Bitcoin‘s recent price surge has significantly improved trader sentiment, reaching levels not seen in 16 months.
According to data tracking social media mentions, there’s been a notable shift towards more positive comments about Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin’s +20% 3-week price rally has left traders feeling a whole lot more bullish than they were at the beginning of the month,” stated Santiment in a July 27 X post.
At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,708, up 6.22% since July 25, according to CoinMarketCap.
Santiment highlighted that its weighted sentiment index, which measures Bitcoin mentions on X and the ratio of positive to negative comments, has reached a “16-month high positive sentiment.”
They noted, “The ratio of positive vs. negative comments toward BTC has launched to its highest level since March 2023 as an all-time high is back on radars.”
This surge in positive sentiment coincides with rising anticipation for former U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.
Trump emphasized his vision of making the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” He also predicted that Bitcoin could one day surpass gold, saying,
“Bitcoin is not just a marvel of technology, as you know, it’s a miracle of cooperation and human achievement.”
Following Trump’s speech, pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill proposing the establishment of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve.”
This proposal suggests that the U.S. government purchase 5% of the world’s Bitcoin supply and hold it for at least 20 years.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflected this optimism, showing a “Greed” score of 71, an increase of 24 points since June 28.
Just a month ago, in June, the sentiment was starkly different.
The weighted sentiment index had indicated a surge in negative comments as Bitcoin’s price hovered around $65,000, down 4% on June 21. Santiment noted, “This extended level of FUD [fear, uncertainty, and doubt] is rare, as traders continue to capitulate,” highlighting the crowd’s fear or disinterest as prices ranged between $65K and $66K.
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Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill proposing the establishment of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” by the U.S. government, which would involve purchasing 5% of the world’s Bitcoin supply to be held for at least 20 years.
“It can be used for one purpose, to reduce our debt,” Lummis stated during her keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 27 in Nashville, Tennessee.
The plan, if enacted, would unfold over five years, with the government acquiring approximately one million Bitcoin, representing 5% of the total supply of 21 million Bitcoin.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was valued at $68,105, meaning the cost of purchasing one million Bitcoin would be around $68.1 billion, based on CoinMarketCap data.
“This Bitcoin Reserve that we are going to create will start with the 210,000 Bitcoin that President Trump just mentioned and pull it into a reserve, stored in geographically diverse vaults, and that’s only the beginning,” Lummis explained.
She emphasized a shift in the nature of assets held by the government, saying, “We have the money now, but we will no longer be holding it in US dollars and assets that are designed to debase at least 2% per year, we’ll be holding it in an asset that will grow in value.”
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Lummis, a prominent advocate in the crypto space, received enthusiastic support from the conference attendees, concluding her speech with, “This is the solution, this is the answer, this is our Louisiana purchase moment. Thank you, Bitcoin!”
Her proposal came on the heels of a keynote address by former President Donald Trump, who declared his intention to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital of the world” if re-elected in November.
Lummis’s speech also followed her recent critique of President Joe Biden’s administration’s proposed 30% excise tax on the energy used by Bitcoin miners.
On July 23, she released a report titled “Powering Down Progress: Why A Bitcoin Mining Tax Hurts America,” which outlined the advantages of Bitcoin mining infrastructure for the U.S. energy grid.
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Bitcoin’s price is showing signs of forming a bullish wedge pattern, remaining close to its 2021 all-time highs. Traders are eyeing a potential price target of $85,000.
“Bitcoin has formed a massive descending broadening wedge, right around the previous cycle highs,” noted pseudonymous crypto trader Jelle in a July 26 post on X.
This pattern, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows that broaden over time, typically signals a potential upward trend reversal.
“Price looks eager for a breakout — and once it does, I expect the move to be sharp. First target, $85,000,” Jelle added.
This target is approximately 15% above Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $73,679, achieved in March.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $67,908, reflecting a 2.61% increase since July 26, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
A move to $85,000 would represent a roughly 25% increase, reminiscent of the price spike on July 21 when Bitcoin rebounded from $55,854 to $68,181.
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The next critical milestone for Bitcoin is $69,000, its all-time high from November 2021. Reaching this level would liquidate approximately $929.65 million in short positions, as per CoinGlass data.
“We are still in a larger range, and it is best to assume we can find resistance the closer we get to the $72,000 level,” stated pseudonymous crypto trader Emperor.
The recent market speculation follows reports that Bitcoin has recovered most of its losses since July 25, with traders closely monitoring former U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee.
“Nobody wants to short Bitcoin into the weekend,” wrote Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, in a July 25 analyst note.
Thielen highlighted that there is speculation Trump might announce plans for a strategic Bitcoin reserve at the conference if elected president in November.
“Because if Trump announced a strategic reserve, Bitcoin would gap higher,” Thielen explained, indicating why many traders are hesitant to take short positions.
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The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved Grayscale’s latest spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), named the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), for listing on the New York Stock Exchange’s (NYSE) Arca electronic trading platform.
This development was confirmed in a filing dated July 26.
This approval represents a significant achievement for Grayscale, which recently announced plans to partially spin off its primary Bitcoin fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), into the new Mini Trust.
A Grayscale spokesperson expressed excitement over the SEC’s approval, stating, “Grayscale is excited to share that the [SEC] has approved NYES Arca’s Form 19b-4 application to list and trade shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (proposed ticker: BTC).”
The company awaits the registration statement’s effectiveness, which will enable the Mini Trust to operate as a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETP, alongside GBTC and other funds.
The Mini Trust offers a notably lower management fee of 0.15%, significantly less than the 1.5% annual fee charged by the GBTC fund.
On July 31, Grayscale will allocate 10% of the spot Bitcoin held by GTBC to the Mini Trust.
Current GBTC shareholders will receive shares in the Mini Trust proportional to their existing GBTC shares.
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This transition ensures that GBTC holders will maintain the same amount of spot BTC, but distributed across two separate funds.
Earlier this month, on July 8, Grayscale announced a similar initiative with its Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), where existing shareholders were granted shares in the newly established Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH).
Both GBTC and ETHE funds are among the oldest spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds in the U.S., having launched in 2013 and 2017, respectively.
The GBTC fund alone manages over $17 billion in assets.
An insider mentioned that this distribution method provides existing shareholders with a tax-advantaged way of transitioning from the legacy fund to the new ETF, potentially offering more flexibility and benefits.
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At the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 26, Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. highlighted Bitcoin’s potential to strengthen the US economy and improve American life.
He outlined his plans to sign several executive orders immediately upon taking office.
One key order would direct the US Justice Department and US Marshals to transfer the government’s 204,000 Bitcoin holdings to the Federal Reserve, designating them as a “strategic asset.”
Additionally, Kennedy proposed that the Treasury Department purchase 500 Bitcoin daily until the reserve accumulates at least four million BTC.
He asserted that this move would establish the United States as a dominant global power, with the value of its Bitcoin reserve potentially reaching “hundreds of trillions of dollars.”
Kennedy also plans to make significant changes to tax regulations concerning Bitcoin. He would instruct the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to classify all Bitcoin-to-dollar transactions as nonreportable and nontaxable.
Moreover, he aims to make Bitcoin eligible for exchange into real property under the 1031 Exchange program, which is designed to promote real estate investments.
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Emphasizing the importance of “transactional freedom,” Kennedy argued that Bitcoin could help restore the US economy to its state before the dollar was detached from the gold standard during President Nixon’s era.
He stated, “Fiat currency was invented to fund war. […] If the world was on a BTC standard, there would be no more war because you can’t print Bitcoin.”
Kennedy also expressed his intention to appoint Space Force Major Jason Lowery, known for his work on Bitcoin as a “cyber-defense system,” as a national security adviser.
Lowery has described Bitcoin as a form of “soft power projection” that can protect online identities in cyberspace.
To strengthen the dollar, Kennedy would back US Treasury bills, notes, and bonds with hard assets, including precious metals and Bitcoin, aiming to curb inflation and establish financial stability.
He predicted that these measures would lead to global support for a decentralized currency backed by the United States.
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Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3 and a prominent Bitcoin advocate, has proposed six transformative ideas for former President Donald Trump to consider before his upcoming speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference on January 27.
Mow’s proposals, shared on the social platform X, aim to integrate Bitcoin (BTC) into the US economy, positioning it as a key component of the nation’s financial strategy.
Mow’s first proposal suggests converting US debt to satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin.
By pegging $1 to 1 satoshi, Mow believes this innovative approach could leverage Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and scarcity to stabilize and potentially reduce the national debt.
His second idea involves establishing a Lunar Bitcoin mining facility, tapping into the moon’s natural resources and low gravity to reduce costs and increase mining efficiency.
This project could place the US at the forefront of space-based cryptocurrency mining, encouraging international competition and innovation in the space industry.
In line with the libertarian ethos often associated with Bitcoin, Mow’s third proposal calls for the abolition of the Federal Reserve.
This radical move would shift the US toward a more decentralized financial system, potentially positioning Bitcoin as a central pillar.
Mow’s fourth proposal involves inflation reparations using Bitcoin.
He suggests compensating citizens for the loss of purchasing power due to inflation with Bitcoin, a currency often seen as a hedge against inflation because of its limited supply.
This approach could provide a more stable and reliable form of compensation.
Additionally, Mow proposes making Bitcoin transactions and holdings untaxable to encourage widespread adoption and integration into the mainstream economy.
This could significantly boost Bitcoin’s role in daily transactions and long-term investments.
Finally, Mow suggests creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, akin to a proposal by Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to transfer the US government’s 204,000 Bitcoin holdings to the Federal Reserve as a “strategic asset.”
Trump’s upcoming speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference is highly anticipated in the cryptocurrency community, as these proposals highlight potential avenues for integrating Bitcoin into the US economy.
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Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss has urged the U.S. government to clarify the leadership of the securities watchdog before the upcoming election.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on July 26, Winklevoss expressed that voters should know who the next chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will be.
He revealed that he and his brother Cameron Winklevoss, also a co-founder of Gemini, were recently disinvited from a White House event after endorsing Donald Trump.
Winklevoss criticized the Biden administration’s approach to the cryptocurrency sector, claiming it missed an opportunity to rebuild the relationship with the industry.
He emphasized the need for clarity and predictability in the regulatory environment, stating, “No more guessing.
“No more hoping. No more surprises. Our industry should not tolerate any possibility of a repeat of the last 4 years.”
He argued that demanding action from the administration before November is a non-partisan stance that the entire crypto industry should support.
Gary Gensler, the current SEC chair since February 2021, has been a contentious figure in the crypto world due to his perceived anti-crypto positions.
His term is set to end in June 2026.
In addition, Winklevoss expressed his wish that politicians would refrain from attending Bitcoin and crypto conferences.
He argued that the mainstream adoption of crypto should reach a point where its legality or acceptance is no longer debated, likening it to discussions about the legality of email or the Internet.
This statement was made during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, which saw political figures like independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Senators Cynthia Lummis and Tim Scott, in attendance.
Kennedy spoke about Bitcoin’s potential to enhance the U.S. economy and pledged to issue executive orders to support cryptocurrency on his first day in office.
Former President Donald Trump was scheduled to headline the event on July 27.
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BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has continued to attract millions from investors since last Monday, despite a notable decrease in positive Bitcoin commentary.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), issued by BlackRock, recorded an additional $107 million in inflows on July 18, marking the ninth consecutive day of inflows, according to Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of crypto data platform Apollo.
Seven of those nine days saw inflows exceeding $100 million, an achievement rarely seen in the ETF industry.
However, crypto traders are displaying less optimism.
Positive Bitcoin commentary on social media has declined compared to four months ago, and traders are increasingly taking short positions on the asset, as reported by blockchain market intelligence firm Santiment.
“Positive commentary toward Bitcoin has plummeted despite the mid-sized crypto market bounce this week.
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“Many traders, particularly on @binance, are opening shorts with the expectation of BTC dropping again.”
Santiment’s chart indicates that positive Bitcoin comments on social media are about a third of what they were four months ago.
Santiment typically measures social sentiment from platforms such as Reddit, X, 4chan, and BitcoinTalk.
Interestingly, Santiment noted a surge in “buy the dip” mentions for Bitcoin on these platforms at the start of the month when Bitcoin began approaching its near-five-month low of $53,600 on July 5.
Despite the decline in positive Bitcoin mentions, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently estimates market sentiment to be in the “Greed” zone, with a score of 60 out of 100.
This score represents a strong recovery from the “Extreme Fear” zone, which was reached on July 12 with a score of 25 out of 100, the lowest since January 2023.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $63,540, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours but up 11.5% over the past two weeks.
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Bitcoin is poised for a “significant” rise amid upcoming intense volatility, according to new analysis.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, predicted a BTC price of up to $190,000 in a post on X on July 19.
Bittel highlighted the “compressed” Bollinger Bands, a key crypto volatility indicator, suggesting a potential surge in Bitcoin prices.
“Bollinger Bands are crazy tight by historical standards,” Bittel noted.
“Only two other months in history have we seen the weekly Bollinger Bands so compressed: April 2016 and July 2023.”
Bollinger Bands are crucial for assessing crypto volatility and price trend strength. Currently, the gap between the upper and lower bands is exceptionally narrow.
Historically, such compression has led to significant price increases.
“During both of the previous episodes, Bitcoin prices rose significantly over the following twelve months,” Bittel explained.
“A similar move this time around would target Bitcoin within a range of $140,000 to $190,000.”
This is not the first time Bollinger Bands have indicated major BTC price increases.
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In late 2023, their constriction preceded a rise to local highs just before the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bittel has made similar forecasts recently, emphasizing the need for “patience” amid the bull market’s deepest price drawdown.
As of July 19, BTC/USD is trading around $64,000, up 11% over the past week, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
While trader confidence is increasing and price metrics suggest the bull market should continue, not everyone is convinced the timing is right.
A lack of mainstream retail investor interest contrasts with the accumulation behavior of institutions and whales.
Popular trader Rekt Capital pointed out that September could be a critical moment for Bitcoin’s recovery.
“If history repeats, a Bitcoin breakout from the Re-Accumulation Range would occur in September 2024,” he told X followers this week.
Overall, while the indicators suggest a potential for significant price gains, the absence of retail investor enthusiasm remains a notable concern.
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At the start of July, Bitcoin‘s hashrate drawdown, which measures changes in the network’s computing power, dropped to levels not seen since the December 2022 bear market, indicating some miners may be capitulating.
In April, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving at block height 840,000, cutting the block reward in half to 3.125 BTC.
This reduction in rewards, along with transaction fees accounting for less than 10% of revenues, has squeezed miners’ earnings.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s price recently fell below $60,000 due to selling pressure from German authorities and the Mt. Gox rehabilitation trustee repaying creditors in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
The price has since recovered to around $65,000.
Oleksandr Lutskevych, founder and CEO of CEX.IO, noted the cooling of trends like Runes and Ordinals and declining onchain activity.
He suggested this could mean greater centralization of hash power among larger mining operations, potentially leading to network instability during uncertain conditions.
He also mentioned that the decline in unique active addresses might indicate retail participants ceding ground to corporate entities, which are entering the space thanks to the Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier in 2024.
Despite these bearish signals, Marathon Digital Holdings, the world’s largest BTC mining firm, did not sell any Bitcoin in June, keeping its 18,536 coins untouched.
Bitcoin’s hashrate drop, while significant, wasn’t as drastic as during the December 2022 bear market, according to a spokesperson from ViaBTC.
The network’s hashrate has remained around 600 exahashes per second (EH/s), far above the 250 EH/s seen previously, indicating a notable improvement over time.
Brian Rudick, senior strategist at GSR, said the drop in hashrate resulted from reduced mining profitability post-halving, with hash price at an all-time low.
He added that public miners, who generally have lower costs, continued to hold onto their BTC despite the declining profitability, unlike less efficient non-public miners.
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Experts dismissed fears of a “miner death spiral,” where declining rewards and high energy costs cause network collapse.
Lutskevych emphasized that Bitcoin’s built-in difficulty adjustment mechanism helps stabilize the network by lowering difficulty as hashrate drops, making mining more attractive.
ViaBTC added that this mechanism could lead to a dynamic balance, attracting new miners and increasing hashrate.
Concerns about miner centralization were highlighted, with the appetites of dominant players potentially causing short-term fluctuations.
However, miners can manage liquidity needs without selling their BTC, using services like crypto-backed loans.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price and hashrate have been correlated. Lutskevych noted a slight lag between the two, but recent price drops have not been as severe as past events.
Rudick added that Bitcoin’s price leads its hashrate, so he doesn’t foresee the hashrate drop affecting the cryptocurrency’s price or security, as the network remains robust with sufficient hashrate.
Despite potential turmoil in the mining industry, Bitcoin’s security is assured. Controlling the network’s hashrate for a 51% attack would be prohibitively expensive.
Solutions to Bitcoin’s long-term security budget, such as increasing block space demand via layer 2s, are being considered.
While the hashrate drop is notable, it may signal a market bottom, supported by metrics indicating low selling pressure from exchanges and miners.
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