Altcoins have shown considerable strength following Bitcoin’s recent recovery over the past month, leading analysts to suggest that the market may be on the brink of an altcoin season.
“The past few days have been very bullish for many #Altcoins!” said ParabolicPump, co-founder of Crypto Capital, in a Sept. 23 post on X.
Popular trader 360Trader noted that TOTAL3, which represents the total crypto market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH, had retested the upper boundary of a falling channel.
Although this crucial level has suppressed prices since March 2024, a decisive close above it would confirm a “nail in the coffin for bears,” they stated.
According to ParabolicPump, as altcoin prices rally, Bitcoin’s dominance is nearing a downside break from its rising wedge. “It is only a matter of time,” the analyst pointed out, adding: “Every bull run in crypto had a phase where Bitcoin dominance dropped to the downside significantly.”
As of Sept. 23, Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 57.39%, down 1.09% over the past week, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. Traders often watch for signs that Bitcoin dominance is peaking as an indicator to sell BTC and invest in alternative coins.
Popular analyst Nebraskangooner suggested that Bitcoin’s recent rise to 58.61% may have marked the top for this metric, as a bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) signaled a weakening market structure for BTC.
Meanwhile, pseudonymous analyst Moustance noted that TOTAL2, representing altcoins’ total market cap excluding BTC, is breaking out of a descending broadening wedge that has been active for six months.
Moustache explained that the optimistic outlook for altcoins is bolstered by the RSI breaking out of a downward trend, along with an impending bullish cross from the moving average convergence divergence indicator.
“A god candle like we haven’t seen for years is loading, in my opinion,” they stated.
However, the altcoin season index by Blockchain Center indicates that an altseason has not yet arrived. According to this index: “If 75% of the top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days), it is the Altcoin Season.”
Despite the compelling technicals, it may still be premature to conclude that an altcoin season has begun, as only 39% of the leading 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days. Since the index is below 75, it suggests that it is not yet altcoin season.
United States Vice President Kamala Harris made her first public statement about crypto during her presidential election campaign. In comments made at a Wall Street fundraiser, Harris vowed to encourage investment in artificial intelligence and digital assets.
“We will partner together to invest in America’s competitiveness, to invest in America’s future. We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors,” Harris stated at a fundraiser in Manhattan, as reported by Bloomberg on Sept. 22.
“We will create a safe business environment with consistent and transparent rules of the road,” she added. “We will invest in semiconductors, clean energy and other industries of the future, and we will cut needless bureaucracy.”
This is the first time Harris has publicly addressed crypto since becoming the Democratic Party’s presidential frontrunner. Her Republican rival, Donald Trump, has also sought support from the crypto industry.
The industry has speculated whether Harris would adopt a different approach to crypto compared to President Joe Biden, who some perceive as unfriendly to the sector.
In August, Harris’ senior campaign adviser, Brian Nelson, hinted she would support crypto policies if she wins the presidential election in November. However, she emphasized that the industry needs “rules of the road,” citing the collapse of some companies.
“This is an important and constructive statement from Kamala Harris,” Coinbase policy chief Faryar Shirzad noted in a Sept. 22 post on X.
“It’s not nearly as forward-leaning as the concrete and visionary positions taken by Donald Trump, but it’s still notable because she recognizes digital asset innovation as being important and on par with AI,” he added.
Alexander Grieve, vice president of government affairs at venture firm Paradigm, called Harris’ remarks “encouraging,” stating that regardless of the outcome in November, “this should be the last anti-crypto administration.”
“This is progress and progress is good,” crypto venture firm Variant’s legal chief Jake Chervinsky commented on X. “But ‘while protecting our consumers and investors’ could mean a lot of things.”
“The anti-crypto army uses ‘consumer protection’ as a smoke screen to conceal their attempts to destroy our industry,” he claimed. “I, for one, want to see policy details.”
Crypto has become a campaign issue, with US crypto companies, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini, spending nearly $120 million to influence the upcoming elections, as reported by Public Citizen in August.
Trump has released four non-fungible token collections, endorsed his family’s crypto platform, and has closely embraced the crypto industry. He’s promised to be a “crypto president” and to fire US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, whose agency has initiated multiple enforcement actions against major crypto players.
Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in national polls, with Harris leading Trump by only 2.9 percentage points, according to Sept. 22 data from FiveThirtyEight.
The number of Bitcoin (BTC) wallets containing 1,000 or more BTC has increased by nearly 3.5% over the past 52 weeks. This growth is accompanied by a 75% increase in the number of wallets holding 0.0001 BTC or less.
On the surface, these numbers indicate growth at both ends of the spectrum. However, a categorical examination reveals that Bitcoin’s middle class—those holding between one and ten BTC—appears to be shrinking.
This data, derived from BitInfoCharts, shows the percentage change in the number of wallets containing specific amounts of BTC between Oct. 1, 2023, and Sept. 23, 2024.
While the approximately 76% increase in the number of wallets containing less than 0.0001 BTC (worth $6.32 at the time of this article’s publishing) could indicate an influx of new users, it likely also accounts for some of the shrinkage occurring at the middle-class mark.
The number of wallets containing between one and ten Bitcoin shrunk by 0.35%, while those in the 10 to 100 range dipped by more than 3%. The only other category that didn’t grow, according to the data, was the 10,000 BTC and up club.
It’s important to note that the wallets referenced in the data don’t necessarily account for individual Bitcoin users. Many wallets could be associated with the same individual or organization, while others could be abandoned wallets.
Increased wallet numbers at the bottom tiers could indicate the emergence of relics related to selloffs after recent events such as Bitcoin’s all-time high and the halving.
On the other hand, the decrease in whales holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin aligns with the increase in those holding between 1,000 to 10,000.
Statistically, this indicates that a significant portion of wallets with BTC holdings in the middle have retreated from the 1 to 100 range to near zero. If so, a significant percentage of wallets with BTC worth between $26,542 and $2,654,200 as of October 2023 have reduced their holdings over the past year.
On a positive note, the number of Bitcoin wallets worth $1 million has increased by about 25% since the start of 2024.
Investment managers expect the United States debut of options on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to accelerate institutional adoption and potentially unlock “extraordinary upside” for spot BTC holders.
On Sept. 20, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighted Nasdaq’s electronic securities exchange to list options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). This marked the first time the regulator approved options tied to spot BTC for US trading.
Listing spot BTC options on regulated US exchanges—where the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) safeguards traders against counterparty risk—marks a “monumental advancement” in cryptocurrency markets and creates “extremely compelling opportunities” for investors, Jeff Park, Bitwise Invest’s head of alpha strategies, stated in a Sept. 20 X post.
“For the first time, Bitcoin will have a regulated market where the OCC protects clearing members from counterparty risks,” Park added. “This means Bitcoin’s synthetic notional exposure can grow exponentially without the [default] risks that have kept investors at bay.”
Options are contracts granting the right to buy or sell—“call” or “put” in trader parlance—an underlying asset at a certain price. In the US, if one party fails to uphold the agreement, the OCC intervenes and settles the trade.
Spot BTC options unlock an array of capital-efficient portfolio strategies for investors and could potentially catalyze “explosively recursive” price upside for supply-constrained spot BTC, Park mentioned.
Meanwhile, “the introduction of institutional hedging and markets through options devices fundamentally dampens volatility for the underlying asset in aggregate over time,” Tom Dunleavy, a managing partner at crypto investment firm MV Global, told Cointelegraph.
To commence trading, Nasdaq still needs signoff from two other oversight bodies—the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC). Analysts expect those approvals imminently, followed by a proliferation of similar products on other exchanges.
“I’m assuming others will be approved in short order,” Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a Sept. 20 X post.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has skyrocketed by an astounding 350,000% since its inception, especially when compared to its traditional safe-haven rival, gold.
Recent signals suggest that Bitcoin may be on the verge of another extended price rally, indicating renewed momentum against the precious metal.
According to veteran market analyst Peter Brandt, the BTC/GLD ratio chart compares the performance of these two assets and could serve as a barometer for gauging Bitcoin’s adoption rate relative to gold. For instance, an increase in this ratio reflects Bitcoin outperforming gold in market cap performance, and vice versa.
Brandt predicts that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may rise by more than 400% in 2025, supported by a classic technical pattern. This pattern, known as the inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S), develops when the price forms three consecutive troughs, with the middle trough—referred to as the head—being deeper than the left and right shoulders.
As per technical analysis rules, an IH&S pattern resolves when the price breaks above the neckline, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes. In this scenario, the price can rise as much as the maximum distance between the neckline and the head’s deepest point.
Applying this principle to the BTC/GLD ratio chart suggests an upside target of around 123. This means that by 2025, the price of 1 BTC may equal 123 ounces of gold, up over 400% compared to 24 ounces as of September 22, 2024.
The prospect of Bitcoin overtaking gold has gained traction due to its rapid adoption, particularly by institutional investors and the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have enhanced Bitcoin’s role in investment portfolios.
Since January 2024, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has led to inflows exceeding $17.69 billion, with projections indicating that the Bitcoin ETF market could reach as much as $220 billion by 2027, using gold ETFs as a benchmark.
Experts like Anthony Scaramucci argue that Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold’s market capitalization within the next decade, citing advantages such as scarcity and portability.
Bitcoin is poised for an “explosive move” by the end of 2024, with recent price action setting an ambitious target of $85,000.
In a post on X on September 21, crypto trader, investor, and analyst Titan of Crypto predicted “intermediate” gains of 35% for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin continues to hold above $62,000 as the weekly close approaches, having bounced back from a September support level that was $10,000 lower. Optimistic forecasts for BTC price suggest that conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for bulls. For Titan of Crypto, the first target is $85,000.
He shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on weekly timeframes, indicating that momentum is building for a move to new all-time highs and beyond. “Bitcoin $85,000: Intermediate Target,” he summarized.
“The Weekly RSI breakout signals an explosive move by the end of the year for BTC.”
The RSI is a classic trading indicator that helps identify likely local tops and bottoms while providing insights into the strength of an uptrend or downtrend at specific price points. Currently, the weekly RSI is above the key 50/100 mark, breaking a downtrend that has persisted since March’s latest all-time high.
Titan of Crypto noted that if September ends positively, the uptrend should continue into Q4.
“Historically, when September closes green, Q4 has been bullish,” he stated. “If we close above $59,000 this month, a bullish end of the year is likely. However, even with a red close, both 2017 and 2020 saw green Q4s. Promising Q4 ahead.”
Popular trader Skew emphasized that more confirmation of BTC price strength is necessary in the coming week. “From a technical perspective, this does look pretty good,” he told X followers.
He pointed out that a series of higher highs and higher lows is needed on daily timeframes, designating $61,000 as a critical level to maintain. “Furthermore, on $61K lows, it provides a clear line in the sand for the market,” he concluded.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has skyrocketed by an astounding 350,000% since its inception, especially when compared to its traditional safe-haven rival, gold.
Recent signals suggest that Bitcoin may be on the verge of another extended price rally, indicating renewed momentum against the precious metal.
According to veteran market analyst Peter Brandt, the BTC/GLD ratio chart compares the performance of these two assets and could serve as a barometer for gauging Bitcoin’s adoption rate relative to gold. For instance, an increase in this ratio reflects Bitcoin outperforming gold in market cap performance, and vice versa.
Brandt predicts that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may rise by more than 400% in 2025, supported by a classic technical pattern. This pattern, known as the inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S), develops when the price forms three consecutive troughs, with the middle trough—referred to as the head—being deeper than the left and right shoulders.
As per technical analysis rules, an IH&S pattern resolves when the price breaks above the neckline, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes. In this scenario, the price can rise as much as the maximum distance between the neckline and the head’s deepest point.
Applying this principle to the BTC/GLD ratio chart suggests an upside target of around 123. This means that by 2025, the price of 1 BTC may equal 123 ounces of gold, up over 400% compared to 24 ounces as of September 22, 2024.
The prospect of Bitcoin overtaking gold has gained traction due to its rapid adoption, particularly by institutional investors and the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have enhanced Bitcoin’s role in investment portfolios.
Since January 2024, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has led to inflows exceeding $17.69 billion, with projections indicating that the Bitcoin ETF market could reach as much as $220 billion by 2027, using gold ETFs as a benchmark.
Experts like Anthony Scaramucci argue that Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold’s market capitalization within the next decade, citing advantages such as scarcity and portability.
Bitcoin sold off with United States equities at the Sept. 20 Wall Street open as risk assets took a break from macro-induced upside.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action coming full circle from the daily open after hitting new three-week highs of $64,121 on Bitstamp.
The S&P 500, which set a new all-time high following a jumbo interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 18, also slid alongside the Nasdaq 100.
Gold saw room for further gains, up 1% on the day at the time of writing, while BTC/USD quickly canceled out its Wall Street dip.
“Lots of continuation signals here,” trader Roman wrote on X.
“Price Action looking bullish with low volume as we’re correcting / forming volatility to break 65k resistance. No bear divs or anything of that nature. Should see us move sideways next few days.”
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades agreed on the importance of the $65,000 mark, with Cointelegraph reporting its status as a liquidity magnet.
“The key level is $65K,” he told X followers.
“This is a big level in terms of liquidity as well as it would signal a bullish market structure break. As it would make for a higher high, after the recent higher low since the August dump.”
“We’ve only seen lower highs on the weekly thus far,” noted popular X account Cred in his latest content.
“Locally, this is the bears’ last stand, i.e., the last reasonable area where a lower high could form if they’re right, with close proximity to invalidation. $64k+ weekly close, ideally an impulsive one, would suggest a bullish break in market structure (first one in a while).”
Meanwhile, analyzing buyer appetite for BTC, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant noted that Binance was leading US exchange Coinbase.
The so-called Coinbase premium—reflecting the difference in the exchange’s BTC pricing—showed a “significant negative value” on the day.
“In other words, during the current upward trend, the fact that the Coinbase Premium is negative while Bitcoin’s price isn’t falling suggests that there is strong buying pressure occurring on Binance,” contributor “Avocado_onchain” wrote in a Quicktake blog post.
MicroStrategy has completed an approximately $1.01 billion offering of 0.625% convertible senior notes due in 2028, with plans to use a portion of the proceeds for Bitcoin acquisition.
The private offering, which concluded on Sept. 19, targeted institutional investors and enabled the conversion into cash or MicroStrategy stock.
The company also plans to use part of the funds to redeem $500 million in senior secured notes, releasing collateral that includes 69,080 Bitcoin.
On Sept. 20, according to the latest Form 8-K submitted by MicroStrategy to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, between Sept. 13 and 19:
“MicroStrategy acquired approximately 7,420 bitcoins for approximately $458.2 million in cash, using proceeds from the Offering, at an average price of approximately $61,750 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.”
The convertible senior notes are unsecured and carry a 0.625% annual interest rate, payable semi-annually on March 15 and Sept. 15.
According to the official MicroStrategy press release, the notes will mature in 2027 unless they are converted, redeemed, or repurchased earlier.
The publicly traded software company has set the initial conversion rate at 5.4589 shares of class A common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes.
This conversion translates to roughly $183.19 per share, reflecting a 40% premium over the stock’s price as of Sept. 17.
MicroStrategy plans to use the raise’s approximately $997.4 million net proceeds—after fees and expenses—to fund its aggressive BTC acquisition strategy.
The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes but will primarily focus on increasing the firm’s BTC holdings.
Part of the net proceeds will go toward the $500 million senior secured notes, which are scheduled for redemption on Sept. 26.
On Sept. 13, MicroStrategy announced its acquisition of approximately 18,300 BTC worth $1.11 billion between Aug. 6 and Sept. 12.
The firm’s SEC filing stated that the purchase was made at an average price of $60,408 per BTC.
Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy, announced in an X post that the firm had achieved a BTC yield of 4.4% quarter to date and 17% year to date, holding 244,800 BTC as of Sept. 12.
Bitcoin sold off with United States equities at the Sept. 20 Wall Street open as risk assets took a break from macro-induced upside.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action coming full circle from the daily open after hitting new three-week highs of $64,121 on Bitstamp.
The S&P 500, which set a new all-time high following a jumbo interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 18, also slid alongside the Nasdaq 100.
Gold saw room for further gains, up 1% on the day at the time of writing, while BTC/USD quickly canceled out its Wall Street dip.
“Lots of continuation signals here,” trader Roman wrote on X.
“Price Action looking bullish with low volume as we’re correcting / forming volatility to break 65k resistance. No bear divs or anything of that nature. Should see us move sideways next few days.”
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades agreed on the importance of the $65,000 mark, with Cointelegraph reporting its status as a liquidity magnet.
“The key level is $65K,” he told X followers.
“This is a big level in terms of liquidity as well as it would signal a bullish market structure break. As it would make for a higher high, after the recent higher low since the August dump.”
“We’ve only seen lower highs on the weekly thus far,” noted popular X account Cred in his latest content.
“Locally, this is the bears’ last stand, i.e., the last reasonable area where a lower high could form if they’re right, with close proximity to invalidation. $64k+ weekly close, ideally an impulsive one, would suggest a bullish break in market structure (first one in a while).”
Meanwhile, analyzing buyer appetite for BTC, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant noted that Binance was leading US exchange Coinbase.
The so-called Coinbase premium—reflecting the difference in the exchange’s BTC pricing—showed a “significant negative value” on the day.
“In other words, during the current upward trend, the fact that the Coinbase Premium is negative while Bitcoin’s price isn’t falling suggests that there is strong buying pressure occurring on Binance,” contributor “Avocado_onchain” wrote in a Quicktake blog post.