Bitcoin could face additional selling pressure into September as both Mt. Gox and the United States government potentially introduce nearly $15 billion worth of Bitcoin into the market.
Currently, the U.S. government holds over 203,000 Bitcoin valued at approximately $12.1 billion. Meanwhile, the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox is poised to distribute another 46,000 Bitcoin, valued at over $2.7 billion.
Despite the large sums involved, a recent report by crypto analytics provider Kaiko, dated Aug. 29, suggests that the market might absorb these distributions without significant disruption. The report states:
“Kraken has handled BTC ETF flows with just a minor increase in slippage at the US market close. Its liquidity profile suggests that any additional selling pressure from the Mt. Gox repayments is unlikely to cause structural issues that could affect the broader market.”
Mt. Gox creditors have been awaiting the release of over $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoin for the past decade, a stash that has appreciated over 8,500% in value. This substantial increase suggests that many investors might be inclined to sell.
Despite the potential for significant market movements, historical data indicates that Mt. Gox creditors have not aggressively sold off their Bitcoin. After nearly $4 billion worth of BTC was distributed at the end of July, accounting for 41.5% of the payments owed to users, most creditors opted to retain their Bitcoin. A July 29 report from Glassnode highlighted this trend:
“Creditors opted to receive BTC, rather than fiat, which was new in Japanese bankruptcy law […] As such, it is relatively likely that only a subset of these distributed coins will be truly sold onto the market.”
Furthermore, the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), which measures the net difference between spot buying and selling trade volume on centralized exchanges, did not show a significant increase on Kraken following the Mt. Gox BTC distribution. This suggests that the actual selling impact of these distributions may be less than anticipated.
Bitcoin approached the $60,000 mark around the Wall Street open on August 29, buoyed by U.S. macroeconomic data that didn’t shake market stability significantly. Trading data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that Bitcoin reached local highs of $60,845 on Bitstamp, reflecting a 3% increase for the day. This performance aligned with U.S. jobless claims and GDP figures, which largely met expectations, although jobless claims were slightly higher than anticipated.
The economic data had minimal effect on market projections regarding upcoming financial policy shifts. Predictions from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggested that the market is expecting a 0.25% interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. In response to these expectations, the trading team at QCP Capital commented on their Telegram channel:
“We believe that any dip in equities (and crypto) will be short-lived,” adding, “With Powell and the Fed ready to kickstart a rate-cutting cycle, increased liquidity will eventually push risk assets higher. We are finally on the cusp of a rate-cutting cycle.”
Bitcoin’s price aimed to stabilize, providing some relief to investors hopeful for continued upward momentum. Monitoring by CoinGlass highlighted that, despite attempts to suppress price gains, liquidity remained tight on shorter timeframes. The question posed by trading resource Material Indicators on X was, “Will it hold?”
Supporting a positive outlook, trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted ongoing strength in Bitcoin’s market behavior:
“So far, so good,” he stated, observing that, “The retest continues to be successful as the week goes on. Bitcoin has also been forming Higher Lows since early July.”
Looking forward, the trading environment was described as “predatory” by trader Jelle, suggesting caution among investors. He advised:
“Environment remains predatory, which means your best bet remains to sit on your hands,” noting, “Above $62,000 — could turn into a stronger trending move again.” This caution reflects a market sensitive to liquidity and price movements, especially near critical thresholds.
Amid increasing costs and reduced block rewards, Bitcoin miners are facing significant financial strain. Andy Fajar Handika, CEO and co-founder of Loka Mining, a decentralized mining pool operator, proposes a novel solution to alleviate some of these challenges. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Handika introduced the concept of forward hashrate contracts. This financial instrument allows miners to sell their future hashrate in exchange for fiat-denominated loans from creditors, potentially sustaining operations and funding growth.
“It means that you can use your debt money to buy more mining machines and hedge your price volatility risk because the risk of Bitcoin’s price in fiat is now passed over to the investors, who buy the mining contract,” explained Handika. He elaborated that these tokenized contracts, available in 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms, not only help miners manage financial risk but also provide creditors with assets that can be re-used as collateral for other loans.
This approach offers an alternative to traditional fundraising methods such as initial public offerings or corporate debt, which are often inaccessible to smaller mining operations. Typically, these smaller entities must resort to selling their Bitcoin holdings or using them as collateral for loans in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.
The volatility of Bitcoin’s price presents significant risks for these traditional financing methods. Handika pointed to a recent market downturn, referred to as a “black swan” event, where Bitcoin’s value plummeted from around $59,000 to approximately $49,500 on August 5, 2024, illustrating the dangers inherent in these strategies.
The Bitcoin mining industry is grappling with economic challenges highlighted by a report from cloud mining firm BitFuFu, which showed a 168% surge in mining costs over the past year. These escalating expenses, along with a reduction in block subsidy, have put considerable financial pressure on miners, prompting some to diversify into sectors like artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.
Further emphasizing the sector’s difficulties, a JPMorgan report highlighted that well-capitalized mining companies are acquiring struggling competitors, indicating ongoing consolidation within the industry.
Bitcoin’s performance compared to the S&P 500 suggests a downturn, as it remains significantly below its all-time highs against the index.
In a recent analysis on X, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone indicated that Bitcoin might be losing its leading position in the risk-asset race. McGlone referred to Bitcoin’s current state as suffering from a “hangover.”
Bitcoin has not only failed to reach its previous peak from March but also shows signs of broader systemic weakness. McGlone pointed out that Bitcoin’s value is currently about 11 times that of the S&P 500, which is near its own all-time highs. This is a decrease from the first quarter of 2020, when Bitcoin peaked at 15 times the value of the S&P 500—a record that remains unbeaten. McGlone speculated about a potential further decline, suggesting the ratio could halve from its historic high.
“Is the fastest horse signaling the race is over?” McGlone questioned, referring to Bitcoin’s performance.
“At about 11x now, the Bitcoin/S&P 500 peak was 15x in 1Q20 and this year’s lower high was 14x. The biggest money pump in history and US ETF launches in past tense may suggest a hangover, pendulum swing back toward 7x Bitcoin/SPX.”
Following his initial post, McGlone reiterated his views, suggesting that Bitcoin is continuing to “roll over” in the financial race.
“The fastest horse in the race may be signaling the race is over,” he wrote in response to a question about Bitcoin’s lackluster performance compared to other risk assets.
This underperformance is notable, especially when contrasted with assets like gold, which has reached new all-time highs this month, as reported by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin is poised to enter what one analyst terms “batshit season,” potentially driving BTC’s price up to $150,000 by the end of 2024. However, some analysts warn that a short-term seller overhang might hinder the rally.
In an Aug. 26 X post, Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts remarked that “unless something has fundamentally changed,” Bitcoin’s price action remains set to enter “batshit season,” also referred to as the Banana Zone, a concept introduced by Real Vision founder Raoul Pal.
Coutts shared a chart showing that in the past two bull cycles, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs within 365 days following local peaks in the US Dollar Index. He speculated that if Bitcoin mirrors previous bull market trends, it could more than double from its current price of around $64,000 to potentially hit $150,000 by the end of 2024.
Bitcoin could rally over 100% if it follows previous cycle trends. Source: Jamie Coutts
However, not all analysts share this optimistic short-term outlook. Pseudonymous CryptoQuant researcher “XBTManager” highlighted the presence of significant selling pressure for Bitcoin.
In an Aug. 27 research note, XBTManager observed that large short-term Bitcoin sellers had “become active.” He noted that although Bitcoin staged a successful rally last week, certain dormant metrics had begun to show signs of renewed activity.
“Short-term holders transferred 33,155 Bitcoin as shown by the 1w-1m spent output age bands. This could present immediate selling pressure. The slowdown in price suggests that Bitcoin might initiate a free pullback,” wrote XBTManager.
XBTManager advised traders to exercise “extra caution” if these figures increase, indicating that a potential sell-off could gain momentum.
On Aug. 23, Bitcoin’s price surged by 6.2% and has since remained above the $63,000 support level.
Despite this bullish price action, many Bitcoin derivatives traders remain skeptical, indicating caution towards the recent upward move. The Bitcoin futures premium, a critical gauge of risk appetite for derivatives, has stagnated around 6% over the past month, reflecting professional traders’ reluctance to initiate leveraged long positions.
Crypto traders have identified a pattern on Bitcoin’s price chart that could potentially signal a move toward reclaiming its 2021 all-time highs.
In an analysis video dated Aug. 24, the pseudonymous crypto trader Mister Crypto highlighted the Bitcoin price chart, noting that if Bitcoin breaks above the $64,000 level, it is “very likely” to return to the $68,000 level, a price point it hasn’t seen since July 30.
The approach to $68,000 would likely lead traders to speculate on whether Bitcoin could surpass its 2021 all-time high of $68,991, a key benchmark closely monitored as 2024 unfolds.
As of the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading just above the $64,245 mark, based on CoinMarketCap data. However, it only broke through the $64,000 level on Aug. 23 for the first time in 20 days and struggled to hold above it, subsequently retracing back toward $63,500.
The breakthrough followed dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which further increased confidence among U.S. investors that interest rate cuts are imminent, although Powell did not provide a specific timeline.
Earlier, $64,000 was seen as a significant support level for Bitcoin after the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) on Jan. 11. However, a recent downturn on Aug. 5, dubbed “Crypto Black Monday,” turned this level into resistance.
Mister Crypto cautioned investors that Bitcoin’s price is unlikely to make significant moves over the weekend and may consolidate around its current level.
Meanwhile, crypto trader Elja told their 684,400 X followers, “It’s time for bulls to push Bitcoin towards $68K-$70K.”
Elja’s optimism is partly based on the relative strength index (RSI), which indicates that Bitcoin’s price is not overbought yet. When the RSI is above 70, it suggests a potentially overbought market, while below 30 indicates a possibly oversold market.
Currently, Bitcoin’s RSI stands at 66.11, according to Bitbo data. During Bitcoin’s all-time high of $73,679 in March this year, the RSI surged to 79.
Bitcoin surged past $62,000 after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cuts since 2019, following the Aug. 23 Wall Street open.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin (BTC) reaching new local highs of $62,323 on Bitstamp. Investors responded positively to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation that interest rates were set to decline. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell stated during his speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.
The event had been highly anticipated by markets looking for signs of easing policy. Powell indicated a dovish stance, suggesting an “appropriate dialing back of policy restraint,” but he did not provide a specific timeline for when the rate cuts would commence. “The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions,” he added.
Employment was a central topic, especially after a revision of job openings for the 12 months through March 2024 showed a decrease of 818,000. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that markets are now betting on a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting at the end of September.
Bitcoin market commentators were optimistic in response. “Powell goes full dove,” summarized Scott Melker, a trader, analyst, and podcast host known as the “Wolf of All Streets.” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, predicted, “Up only time for crypto.”
The latest data from CoinGlass revealed a new block of ask liquidity at $62,450, temporarily capping Bitcoin’s price increase. However, $62,000 remained a crucial breakout level for bullish sentiment to take hold on daily timeframes.
“Bitcoin is still facing a crucial breakout. If it breaks through $62K, that would be a sign for the markets to continue rallying this week,” said Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, in his analysis. He added that the recent influx of capital into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) made this breakout scenario likely.
Bitcoin surged past $62,000 after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cuts since 2019, following the Aug. 23 Wall Street open.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin (BTC) reaching new local highs of $62,323 on Bitstamp. Investors responded positively to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation that interest rates were set to decline. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell stated during his speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.
The event had been highly anticipated by markets looking for signs of easing policy. Powell indicated a dovish stance, suggesting an “appropriate dialing back of policy restraint,” but he did not provide a specific timeline for when the rate cuts would commence. “The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions,” he added.
Employment was a central topic, especially after a revision of job openings for the 12 months through March 2024 showed a decrease of 818,000. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that markets are now betting on a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting at the end of September.
Bitcoin market commentators were optimistic in response. “Powell goes full dove,” summarized Scott Melker, a trader, analyst, and podcast host known as the “Wolf of All Streets.” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, predicted, “Up only time for crypto.”
The latest data from CoinGlass revealed a new block of ask liquidity at $62,450, temporarily capping Bitcoin’s price increase. However, $62,000 remained a crucial breakout level for bullish sentiment to take hold on daily timeframes.
“Bitcoin is still facing a crucial breakout. If it breaks through $62K, that would be a sign for the markets to continue rallying this week,” said Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, in his analysis. He added that the recent influx of capital into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) made this breakout scenario likely.
El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office (ONBTC) has initiated a comprehensive training program to educate and certify 80,000 government employees on Bitcoin. The Bitcoin-friendly nation aims to equip public servants with essential knowledge on the strategic management and public policies surrounding Bitcoin.
This extensive 160-hour virtual and asynchronous training, known as Certification in Public Administration 1, is structured into seven modules. Each module covers various concepts, laws, skills, and management techniques related to the use of Bitcoin as legal tender.
Stacy Herbert, director of ONBTC, anticipates that educating civil servants will have a “compounding effect” on El Salvador’s Bitcoin-driven economy. She plans to introduce more educational initiatives, emphasizing the importance of these long-term commitments to the country’s success. “These education projects are very low time preference commitments to the long-term success of El Salvador and its Bitcoin (and tech) policy,” Herbert stated.
The Bitcoin certification program is conducted by the Higher School of Innovation in Public Administration (ESIAP), an institution inaugurated by President Nayib Bukele in August 2021. According to ONBTC, also known as “The Bitcoin Office,” the curriculum is specifically designed “to strengthen the standard of excellence in governance and public administration in El Salvador.”
El Salvador’s success with Bitcoin adoption has attracted the attention of other nations, particularly those grappling with hyperinflation. In May, Argentina began collaborating with El Salvador to learn from its experience with Bitcoin adoption and other cryptocurrency activities.
Argentina’s securities regulator, the National Securities Commission (CNV), met with El Salvador’s National Commission of Digital Assets (CNAD) to discuss strategies for crypto adoption and regulation in both countries.
El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office (ONBTC) has initiated a comprehensive training program to educate and certify 80,000 government employees on Bitcoin. The Bitcoin-friendly nation aims to equip public servants with essential knowledge on the strategic management and public policies surrounding Bitcoin.
This extensive 160-hour virtual and asynchronous training, known as Certification in Public Administration 1, is structured into seven modules. Each module covers various concepts, laws, skills, and management techniques related to the use of Bitcoin as legal tender.
Stacy Herbert, director of ONBTC, anticipates that educating civil servants will have a “compounding effect” on El Salvador’s Bitcoin-driven economy. She plans to introduce more educational initiatives, emphasizing the importance of these long-term commitments to the country’s success. “These education projects are very low time preference commitments to the long-term success of El Salvador and its Bitcoin (and tech) policy,” Herbert stated.
The Bitcoin certification program is conducted by the Higher School of Innovation in Public Administration (ESIAP), an institution inaugurated by President Nayib Bukele in August 2021. According to ONBTC, also known as “The Bitcoin Office,” the curriculum is specifically designed “to strengthen the standard of excellence in governance and public administration in El Salvador.”
El Salvador’s success with Bitcoin adoption has attracted the attention of other nations, particularly those grappling with hyperinflation. In May, Argentina began collaborating with El Salvador to learn from its experience with Bitcoin adoption and other cryptocurrency activities.
Argentina’s securities regulator, the National Securities Commission (CNV), met with El Salvador’s National Commission of Digital Assets (CNAD) to discuss strategies for crypto adoption and regulation in both countries.