar to previous cycles.
Since the halving event on April 20, Bitcoin’s value has plummeted by 11%.
It was trading around $64,000 at the time of the halving, briefly climbed above $67,000 two days later, but then dropped to below $57,000 by May 1, as per CoinGecko.
Currently, the price stands at $57,362, marking a 7% decrease over the last 24 hours and a 17% decline over the month.
This downturn has surprised market observers who anticipated a rise post-halving, in line with historical trends where significant rallies often followed such events.
For instance, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin surged approximately 3,000% within 17 months, achieving a then-record high of $20,000 in December 2017.
This year’s halving diverges from previous patterns due primarily to an unprecedented bull run leading up to the event, which saw Bitcoin reach new highs.
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“What’s unique about this latest Bitcoin halving is the incredible bull run and price action leading up to it.
“Even considering this recent pullback, Bitcoin has still been up 35% since the start of the year,” Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics explained to Cointelegraph.
Greenspan also reasoned that the recent drop was predictable, given broader economic pressures and market trends, remarking, “Considering the expectation of yet another Fed pivot and what’s happening in the stock market, Bitcoin’s current price action is hardly a surprise.
“We’ll be a lot smarter about that later today, though.”
Predictions had been made as early as March 2024 by analysts at JPMorgan, suggesting a potential decline in Bitcoin’s price to around $42,000 post-halving.
Markus Thielen, CEO and head analyst at 10x Research, forecasts a further dip to $52,000. Thielen attributes the previous rally mainly to substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have significantly reduced recently.
Despite the current decline, some experts, including investment researcher Lyn Alden, believe there are compelling reasons, beyond just the halving and U.S. ETFs, for Bitcoin to achieve new heights in 2024.
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Bitcoin‘s trajectory remains a subject of fervent speculation, with diverging views on whether its recent surge to $70,000 constitutes the peak of its current cycle.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt proposes an “exponential decay” pattern, indicating that Bitcoin’s successive cycles have seen diminishing peaks, with each reaching approximately 20% of the previous cycle’s peak gain.
Brandt estimates the current cycle’s top at $70,000, a mark already surpassed in March when prices briefly exceeded $73,000.
However, he acknowledges a 25% likelihood that Bitcoin has already crested this cycle.
READ MORE: Epic Satoshi from Fourth Bitcoin Halving Block Sells for $2.13 Million
Giovanni Santostasi, CEO of Quantonomy, rebuts Brandt’s theory, citing insufficient data for robust statistical analysis.
Instead, Santostasi proposes a model based on long-term power law behavior, projecting a fourth cycle peak around December 2025 at approximately $210,000, with a projected bottom for the subsequent cycle around $83,000.
Numerous experts offer their own predictions, with Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal foreseeing Bitcoin doubling by the 2028 halving, reaching an estimated $120,000.
Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading, anticipates a potential cycle peak of $180,000. Fidelity Digital Assets, meanwhile, revises its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin, asserting that it is “no longer cheap.”
The current price of Bitcoin stands at $62,528, a 15% decline from its mid-March all-time high.
Despite the variance in forecasts, the cryptocurrency market continues to captivate investors and analysts alike, with each theory offering its own perspective on Bitcoin’s trajectory and potential future peaks.
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The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a key player in financial services offering clearing and settlement services, has declared its decision not to allocate any collateral to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, and will not extend loans against them.
Effective April 30, 2024, DTCC will enact alterations to collateral values for specific securities during its annual line-of-credit facility renewal, potentially impacting position values in the collateral monitor.
This announcement made on April 26 signifies that ETFs and analogous investment instruments backed by Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies will be deprived of any collateral value, resulting in a complete reduction of 100% in their collateral value.
However, as cryptocurrency enthusiast K.O. Kryptowaluty elucidated in a post, this decision will solely affect inter-entity settlement within the line of credit system.
A line of credit represents a borrowing agreement between a financial institution and an individual or entity, permitting the borrower to access funds up to a predetermined credit limit, with interest typically applied solely to the borrowed amount.
According to Kryptowaluty, leveraging cryptocurrency ETFs for lending and as collateral in brokerage activities will proceed unaffected, contingent on the risk tolerance of individual brokers.
While DTCC has taken a stance against crypto ETFs, the sentiment is not mirrored across all traditional players.
Goldman Sachs’ clients have reentered the crypto market in 2024, propelled by revived interest post the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
READ MORE: Hong Kong Approves First Wave of Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs for Trading
The debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has ignited escalating institutional interest in this investment vehicle.
Within a mere three months of their introduction, all U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $12.5 billion in assets under management.
In February, an estimated 75% of fresh Bitcoin investments stemmed from the 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs greenlit in the U.S. on Jan. 11.
Nevertheless, net inflows into the ETFs have recently decelerated. Various ETF issuers have reported substantial outflows of late.
As per Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. witnessed a net outflow of $218 million on April 25, following a $120 million outflow the prior day.
Grayscale’s GBTC ETF observed a notable single-day outflow of $82.4197 million. Data from Farside indicates a significant total net outflow from GBTC, tallying up to $17.185 billion.
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An exceedingly rare event in the world of Bitcoin unfolded recently as an “epic sat,” the smallest unit of the cryptocurrency, was mined from the fourth Bitcoin halving block and subsequently sold for a staggering 33.3 Bitcoin (BTC), equivalent to approximately $2.13 million.
The transaction took place on cryptocurrency exchange CoinEx Global on April 25, merely five days after the block, numbered 840,000, was mined on April 20 by Bitcoin mining pool viaBTC, a partner of CoinEx.
The auction for this rare satoshi, denoted as “sat number 1,968,750,000,000,000,” commenced on April 22 and attracted a total of 34 bids before an undisclosed bidder secured ownership rights to the coveted sat.
The runner-up bid amounted to 20 Bitcoin.
CoinEx celebrated the successful conclusion of the auction, highlighting the significance of the event beyond mere financial transactions.
They emphasized, “This auction isn’t just a bidding event; it marked the community recognition, media attention, & widespread embrace of #Bitcoin.”
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An epic satoshi is the first satoshi mined in the initial new Bitcoin halving block, and with four halvings to date, only four of these rare sats exist.
Each epic sat is assigned a unique sequence number under the Ordinals number system, which relies on mining timestamps.
While an ordinary satoshi is currently valued at $0.00065, certain sats hold special significance within the Bitcoin ecosystem due to their rarity and unique identifiers.
Bitcoin Ordinals explorers like Ordiscan and OrdinalHub enable users to verify whether a Bitcoin wallet possesses a rare sat by examining the exact UTXO and output number.
Owners of such rare sats can then transfer them to an Ordinals-supported wallet.
ViaBTC, the entity responsible for mining the fourth halving block, received a substantial reward of 3.125 Bitcoin as the new block subsidy, along with an impressive 37.6 Bitcoin in reward fees, valued at $2.4 million at the time.
The next Bitcoin halving event is anticipated to occur around 2028 at block 1,050,000, halving mining rewards to 1.5625 Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin miners are experiencing a significant revenue surge due to the rise in transaction fees from Bitcoin Runes, a novel protocol for issuing fungible tokens on the Bitcoin network, as stated by Nazar Khan, the co-founder and CEO of TeraWulf.
Khan emphasized the impact of Runes on transaction fees, noting, “Runes significantly increased the transaction fees, so if anything, there was an increase in the hash price in the first 24-30 hours [after halving].
Since then, we’ve seen transaction fees come down, but compared to the average fees in 2023, they’re still pretty high.”
Given that the remainder of the Bitcoin block reward is a fixed issuance, transaction fees serve as the variable element for Bitcoin miners, Khan explained.
This surge in transaction fees provides a crucial financial boost for miners following the Bitcoin halving, which reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
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Although total Bitcoin transaction fees decreased from their peak of 1,257 on April 20 to 105 BTC on April 25, they remained notably higher compared to most of 2023, according to CryptoQuant data.
On average, transaction fees constituted 30% of Bitcoin block rewards post-halving, translating to almost an additional Bitcoin for miners on top of the existing block rewards, Khan revealed.
In contrast, transaction fees comprised only 10% of Bitcoin block rewards in 2023.
TeraWulf estimated a post-halving Bitcoin production cost of $37,000 per BTC, assuming a 10% average transaction fee.
However, with the current higher average transaction fees, TeraWulf anticipates a further reduction in Bitcoin production cost, thereby enhancing its profitability, Khan suggested.
Despite the halving of block rewards, TeraWulf remains positioned for expansion as the eighth-largest Bitcoin mining firm, boasting a market capitalization exceeding $750 million, according to Companies Market Cap.
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The Bitcoin Therapist, a well-known pseudonymous writer of a Bitcoin newsletter, recently recounted the serendipitous beginning of his cryptocurrency journey on X (formerly Twitter).
He described how a chance encounter with Bitcoin led him into the crypto world.
He began his crypto investments with Dogecoin, putting in a few thousand dollars.
To his surprise, the value of his investment tripled overnight.
After cashing out, he delved into researching Bitcoin and quickly became a firm believer in its potential.
“It took me a few days before it clicked,” he noted. Within a short span, he transitioned all his investments to Bitcoin, eventually going “100% all in on Bitcoin.”
Despite his early exit from Dogecoin, which later surged by 40 times, The Bitcoin Therapist expressed gratitude for his initial foray into cryptocurrencies, acknowledging the significant gains he made.
This experience starkly contrasted with the fate of many newcomers who lose their entire investment, commonly referred to in crypto slang as getting “REKT.”
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Reflecting on his journey, he stated, “Ironic, but true. I haven’t touched anything but Bitcoin since and I don’t intend to.”
Over the past three and a half years, Bitcoin has seen a price increase of 270%, while Dogecoin has astonishingly risen by 4,670%. This dramatic growth underscores the volatile and unpredictable nature of cryptocurrencies.
The narrative shared by The Bitcoin Therapist highlights the capricious paths to success within the cryptocurrency landscape, serving as a powerful reminder of the potential for financial transformation through fortuitous events.
He learned that chasing quick profits through lesser-known “meme coins” was less important than pursuing lasting financial independence through Bitcoin, which he valued for its rarity and potential as a liberating financial tool.
The Bitcoin Therapist has spent a year immersed in learning about various aspects of the crypto industry, gaining a deep understanding of the space.
His story emphasizes the importance of education and strategic investment in achieving financial freedom.
The broader implications of meme coins and Bitcoin’s role as a mainstream asset class are poised to be key discussion points at the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on November 19, where such expert insights will further illuminate the evolving dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
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The impending debut of spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong won’t extend market access to investors in mainland China, as per insights from Bloomberg data analyst Jack Wang.
After Hong Kong gave the nod to spot BTC and ETH ETFs, three Chinese asset management firms—China Asset Management, Harvest Global Investments, and Bosera—set the stage for the spot crypto ETFs via their Hong Kong subsidiaries by April 30.
Despite the close affiliations of ETF issuers with mainland China, they won’t be facilitating Bitcoin or Ether exposure for investors in that jurisdiction.
“Mainland Chinese citizens will not be able to participate in this,” Wang affirmed during a Bloomberg webinar on April 24, referencing a directive from the Chinese State Council in September 2021 that prohibits financial institutions from engaging in crypto-related transactions.
“Even for the futures-based crypto ETF listed in Hong Kong—I actually tried to set a trade—the brokers will just directly reject the trade,” Wang noted, emphasizing the immediate disconnect of Chinese investors from this product.
READ MORE: Hong Kong Approves First Wave of Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs for Trading
Wang further asserted that the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong won’t catalyze any positive changes in mainland China’s regulatory landscape nor open up the crypto market to Chinese investors.
“I would say it’s 100% not going to happen at least,” the analyst remarked.
Thomas Zhu, head of digital assets at China Asset Management, highlighted the potential eligibility of mainland Chinese investors to acquire crypto ETFs in Hong Kong contingent upon forthcoming regulatory adjustments.
Amidst buoyant anticipation surrounding the impending spot crypto ETF launch in Hong Kong, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart underscored the dominance of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, surpassing the total assets of all ETFs in Hong Kong.
“The U.S. ETF market is almost $9 trillion in assets—that’s trillion with a ‘T’. The entire Hong Kong ETF market is around $50 billion.
Mainland China ETFs are around $325 billion. We’re talking literal orders of magnitude differences in size and impact,” Seyffart elaborated in an X post on April 12.
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Despite facing various challenges, Bitcoin maintained its position above $63,000 on April 26. Outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), regulatory concerns, and scrutiny from U.S. senators did not deter its stability.
Farside Investors reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. experienced a net outflow of $218 million on April 25, following a $120 million outflow the previous day.
Franklin Templeton was the sole provider to register inflows on April 25, suggesting that the trend of withdrawals was not solely due to high fees at Grayscale GBTC.
On April 25, U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bill Cassidy wrote to the U.S. Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security, seeking details on measures to address pseudonymous cryptocurrency payments related to child abuse material.
They referenced a Chainalysis report and emphasized the importance of punishing those involved in such illicit activities.
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin bulls find optimism in deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions.
The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 2.8% year-over-year in March, exceeding the target set by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
This inflation rise is concerning, especially as first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth was lower than expected at 1.6%.
Market expectations suggest that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.
George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Wealth, noted that while the prospects of rate cuts remain, they are not assured, and the Fed may require weakness in the labor market before considering cuts.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Transactions Surge to All-Time High Following Halving: Runes Protocol Leads the Way
Lawrence MacDonald, founder of “The Bear Traps Report,” projected that interest payments as a percentage of federal spending in the U.S. would increase to 12.3% in 2024.
Recent government bond auctions showed a tepid response from investors, with the five-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching its highest levels in nearly six months on April 25.
Bitcoin investors are cautious about the unsustainable trajectory of U.S. government fiscal policies, as lower interest rates to alleviate debt burden could lead to higher inflation.
The situation is not unique to the U.S.; Japan, the world’s fourth-largest economy, experienced a significant devaluation of its currency, the yen, reaching its lowest level since 1990, and a lower-than-expected inflation rate of 1.8% in April.
Geiger Capital, a user on the X social network, highlighted that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is restricted from raising interest rates due to the country’s staggering 265% debt-to-GDP ratio.
While a weaker yen benefits exports, it hampers domestic consumption.
Moreover, as the largest holders of U.S. Treasurys, Japanese investors’ actions significantly impact the global economy.
In summary, Bitcoin’s price faced challenges from outflows in U.S. spot ETFs, regulatory pressures, and global economic downturns.
Nonetheless, some analysts believe that worsening global economic conditions may prompt additional stimulus measures by central banks, potentially benefiting Bitcoin due to its scarcity and resistance to censorship.
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