A JPMorgan analyst reported on March 15 that Bitcoin has overtaken gold in investor portfolios, considering volatility adjustments, with Bitcoin’s allocation now 3.7 times that of gold.
This change is underscored by a $9 billion net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, which offsets outflows from Grayscale.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a managing director at JPMorgan, shared in a recent X post that Bitcoin’s adjusted allocation exceeds gold by a significant margin.
He noted that since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, over $10 billion has flowed into these funds. Panigirtzoglou suggested that the potential market size for BTC ETFs could reach $62 billion, using gold as a reference point.
Further, JPM Securities anticipates the spot Bitcoin ETF market could expand to $220 billion in the next two to three years, significantly impacting Bitcoin’s price due to increased capital inflows.
This optimism follows a nearly 40% increase in the crypto market’s total capitalization to $2.2 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing 45% and 47% increases, respectively.
The growth has also benefitted altcoins, the DeFi sector, and NFTs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net sales soar to $6.1 billion in February from $1.5 billion in January.
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During the same period, Bitcoin’s price spiked by 31%, reaching an all-time high of over $73,800.
This surge coincided with inflows into spot BTC ETFs, with crypto mining stocks also hitting new highs.
JPMorgan analysts noted that only 7% of the $3.3 trillion invested in gold is held in funds, with the remainder in physical forms.
By applying a volatility ratio of 3.7, they project the spot BTC ETF market could potentially reach $62 billion in the next few years, indicating a shift from other investments to ETFs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $19 billion in cumulative inflows since their inception, excluding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
With a $10 billion outflow from GBTC, the net inflows stand at $9 billion. February saw spot BTC ETF net sales jump to $6.1 billion, with the largest daily inflows exceeding $1 billion on March 12.
As the Bitcoin halving approaches, the market anticipates increased demand and a potential supply crisis. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, predicts this event will fuel demand further.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a turnaround for Bitcoin, pushing its price beyond previous highs and encouraging institutional adoption, notably by BlackRock.
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Bitcoin is on the cusp of entering a critical phase known as the “danger zone” just days before its next halving, an event that could see its value dip, as historically observed.
This period, highlighted by crypto analyst Rekt Capital in a recent X post, has in the past witnessed significant price retractions.
“In 2 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the ‘Danger Zone’ […] where historical pre-halving retraces have begun,” stated Rekt Capital.
“Historical data supports this claim, with Bitcoin experiencing a 40% fall in 2016 and a 20% drop in 2020 during the 14 to 28 days leading up to its halving events.
“Earlier in January, Rekt Capital had foreseen a rally and subsequent retrace surrounding the halving.
This prediction held true as Bitcoin outperformed expectations, surpassing its previous all-time high of $68,990 in March, ahead of a halving for the first time.
With the next halving anticipated on April 20, as per CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s value has slightly retreated from its March 14 peak, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro.
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Amidst these fluctuations, Binance CEO Richard Teng remains optimistic.
Speaking at a Bangkok event, Teng projected Bitcoin could exceed $80,000 by year-end, fueled by institutional investments and the impact of new U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which currently manage $57 billion.
Teng emphasized the growth potential despite expected price volatility.
Echoing a sentiment of resilience, Crypto.com’s CEO Kris Marszalek viewed the recent price correction as beneficial, suggesting it curbed excess leverage.
He observed a momentum in Bitcoin’s trajectory similar to its late 2020 rally and anticipates a more gradual price increase.
Marszalek highlighted Bitcoin’s long-term value, suggesting it’s an asset meant for decades, not merely short-term speculation.
This outlook reflects a broader confidence in Bitcoin’s enduring appeal and its ability to navigate through its cyclical challenges, including the impending “danger zone.”
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As Bitcoin approaches its all-time highs, the cryptocurrency community is divided, with significant movements of coins towards larger investors, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
These “Bitcoin whales,” entities owning over 1,000 BTC, are aggressively accumulating more Bitcoin, highlighting a stark contrast in investment strategies within the market.
The divergence in investor sentiment is evident from Glassnode’s analysis, which showcases a clear split between those with larger and smaller Bitcoin holdings.
This distinction was emphasized by Bitcoin Munger on X, noting a parallel between natural observations and market behaviors.
He pointed out that while whales and “sharks” (holders of 100 to 1,000 BTC) are increasing their holdings, “fish” (those holding 10 to 100 BTC) are distributing their assets differently throughout this period.
Whales have significantly expanded their portfolios, with a net increase of 84,000 BTC in the last 30 days as of March 17, based on transactions between their wallets and exchanges.
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Sharks have also notably increased their exposure, with a net position change of 244,000 BTC in the same timeframe. This movement underscores a stark contrast with the behaviors of smaller Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin Munger’s commentary on this dynamic is telling: “Smart money is buying, while dumb money sells,” he stated, confidently predicting that the market is set to rise further.
His analysis suggests that we are yet to see the full excitement of this cycle, hinting that early sellers may regret their decision, echoing sentiments from past cycles but with a twist for the current market conditions.
Despite the ongoing struggles to establish new support levels at previous all-time highs and the transient nature of price discovery this month, institutional interest remains strong.
Bitcoin Munger remains optimistic, comparing the current market to previous cycles and suggesting that the real regret this time around will be selling too soon, encapsulating his outlook with, “This time is different.”
As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, these insights provide a glimpse into the strategic moves of different investor classes, highlighting the ongoing battle for accumulation amidst a backdrop of potential price discovery and market flux.
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Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn, approaching $60,000 on March 17, amidst ongoing selling pressure.
The cryptocurrency’s value dropped to new lows of $64,522 on Bitstamp, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, following a week of achieving record highs.
This decline was marked by a series of lower lows and unsuccessful recovery attempts, with the sell-off accelerating ahead of the anticipated weekly candle close.
Skew, a noted trader, analyzed the market, highlighting potential buying zones between $60,000 and $64,000 on major trading platforms.
The trader pointed out on X that “Majority of the selling has been driven by takers (market selling),” with significant spot selling observed from major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance since Bitcoin hit $74K.
Despite the sell-off, there was notable dollar-cost averaging at lower prices, contributing to temporary rebounds.
This latest correction represented a 12% pullback in Bitcoin’s bull market, a modest dip compared to deeper retracements in past cycles while maintaining the overall upward trend.
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With U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) set to resume purchasing on March 18, optimism remained in the air among some market participants.
Thomas Fahrer, CEO of the crypto-focused reviews portal Apollo, commented on X, “Yes, this is Bear Trap,” expressing confidence in the influx of liquidity into Bitcoin ETFs and suggesting substantial future allocations from real money.
Fahrer’s remarks hinted at potential large-scale institutional investment in Bitcoin in the near future.
As the week neared its close, attention also turned to the Bitcoin futures market, specifically the gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.
The futures market closed on March 15 at $69,135, creating a “gap” with the spot price that some believed could catalyze a market recovery, as has been observed historically.
This gap, nearly $4,000 wide, and the anticipation of renewed buying interest from ETFs and possibly institutional investors, offered a glimmer of hope for a bullish reversal in the coming weeks.
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Tim Buckley, the CEO of The Vanguard Group, remains firmly against the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite facing customer backlash and continuous queries about the company’s potential plans for such offerings.
Buckley’s stance was reinforced in a video released by Vanguard, where he warned against incorporating Bitcoin ETFs into retirement investment portfolios, citing the cryptocurrency’s volatile nature.
He asserted, “We don’t believe it belongs, like a Bitcoin ETF belongs in a long-term portfolio of someone saving for their retirement. It’s a speculative asset.”
Further questioning Bitcoin’s reliability as a store of value, Buckley highlighted its performance during the 2022 stock market downturn, where Bitcoin’s value plummeted alongside the market.
“When stocks got hammered in the recent crisis, Bitcoin went right with them.
“And so it is speculative.
“Really tough to think about how it belongs in a long-term portfolio,” he explained.
Despite Bitcoin reaching new heights, with a record value of $73,835 after previously peaking at over $69,000, its value experienced a steep decline in 2022, falling to under $16,000 amidst a 21% drop in the S&P 500 during the first half of the year, largely attributed to the United States Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
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Buckley made it clear that Vanguard has no intention of shifting its stance on offering spot Bitcoin ETFs to its clientele, stating the firm’s position would only change if the nature of the asset class itself transformed.
This resolution followed closely on the heels of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, with Vanguard promptly announcing on January 12, via Cointelegraph, its decision to abstain from offering Bitcoin ETFs or any crypto-related products.
Despite this firm stance, certain Vanguard customers, especially those from the crypto sector, have expressed their discontent.
Notably, Coinbase’s senior engineering manager, Yuga Cohler, announced his decision to transfer his Roth 401(k) savings from Vanguard to Fidelity, criticizing Vanguard’s “paternalistic blocking of Bitcoin ETFs” as incongruent with his investment philosophy.
Yet, Vanguard maintains a considerable albeit indirect exposure to Bitcoin, holding an 8.24% stake in MicroStrategy, making it the second-largest institutional investor in the company, as reported by Cointelegraph on January 12.
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The cryptocurrency sector has reacted positively to the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announcement on March 11, stating it will simplify the process for listing crypto investment products, specifically crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs), for professional investors.
However, retail investors are still excluded from participating, reflecting a cautious stance towards broader crypto market accessibility.
Europe’s regulatory framework does not support exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for single assets like Bitcoin or Ether, positioning ETNs as the preferred exchange-traded product (ETP) in both the EU and the UK.
This recent development is seen as a step towards integrating cryptocurrency into the regulated financial market, potentially closing the gap between traditional finance and the burgeoning crypto sector.
Natalia Latka of Merkle Science highlighted the significance of this move, emphasizing its potential to foster cryptocurrency’s integration into a regulated framework.
Yet, she pointed out the ongoing exclusion of retail investors, underlining the UK’s cautious approach towards embracing crypto assets among the general public.
George McDonaugh of KR1 praised the FCA’s decision but called for further action to make the market more inclusive.
He advocated for expanding the UK’s listing regime to allow more companies access to the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market and its junior market, aiming to bolster the UK’s position as a global crypto hub.
The cautious approach of the FCA, established on October 6, 2020, reflects concerns over the valuation of crypto assets, the risk of market abuse, financial crime, and the volatility of crypto asset prices.
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Despite these reservations, the cryptocurrency market has seen significant growth, prompting discussions about revisiting regulations, especially concerning retail investors.
CryptoUK, a trade association, has voiced support for regulatory changes that provide a balanced field for all types of innovation while advocating for the reconsideration of bans on retail investor access to crypto investments.
The statement stresses the importance of proportionate regulation and investor protection without disproportionately limiting access to crypto assets.
The FCA’s current stance and the industry’s reaction underscore the ongoing dialogue between regulatory bodies and the crypto sector.
The hope is for a regulatory environment that both protects investors and supports innovation, contributing to the UK’s ambition to become a leading global hub for crypto asset technology.
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Bitcoin experienced a dip below its weekly lows before the March 15 Wall Street opening, with its value declining to $65,569 on Bitstamp, as per Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
This downturn followed the cryptocurrency reaching new all-time highs, with the previous peak of $69,000 from 2021 failing to provide support.
Despite this, the market response remained relatively unfazed, maintaining a perspective that corrections are typical in a bullish trend.
“Bitcoin’s price retracing -10% on this move when greater than -30% corrections are normal during bull runs,” commented On-Chain College on X, highlighting that such corrections are a standard aspect of Bitcoin bull markets.
This sentiment was mirrored by the fact that over 95% of Bitcoin’s supply was in unrealized profit territory, suggesting a normal market behavior.
Credible Crypto, another prominent commentator, pointed to a potential bounce around the $64,000 level, noting a significant reduction in open interest during the price drop.
This perspective was bolstered by Jelle, who compared the current correction to historical averages, suggesting that a 20% pullback could see prices around $58,000, although he did not predict this with certainty.
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Jelle also expressed surprise at the pullback but remained optimistic about future price increases.
This optimism comes amidst a surge in liquidations, with nearly $300 million in BTC positions liquidated over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass.
Coverage continued with Skew noting the lack of panic shorting in the market, with most selling attributed to long position liquidations and profit-taking from hedges.
The minimal premium on Bitcoin futures indicated a cautious market sentiment, yet without significant moves towards short selling.
The overall market reaction to Bitcoin’s price movements reflects a seasoned understanding of its volatility, with many expecting these fluctuations as part of a larger bullish trend.
Despite the current retracement, the sentiment among traders and commentators suggests a continued belief in Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential.
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Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States experienced a significant decrease in net inflows, with only $132 million recorded on March 14.
This represented the lowest level of net inflows in the last eight trading sessions and a drastic 80% reduction from the $684 million recorded on March 13.
The decline on March 14 followed another decrease from the previous day, contrasting sharply with the record single-day inflows of $1.05 billion seen on March 12.
Despite the notable drop, the total inflow into Bitcoin ETFs was $390 million on March 14, factoring in a substantial $257 million in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), leading to the net inflow figure of $132 million.
The VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund also saw inflows, albeit modest, at $13.8 million and $13.7 million, respectively.
Despite GBTC’s significant outflows, the overall ETF market managed to maintain positive net flows on that day.
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Leading the inflows, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF attracted $345 million. Cumulatively, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market has seen impressive inflows, nearing the $12 billion mark after just 44 days of trading activity.
This trend of declining ETF inflows is occurring alongside a downturn in the broader crypto market, highlighted by a drop in BTC prices below $69,000.
The falling ETF inflows were mirrored by BTC price movements, which saw a new all-time high of over $73,000 on March 13 before falling to around $66,000 on March 15.
This price dip resulted in significant liquidations, with CoinGlass reporting that 193,431 traders were liquidated, totaling $682.14 million in the previous 24 hours.
Market analysts suggest that the current volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and macroeconomic considerations are prompting investor caution.
The ongoing decline in ETF inflows and BTC prices is also being watched closely in relation to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions.
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Bitcoin’s value experienced a significant drop amidst a tumultuous day in the cryptocurrency market, leading to over $661 million in crypto liquidations and affecting nearly 200,000 traders.
The sharp decline saw Bitcoin‘s price fall by 7.5% from $72,000 to $66,500 within just a few hours of trading on March 15.
Despite a brief recovery to the $68,000 mark, the cryptocurrency faced resistance and dropped to approximately $67,500, marking an 8.3% decrease from its March 14 peak of $73,737.
The bulk of the liquidations, which accounted for 80% or $525.2 million, were long positions, while short-position liquidations amounted to $136.5 million.
This sell-off contributed to a 7.3% reduction in the overall crypto market capitalization, which fell to $2.68 trillion as around $175 billion left the market.
Greeks Live, a crypto derivatives tool provider, commented on a “recent change in market tempo” on March 14, indicating a potential shift in the trend of Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows.
Pav Hundal, a lead analyst at Swyftx, expressed concerns to Cointelegraph about the potential for a correction into the low $60,000 or high $50,000 range if ETF volumes continue to diminish.
He highlighted worries over hot inflation data and a notable 48% drop in Bitcoin ETF inflow volumes from their 14-day average, which could signify a significant market correction.
On March 14, Bitcoin ETF inflows reached a monthly low of just $133 million, according to Farside Investors.
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Crypto trader and analyst CrediBULL Crypto, addressing his 380,000 followers on X, suggested that the recent market downturn was anticipated and could lead Bitcoin to drop further to between $63,000 and $64,000.
He noted that the dip had erased most of the accumulated open interest in derivatives markets.
The downturn was seemingly hastened by the release of U.S. economic data, including above-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, indicating potential for sustained high rates by the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data compounded concerns about the U.S. economy’s challenges.
Following this data, Asian stock markets also saw declines, dampening hopes for imminent lower interest rates.
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A federal judge has deemed the allegations by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that Gemini and Genesis engaged in the sale of unregistered securities through their Gemini Earn program substantial enough to proceed in court.
The ruling came from Judge Edgardo Ramos of the New York District Court on March 13, denying motions by Gemini and Genesis to dismiss the SEC’s lawsuit in a detailed 32-page order.
The lawsuit, initiated by the SEC in January 2023, claims that the Gemini Earn program, a cryptocurrency yield-bearing product offered by Gemini and managed by Genesis, involved offering and selling unregistered securities.
Judge Ramos highlighted that the program appeared to meet the criteria of an investment contract according to the Howey test, which determines what constitutes a security.
Genesis was specifically noted for not segregating pooled assets on its balance sheet and lending these funds to institutional borrowers based on its discretion, making customers’ profit expectations reliant on Genesis’ efforts.
Furthermore, the court found reasonable the SEC’s position that the agreements underpinning Gemini Earn could be classified as notes, a type of debt security that mandates the repayment of loans with interest.
Judge Ramos stated, “At this stage, under both tests, the court finds that the complaint plausibly alleges that defendants offered and sold unregistered securities through the Gemini Earn program.”
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This ruling does not imply a judgment in favor of the SEC but allows the regulatory body to proceed with its case, requiring the collection of further evidence.
The developments follow amidst a backdrop of challenges for Genesis and Gemini, including Genesis’ bankruptcy filing after the SEC’s lawsuit and subsequent agreement to a $21 million settlement with the SEC noted in a bankruptcy court filing last month.
The controversy surrounding the Gemini Earn program, which boasted around 340,000 customers and $900 million in assets under management as of November 2022, intensified following the market turmoil caused by FTX’s bankruptcy.
This turmoil led Genesis to halt withdrawals from Gemini Earn, citing liquidity issues.
In a move to resolve customer grievances, Gemini agreed in February to return $1.1 billion to Gemini Earn customers via a settlement in the Genesis bankruptcy proceedings, coordinated with New York’s financial regulator.
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