The Trump administration is making significant moves in the digital asset space, with a strategic focus on acquiring Bitcoin through innovative financial approaches that avoid impacting taxpayers. Bo Hines, the executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, outlined these plans during a panel discussion at Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit 2025.
Bitcoin’s Status as a Commodity
A key aspect of the administration’s policy is the recognition of Bitcoin as a commodity rather than a security. Hines emphasized Bitcoin’s unique qualities, distinguishing it from other digital assets.
“Bitcoin, it’s not a security, it’s a commodity. It has intrinsic stored value, it’s traditionally accepted. It has, as David likes to describe, the immaculate conception. There’s no issuer,” Hines stated.
This stance aligns with the administration’s broader objective of fostering innovation while ensuring Bitcoin remains a crucial part of the country’s financial strategy.
Budget-Neutral Approach to Bitcoin Acquisition
One of the administration’s top priorities is acquiring Bitcoin without adding to the financial burden on taxpayers. Hines revealed that the strategy involves collaboration between the Crypto Council, the Treasury, and the Secretary of Commerce to identify viable acquisition methods.
When asked about the scale of their Bitcoin acquisition plans, Hines compared it to a country’s approach to gold reserves.
“That’s like asking a country, how much gold do you want? Right? I mean, as much as we can get,” he remarked.
Stopping Liquidation of Government-Seized Bitcoin
In addition to acquiring more Bitcoin, the administration is also taking steps to prevent further liquidation of government-seized digital assets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a known advocate for Bitcoin, discussed this issue in a recent interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, stating that the administration’s first priority is halting the sale of seized Bitcoin.
Bessent further elaborated that once this policy is in place, the government will explore additional methods to increase its Bitcoin holdings, signaling a long-term commitment to integrating the cryptocurrency into the national financial landscape.
Cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) have experienced a significant wave of selling, marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows. The past trading week saw an accelerated liquidation trend, with investors pulling $1.7 billion from the market. This follows the previous week’s outflows of $876 million, bringing the total five-week outflows to a staggering $6.4 billion, according to a report from CoinShares on March 17.
The ongoing sell-off has set a new record, marking the 17th consecutive day of outflows. This represents the longest continuous negative streak since CoinShares began tracking market flows in 2015. Despite this persistent selling pressure, year-to-date (YTD) inflows remain positive, totaling $912 million.
Bitcoin ETPs Bear the Brunt of Outflows
Bitcoin ETPs have been the most affected by the sell-off. The first week of March saw $756 million in outflows, which escalated to $978 million in the following trading week from March 10 to March 14. The cumulative five-week outflows for Bitcoin ETPs now stand at $5.4 billion, leaving only $612 million in YTD inflows by March 14.
Both Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) ETPs also saw notable sell-offs, recording outflows of $175 million and $2.2 million, respectively. However, in contrast to the broader trend, XRP ETPs continued to attract investment, with inflows totaling $1.8 million over the past week.
Regional Outflows and Key Issuers Affected
Among ETP providers, European crypto ETP firm 21Shares recorded the largest outflows last week, amounting to $534 million. While Europe saw substantial selling, the United States remained the dominant region for outflows, with investors withdrawing $1.2 billion from its crypto ETP market.
BlackRock, one of the largest crypto holders, experienced significant outflows as well. The investment giant saw $401 million leave its ETPs in the past week, pushing its month-to-date outflows to $594 million.
A Few Issuers Still Holding Inflows
Despite the broad market trend of liquidations, ProShares emerged as one of the few issuers maintaining inflows. The firm recorded $2 million in inflows month-to-date (MTD) and remained one of the three major issuers to hold positive YTD inflows as of March 14. Other issuers managing to retain positive YTD inflows include BlackRock and ARK Invest.
Additionally, Binance has seen a drastic reduction in its assets under management due to a seed investor exit, leaving it with only $15 million in assets, according to CoinShares’ James Butterfill.
A prominent Bitcoin whale has placed a significant bet on a short-term decline in Bitcoin’s price, opening a 40x leveraged short position valued at over $368 million. This high-stakes move comes just before a pivotal week filled with crucial economic reports that could heavily influence Bitcoin’s trajectory and overall investor sentiment.
The whale’s position involves 4,442 Bitcoin (BTC), with an entry price of $84,043. If Bitcoin’s price surpasses $85,592, the position faces liquidation. Leveraged trading like this, which uses borrowed funds to amplify both gains and losses, carries substantial risk, making it far more volatile than traditional investment approaches.
The Whale’s Current Gains and Losses
According to Hypurrscan data, the whale has accumulated over $2 million in unrealized profit so far. However, due to high funding fees associated with the position, the investor has also incurred losses exceeding $200,000.
Despite the risks, some traders have found success with similar leveraged strategies. Earlier this month, a trader capitalized on an 11% drop in Ether (ETH) and earned $68 million on a 50x leveraged short position. These examples illustrate how significant profits—and losses—can result from high-risk leverage-based bets in the crypto market.
Key Economic Events Could Shape Bitcoin’s Future
The timing of this short position is crucial, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on March 19. Investors are closely watching this event, as its outcomes could impact risk assets like Bitcoin. The macroeconomic backdrop remains uncertain, with concerns surrounding global trade tariffs adding further volatility to the market.
Bitcoin Needs Strong Weekly Close to Avoid Further Downside
Bitcoin’s price remains vulnerable to substantial downside movements ahead of the FOMC meeting. According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, Bitcoin must secure a weekly close above $81,000 to maintain its upward momentum.
“The key level to watch for the weekly close is $81,000 range, holding above that would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could invite more short-term selling pressure,” Lee stated.
Currently, market predictions suggest a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rates, based on the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. However, any unexpected hawkish stance from the Fed could lead to downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
As traders anticipate these macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin’s price action remains highly sensitive, with leveraged positions like the one taken by the whale playing a significant role in shaping short-term market movements.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain levels above $85,000 on March 14, even as the S&P 500 index recorded a 1.9% gain. The cryptocurrency has now spent over a week below the $90,000 mark, leading traders to speculate whether the bull market is losing steam and how long the selling pressure will persist.
Bitcoin Derivatives Indicate Market Resilience
Despite the 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,354 on January 20, Bitcoin’s derivatives market shows signs of resilience. The Bitcoin basis rate, which measures the premium of monthly contracts over spot markets, initially signaled bearish sentiment on March 13 but has since rebounded to healthier levels.
Typically, traders expect an annualized premium of 5% to 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. While the current basis rate sits at 5%—lower than the 8% recorded two weeks ago—it remains within neutral territory, indicating stable demand from leveraged buyers.
Correlation with Traditional Markets Challenges Bitcoin’s Independence
Bitcoin’s price movements have closely mirrored the S&P 500, raising concerns about its role as a non-correlated asset. If Bitcoin continues to track traditional financial markets, its price could remain under pressure due to ongoing fears of an economic recession.
However, central banks are expected to introduce stimulus measures to prevent a downturn. If such measures take effect, scarce assets like Bitcoin could benefit significantly.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently less than a 40% probability that U.S. interest rates will drop below 3.75% by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. If the S&P 500 recovers some of its recent 10% losses, Bitcoin could regain the $90,000 level. On the other hand, prolonged risk aversion among investors may lead to continued underperformance.
Bitcoin Derivatives and Margin Markets Show No Signs of Stress
Market sentiment among professional traders appears stable, as evidenced by the 25% delta skew metric for Bitcoin options. This metric, which reflects the demand for put (sell) options relative to call (buy) options, remains within a neutral range. Typically, a bearish market would see this metric rise to a 6% premium, but there are currently no strong signals of such a scenario.
Further analysis of margin markets at OKX reveals that the Bitcoin long-to-short ratio stands at 18:1. Historically, levels exceeding 40:1 indicate excessive confidence, while a ratio below 5:1 suggests bearish sentiment. The current balance mirrors market conditions from January 30, when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000.
Given the lack of stress in Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets, combined with strong investor resilience, Bitcoin is expected to reclaim the $90,000 mark in the coming weeks, provided that recession risks subside.
Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a narrow range since March 9, unable to break past the $84,000 resistance level. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp shows BTC trading between $78,599 and $84,000, reflecting broader market uncertainty.
Factors Contributing to Bitcoin’s Stagnation
Economic and Political Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s lack of momentum is tied to macroeconomic factors, including concerns over inflation and geopolitical instability. Policies from the Trump administration, including proposed trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada, have rattled markets. Investors remain cautious about risk assets like Bitcoin, leading to weakening demand.
Weakening Demand and Neutral Funding Rates
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s post-election rally has lost steam, reflecting a hesitant market. Short-term holders’ cost basis exceeded that of longer-term holders in Q1, indicating reduced demand. As BTC dropped below $95,000, capital outflows accelerated, reinforcing a shift from post-all-time-high optimism to a more cautious outlook.
Glassnode reported: “This reversal indicates that macro uncertainty has spooked demand, reducing new inflows… and suggests that new buyers are now hesitant to absorb sell-side pressure.”
Perpetual futures funding rates, a measure of speculative interest, are hovering close to 0%, signaling increased indecisiveness among traders.
Key Resistance Levels
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim key technical levels. On March 9, BTC fell below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,736, which has acted as a resistance barrier since. Analysts suggest that a decisive move above this level and the 200-day EMA at $86,000 is necessary to confirm renewed bullish momentum.
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades emphasized the importance of these indicators: “The 200-day SMA and EMA are crucial for determining the mid-to-long-term trend. Failure to reclaim these levels could lead to extended consolidation.”
For now, Bitcoin remains stuck in a tight range, awaiting the next major catalyst to determine its direction.
Bitcoin saw a sharp sell-off on March 12 following the latest U.S. inflation data. After reaching a three-day high of $84,437, BTC/USD quickly reversed course as bearish pressure emerged.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January came in below expectations at 2.8%, signaling a slowdown in inflation. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 3.1%—also lower than expected.
“This marks the first decline in both Headline and Core CPI since July 2024. Inflation is cooling down in the US,” noted The Kobeissi Letter, a trading analysis firm.
Despite this seemingly positive data, Wall Street’s opening saw renewed selling pressure across the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin fell to $82,400 before stabilizing around its daily opening price.
Technical Indicators and Market Trends
Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin has started to exit a previously filled CME Gap—an important price zone linked to Bitcoin futures trading on CME Group. “Any dips into the top of the CME Gap would constitute a post-breakout retest attempt to fully confirm the exit from this CME Gap. Initial signs of that retest occurring already,” he explained.
Other analysts focused on key technical indicators such as the 200-day Simple and Exponential Moving Averages (SMA/EMA), which serve as crucial support levels in bull markets.
“Bulls got work to do here to get back above the Daily 200MA/EMA. Last year we had the same thing and price chopped around these levels for 3+ months,” noted trader Daan Crypto Trades. Currently, these levels sit at $83,550 and $85,650, respectively.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Indicate Institutional Caution
On the macroeconomic front, trading firm QCP Capital suggested that the CPI data could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates.
“With inflation concerns lingering and macro risks mounting, the CPI print will be a key determinant of whether the disinflationary trend will hold, or volatility intensifies in the near term,” QCP stated in its latest market update.
Institutional investors are also showing signs of caution. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant net outflow of $153.87 million, largely driven by Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). GBTC offloaded 641 BTC worth $56.45 million, bringing its total holdings down to 195,746 BTC, valued at approximately $17.24 billion.
“This signals growing caution among institutional investors,” QCP concluded.
Looking Ahead: Market Uncertainty Persists
With inflation concerns still present and institutional investors adopting a more cautious approach, Bitcoin’s short-term price action remains uncertain. However, key support levels around $82,000 appear to be holding for now.
As traders and investors navigate these developments, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions and how they might impact broader market sentiment.
Bitcoin recently dropped to a four-month low of $76,700, raising concerns about whether the market has entered a bearish phase. However, several indicators suggest that this correction may have already reached its lowest point.
1. Historical Comparisons to Previous Market Cycles
Some fear that Bitcoin is entering a bear market similar to past cycles. However, the current price behavior differs from the major crash in late 2021, when Bitcoin fell 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days. A similar drop today would suggest a decline to $64,400 by the end of March.
Looking at past corrections, the recent pullback closely mirrors a previous 31.5% drop from $71,940 to $49,220, which occurred over a similar timeframe. This historical context suggests that Bitcoin’s recent decline is not necessarily the start of a prolonged bear market.
2. The U.S. Dollar’s Weakening Trend
One major factor influencing Bitcoin’s price is its inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar. During the 2021 bear market, the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, creating a challenging environment for Bitcoin. This time, however, the U.S. dollar index has been declining, which historically supports Bitcoin’s price stability.
A weakening dollar often drives investors toward alternative assets, including Bitcoin. If this trend continues, it could provide additional support for Bitcoin’s price and help confirm that the recent low is the bottom of the correction.
3. Stability in Bitcoin Derivatives Markets
Another key indicator pointing to market stability is Bitcoin’s derivatives market. The annualized premium on Bitcoin futures remains at around 4.5%, even after the recent 19% price drop. This suggests that traders are not panicking and that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains steady.
For comparison, during a previous sharp market crash, Bitcoin’s futures premium dropped below 0%, signaling extreme fear and excessive selling. The fact that this has not happened in the current downturn suggests that the correction may have already run its course.
Additionally, the funding rate for perpetual futures remains balanced, indicating that there is no significant dominance of either long or short positions. This neutral positioning suggests that traders are not expecting further drastic declines.
4. Market Reaction to Economic Uncertainty
Traders are also closely watching economic developments, particularly concerns over government fiscal policies. If policymakers fail to reach agreements on key financial decisions, uncertainty could create volatility in traditional markets, leading investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Historically, economic uncertainty has led to increased interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against financial instability. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin’s price could stabilize and recover from its recent correction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent drop to $76,700 may seem alarming, but multiple indicators suggest that the market has already found its bottom. Historical comparisons, the weakening U.S. dollar, stability in the derivatives market, and broader economic factors all point to a potential price recovery. While short-term fluctuations may continue, the overall outlook remains positive, with Bitcoin likely to resume its upward trend in the coming months.
Bitcoin has recently seen a notable pullback, dropping more than 14% over the past week to around $80,700. This downturn has raised concerns among investors about whether the bull market is coming to an end. However, several analysts suggest that this retracement is simply a normal correction within a broader uptrend.
Market Reaction and Key Factors Behind the Drop
The latest decline in Bitcoin’s price has coincided with growing uncertainty in global financial markets. A recent executive order, which was initially perceived as positive for cryptocurrency adoption, ended up disappointing investors. The order suggested using confiscated cryptocurrencies to create a Bitcoin reserve but did not include direct federal investment in Bitcoin. This led to a negative reaction in the market.
Some analysts see this drop as part of a larger macroeconomic correction, with global markets adjusting to changing fiscal policies, tariff uncertainties, and recession fears. The decline has broken key support levels across various cryptocurrencies, making future price movements difficult to predict. However, analysts remain focused on Bitcoin’s next critical level, estimated to be around $71,000 to $72,000.
Historical Perspective on Bitcoin Corrections
One prominent industry figure has pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price behavior is still in line with historical bull markets. A 36% correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $110,000 would place it around $70,000, which remains a normal level for a bull market retracement.
Corrections of this magnitude have occurred multiple times in previous cycles without signaling the end of a bull market. Given the scale of Bitcoin’s price appreciation over the past year, a temporary pullback is considered healthy rather than alarming.
The Role of Central Bank Policies
Another important factor influencing Bitcoin’s price is global monetary policy. Some expect central banks, including the Federal Reserve and others, to implement liquidity-boosting measures in response to economic conditions. Historically, when central banks have engaged in monetary easing, Bitcoin has benefitted significantly.
During a previous period of quantitative easing, Bitcoin’s price surged over 1,000%, demonstrating how monetary expansion can drive demand for digital assets. If a similar approach is taken by central banks in response to economic challenges, Bitcoin could see renewed upward momentum.
Market Outlook and Long-Term Predictions
Despite the current downturn, long-term price targets for Bitcoin remain optimistic. Analysts continue to project potential highs of $160,000 to $180,000 by the end of 2025. These forecasts are based on increasing institutional adoption, expanding Bitcoin ETF offerings, and growing retail interest.
Bitcoin’s price cycles have historically included significant corrections before reaching new all-time highs. The current pullback does not necessarily indicate a reversal of the overall bullish trend but rather a period of consolidation before further gains.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s recent decline to around $80,000 has caused concern, many experts view this as a routine correction within an ongoing bull market. Historical patterns, potential monetary policy shifts, and continued institutional interest suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term growth remains intact. Investors are advised to focus on the broader trend rather than short-term fluctuations.
Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, has announced plans to offer 24/7 trading for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) futures to U.S. residents. This strategic move aims to expand the exchange’s derivatives offerings and position Coinbase competitively within the U.S. crypto market.
Addressing Market Inefficiencies
The current crypto derivatives market predominantly operates outside U.S. borders, compelling American traders to navigate fixed trading hours and contracts with set expirations. These constraints can lead to inefficiencies and limit market participation. By introducing around-the-clock trading and perpetual futures with extended expirations, Coinbase seeks to mitigate these challenges and provide U.S. traders with more flexibility.
Understanding Perpetual Futures
Futures contracts are derivatives that obligate the purchase or sale of an asset at a predetermined price and date. Perpetual futures, however, lack a specified expiration date, allowing traders to hold positions indefinitely. This feature offers continuous exposure to the underlying asset without the need to roll over contracts, making it a popular instrument among crypto traders.
Navigating Regulatory Landscapes
The regulatory environment surrounding crypto perpetual futures in the U.S. has been marked by uncertainty, leading many exchanges to restrict access for U.S. residents. Coinbase is proactively collaborating with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ensure its new offerings comply with regulatory standards. The CFTC oversees commodity futures trading to maintain market integrity and protect participants.
Competitive Landscape
Coinbase’s entry into the 24/7 futures trading arena positions it against established entities such as the CME Group and emerging competitors like Robinhood.
- CME Group: As a prominent U.S. derivatives exchange, CME Group reported $6.1 billion in revenue in 2024. In the last quarter of 2024, it recorded an average daily trading volume of $10 billion for crypto derivatives. However, CME’s crypto derivatives are available for trading only six days a week, presenting a potential advantage for Coinbase’s continuous trading model.
- Robinhood: In January, Robinhood announced plans to offer Bitcoin and Ether futures, signaling its intent to diversify its crypto offerings. Coinbase’s established presence and comprehensive services may provide a competitive edge in attracting a broader user base.
Market Potential
The crypto derivatives market has experienced substantial growth, reaching a monthly trading volume of $1.3 trillion in September 2023. This figure surpasses the spot crypto market, indicating a robust demand for derivatives products. By introducing 24/7 futures trading, Coinbase aims to capture a significant share of this burgeoning market and cater to the evolving needs of U.S. traders.
Conclusion
Coinbase’s initiative to launch 24/7 Bitcoin and Ether futures trading represents a pivotal development in the U.S. cryptocurrency landscape. By addressing existing market inefficiencies and navigating regulatory complexities, Coinbase is poised to enhance its service offerings and strengthen its position in the competitive crypto derivatives market.
The cryptocurrency industry is advocating for comprehensive regulatory clarity, emphasizing that clear policies are more crucial than the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve. Industry executives express that while the creation of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve aligns with President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, it falls short of addressing the pressing need for detailed guidance on securities regulation and taxation.
The Executive Order and Industry Response
On March 6, President Trump signed an executive order to establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, fulfilling a campaign promise to bolster the nation’s crypto holdings. This reserve, along with a separate digital asset stockpile for altcoins, is intended to position the United States as a leader in the cryptocurrency space. However, industry leaders remain underwhelmed, citing a lack of immediate action and specificity in the order.
Max Giammario, CEO of Web3 artificial intelligence startup Kindred, commented on the situation, stating, “Markets expect a roadmap for innovation and clear guidelines on stablecoins, institutional adoption, and taxation. Instead, the vague rhetoric and lack of immediate action only deepened uncertainty.”
Market Reaction and Current Challenges
Following the executive order, the cryptocurrency market experienced notable fluctuations. Bitcoin’s value declined by approximately 13% since March 6, reflecting traders’ disappointment and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Altcoins mirrored this trend, contributing to a loss of over $400 million in total crypto market capitalization.
Alvin Kan, Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet, highlighted the potential consequences of continued ambiguity: “If Trump’s administration provides clearer regulations on stablecoins, ETFs, and institutional adoption, altcoins could regain momentum. Otherwise, Bitcoin dominance may continue, as it remains the primary macro asset.”
The Call for Regulatory Framework
The consensus among industry executives is that establishing a clear regulatory framework is paramount for the growth and stability of the cryptocurrency sector. Specific areas requiring attention include:
- Stablecoin Regulation: Defining the legal status and operational guidelines for stablecoins to ensure transparency and consumer protection.
- Institutional Adoption: Creating policies that encourage institutional participation in the crypto market, thereby enhancing liquidity and market maturity.
- Taxation Policies: Clarifying tax obligations related to cryptocurrency transactions to eliminate uncertainties for investors and businesses.
Theodore Agranat, Director of Web3 at Gunzilla Games, expressed optimism about future developments: “Given the people in all the crucial positions, we should expect to see a stream of ongoing and positive initiatives and news for crypto in general and especially crypto projects in the US.”
Conclusion
While the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve signifies a positive shift in governmental recognition of cryptocurrencies, the industry’s growth hinges on comprehensive and clear regulatory policies. Addressing these foundational issues is essential for fostering innovation, protecting consumers, and solidifying the United States’ position as a leader in the global cryptocurrency landscape.