Australia is set to launch its first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which directly holds the asset, on Tuesday.
The Monochrome Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) will begin trading on the Cboe Australia exchange on June 4.
While Australia already has several exchange-traded products offering Bitcoin exposure, Monochrome Asset Management is the first to receive approval under a new crypto asset licensing category established in 2021 under Australian Financial Services (AFS) licensing rules.
This new category allows the ETF to directly hold Bitcoin.
Monochrome ensures that IBTC’s holdings are stored offline in a device not connected to the internet, utilizing a crypto custody solution that meets “Australian institutional custody regulatory standards.”
“Before IBTC, Australian investors were only able to invest in ETFs that indirectly hold Bitcoin or through offshore Bitcoin products, both of which don’t benefit from the investor protection rules under the directly held crypto asset AFS licensing regime,” Monochrome stated.
Unlike its U.S. counterparts, which are cash-settled, the ETF allows in-kind redemption from investors.
Monochrome CEO Jeff Yew expressed optimism about the new ETF, citing the consistent growth of indirect Bitcoin ETF products in recent months.
He told Cointelegraph that he anticipates “strong interest” in the firm’s ETF and confirmed that Monochrome is prepared to launch an Ether ETF, which will also hold the asset directly.
“We are also exploring other thematic opportunities within the digital asset sector to meet investor demand,” he added.
The launch of IBTC follows the introduction of four spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong on April 30.
However, three of the four Hong Kong ETFs have experienced cumulative net outflows since their launch, with the exception of Bosera’s spot Bitcoin ETF.
In contrast, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen better performance, with cumulative inflows of $13.9 billion, although this is offset by $17.9 billion in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
Yew noted that Australia is a “very crypto-heavy country” and predicted that local spot Bitcoin ETFs could generate between $3 billion to $4 billion in net inflows within the first three years.
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On May 28, Bitcoin transactions reached an estimated value of over $25 billion, marking the highest figure in United States dollar terms over the past year.
Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction value measures the total estimated value of transactions on the blockchain, providing traders with insights into Bitcoin trends to inform their trading decisions.
Blockchain explorer Blockchain.com reported that holders moved approximately 367,000 BTC on the blockchain on May 28.
This is the largest amount of BTC moved since June 13, 2022, when over 519,000 BTC were transferred.
At the time, Bitcoin’s price was around $26,500, resulting in a transaction value of nearly $14 billion.
Although the number of Bitcoin moved on May 28 was lower, the price of BTC was about $69,374, making the total value of the transactions approximately $25.5 billion.
Despite the high transaction value, the number of transactions remained relatively normal.
On May 28, Bitcoin transaction tracker YCharts recorded a total of 596,790 transactions.
This number appeared average when compared to May 26 and 29, which saw over 850,000 and 700,000 transactions, respectively.
READ MORE: Ethereum’s Ether Token Surges 67% in 2024, Bullish Patterns Suggest Continued Rise
In addition to the number of transactions, Bitcoin’s trading volume also did not show any unusual activity.
On May 28, Blockchain.com reported a trading volume of $200 million for Bitcoin transactions on crypto exchanges.
Meanwhile, trading analyst Peter Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could reach $130,000 by 2025.
On June 2, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s bull run displays patterns similar to previous post-halving cycles.
According to Brandt, the asset could reach about $130,000 to $150,000 by August or September 2025 if it follows the trajectory of previous cycles.
Brandt explained that historically, Bitcoin’s halving date often fell roughly midway between the start and peak of bull markets.
He noted that the last bull market began 16 months before the 2020 halving and ended 18 months after it.
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The cryptocurrency market, with its frequent and often dramatic fluctuations, presents an intriguing scenario of Bitcoin potentially reaching $500,000 and the ensuing effects on altcoins like Shiba Inu (SHIB).
This analysis delves into the implications of such a milestone for Bitcoin and its ripple effects on SHIB’s pricing structure.
Bitcoin is regarded as the benchmark for the digital currency landscape, often influencing trends across the cryptocurrency market.
Historical data suggests that spikes in Bitcoin’s price precede similar movements in altcoins.
With Bitcoin having already surpassed its previous peak by hitting $73,000 in March 2024, speculation about its future trajectory continues to captivate analysts and investors alike.
Several prominent industry experts have voiced their predictions, creating a broad spectrum of possibilities for Bitcoin’s peak.
Mike Novogratz and Robert Kiyosaki suggest a future price of $100,000.
More conservative estimates by figures like Richard Teng and Standard Chartered place it around $150,000.
READ MORE: 21Shares Updates Ethereum ETF Application and Ends Partnership with ARK Invest
Meanwhile, Raoul Pal envisions it reaching $250,000, and Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest proposes a bold forecast of $1 million within the next six years, a sentiment echoed by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.
In a scenario where Bitcoin reaches $500,000, its market capitalization would soar from $1.330 trillion to an impressive $9.85 trillion.
This growth would likely catalyze significant gains for altcoins, including Shiba Inu.
If SHIB’s market cap were to increase by 650.7%, similar to Bitcoin’s, it would climb from its current $14.3 billion to around $93 billion.
Under these conditions, Shiba Inu’s price could theoretically rise to $0.000166 per token, up from its current price of $0.000024, based on its circulating supply of approximately 589 trillion tokens.
This price adjustment would be necessary to achieve the projected market cap of $93 billion, highlighting the potential scale of impact a high Bitcoin valuation could have on smaller cryptocurrencies like SHIB.
However, it’s important to stress the speculative nature of these projections.
Cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile, and numerous external factors such as technological advancements, regulatory changes, and shifts in market sentiment could dramatically alter SHIB’s price trajectory.
The interconnectedness of Bitcoin’s movements with the broader crypto market adds another layer of complexity to these predictions, making any forecast highly conjectural.
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Bitcoin drawing inspiration from another blockchain may seem unlikely since it was the pioneer. Bitcoin inspired Litecoin, Dogecoin, Monero, and Ethereum, among others.
However, over the past 15 years, the industry has evolved significantly.
While Bitcoin’s dominance remains, the focus has shifted from simple “buy and hold” strategies to various methods of deploying digital assets for yield, revenue, and entertainment.
Most of this innovation has come from Ethereum and its multi-token, multi-chain ecosystem. Now, the trend is swinging back to Bitcoin.
With the introduction of layer-2 solutions, native tokens, nonfungible tokens (NFTs), and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, Bitcoin has the potential to see significant growth in active users, total value locked (TVL), and active wallets.
Can Bitcoin replicate the growth Ethereum saw in 2017 and 2020, driven by initial coin offerings and DeFi? By adopting certain features of Ethereum, Bitcoin could experience exponential growth.
A key feature is interoperability. Ethereum’s success with multi-tokenism is partly due to universal standards like ERC-20s, which are easily transferable between EVM chains.
Bitcoin, however, faces issues with competing token standards and inscription methods, making its ecosystem more complex.
Bitcoin has several competing token issuance standards and a complex L2 ecosystem. Stacks is the largest Bitcoin L2, followed by the Lightning Network, among many others.
For Bitcoin to become a hub for DeFi, NFTs, real-world assets (RWAs), and other on-chain uses, it needs to adopt universal standards that facilitate seamless value transfer between chains.
If Bitcoin developers collaborate instead of working in isolation, its ecosystem could grow significantly across metrics like daily active users and TVL.
Bitcoin’s TVL of $1.15 billion is far behind Ethereum’s $65 billion.
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However, Bitcoin’s current TVL is similar to Ethereum’s just before “DeFi summer,” suggesting potential for rapid growth.
In 2016, Ethereum’s ICO craze began, and by 2017, over 75% of crypto assets were based on Ethereum. By 2020, Ethereum shifted focus to DeFi and NFTs.
Although Ethereum’s NFT sector has declined, Bitcoin Ordinals have gained traction, indicating a rebranding rather than a decline in NFTs.
The rise in BRC-20 tokens and network activity suggests Bitcoin could see similar growth patterns to Ethereum in 2018. With over 14,000 tokens built on Bitcoin, user perception of BTC’s value increases.
Bitcoin might be on the verge of a parabolic breakout, with BRC-20 tokens’ market cap exceeding $2 trillion and significant growth in inscriptions.
Bitcoin developers should learn from Ethereum’s innovations to foster exponential growth. Despite potential regulatory challenges, even modest growth could significantly increase Bitcoin’s value.
By adopting successful strategies from Ethereum, Bitcoin could transform into the world’s largest multi-token ecosystem by 2025.
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Bitcoin‘s ability to surpass its all-time highs, reached in March, hinges on the upcoming U.S. inflation results, says a crypto analyst.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results, set to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 12, are pivotal.
“If inflation prints 3.3% or lower, Bitcoin should make a new all-time high,” Markus Thielen, head researcher at 10x Research, stated in a report on May 29. This prediction comes ahead of the crucial CPI release.
The previous CPI result, recorded on May 15, stood at 3.4%.
Thielen emphasizes that a slight decrease to 3.3% could propel Bitcoin to new heights. In the lead-up to the May CPI announcement, he anticipates robust inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
However, should the CPI exceed expectations, Bitcoin’s momentum could falter, mirroring trends observed earlier in the year.
Since May 13, data from Farside has shown consistent daily inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a peak of $305.7 million on May 21.
Thielen asserts that Bitcoin’s price movements are not random but are significantly influenced by key factors, primarily inflation.
READ MORE: Hospitality Worker Jailed for $2.5 Billion Bitcoin Money Laundering in Britain’s Largest Seizure
Historical patterns support this view, as Bitcoin’s price has often dropped following higher-than-expected CPI results.
For instance, on April 10, the CPI was reported at 3.5%, just slightly above expectations.
This marginal increase led to a 6.67% drop in Bitcoin’s price, falling to $56,000 by April 30.
Thielen also reflected on the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11.
Despite a strong start with $611 million in inflows on the first day, the rest of January saw disappointing inflows. He attributed this to unexpectedly high CPI results.
“The CPI came in at 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected number and higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous month,” Thielen explained.
He concluded, “It is no coincidence that Bitcoin was weak in January, stronger into March, but then consolidated for two months.”
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Bitcoin has now spent 42 days in the “boredom zone,” and crypto traders are split on whether it is consolidating for another surge or facing a 20% pullback toward crucial support levels.
“We have now spent 42 days in the low volatility and boredom zone,” pseudonymous crypto trader CryptoCon declared in a May 30 X post, explaining a lack of volatility in Bitcoin’s price is the main sign of “boredom in the market.”
Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,680, just 6.7% higher than its price 42 days ago, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Apart from two occasions breaking outside its support and resistance levels, at $58,253, and reaching $71,443, Bitcoin has mainly traded within a narrow range throughout the period.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin’s extended consolidation is a positive sign that its price hasn’t peaked yet, forecasting that it only has “more room to run before topping out,” in a May 29 X post.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades believes Bitcoin is currently in the price discovery phase, where “anything goes really.”
READ MORE: Hospitality Worker Jailed for $2.5 Billion Bitcoin Money Laundering in Britain’s Largest Seizure
“In price discovery, it can be difficult to make targets as there are no levels to watch for,” Daan Crypto Trades argued in a May 29 X post.
He argued that once it breaks through its current all-time highs of $73,679, it could reach $102,073 before the year’s end.
However, crypto traders using different indicators are not as hopeful about what comes next.
Founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors Timothy Peterson pointed out that Bitcoin’s price may drop to somewhere around $54,190 based on the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value—an indicator suggesting the value of Bitcoin is proportional to the square of the number of users or participants in the Bitcoin network.
“This is Bitcoin’s Price to Metcalfe Value. When the ratio is >100% it has always predicted a bear market of -20% or more.
“This week, it hit 102%.
“There is a 2/3 chance of a -20% decline in 6 months,” Peterson explained.
“Odds are high that Bitcoin will drop to the low 50s sometime in the next 180 days,” he added.
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Tether‘s USDT, the world’s largest stablecoin, has minted another $1 billion, raising its market capitalization to over $110 billion.
This could potentially drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
In the past 24 hours, Tether’s treasury minted $1 billion worth of USDT, bringing its annual total to $31 billion.
According to a May 17 post from Lookonchain, this significant minting contributed to Bitcoin’s price rise from $27,000 to $73,000.
Tether is also directly investing in Bitcoin.
The company plans to invest 15% of its net profit in Bitcoin to diversify its stablecoin’s backing assets.
As of March 31, Tether had acquired 8,888 BTC worth $618 million, making it the seventh-largest Bitcoin holder globally, per Bitinfocharts.
Currently, Tether’s wallet holds over 78,317 BTC, valued at more than $5.18 billion, one year after announcing its diversification plan.
Bitcoin’s price movements are also influenced by institutional investments in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to Dune, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $200 million in net inflows over the past two weeks.
READ MORE: ShibaSwap Upgrades to Shibarium Blockchain, Introducing New Features and Enhanced User Experience
These institutional inflows have been crucial to Bitcoin’s current rally to new all-time highs.
By February 15, Bitcoin ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investments in Bitcoin as it crossed the $50,000 mark.
On May 16, Bitcoin’s price confirmed a breakout on the daily chart, with $65,000 acting as strong support, according to TradingView.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted in a May 16 X post that Bitcoin had turned its old resistance into support on the monthly chart, indicating a bullish trend.
However, Bitcoin might still experience a temporary correction to below $63,500 before reclaiming the $70,000 psychological mark.
ScorehoodAI’s prediction algorithm suggested a pullback to around $63,000-$63,500, calling it a healthy correction to liquidate high-leveraged positions.
A drop below $63,500 would liquidate over $1.76 billion in leveraged long positions, and under $63,000, liquidations would reach $1.87 billion, according to Coinglass data.
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Bitcoin investors are known for their bullish outlook, and despite multiple failed attempts to sustain prices above $71,000, derivatives betting on $80,000 and $90,000 continue to rise.
This is driven by expectations of high-volatility events such as geopolitical tensions, socio-political changes, U.S. presidential support, and increased corporate adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin bulls were overly optimistic, betting on $72,000 or higher
Bitcoin’s $6.5 billion options expiry on May 31 is a prime example.
Bulls’ failure to break the $70,000 resistance over the past week suggests these optimistic call (buy) options may become worthless.
Notably, 91% of these instruments were placed at $72,000 or higher, indicating a reliance on a sustained rally before May 31.
As the deadline nears, it appears Bitcoin bears may avoid significant losses.
Contrary to Bitcoin-only investor beliefs, BTC’s price is influenced by external factors like monetary policies, economic trends, inflation, unemployment, and confidence in the government’s bond-issuing capability.
Regardless of Bitcoin’s temporary correlation with the stock market and gold, investors usually hold cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds when market fear prevails.
The Nasdaq Composite index hitting an all-time high above 17,000 points on May 28 shows investor confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s soft landing plan.
This plan aims for inflation to return to its 2% target while maintaining favorable corporate earnings.
This scenario boosts the outlook for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, as reduced interest rates are expected.
The optimistic bets for Bitcoin’s monthly options expiry at 8:00 am UTC on May 31 reflect the 25% gains as BTC soared from $56,883 to $71,417 in early May.
However, this rally was unsustainable, especially after the approval of the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., creating competition for institutional funds.
Aggregate data predicts a $270 million profit for bulls if BTC trades above $70,000
To understand the odds for each BTC expiry price level, analyzing the open interest of calls (buy) and puts (sell) is essential.
READ MORE: AI Project Worldcoin Faces Scrutiny Over Biometric Data Collection Amid Privacy Concerns
Call options dominate with a 70% higher notional value, but Deribit’s $4.62 billion open interest will likely be much lower if BTC trades below $70,000 on May 31.
Similarly, put option investors will be disappointed if Bitcoin remains near $67,800, as only 5% of those $1.7 billion contracts were placed at $68,000 or higher.
Deribit leads the options market with a 71% market share of Bitcoin’s monthly open interest in May. However, aggregate data from various exchanges show different investor profiles.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the second-largest player with $745 million, followed by OKX with $600 million. Binance and Bybit totaled $315 million and $160 million, respectively.
If Bitcoin stays near $67,800 on May 31, the aggregate open interest for call options will be $135 million, while put options at $68,000 will amount to $145 million.
This level is fairly balanced, but both bulls and bears have incentives to influence the price before expiry.
For instance, a $65,900 price would favor put options by $95 million, while an expiry at $70,000 or higher would give call options a $270 million advantage.
With less than three days until expiry, it seems unlikely bulls will push Bitcoin’s price above $70,000 without short-term catalysts, favoring a neutral outcome near $68,000.
To submit a crypto press release (PR), send an email to sales@cryptointelligence.co.uk.
Technology company Nvidia‘s (NVDA) outperformance of Bitcoin over the past ten years is not expected to continue into the next decade, according to several crypto executives.
“Near zero chance of Nvidia outperforming Bitcoin over the next 10 years,” argued Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten in a May 24 X post.
“I’d pick Bitcoin over Nvidia for the next ten years, personally,” investment strategist Lyn Alden stated, after pointing out on X that NVDA “is one of the few assets that has outperformed Bitcoin over a 10-year time period.”
From May 23, 2014, to May 23, 2024, Nvidia — known for producing chips used to train and deploy artificial intelligence (AI) models — achieved a return of 21,558%, while Bitcoin returned 13,048%, as per Statmuse data.
Over the last three months, following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 10, Bitcoin has slightly outperformed Nvidia with returns of 31.7% compared to Nvidia’s 30.2%.
The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that a $10,000 investment in Nvidia stock in 1999 would be worth $25.3 million today, as mentioned in a May 24 X post.
READ MORE: Bitcoin and Ether Dip 3.5% Amid Institutional ETF Approval and Market Uncertainty
Daniel Sempere Pico speculated whether Nvidia was seen as an even riskier investment back in 2014 when both Bitcoin and AI were less mainstream.
“Don’t know if the whole AI thing could have been predicted by anyone back in 2014, but there were some people who could already see Bitcoin’s potential,” Pico explained.
“If we were to go back to 2014, I wonder which one we’d think is more risky and less obvious to achieve such incredible returns,” he added.
However, the co-founder of 21st.capital, known as “Sina” on X, argued that financial assets generally have broader network effects than AI as more people begin to use them.
“There are no network effects in AI. There are multiple layers of network effects in money,” Sina argued in a May 24 post.
While there are optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s performance over the next 24 months, some experts also warn of potential significant corrections.
On March 4, Cointelegraph reported that former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi, using his “Power Law” model, predicts that Bitcoin could peak at $210,000 in January 2026 before falling to as low as $60,000 afterward.
To submit a crypto press release (PR), send an email to sales@cryptointelligence.co.uk.
Bitcoin investors are known for their bullish outlook, and despite multiple failed attempts to sustain prices above $71,000, derivatives betting on $80,000 and $90,000 continue to rise.
This is driven by expectations of high-volatility events such as geopolitical tensions, socio-political changes, U.S. presidential support, and increased corporate adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin bulls were overly optimistic, betting on $72,000 or higher
Bitcoin’s $6.5 billion options expiry on May 31 is a prime example.
Bulls’ failure to break the $70,000 resistance over the past week suggests these optimistic call (buy) options may become worthless.
Notably, 91% of these instruments were placed at $72,000 or higher, indicating a reliance on a sustained rally before May 31.
As the deadline nears, it appears Bitcoin bears may avoid significant losses.
Contrary to Bitcoin-only investor beliefs, BTC’s price is influenced by external factors like monetary policies, economic trends, inflation, unemployment, and confidence in the government’s bond-issuing capability.
Regardless of Bitcoin’s temporary correlation with the stock market and gold, investors usually hold cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds when market fear prevails.
The Nasdaq Composite index hitting an all-time high above 17,000 points on May 28 shows investor confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s soft landing plan.
This plan aims for inflation to return to its 2% target while maintaining favorable corporate earnings.
This scenario boosts the outlook for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, as reduced interest rates are expected.
The optimistic bets for Bitcoin’s monthly options expiry at 8:00 am UTC on May 31 reflect the 25% gains as BTC soared from $56,883 to $71,417 in early May.
However, this rally was unsustainable, especially after the approval of the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., creating competition for institutional funds.
Aggregate data predicts a $270 million profit for bulls if BTC trades above $70,000
To understand the odds for each BTC expiry price level, analyzing the open interest of calls (buy) and puts (sell) is essential.
READ MORE: AI Project Worldcoin Faces Scrutiny Over Biometric Data Collection Amid Privacy Concerns
Call options dominate with a 70% higher notional value, but Deribit’s $4.62 billion open interest will likely be much lower if BTC trades below $70,000 on May 31.
Similarly, put option investors will be disappointed if Bitcoin remains near $67,800, as only 5% of those $1.7 billion contracts were placed at $68,000 or higher.
Deribit leads the options market with a 71% market share of Bitcoin’s monthly open interest in May. However, aggregate data from various exchanges show different investor profiles.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the second-largest player with $745 million, followed by OKX with $600 million. Binance and Bybit totaled $315 million and $160 million, respectively.
If Bitcoin stays near $67,800 on May 31, the aggregate open interest for call options will be $135 million, while put options at $68,000 will amount to $145 million.
This level is fairly balanced, but both bulls and bears have incentives to influence the price before expiry.
For instance, a $65,900 price would favor put options by $95 million, while an expiry at $70,000 or higher would give call options a $270 million advantage.
With less than three days until expiry, it seems unlikely bulls will push Bitcoin’s price above $70,000 without short-term catalysts, favoring a neutral outcome near $68,000.
To submit a crypto press release (PR), send an email to sales@cryptointelligence.co.uk.