Bitcoin (BTC) remained largely unaffected by global macroeconomic events on August 13, with its price action staying below the $60,000 mark.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView highlighted a lackluster performance for BTC/USD during the Wall Street open, contrasting with the more positive sentiment in stock markets.
The day’s bullish mood was driven by Japan, where the Nikkei 225 fully recovered its significant losses from earlier in the month. The index closed at 36,232 points, marking a 3.45% increase.
U.S. equities also showed promise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively, within the first hour of trading. This strong performance was fueled by the July Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which came in below expectations. The lower-than-expected PPI numbers spurred bets on interest rate cuts and increased capital flows into risk assets.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that markets are now favoring a larger 0.5% rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting in September. Before the PPI release, markets had leaned toward a 0.25% cut.
Commenting on Bitcoin’s muted response to these developments, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted how macroeconomic data releases often lead to short-term fakeout moves in the market.
“This was just PPI, so the move wasn’t large,” he remarked in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “We tend to see similar things with CPI, which often causes much larger (and slightly slower) whipsaw moves.”
Bitcoin (BTC) remained largely unaffected by global macroeconomic events on August 13, with its price action staying below the $60,000 mark.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView highlighted a lackluster performance for BTC/USD during the Wall Street open, contrasting with the more positive sentiment in stock markets.
The day’s bullish mood was driven by Japan, where the Nikkei 225 fully recovered its significant losses from earlier in the month. The index closed at 36,232 points, marking a 3.45% increase.
U.S. equities also showed promise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively, within the first hour of trading. This strong performance was fueled by the July Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which came in below expectations. The lower-than-expected PPI numbers spurred bets on interest rate cuts and increased capital flows into risk assets.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that markets are now favoring a larger 0.5% rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting in September. Before the PPI release, markets had leaned toward a 0.25% cut.
Commenting on Bitcoin’s muted response to these developments, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted how macroeconomic data releases often lead to short-term fakeout moves in the market.
“This was just PPI, so the move wasn’t large,” he remarked in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “We tend to see similar things with CPI, which often causes much larger (and slightly slower) whipsaw moves.”
On August 12, Bitcoin experienced a sharp spike in volatility, initially dropping 3.2% to $57,844 in under an hour before rebounding by 5% to reach $60,700 within the next thirty minutes. This sudden price swing reflects the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, particularly following remarks from a U.S. Federal Reserve governor over the weekend. These comments also contributed to a surge in gold prices, which climbed to $2,458, just 1% below its all-time high.
The potential for an economic downturn poses the biggest risk for a Bitcoin price crash. Traders are now questioning whether Bitcoin might retest its August 5 low of $49,248, especially given the declining interest in leveraged BTC longs and the increasing risk of a correction in the global stock market.
JPMorgan economists have raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2024 to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 25%. This adjustment, as reported by Bloomberg, is due to weak labor market conditions and a restrictive Federal Reserve policy. On August 10, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that inflation risks persist and the labor market remains weak, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the U.S. Producer Price Index on August 13 and the Consumer Price Index on August 14, which are expected to offer clues about the Fed’s next moves.
To better understand the recent Bitcoin price volatility, it’s important to analyze the Bitcoin futures markets. BTC monthly futures carry an inherent cost due to their extended settlement period, with sellers typically demanding a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate.
The annualized Bitcoin futures premium fell to 6% on August 12, down from 9% on August 11 as Bitcoin retested the $58,000 support level. Although this level remains within the neutral range, it indicates a lack of demand for leverage from bulls—a trend that has persisted since July 30, the last time the premium exceeded 10%.
To assess whether this sentiment shift is isolated to the futures market, it’s useful to examine Bitcoin options markets. The delta skew metric, which indicates market sentiment, has remained stable over the past week, suggesting no significant imbalance in the pricing of put (sell) and call (buy) options. Despite the recent price drop, there are no signs of stress, and the market remains neutral.
One explanation for this neutral sentiment could be the reduction of excessive leverage in the market. The recent volatility likely reduced demand for leverage, with both bulls and bears facing liquidations totaling $634 million in BTC futures. However, this doesn’t fully explain why Bitcoin futures open interest remains at $28.8 billion.
The most likely reason for the current sentiment is the rise of “cash and carry” strategies, where traders engage in fixed-income operations to capture the futures premium, rendering market direction irrelevant. This suggests that Bitcoin derivatives are becoming less reliant on retail trading, with CME emerging as the leader with a 29% market share. Even with ongoing price volatility, there is no clear indication that traders are turning bearish or that excessive liquidation could lead to a significant drop down to $52,000.
On August 12, Bitcoin experienced a sharp spike in volatility, initially dropping 3.2% to $57,844 in under an hour before rebounding by 5% to reach $60,700 within the next thirty minutes. This sudden price swing reflects the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, particularly following remarks from a U.S. Federal Reserve governor over the weekend. These comments also contributed to a surge in gold prices, which climbed to $2,458, just 1% below its all-time high.
The potential for an economic downturn poses the biggest risk for a Bitcoin price crash. Traders are now questioning whether Bitcoin might retest its August 5 low of $49,248, especially given the declining interest in leveraged BTC longs and the increasing risk of a correction in the global stock market.
JPMorgan economists have raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2024 to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 25%. This adjustment, as reported by Bloomberg, is due to weak labor market conditions and a restrictive Federal Reserve policy. On August 10, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that inflation risks persist and the labor market remains weak, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the U.S. Producer Price Index on August 13 and the Consumer Price Index on August 14, which are expected to offer clues about the Fed’s next moves.
To better understand the recent Bitcoin price volatility, it’s important to analyze the Bitcoin futures markets. BTC monthly futures carry an inherent cost due to their extended settlement period, with sellers typically demanding a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate.
The annualized Bitcoin futures premium fell to 6% on August 12, down from 9% on August 11 as Bitcoin retested the $58,000 support level. Although this level remains within the neutral range, it indicates a lack of demand for leverage from bulls—a trend that has persisted since July 30, the last time the premium exceeded 10%.
To assess whether this sentiment shift is isolated to the futures market, it’s useful to examine Bitcoin options markets. The delta skew metric, which indicates market sentiment, has remained stable over the past week, suggesting no significant imbalance in the pricing of put (sell) and call (buy) options. Despite the recent price drop, there are no signs of stress, and the market remains neutral.
One explanation for this neutral sentiment could be the reduction of excessive leverage in the market. The recent volatility likely reduced demand for leverage, with both bulls and bears facing liquidations totaling $634 million in BTC futures. However, this doesn’t fully explain why Bitcoin futures open interest remains at $28.8 billion.
The most likely reason for the current sentiment is the rise of “cash and carry” strategies, where traders engage in fixed-income operations to capture the futures premium, rendering market direction irrelevant. This suggests that Bitcoin derivatives are becoming less reliant on retail trading, with CME emerging as the leader with a 29% market share. Even with ongoing price volatility, there is no clear indication that traders are turning bearish or that excessive liquidation could lead to a significant drop down to $52,000.
Morgan Stanley, the largest wealth manager in the United States, is likely to face intense compliance scrutiny after permitting its entire team of financial advisers to start pitching spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This move has drawn criticism from crypto skeptic John Reed Stark, a former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) official.
“By unleashing its legion of 15,000 brokers to pitch Bitcoin, Morgan Stanley has just voluntarily subjected themselves to what will likely become the largest SEC and FINRA examination sweep in history,” Stark wrote in an August 9 statement on X (formerly Twitter). He added, “Identifying violations will be like shooting fish in a barrel. So whoever Morgan Stanley’s current compliance director is — well, good luck with that.”
Stark explained that both the SEC and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) will have immediate access to all records, documents, emails, texts, voicemails, and phone conversations related to Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin sales to retail investors. “This resplendent, abundant, and easily accessible treasure trove of evidence will be available to the SEC and FINRA not only with the click of a mouse in the form of a request for documents or testimony but also upon demand during an on-site surprise ‘for-cause’ inspection,” Stark warned, calling the move “Morgan Stanley’s death wish.”
The criticism follows reports that Morgan Stanley authorized its 15,000 financial advisers to start recommending spot Bitcoin ETFs to high-net-worth clients. A source familiar with the matter confirmed to Cointelegraph on August 7 that the firm plans to endorse two Bitcoin ETF products: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund.
Crypto industry commentators believe Morgan Stanley’s move could be significant for Bitcoin. Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture fund Dragonfly, commented on X, “Expect to see some chunkier inflows in the second half of the year,” adding, “Can you imagine how big this is?”
Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11, they have attracted $17.3 billion in inflows, according to data from Farside.
Institutional investors have paused their accumulation of stablecoins, leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price below a key psychological level.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price fell by 3.9%, trading at $58,930 as of 08:03 am UTC on August 12, down from a weekly high of $62,510.
The dip below the $60,000 mark appears to be linked to institutions halting their stablecoin buying spree, according to an August 12 post on X by on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain: “Institutions seem to have temporarily stopped buying, and the price of $BTC dropped 4.5% today! We noticed that institutions stopped receiving $USDT from #TetherTreasury and transferring it to exchanges 2 days ago.”
Stablecoin inflows to crypto exchanges are a key indicator of buying pressure and investor interest, as they serve as the primary on-ramp from fiat to crypto for many investors. The recent halt in institutional stablecoin inflows could indicate a temporary lack of appetite for Bitcoin.
From August 5 to August 9, Tether, which issues the world’s largest stablecoin (USDT), minted over $1.3 billion worth of stablecoins, coinciding with a market bottom. This influx of stablecoins was transferred to major centralized exchanges, including Kraken, Coinbase, OKX, and Bullish.
Bitcoin had reached a five-month low of just above $49,500 on August 5 but rebounded by over 21% to surpass $60,000 by August 9. The price could recover above the $60,000 resistance level once large institutional stablecoin inflows resume.
Technical analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin needs to reclaim $60,600 to sustain its upward momentum, stating in an August 10 post: “Bitcoin is doing all the right things to confirm $60,600 as support so as to position price for a revisit of $65,000+ over time.”
Morgan Stanley, the largest wealth manager in the United States, is likely to face intense compliance scrutiny after permitting its entire team of financial advisers to start pitching spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This move has drawn criticism from crypto skeptic John Reed Stark, a former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) official.
“By unleashing its legion of 15,000 brokers to pitch Bitcoin, Morgan Stanley has just voluntarily subjected themselves to what will likely become the largest SEC and FINRA examination sweep in history,” Stark wrote in an August 9 statement on X (formerly Twitter). He added, “Identifying violations will be like shooting fish in a barrel. So whoever Morgan Stanley’s current compliance director is — well, good luck with that.”
Stark explained that both the SEC and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) will have immediate access to all records, documents, emails, texts, voicemails, and phone conversations related to Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin sales to retail investors. “This resplendent, abundant, and easily accessible treasure trove of evidence will be available to the SEC and FINRA not only with the click of a mouse in the form of a request for documents or testimony but also upon demand during an on-site surprise ‘for-cause’ inspection,” Stark warned, calling the move “Morgan Stanley’s death wish.”
The criticism follows reports that Morgan Stanley authorized its 15,000 financial advisers to start recommending spot Bitcoin ETFs to high-net-worth clients. A source familiar with the matter confirmed to Cointelegraph on August 7 that the firm plans to endorse two Bitcoin ETF products: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund.
Crypto industry commentators believe Morgan Stanley’s move could be significant for Bitcoin. Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture fund Dragonfly, commented on X, “Expect to see some chunkier inflows in the second half of the year,” adding, “Can you imagine how big this is?”
Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11, they have attracted $17.3 billion in inflows, according to data from Farside.
The Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator, which tracks phases of investor sentiment, has shifted to signal bullish conditions after three days of flashing bearish signals as Bitcoin’s price plunged to levels not seen since February.
“Most Bitcoin on-chain cyclical indicators that were hovering near the borderline have now shifted back to signaling a bull market,” CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju wrote in an Aug. 9 post on X (formerly Twitter). Pseudonymous crypto trader PlanB added, “Bitcoin is still in a bull market.”
The indicator had entered “Bear” territory when Bitcoin’s price dropped below $50,000, following a steep decline to $49,751 on Aug. 5, a day now referred to as “Crypto Black Monday.” This marked the first time Bitcoin fell below $50,000 since February. Bitcoin continued to trade below the critical $60,000 level until Aug. 8, according to CoinMarketCap data. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $60,732.
This recent downturn marked the first bear signal from the bull-bear market cycle indicator since January 2023, shortly after the FTX collapse. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also reflected this bearish sentiment, hitting an “Extreme Fear” score of 17 on Aug. 6, the lowest since the FTX crash. The index has since recovered to a “Neutral” reading of 48.
Some traders believe the swift reversal suggests the recent price dip could have been a bear trap, where experienced traders sell Bitcoin in a controlled manner to temporarily lower the price and trap short-sellers.
Analysts are divided on what comes next. While some see the recent downturn as a precursor to a bull run, others remain cautious. On Aug. 7, 10x Research’s head of research Markus Thielen suggested waiting for Bitcoin to drop into the low $40,000s to time the next bull market entry. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that Bitcoin’s decline since the halving is similar to the 2015-2017 halving bull market cycle, hinting at a potential bull run ahead.
Tether, the issuer of USDT—the world’s largest stablecoin—has minted over $1.3 billion worth of USDT since the market bottom, as investors appear to be positioning themselves to buy the dip.
Since the market hit its low on August 5, Tether’s treasury has printed over $1.3 billion in USDT. This newly minted USDT has been transferred to several major centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, including Kraken, Coinbase, OKX, and Bullish, according to an August 9 post on X by Lookonchain.
Large inflows of stablecoins like USDT to crypto exchanges often indicate that investors are preparing to buy assets, as stablecoins serve as the primary gateway for converting fiat currency into cryptocurrencies.
Following a significant $510 billion sell-off in the crypto market, there is speculation that the local market may have reached its bottom. Since August 5, when Bitcoin (BTC) hit a five-month low of just above $49,500, the cryptocurrency has shown signs of recovery. According to Bitstamp data, Bitcoin’s price has rebounded by over 21%, reaching $60,271 as of 10:44 am UTC. In the past 24 hours alone, Bitcoin has risen by more than 5.2%.
Despite this recovery, Bitcoin may still face volatility unless it can break through the crucial $64,000–$65,000 resistance level. This price range is significant because it represents the short-term realized price for large Bitcoin holding entities, often referred to as “whales.” As noted in an August 9 post by CryptoQuant, “The short-term holder whale realized price is in the 64K-65K range. This level may present itself as a resistance.”
Investors are now watching closely to see if the influx of USDT can help push Bitcoin above this key threshold.
Tether, the issuer of USDT—the world’s largest stablecoin—has minted over $1.3 billion worth of USDT since the market bottom, as investors appear to be positioning themselves to buy the dip.
Since the market hit its low on August 5, Tether’s treasury has printed over $1.3 billion in USDT. This newly minted USDT has been transferred to several major centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, including Kraken, Coinbase, OKX, and Bullish, according to an August 9 post on X by Lookonchain.
Large inflows of stablecoins like USDT to crypto exchanges often indicate that investors are preparing to buy assets, as stablecoins serve as the primary gateway for converting fiat currency into cryptocurrencies.
Following a significant $510 billion sell-off in the crypto market, there is speculation that the local market may have reached its bottom. Since August 5, when Bitcoin (BTC) hit a five-month low of just above $49,500, the cryptocurrency has shown signs of recovery. According to Bitstamp data, Bitcoin’s price has rebounded by over 21%, reaching $60,271 as of 10:44 am UTC. In the past 24 hours alone, Bitcoin has risen by more than 5.2%.
Despite this recovery, Bitcoin may still face volatility unless it can break through the crucial $64,000–$65,000 resistance level. This price range is significant because it represents the short-term realized price for large Bitcoin holding entities, often referred to as “whales.” As noted in an August 9 post by CryptoQuant, “The short-term holder whale realized price is in the 64K-65K range. This level may present itself as a resistance.”
Investors are now watching closely to see if the influx of USDT can help push Bitcoin above this key threshold.