Bitcoin - Page 15

After several months of decline, Bitcoin might be setting up for a significant rally, potentially surpassing $92,000 in the next three months according to some analysts.

Bitcoin’s recent movements on the charts hint at an upcoming surge, rooted in historical patterns observed after previous halving events.

Bitcoin BTC tickers down $60,177 recently touched a crucial support level on its weekly chart, which might serve as a springboard for an impressive climb, suggests noted analyst Titan of Crypto.

“In previous cycles, when the price retested the 50-week simple moving average, it bounced at least 40%. On average, the bounce was 71%. If #BTC rallies 71% from here, it could reach $92,000,” he stated in a Sept. 13 X post.

Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $60,000 mark on Sept. 14, for the first time since Aug. 30. Over the past three months, the cryptocurrency has seen a 9% drop, per Bitstamp data.

Historically, September has often seen dips in Bitcoin’s price, with average returns around -4.69%, marking it as a typically bearish month, data from CoinGlass suggests.

However, following September’s usual downturn, Bitcoin has often rallied for three consecutive months.

Bitcoin averages returns of 22.9% in October, 46.8% in November — historically the second-best month for Bitcoin — and 5.4% in December.

During the last Bitcoin halving in 2020, the cryptocurrency’s value increased by over 27% in October and over 42% in November, part of a six-month rally that continued into March 2021.

This recent pullback might represent a pivotal buying opportunity before Bitcoin’s value escalates, according to popular crypto trader Mags, who shared on Sept. 15:

“Bitcoin gives three chances to buy before it goes parabolic… The last is right after the halving. This could be your last chance to buy Bitcoin cheap before it goes parabolic.”

Checkmate, a pseudonymous onchain analyst, also noted that Bitcoin’s current positioning mirrors its stance during past bull cycles. He elaborated on Sept. 14:

“Bitcoin is in the exact same spot as the last two cycles since the low. I prefer the cycle low comparison the most as it describes the psychological time it takes for investors to recover from a bear market.”

Bitcoin’s price neared the pivotal $60,000 mark following the Wall Street open on September 13, coinciding with gold reaching a record high in USD value at $2,585 per ounce. This surge in Bitcoin comes as the market anticipates potential Federal Reserve policy easing at the upcoming interest rate meeting, buoyed by recent U.S. macroeconomic data suggesting a positive outlook.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView highlighted Bitcoin’s ascent to 10-day highs on Bitstamp, continuing a recovery that started before the week’s opening. The U.S. stock market showed marginal gains, further underscoring the day’s positive financial trends.

Technical analysis from prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital revealed a notable bounce from the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s descending price channel. “Great reaction so far, setting BTC up for a Daily Close above the Channel Bottom (black),” he explained, indicating that such movements historically lead to upside. For a bullish close to the week, Bitcoin would need to maintain a price above $58,150 through the weekend.

As of now, Bitcoin’s monthly performance is only slightly down, unusual for September, which typically records an average loss of around 7%. Trader CrypNuevo observed, “Bitcoin is following the projection with a slow, but consistent, uptrend. This is really good.” He pinpointed immediate targets around $58.8k for liquidations and a wick up to $59.5k.

Crypto Vikings, another analyst, pointed out that Bitcoin was on the cusp of reclaiming the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour charts, predicting a “massive” breakout.

Amidst these optimistic market movements, there is growing anticipation for the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 18. Despite a slight decrease in expectations for a larger rate cut from earlier in the week, the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still show a confident projection of a 0.25% rate reduction.

Bitcoin’s price neared the pivotal $60,000 mark following the Wall Street open on September 13, coinciding with gold reaching a record high in USD value at $2,585 per ounce. This surge in Bitcoin comes as the market anticipates potential Federal Reserve policy easing at the upcoming interest rate meeting, buoyed by recent U.S. macroeconomic data suggesting a positive outlook.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView highlighted Bitcoin’s ascent to 10-day highs on Bitstamp, continuing a recovery that started before the week’s opening. The U.S. stock market showed marginal gains, further underscoring the day’s positive financial trends.

Technical analysis from prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital revealed a notable bounce from the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s descending price channel. “Great reaction so far, setting BTC up for a Daily Close above the Channel Bottom (black),” he explained, indicating that such movements historically lead to upside. For a bullish close to the week, Bitcoin would need to maintain a price above $58,150 through the weekend.

As of now, Bitcoin’s monthly performance is only slightly down, unusual for September, which typically records an average loss of around 7%. Trader CrypNuevo observed, “Bitcoin is following the projection with a slow, but consistent, uptrend. This is really good.” He pinpointed immediate targets around $58.8k for liquidations and a wick up to $59.5k.

Crypto Vikings, another analyst, pointed out that Bitcoin was on the cusp of reclaiming the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour charts, predicting a “massive” breakout.

Amidst these optimistic market movements, there is growing anticipation for the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 18. Despite a slight decrease in expectations for a larger rate cut from earlier in the week, the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still show a confident projection of a 0.25% rate reduction.

MicroStrategy, a prominent business intelligence firm, has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing about 18,300 Bitcoins between August 6 and September 12. This recent acquisition, documented in a Form 8-K filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), involved a $1.11 billion expenditure, averaging $60,408 per Bitcoin, inclusive of expenses and fees.

Since its initial Bitcoin purchase on August 11, 2020, under the guidance of CEO Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has aggressively expanded its Bitcoin investments. The company now holds approximately 244,800 BTC, valued at roughly $14.14 billion. The average purchase price of the accumulated Bitcoins since August 2020 stands at $38,585 per Bitcoin, totaling about $9.45 billion in investment.

This strategy of substantial Bitcoin acquisition has stirred both debate and commendation among financial analysts, yet MicroStrategy has persistently pursued its course in bolstering its Bitcoin reserves. The funds for the latest purchase were sourced from the sale of company shares, facilitated by an agreement with several financial institutions established on August 1. By September 12, according to SEC filings, MicroStrategy had raised approximately $1.11 billion by selling 8,048,449 shares. The capital from this substantial share sale was directly used to increase the company’s Bitcoin portfolio.

As of August 10, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin assets included 226,500 BTC valued at $13.77 billion, acquired at an average price of $37,000 per Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $60,500, providing MicroStrategy with $5.39 billion in unrealized profits. Since starting its Bitcoin investments in August 2020, MicroStrategy’s strategy has not only surpassed the performance of the S&P 500 index but also led to a dramatic 1,000% increase in the value of its MSTR stock, amounting to returns over 16 times those of the S&P 500 during the same timeframe.

Crypto and Bitcoin mining-related stocks experienced a notable recovery after initially dropping in early trading on September 11, following the United States presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. During the debate, opinion polls suggested Harris outperformed Trump, who is seen as a pro-crypto candidate, leading to a brief decline in crypto-linked shares.

Shares of Coinbase, for instance, dipped to a low of $150 on September 11 but bounced back to close the trading day slightly down at $157.22, as per Google Finance data. Similarly, MicroStrategy’s shares fell to $122 before rallying to close at $129.30, down just 0.26% for the day, and slightly dropped again to $128.50 in after-hours trading.

Mining companies also saw fluctuations, with shares of Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms initially falling but ultimately closing down by 0.94% and 2.07% respectively. Hut 8 Mining was the exception among its peers, managing to close the day up by 1.29% at $10.58 after initially dropping to $9.76.

The market’s initial reaction was likely influenced by a YouGov survey released on September 11, which showed 54% of registered voters believed Harris won the debate, compared to 31% for Trump. This sentiment was echoed in a CNN flash poll that also found a majority felt Harris had outperformed Trump.

Despite the debate’s immediate impact on stock prices, the overall crypto market showed resilience. After a significant dip that saw the total market capitalization fall by $60 billion on September 11, the market recovered 2.3%, returning to levels seen before the debate. Bitcoin itself dropped 3.7% immediately following the debate but regained strength to hit $57,900 in early trading on September 12.

However, Trump-themed memecoins didn’t fare as well, with significant losses across the board in the following 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. This reflects the volatile nature of crypto markets, especially in response to political events.

On September 10, Bitcoin saw a notable surge in outflows from exchanges, with roughly $750 million worth of assets being withdrawn. This marks the most significant net outflow since May, hinting at a potential shift in investor sentiment, as reported by IntoTheBlock (ITB). With Bitcoin prices hovering around $57,000, these movements are seen as indicators of investors’ confidence and strategic positioning.

Juan Pellicer, a senior researcher at ITB, explained in a discussion with Cointelegraph the implications of such large outflows. He stated, “Regulatory concerns can prompt withdrawals as users seek to avoid potential restrictions. Institutional accumulation typically involves large-scale transfers from exchanges.” This context suggests that both institutional and retail investors might be anticipating a rise in Bitcoin’s price, prompting them to move their holdings to private wallets for more control and security.

Another reason for the significant outflows could be the growing preference for transferring Bitcoin to cold storage—hardware wallets that are not connected to the internet. This method is preferred for its enhanced security features, supporting the trend of self-custody among investors concerned about the safety of their assets on exchanges.

The magnitude of the outflows, with a total volume of $2.95 billion on the previous day, suggests substantial institutional activity. Pellicer elaborated, “…retail investors rarely move such large amounts in total. However, some portion likely comes from retail.” This mix of institutional and retail movements indicates a broader consensus possibly leaning towards a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Historical data supports the notion that significant outflows generally precede price increases. Pellicer highlighted this pattern, saying, “As Bitcoin leaves exchanges, available supply for trading decreases. Assuming demand remains stable or increases, this supply reduction typically leads to upward price pressure.” This correlation underscores the basic supply-demand dynamics influencing Bitcoin’s market price.

For instance, on May 31, exchanges experienced a net outflow of 16,050 BTC, valued at approximately $1 billion, which was followed by a spike in Bitcoin’s price to $71,000 just five days later. This pattern suggests that large outflows could be a precursor to price rallies, reflecting a strategic shift among investors to brace for potential gains.

On September 11, Bitcoin faced a downturn, erasing recent gains as the U.S. Presidential debate left investors wanting more clear support for cryptocurrency policy. The BTC/USD pair saw a sharp $1,000 decline within an hour at the daily close, touching lows of $56,099 on Bitstamp according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

The debate, featuring Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, did not provide the crypto-specific assurances that investors had hoped for. Trading firm QCP Capital expressed disappointment, noting on Telegram, “The crypto market was also disappointed by the lack of comments related to crypto policy.” The firm also hinted at potential volatility as the U.S. Presidential election approaches, suggesting a “risk-off move in risk assets” could be likely.

Attention in the crypto market has begun shifting from the debate to economic indicators, with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures due for release. QCP Capital remarked, “With this macro event behind us, attention now turns to tonight’s CPI release,” anticipating the CPI to register at 2.55% compared to the previous 2.9%. They speculated on a possible upside surprise but expected minimal market impact as focus shifts towards unemployment data.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe commented on the potential for Bitcoin’s momentum post-CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases, suggesting that the day’s price movement was a typical pre-event correction. “Just a regular correction happening currently with CPI coming up. We’ll be good if $55-56K holds,” he stated on X.

Adding to the technical analysis, Daan Crypto Trades pointed out Bitcoin’s struggle to breach the 200-period simple (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, identifying these averages at $59,200 and $58,840 respectively. He argued that Bitcoin’s position relative to these averages could indicate the overall market strength or weakness, noting, “Bulls would want to retake those to get a further bounce going.”