Bitcoin speculators have been shifting away from short-term holdings, with data indicating that over 21,000 BTC have been moved from these accounts in the past month, according to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant. This movement is nearing record levels of net distribution for Bitcoin, as highlighted in a CryptoQuant Quicktake blog post on September 9.
The analysis pointed out a significant shift in Bitcoin ownership dynamics, where short-term holders (STHs), defined as those who have held their Bitcoin for 155 days or less, have reduced their positions by 21,600 BTC in the 30 days leading up to September 8. This is the largest decrease observed since mid-2021. IT Tech, a contributor at CryptoQuant, noted, “The last two weeks show a significant decline in STH net positions, indicating that short-term investors are selling their holdings in response to recent market volatility.”
Conversely, long-term holders (LTHs) are on an accumulation spree, with their net positions increasing by 22,000 BTC in the same period. This marks the largest accumulation phase in several years for LTHs, effectively balancing the scale of the STH sell-off. This dynamic suggests a shift of Bitcoin from “weak hands” to “strong hands,” potentially leading to market stabilization.
IT Tech further explained the implications of these shifts, stating, “Increased accumulation by LTH could lead to price stabilization and position the market for a potential rebound, while STH sell-offs may create short-term downward pressure on BTC prices.” The analyst also emphasized, “The data shows a clear capital flow from weak hands (STH) to strong hands (LTH), signaling a market stability.”
This transition comes at a time when STHs now hold just under 18% of the available Bitcoin supply, reflecting a trend where long-term support during bull markets frequently becomes a key metric for market stability. This shift in Bitcoin’s ownership could have important implications for its price stability and future market trends.
In a notable shift within the cryptocurrency market, the 11 United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net outflows of $1.2 billion over just eight days, marking their longest run of withdrawals since their inception. According to Bloomberg, between August 30 and September 6, investors pulled approximately $1.2 billion from these ETFs, which first launched on January 10.
This wave of outflows coincided with a significant downturn in Bitcoin prices, which saw a decrease from a high of $64,668 on August 26 to a low of $53,491 by September 7—a sharp 17.28% drop within two weeks. Analysts note that September historically records weaker performance for Bitcoin, often referred to colloquially as “Rektember” due to typically poor returns during the month. However, the term “Uptober” follows, suggesting a potential recovery in October.
Despite the recent market challenges, Bitcoin remains a focal point of interest. Financial advisor Suze Orman expressed a positive outlook on Bitcoin’s future in a CNBC interview, emphasizing the role of younger generations in driving its value. “As younger people make more money, BTC will be one of their investments of choice, and that will cause the asset’s price to go up,” Orman stated, indicating a bullish long-term perspective.
Meanwhile, despite recent outflows, cryptocurrencies continue to dominate new financial products. In 2024, crypto-based ETFs led the way among the 400 new ETFs launched, with the four largest being spot Bitcoin ETFs. These include notable offerings from BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK 21Shares, and Bitwise.
Further emphasizing the trend, out of the top 25 ETF launches by inflows, 13 were related to crypto, with 10 focusing on Bitcoin and three on Ethereum. Notably, the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF became the seventh-largest ETF launch in 2024, surpassing the $1 billion mark in August, underscoring the growing investor interest in both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
A Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) subsidiary, Agile Energy X, is making strides in the Bitcoin mining industry by utilizing wasted solar energy, an initiative that could boost the use of green energy. According to a report by Asahi Shimbun on September 8, Agile Energy X has begun testing Bitcoin mining operations powered by excess solar energy that would otherwise go unused due to Japan’s “output control” practices. These practices involve intentionally reducing energy production to manage supply and demand or to address transmission limitations.
Kenji Tateiwa, President of Agile Energy X, explained the potential impact of this initiative: “It would prompt more green energy to be introduced,” emphasizing the benefit of converting wasted renewable energy into a profitable venture. The subsidiary has set up mining rigs near solar farms in Gunma and Tochigi prefectures to capitalize on this excess energy.
In 2023, Japan saw about 1,920 gigawatt-hours of power curtailed, equivalent to the yearly consumption of approximately 450,000 households. Agile Energy’s simulations suggest that if renewables were to account for half of Japan’s energy, about 240,000 gigawatt-hours could be lost annually due to curtailment. The company estimates that using just 10% of this surplus for Bitcoin mining could potentially generate about 360 billion Japanese yen ($2.5 billion) in Bitcoin annually.
Tateiwa envisions that the profits from Bitcoin mining could significantly contribute to corporate earnings, thereby encouraging further adoption of green energy technologies. “Maybe US utilities should wake up and smell the roses,” commented Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, highlighting the innovative approach taken by Japan compared to other regions. Daniel Batten, an advocate for environmental, social, and governance practices, also praised Japan’s proactive research into utilizing Bitcoin mining to support renewable energy efforts.
This method mirrors similar strategies employed by crypto mining firms in the United States, especially in Texas, where renewable energy is increasingly being used for grid balancing and enhancing the viability of green power sources.
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, recently closed his short position on Bitcoin after initially predicting a sharp downturn below the $50,000 level. On September 6, Hayes expressed concerns that Bitcoin could face a significant correction, leading him to take a short position to potentially profit from the expected drop.
However, by September 8, Hayes had reversed his stance, announcing the closure of his short position with a modest 3% profit. In a post on X, he explained his rationale for exiting the position and hinted at a potential upcoming rally for Bitcoin: “Closed my $BTC short, made 3% profit… With Bad Gurl Yellen watching markets and releasing a weekend statement, if stuff continues to puke next week BTC MIGHT rise anticipating more USD liquidity.”
Hayes suggests that the Federal Reserve may soon inject more liquidity into the U.S. economy, which could drive Bitcoin prices higher. This potential for increased dollar liquidity comes as Hayes observes weakness across the economy and financial markets, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to act in order to stabilize conditions.
Moreover, Hayes speculated in a subsequent X post on September 7 that further downturns in traditional markets might lead to aggressive monetary intervention. “Bad Gurl Yellen is watching, if markets go down more she will definitely pump up the jam by printing more money,” he noted, indicating that such measures could positively impact Bitcoin prices by increasing investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
This shift in strategy from Hayes highlights the dynamic and speculative nature of cryptocurrency trading, where market sentiment can quickly change based on macroeconomic indicators and regulatory actions.
Riot Platforms, a prominent Bitcoin (BTC) mining company, has disclosed that its holdings now surpass 10,000 Bitcoin, marking a 37% increase from the previous year. Despite this growth, the company experienced a 13% reduction in Bitcoin production in August 2024 compared to July, reflecting wider challenges within the industry.
Bitcoin mining firms have faced profitability issues following the Bitcoin network’s halving event in April, which reduced the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per 210,000 blocks. This, coupled with rising energy costs, has pushed miners to consider diversifying their operations into more energy-intensive sectors like data centers and artificial intelligence, despite higher operational costs.
In August, Riot produced 322 Bitcoin, down from 370 in July and slightly lower than the 333 Bitcoin mined in August 2023. Notably, unlike last August when the company sold 300 Bitcoin generating $8.6 million, no Bitcoin sales occurred this August. “August is historically the hottest month of the year in Texas, resulting in some of the highest periods of demand on the ERCOT grid,” stated Jason Les, CEO of Riot.
Focusing on energy optimization, Les noted that Riot had managed to reduce its power costs by making more power available to the grid during peak demand periods. This strategy resulted in the generation of power credits in August, leading to an all-in power cost at its Rockdale, Texas facility of $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Meanwhile, the Corsicana facility, which buys energy at real-time spot prices, reported a cost of $39/MWh for the same period.
Additionally, Riot’s operating hashrate in August was 14.5 exahashes per second (EH/s), down 7% from July’s 15.5 EH/s. Despite the monthly decrease, this figure represents a significant 224% increase from August 2023, underlining the enhanced computational power required for securing and processing transactions on the blockchain.
Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3, has dismissed concerns from some traders predicting that Bitcoin will fall to $40,000, attributing these predictions to fear rather than solid market fundamentals. In a recent post on X, Mow argued against the bearish outlook stating, “Bears saying Bitcoin will drop to $0.04M have no basis for that prediction other than self induced fear.”
Despite Bitcoin’s recent struggles, remaining under $60,000 for the past week and currently trading at $53,824 according to CoinMarketCap, Mow remains optimistic about its potential to surge to $100,000. He cites several macroeconomic factors supporting a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, including the substantial daily interest the U.S. government accrues on its debt, which has notably increased over time. “Bitcoin can just as easily go to $0.1M and that is supported by brrrr, +$3B in debt per day, strategic Bitcoin reserves, pensions allocating, and corporations buying,” Mow explained.
Supporting this viewpoint, The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the escalating U.S. debt interest expenses, noting, “The $3 billion daily interest expense for the US government on its debt is TRIPLE the amount paid 10 years ago and has DOUBLED in just 2.5 years.” The publication described the situation as an understatement of a debt crisis.
Mow further argues that the influence of fear on market prices is generally short-lived, as fundamental values tend to prevail over time. “Can fear move the market? Sure. But it never lasts long because the fundamentals win out over time. Even the unwinding of some of the greatest frauds like FTX can’t keep price down,” he asserted.
Amidst this debate, the broader sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registering an “Extreme Fear” score of 23. Adding to the wary outlook, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently expressed his bearish stance, saying, “BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.”
Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering around $54,168, showing a tentative recovery of 10% from its eight-month low of $49,577, reached on August 5. However, the mood among traders remains cautious with concerns that the price might drop below $52,000 before any significant recovery is observed.
On September 6, Bitcoin saw a notable decline, dropping 5.9% from a high of $56,984 to a low of $53,613 during the day. This downturn has led analysts to keep a close eye on the $52,000 mark, which is considered a critical support level.
Popular trader Jelle highlighted the precarious position of Bitcoin following disappointing U.S. jobs data, which added to the bearish sentiment in the market. “#Bitcoin pushing deeper toward the lows at $52,000,” Jelle remarked on the social platform X. He pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen below important support levels, including the significant psychological barrier at $58,000, coinciding with the 200-day simple moving average.
Jelle emphasized the importance of bulls defending the $52,000 threshold, corresponding to the July 5 low, to prevent further declines. “Rektember out in full force,” he commented, underscoring the tough market conditions this September.
In another analysis, Daan Crypto Trades explored two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory based on Fibonacci retracement levels. One scenario suggested a bounce from the 61.8% retracement level at $54,604, while the other foresaw a possible breakdown below the $54,000 support, identifying $52,400—aligned with the 78.6% retracement level—as a crucial entry point for bullish traders.
Michael van de Poppe of MN Consultancy added that Bitcoin might test the support zone between $53,000 and $54,000 before potentially surging upwards. For this rebound to materialize, he noted that reclaiming the $56,000 level quickly is essential.
Amid these market movements, pseudonymous analyst Kyledoops shared insights from a CryptoQuant chart, indicating a decline in the percentage of Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) in profit since mid-July. “The percentage of Bitcoin UTXOs in profit has fallen to 68.5%, the lowest level since October 2023,” he reported, highlighting ongoing profit-taking activities among investors.
Riot Platforms, a prominent Bitcoin (BTC) mining company, has disclosed that its holdings now surpass 10,000 Bitcoin, marking a 37% increase from the previous year. Despite this growth, the company experienced a 13% reduction in Bitcoin production in August 2024 compared to July, reflecting wider challenges within the industry.
Bitcoin mining firms have faced profitability issues following the Bitcoin network’s halving event in April, which reduced the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per 210,000 blocks. This, coupled with rising energy costs, has pushed miners to consider diversifying their operations into more energy-intensive sectors like data centers and artificial intelligence, despite higher operational costs.
In August, Riot produced 322 Bitcoin, down from 370 in July and slightly lower than the 333 Bitcoin mined in August 2023. Notably, unlike last August when the company sold 300 Bitcoin generating $8.6 million, no Bitcoin sales occurred this August. “August is historically the hottest month of the year in Texas, resulting in some of the highest periods of demand on the ERCOT grid,” stated Jason Les, CEO of Riot.
Focusing on energy optimization, Les noted that Riot had managed to reduce its power costs by making more power available to the grid during peak demand periods. This strategy resulted in the generation of power credits in August, leading to an all-in power cost at its Rockdale, Texas facility of $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Meanwhile, the Corsicana facility, which buys energy at real-time spot prices, reported a cost of $39/MWh for the same period.
Additionally, Riot’s operating hashrate in August was 14.5 exahashes per second (EH/s), down 7% from July’s 15.5 EH/s. Despite the monthly decrease, this figure represents a significant 224% increase from August 2023, underlining the enhanced computational power required for securing and processing transactions on the blockchain.
A much-anticipated interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve may not be the boon for Bitcoin many expect, according to analysts. Contrary to popular belief, such a move could drive Bitcoin’s price significantly lower, potentially to its lowest since February.
Analysts from Bitfinex have voiced concerns, stating, “If we were to speculate, we would caution to expect a 15-20 percent decline when rates are cut this month, with a bottom of $40-50k for BTC.” They highlighted that September traditionally brings volatility to Bitcoin’s value, and with the upcoming Fed decision, this could intensify market fluctuations.
The note from Bitfinex pointed out that any changes in macroeconomic conditions could quickly invalidate their predictions, adding to the uncertainty traders currently face. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision is due on September 18, buoyed by expectations of a cut following dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in August, who noted that “the time has come.”
Bitcoin’s appeal often increases when interest rates drop, as traditional investment options like bonds offer lower returns. However, Bitcoin was trading down at $57,754, having lost 2.67% in value over the last week, according to CoinMarketCap.
A potential 20% decrease from its current price could see Bitcoin falling to around $46,000, a price last seen on February 8. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggests that reaching this price level could be critical for kickstarting the next bull market. Thielen recommends targeting the low $40,000s to optimally enter the next bull cycle.
Further insights from the crypto community include a note from Joe Consorti, an analyst at The Bitcoin Layer, on a social media platform X: “$60,000 is no longer a blow-off top level dominated by speculators, it is a consolidation zone where long-term, mature holders accumulate and HODL.”
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades also commented on Bitcoin’s stability, noting it is “still fighting around its Bull Market Support Band,” indicating a reluctance to deviate significantly in either direction.
Scottish prosecutors have successfully seized and converted 23.5 Bitcoin into cash from a 2020 robbery involving three men armed with a machete and a Toblerone chocolate bar, near Glasgow. This marked the first instance of cryptocurrency being traced and seized in a Scottish robbery, highlighting a notable use of proceeds of crime legislation.
Detective Inspector Craig Potter from Police Scotland’s Cyber Investigations unit described the case as “the first robbery in Scotland to involve tracing stolen cryptocurrency.” During the March 2020 home invasion in Blantyre, southeast of Glasgow, one of the robbers attacked a woman with a personalized Toblerone bar, using it to beat her and eventually making a “throat-slitting gesture” with the bloodied chocolate before fleeing with his accomplices. The victim, who remains unnamed for legal reasons, reported waking to find another assailant threatening him with a machete, compelling him to transfer Bitcoin.
BBC News reported on Sept. 2 that this was also the first time Scottish prosecutors utilized legislation to convert stolen Bitcoin into cash. Lawyers at Edinburgh’s High Court finalized the conversion on Sept. 3, totaling $144,017 (109,601 British pounds), which represents approximately 10% of the current value of 23.5 BTC but corresponds to the cryptocurrency’s value at the time of the robbery when Bitcoin was trading around $5,400.
The seized Bitcoin belonged to John Ross Rennie, who was found guilty of possessing the stolen Bitcoin in November. Despite his claims of innocence, asserting that a “scary” relative coerced him into depositing the Bitcoin into an exchange account, the court recognized Rennie as the “technical brains” behind the operation. Edinburgh High Court judge Lord Scott noted Rennie’s critical role in facilitating the Bitcoin transfer and sentenced him to 150 hours of unpaid work and a six-month supervision order.