Bitcoin faces potential selling pressure as the dollar value of long-term holders’ (LTH) BTC exposure declines by billions of dollars.
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that while speculators are stepping in, seasoned holders are becoming more risk-averse.
Bitcoin long-term holders, who have held BTC for 155 days or more, appear to be taking profits amid growing enthusiasm for Bitcoin reaching all-time highs.
CryptoQuant analyzed the net position change of LTH entities and found a “sharp decrease” in their BTC exposure.
“There has been a recent sharp decrease of $6 billion (from $19 billion to $12 billion) in the LTH realized cap, suggesting that long-term holders are likely taking profits or closing buying positions,” CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha noted, accompanied by an illustrative chart.
This chart displays the net change in the LTH realized cap, which is the sum price at which long-term holders’ coins last moved.
In contrast, short-term holders (STHs), who have held BTC for up to 155 days, are increasing their positions.
“Conversely, the STH realized cap has seen a recent sharp increase of $6 billion, moving from -$17 billion to -$11 billion, indicating that short-term holders are likely taking on more risk or increasing their buying positions,” Taha continued.
Additional analysis highlights close interaction between the realized price of BTC moving within one day to one week ago — the “hottest” part of the BTC supply — and the Bitcoin spot price.
At the time of writing, the one-day to one-week realized price was $62,080, nearly identical to spot BTC/USD.
Taha concluded, “These rejections could imply that momentum is weakening after these price attempts to stay above the realized price, potentially leading to short-term corrections.”
The strong United States September jobs report signals a possible slowdown in interest rate cuts but remains bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) as investors warm to riskier assets, Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, told Cointelegraph.
“Conversation about Fed rate cuts and debate about larger government deficits continue alongside solid economic growth, which should be net-positive for investors’ risk appetite and may reintroduce inflation risk in the medium term,” Pandl said.
“Grayscale Research expects Bitcoin to benefit in this risk-positive environment,” he explained.
The US economy gained approximately 254,000 jobs in September, far exceeding economists’ expectations of around 140,000 new jobs, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Spot BTC prices reached an intraday high of more than $62,300 on Oct. 4 following the stronger-than-expected jobs data.
Futures traders expect a standard 0.25% rate reduction following the Fed’s November policy meeting, according to CME Group.
On Sept. 18, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 0.5% after a slowdown in inflation and sluggish economic performance in August.
In August, the BLS reported job additions of less than 160,000 and annualized inflation rates of less than 3%.
Current futures market pricing reflects expectations of no more than a quarter of a percent interest rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in November, with rates currently targeted at around 4.75%.
The bullish jobs report and rate cut expectations contribute to the idea of an “Uptober,” or a fourth-quarter rally for Bitcoin.
Another possible driver is the continued decline in BTC held on centralized exchanges.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that there are over 2.8 million BTC on centralized exchanges, the lowest number since November 2018, which is 500,000 less than the amount seen in March.
Crypto markets have largely recovered from a sharp pullback on Aug. 5 that saw BTC prices plunge by around 18% in a single day.
Grayscale is the largest crypto asset manager, with over $20 billion in assets under management across its funds, according to the company.
An “ancient” Bitcoin whale that mined BTC during the first two months of the Bitcoin network’s existence has moved more BTC to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, according to a blockchain data firm.
“This Bitcoin was mined ONE MONTH after Bitcoin’s launch in Feb/March 2009,” Arkham Intelligence noted in an Oct. 4 post on X.
The mysterious Bitcoin whale transferred 10 Bitcoin, worth $610,000, in the latest transfer on Oct. 3. Since Sept. 24, they have moved a total of $3.58 million to Kraken. Before this activity, the wallet address had been dormant for a decade, as mentioned in an earlier post by Arkham:
“After moving several times from 2011-2014, his Bitcoin was then held dormant for almost 10 YEARS straight – during which it increased in value from $474K to over $80M.”
The wallet address “3JZsd…QerUW” currently holds 1,169 Bitcoin, valued at $72.4 million at today’s prices, according to Arkham data.
This news comes amid renewed speculation regarding the true identity of Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. HBO is set to release the documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery” on Oct. 8, which the producers claim will reveal Nakamoto’s identity.
Deceased American computer scientist Len Sassaman is considered a strong candidate to be named Nakamoto in the HBO documentary. Sassaman was a well-known cypherpunk who tragically took his own life on July 3, 2011, shortly after Nakamoto disclosed they had “moved on to other things.”
A memorial for Sassaman was encoded into Block 138,725 of the Bitcoin blockchain. While the exact connection between Sassaman and Bitcoin remains unclear, Cointelegraph discovered several 13-year-old X posts from him criticizing Bitcoin for its lack of “privacy” features and “fraud reversal protection.”
Back in 2021, Sassaman’s late wife, Meredith Patterson, stated, “to the best of my knowledge, Len was not Satoshi.”
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $61,815, up 1.5% over the last 24 hours but still 16% below its all-time high of $73,738 reached on March 14, according to CoinGecko data.
Bitcoin’s 6% decline since September 30 is being viewed as a prime opportunity for investors to acquire more BTC, according to Quinn Thompson, the chief investment officer at Lekker Capital.
In an Oct. 3 post on X, Thompson stated that purchasing Bitcoin within its current price range of $61,000 is a “no-brainer.” He emphasized that the “macro backdrop” affecting the crypto asset has significantly changed compared to previous price drops.
Thompson shared a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s price action from March 5 of this year, when BTC reached a new all-time high of $73,700.
He pointed out three previous instances where Bitcoin’s price plummeted, subsequently falling below its 200-day moving average—a key technical indicator that traders use to assess the mid-term strength of assets.
However, this time, BTC bounced back sharply from the technical level, which Thompson attributed to a “clear invalidation on the back of a 180-degree shift in the macro backdrop,” suggesting that prices may soon rise.
“I don’t usually give very short-term views, but seems like a no-brainer to be bidding this area,” he noted.
The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has rattled markets, causing risk assets like Bitcoin to sell off sharply following Iran’s military actions against Israel.
Concerns about the U.S. economy’s strength and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election have also put pressure on risk assets.
Despite this, mentions of “Uptober”—a term used to describe October’s historically bullish price action—have dropped significantly on social media as markets continue to retreat.
Echoing Thompson’s sentiment, other analysts believe that the current lack of optimism may present an opportunity for a short-term bounce.
“Uptober excitement wanes as the market dips, which does open the door for a rebound. Whether the bigger downtrend is over remains to be seen,” commented Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich.
Historically, October has been a strong month for returns, averaging over 20% gains in the last 11 years, with most of the gains occurring later in the month.
In early October 2023, Bitcoin fell 7% to $26,650 but surged nearly 30% in two weeks, closing the month at $34,500, leading traders to speculate about a sharp upward movement later this month.
Bitcoin may see relief from its recent downturn as United States demand stays high, according to analysis.
In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Oct. 3, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed the “possibility of a short-term BTC increase.”
Bitcoin’s price action has delivered several tests of $60,000 support this week amid market jitters over the situation in the Middle East.
Behind the scenes, however, demand is strong — as indicated by the popular Coinbase premium metric.
The Coinbase premium measures the difference in pricing between the BTC/USD pair on the largest US exchange, Coinbase, and Binance’s BTC/USDT equivalent.
Moving averages covering the size of the premium are, in turn, correlated with specific BTC price behavior, as shown by CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei_dent.
“We analyzed the Coinbase Premium Index on a 1-hour time frame to observe short-term momentum, utilizing the 24-hour (daily) and 168-hour (weekly) moving averages for added context,” he explained.
“Historically, when the daily moving average forms a golden cross by crossing above the weekly moving average with strong momentum, we observed significant price movements shortly after that.”
Such a “golden cross” scenario last occurred late last month, capturing Bitcoin’s move above $66,000.
Yonsei_dent added that “despite the price correction from $66k to approximately $61k around October 1st, the continued rise in demand from US-based investors suggests renewed upward pressure.”
He concluded: “This consistent demand, as reflected by the Coinbase Premium, could signal a potential short-term recovery in Bitcoin’s price.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Coinbase has seen a positive premium over the Binance return in recent weeks, an encouraging signal for BTC price performance.
Overall, exchanges continue to witness mass withdrawals as BTC/USD tests support, with the tally hitting its highest since the FTX meltdown in November 2022.
Analyzing the Coinbase Flow Pulse tool, which measures shifts into Coinbase from other trading platforms, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. reached similar conclusions on price outlook.
“The Bitcoin inflow to Coinbase from all exchanges remains in the green zone, indicating strong demand for coins in the US market,” he told X followers alongside a chart on Oct. 4.
“Despite the local pullback, the bullish trend persists.”
Bitcoin’s bull market cycle has accelerated, running 100 days ahead of its typical four-year cycle, according to a new report by CoinMarketCap (CMC).
Bitcoin (BTC) is potentially on the verge of breaking its traditional four-year cycle and entering a supercycle, CMC stated in its third-quarter market research report released on October 3.
According to CMC Research, several factors indicate Bitcoin’s potential entrance into a supercycle, driven by institutional adoption, BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and evolving market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is a crucial concept reflecting the cryptocurrency’s market dynamics. This cycle is closely tied to Bitcoin halving events, which cut BTC miner rewards approximately every four years or after 210,000 new BTC blocks are mined.
Bitcoin halvings typically have a significant impact on BTC prices, with bull markets historically peaking between 518 and 546 days after halving events.
According to CMC, Bitcoin’s price performance, along with the most recent BTC halving—which took place on April 20, 2024—suggests that a potential BTC all-time high could occur significantly earlier than typically expected.
Estimating Bitcoin’s current bull market progress at 40.66%, CMC noted:
“This time, Bitcoin is ahead by about 100 days, pointing to a potential peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025 […] Despite this early acceleration, there are signs of slowing infrastructure growth, which could indicate that broader market dynamics are evolving.”
Among the factors suggesting that BTC may be breaking its traditional four-year cycle, CMC highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional assets like gold and tech stocks, as well as growing institutional adoption from firms like MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific.
On October 2, Forbes published an article titled “Why Bitcoin is becoming a part of traditional finance,” further supporting the notion that BTC is gaining traction in the financial sector.
In the report, CMC also listed the top five active sectors in the crypto industry, with memecoins and Ethereum leading.
Despite a rally at the end of Q3, 16 sectors experienced at least 10% market cap losses, with declines reaching up to 40%. The storage, lending, and privacy sectors were the hardest hit, suffering losses of 39%, 37%, and 31%, respectively.
Additionally, the report noted that the United States continues to lead the global crypto user base with a 17% market share, followed by India with over 9%, and Brazil with 8%.
CMC highlighted that Bitcoin remained the most popular coin globally in Q3, with market shares ranging from 45% in Africa to 52% in Oceania.
Bitcoin still maintains a “bullish market structure” after another retest of the $60,000 support level, according to recent analysis.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital dismissed the “fearful” market sentiment surrounding the current price action of BTC, which is at $60,779.26, in one of his latest updates on X.
Rekt Capital emphasized that Bitcoin is familiar with the $60,000 mark as a fundamental psychological level, stating that returning to test it from above is no reason for concern.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has experienced a drop of approximately 6% over the past three days, having previously reached two-month highs above $66,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
“BTC has revisited the low $60,000s countless times over the past several months,” the X post noted.
“And yet people become equally fearful on a pullback and for a different reason every time. Same price. Different narrative. Never a loss in bullish market structure.”
Rekt Capital’s confident sentiment is echoed by fellow trader Jelle, who stated that BTC/USD is still undergoing a significant resistance/support (R/S) flip.
“A bit of red to start the quarter, and everyone is in full-on PTSD mode,” he remarked to his X followers.
“Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market structure is bullish again, and we’re turning key S/R back into support. Don’t get shaken out.”
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on bearish BTC price predictions that suggested a drop of up to 10% or more below $60,000 if that level gives way.
Entrepreneur and crypto enthusiast Mark Cullen joined the bearish camp on October 3, advising traders to prepare for a potential dip to around $57,000.
“It’s taking time, but Bitcoin still appears to be heading lower,” his X post concluded.
Analyzing on-chain data, Checkmate, the pseudonymous creator of data resource Checkonchain, assessed recent price performance in light of profit-taking by Bitcoin speculators.
This analysis utilized the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) metric, which examines the proportion of funds in profit when moved on-chain by speculators.
STH-SOPR has dipped below its center value of 1.0, potentially creating a viable “buy the dip” opportunity.
“If Bitcoin STH-SOPR is high… don’t buy, it means folks are taking profit and applying sell-side,” Checkmate stated.
“Conversely, in a bull market, dips back to 1.0, or preferably short sharp undercuts of it are opportunities to stack the cheapest sats.”
Bitcoin’s (BTC) chart structure continues to struggle to break into bullish territory, suggesting that a retest of its all-time high of $73,679 may take longer than many optimists hope, according to crypto analysts.
“Structure mid-term is bearish, moving to neutral and trying to get bullish. ATH will take time,” popular Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo expressed in an Oct. 2 post on X.
He noted that Bitcoin’s short-term structure indicates that the next one to three weeks might serve as a cooling-off period before “the next bullish attempt.”
“I don’t think we get Uptober, sideways Oct, and Nov-Dec for laser eye parties,” Woo stated, adding, “Long-term is bullish.”
At the time of publication, TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s price at $61,243, down 3.98% since Oct. 1.
The asset has experienced a decline of 4.72% over the past seven days.
This drop followed a significant missile strike by Iran, which reportedly targeted sites across Israel late on Oct. 1.
Israel’s air defenses intercepted most of the 180 incoming missiles, according to local reports.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell 8 points into “Fear” territory, scoring 42, after having been in “Greed” territory just a week prior.
Crypto trader Rekt Capital highlighted that while Bitcoin has dipped into the “low $60,000s” several times in 2024, “people become equally fearful on a pullback and for a different reason every time.”
Bitcoin’s nearly 4% pullback triggered the liquidation of approximately $128.49 million in long positions, according to the latest data.
This follows a remarkable 25% surge over 21 days, during which Bitcoin reached $66,331 on Sept. 27 before consolidating and retracing toward $60,000 in the subsequent four days.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt commented that the recent Bitcoin rally “did not disturb the 7-month sequence of lower highs and lower lows.”
“Only a close above $71,000 confirmed by a new ATH will indicate that the trend from the Nov 2022 low remains in force,” Brandt argues.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces the potential for a drop to $54,000 or lower as new geopolitical tensions impact BTC price strength.
Bitcoin traders are now setting sub-$60,000 price targets after BTC/USD experienced a more than 5% decline within 24 hours.
Market anxiety surrounding events in the Middle East has significantly affected the crypto market. Recent data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals that the total crypto market cap has fallen by 7.2% over the past two days.
Bitcoin reacted to the turmoil in typical fashion, approaching the $60,000 support level before reversing.
However, some traders believe that the worst is yet to come.
“Volume going up with price going down usually signifies a strong downtrend,” popular trader Roman warned in his latest analysis on X.
“More confluence for my idea that we will revisit the 55-57k area before a potential reversal. Regardless, I will be looking for long setups along the way.”
Such price levels have not been seen on BTC/USD in two weeks, but even lower targets are now under consideration.
Trader and analyst Toni Ghinea expressed concerns that Bitcoin may not only breach $60,000 but could also hit $54,000.
“I said $BTC will make the BULL TRAP above 58k,” he noted, predicting a “bearish” October ahead.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, expectations had leaned toward significant gains this month, as October usually sees an average BTC price increase of 23%.
Others have warned that any further geopolitical unrest could intensify pressures on risk assets.
In their latest bulletin, trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that crypto had been “hit much harder” than oil and equities.
“We seem to have found some support at the 60k level, but further escalation could push us much lower, possibly to the 55k level,” they forecasted.
“Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets. This minor setback shouldn’t distract from the bigger picture.”
Crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe also remains optimistic about the longer-term outlook.
In his recent X updates, he noted that the BTC price drop has reduced order book liquidity.
“I think we’re fairly close to the low, maybe have another sweep of the low at $60K and reverse from here,” he concluded.
After dropping 3.45% on Sept. 30, Bitcoin (BTC) missed out on a monthly bullish engulfing candle for the first time since January 2023, trading at $63,946.64.
Despite this setback, a year-long bull flag remains intact for Bitcoin, which will likely undergo a bullish breakout once BTC closes above the $68,000-$70,000 range on the monthly chart.
Bitcoin researcher Smithson With presented a new approach to predicting Bitcoin’s cycle top price using a quantile regression model.
In a post on X, With explained that quantile regression prioritizes all cumulative BTC data to present quantiles or percentiles. These can be used to study Bitcoin returns over time. The cumulative data includes factors such as supply, volatility, distribution over time, and survivability in various risk environments.
Unlike traditional linear regression, quantile regression provides deeper insight into potential outcomes by focusing on extremes, particularly the 99th percentile, according to the researcher.
With noted that the current projection simulates a 99th percentile power-law regression model, utilizing Bitcoin price data dating back to July 2013. He stated:
“You see that the model trajectory and Nov 1st, 2025 price prediction changes dramatically (performing the modelling in 2013 is bright pink, most recently is yellow) — but it clearly forms a quasi-exponential decay trend.”
A quasi-exponential decay trend indicates that the period of deviation from the actual trend has either halved or doubled over time.
In essence, With predicts that the cycle top will occur around November 2025, with a price target potentially as high as $275,000.
He also mentioned that this study could be refined by channeling deviations through a decay period and evaluating multiple percentiles. With expects further analysis to confirm a cycle top value between $250,000 and $300,000 in 2025.
Bitcoin has quickly recovered to $64,000 after falling to as low as $62,825 on Sept. 30.
Luckshury, lead at trading platform Exocharts, emphasized that Bitcoin’s uptrend will likely continue if key support at $63,200 holds. This price point serves as the point-of-control (POC) based on the recent uptrend formation, according to the trader.