Bitcoin (BTC) retargeted $64,000 on Oct. 1 after achieving a new monthly close record for September.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that BTC/USD rebounded after a brief drop below the $63,000 mark.
With a closing price of $63,300, the September monthly close represented a gain of 7.3%, according to monitoring resource CoinGlass—marking Bitcoin’s best performance for the ninth month of the year.
While it failed to establish $65,000 as support after reaching that level last week, bulls managed to hold onto a crucial mid-term trend line represented by the 21-week simple moving average (SMA).
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, stated that maintaining this trend line was vital to avoid “opening the door to a retest” of the range lows.
“Losing the 200-Day MA is not a good sign, but holding the 20-Week MA (for now) is. Losing them both would be a sign of weakness,” he explained in a post on X.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades observed changes in order book liquidity, noting stacking at $62,700 and $67,000, which mark the support and resistance levels, respectively.
“Testing the Daily 200 Moving Average after breaking above it yet another time,” he continued, echoing Alan’s sentiments.
“So far this year it has struggled to hold on to that level. Whether BTC trades above or below is a good mid/high timeframe momentum and strength indicator.”
On lower timeframes, fellow trader Roman expressed confidence in continued upward movement.
“Some nice bull divs now forming on H4,” he noted, referencing a bullish divergence between price and the relative strength index (RSI) indicator.
As previously reported, such scenarios often precede bullish BTC price action.
“Expecting some upward movement/chop which will hopefully give us upwards consolidation instead of our 1D deviation,” Roman forecasted.
Others suggested “buying the dip” as a practical short-term strategy, despite fading progress beyond $65,000.
“Bitcoin officially made a higher high by closing above $65,000 — on the weekly as well,” remarked trader and analyst Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets.”
“Now we look for dips to buy as it potentially establishes another higher low. Altcoins largely look the same, backtesting their own key breakout resistances as support.”
Bitcoin’s price is poised to benefit from the upcoming United States presidential election, regardless of the winner, according to CK Zheng, the investment chief at ZX Squared Capital.
Zheng explained that the impact of April’s Bitcoin halving event has historically resulted in strong fourth quarters. He noted that both US presidential candidates have not adequately addressed a significant issue that could favor Bitcoin.
“As both Republican and Democratic parties do not appropriately address the ever-increasing US debts and deficits during this election, this will be very bullish for Bitcoin especially post the US election,” Zheng stated.
Bitcoin (BTC) has historically thrived amid uncertainties related to previous US presidential elections, and Zheng believes this trend will continue.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin has often surged in the fourth quarter, rallying more than 50% six times since 2013. Years with Bitcoin halving events typically amplify these gains.
During the 2020 halving, for instance, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 168% in the fourth quarter, coinciding with the last US presidential election.
Zheng anticipates that Bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high in Q4 or shortly thereafter.
However, Samantha Yap, CEO and founder of the Web3 PR firm YAP, expressed a different perspective. She told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin rallies and their resulting price increases are often the “least interesting aspect.”
“What matters is the surge in retail interest across the crypto industry that follows. Media attention often follows retail attention, kicking off a whole media frenzy. The hope for the crypto and Web3 space during these moments is that there are more usable and accessible applications ready for newcomers to adopt,” Yap explained.
Zheng also mentioned that the Federal Reserve’s “aggressive” 50 basis point interest-rate cut could be “bullish” for Bitcoin and risk-on assets if the US economy manages to achieve a “soft landing.”
Central banks aim for soft landings by adjusting interest rates sufficiently to prevent overheating and high inflation, but not enough to trigger a downturn.
If the Federal Reserve succeeds, Zheng expects Bitcoin’s price to closely correlate with the NASDAQ.
Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) has officially authorized professional investors to engage with “foreign virtual asset” exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In a September 30 announcement, the FSC stated that this move aims to broaden “product choices” and “open investment channels for professional investors,” enhancing Taiwan’s financial market competitiveness.
The commission also indicated that it will continue to monitor the virtual asset market, emphasizing the importance of risk management and regulatory compliance.
Taiwan has historically adopted a conservative approach to digital assets, such as cryptocurrencies, due to concerns about risks like fraud and volatility.
The FSC has issued multiple warnings and enforced strict Anti-Money Laundering measures, particularly aimed at cryptocurrency exchanges.
Additionally, the Taiwanese government has supported initiatives like the 2018 FinTech Regulatory Sandbox, which allows startups and institutions to experiment with new business models without full regulatory compliance.
Taiwan’s regulatory shift towards supporting digital asset ETFs aligns with similar policies seen in major global financial centers, including Hong Kong and Singapore.
By restricting access to these high-risk investments to professional investors, Taiwan seeks to balance exposure to digital assets while also managing risk.
In Taiwan, digital asset ETFs are categorized as “high-risk investments,” and firms wishing to handle them must adhere to FSC regulations concerning professional investors.
Despite this progress in digital asset ETFs, Taiwan’s central bank remains cautious about launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
Yang Chin-long, president of the Central Bank of the Republic of China, has previously stated that there is no urgency to introduce a CBDC, advocating for a gradual approach rather than rushing to compete with other nations.
While Taiwan has developed a CBDC protocol for retail payments and is exploring a proof-of-concept for wholesale CBDCs, the central bank’s strategy continues to align with the government’s broader digital policy objectives.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have accumulated over $1.1 billion in inflows since Sept. 23, marking the largest week of inflows since July 15–19.
According to Farside Investors, this figure included $494.4 million on Sept. 27, which was the best-performing day since June 4. On Sept. 26, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $366 million.
The leading funds for weekly inflows were BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, and the Fidelity® Wise Origin® Bitcoin Fund, which brought in $499 million, $289.5 million, and $206.1 million, respectively.
Other funds such as Invesco and Galaxy, Franklin Templeton, Valkyrie, and VanEck saw inflows ranging from $5.7 million to $33.3 million. However, the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund did not record any inflows during the week.
The latest inflows have raised the total for the 11 spot ETFs to $18.8 billion since their launch in January.
This surge in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows follows the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut on Sept. 18. Since that cut, Bitcoin has rallied by 13.8%, reaching $65,800, according to CoinGecko data.
Currently, Bitcoin is only 10.8% away from its all-time high of $73,738, which was set on March 14. As the fourth quarter approaches, Bitcoin has historically recorded gains of 50% or higher in Q4 in five of the last nine years, as per CoinGlass data.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ether ETFs have reported $85 million in inflows this week, marking their largest week since Aug. 5–9. Since launching on July 23, these Ethereum products have seen a total of just over $1.1 billion in inflows, even after accounting for $2.9 billion in outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States experienced their largest daily inflow in over two months as the asset surpassed $65,000 in late trading on Sept. 26.
The total aggregate inflow for the eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. reached $365.7 million on that day, according to preliminary data from Farside Investors.
This substantial ETF inflow is the highest since July 22, when there was an inflow of $486 million. It also marks the sixth consecutive trading day of inflows for these institutional investment products.
The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) led the charge with an inflow of $113.8 million, closely followed by the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with $93.4 million.
On Sept. 25, BlackRock recorded its largest inflow day in a month, totaling $184.4 million.
The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) attracted inflows of $74 million, while the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw $50.4 million in inflows. The VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) recorded $22.1 million for the day.
Meanwhile, minor inflows were noted for the Invesco, Franklin, and Valkyrie ETFs, which had inflows of $6.5 million, $5.7 million, and $4.6 million, respectively.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) was the only fund to see outflows, losing $7.7 million, which brings its total outflow to $20.1 billion since converting to a spot ETF in January.
The latest capital injection increases the aggregate inflow since inception for all eleven spot ETFs to $18.3 billion.
ETF Store President Nate Geraci commented on the significant inflow in a post on X on Sept. 27, stating, “For context, out of 500 ETFs launched in 2024, less than 25 have taken this amount in for the entire year.”
On Sept. 25, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs are “92% of the way to owning 1 million Bitcoin and 83% of the way to passing Satoshi as the top holder.”
Spot prices for Bitcoin have gained nearly 13% over the past fortnight following the Fed’s interest rate cut.
In contrast, spot Ethereum ETFs have not seen the same momentum, with nine funds registering an outflow of $100,000 on Sept. 26, despite BlackRock and Fidelity receiving more than $15 million in inflows for their respective spot Ether funds. Grayscale’s high-fee Ethereum Trust (ETHE) continues to lose assets, shedding an additional $36 million on Thursday.
Bitcoin tapped $65,000 after the Sept. 26 Wall Street open as United States macro events fueled risk asset gains.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that BTC price momentum pushed it to $65,521 on Bitstamp — marking its highest point in nearly two months.
The continued upward movement was spurred by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who increased optimism that the Federal Reserve would achieve a “soft landing” for inflation.
Speaking to CNBC, Yellen portrayed a positive outlook for the US economy, a tone that Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not echo during his prepared remarks at the 2024 US Treasury Market Conference at the New York Fed.
“As I noted when I spoke at this event in 2015, our nation’s entire financial framework has been built around the ability to quickly and efficiently transform Treasury securities into cash liquidity,” he stated.
“I said then that ‘these markets need to keep functioning at a high level, and we all have a stake in making sure that they do.’ I remain wholly dedicated to that goal.”
Additionally, US Q2 gross domestic product data met expectations at 3.0%, while jobless claims fell slightly below anticipated levels.
The S&P 500 set a new intraday record high on the same day, continuing a rally that gained momentum after Powell announced the first interest rate cuts in four years on Sept. 18.
Commenting on the situation, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter attributed the latest gains to China, which announced various fiscal stimulus measures this week.
“This is only the beginning,” it stated in a dedicated thread on X, describing China as “panicking.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin market participants recognized the need for consolidation around the recent highs before pursuing further upside.
“$65K ask liquidity taken. Next ask liquidity is $66K. Bid liquidity around $62K – $61K,” popular trader Skew informed X followers.
“So given the large gap now, would want to see more structure develop or a nice consolidation before continuation higher. The bad outcome would be a full retrace with weakness.”
Recent data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed liquidity accumulating on either side of the spot price once more across exchange order books.
Bitcoin could be nearing a test of its all-time high, but uncertainty remains regarding how quickly traders will take profits, according to a crypto analyst.
“Should history repeat itself, Bitcoin is likely to retest its all-time high above $73,750 from the third week of October into November,” said Ryan Lee, chief research analyst at Bitget, in an interview with Cointelegraph.
Lee explained that there are signs indicating a Bitcoin “breakout imminent in the coming month,” but he warned that price action may become volatile.
“This bullish breakout will likely be accompanied by occasional cool-offs that will translate as selloffs,” Lee noted, emphasizing that investor sentiment leading up to the United States election in November will significantly influence these movements.
“The intensity of these selloffs might vary, depending on investors’ disposition to the coming election.” He pointed out that optimism among traders has risen since the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points and the People’s Bank of China followed suit with a 30 basis point cut, making riskier assets more appealing.
Lee argued that if confidence builds around the possibility of a “pro-Bitcoin” president, traders may hesitate to sell, fearing they could miss out on larger profit opportunities.
“They may want to lay out their bets early to capture future gains. This sentiment will likely help Bitcoin record a bullish uptick rather than selloffs,” he added.
On Sept. 18, Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik stated that a Donald Trump victory would be “bullish for crypto in the US.” However, he believes a Kamala Harris win would be “bullish for crypto outside the US,” as crypto firms might relocate.
During his election campaign, Trump has consistently supported the crypto industry. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 5, he reiterated his commitment to making the US a global crypto hub.
“Instead of attacking industries of the future, we will embrace them, including making America the world capital of crypto and Bitcoin,” Trump stated.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $63,820, up 2.75% since Sept. 19, according to TradingView data.
Bitcoin sellers are now “minimal” despite prices remaining within 15% of their all-time highs.
Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant indicates that sell-side risk is at its lowest since the beginning of 2024.
Bitcoin may have experienced knee-jerk sell-offs during recent bouts of price volatility, but overall, few seem “willing” to capitulate.
CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. analyzed the sell-side risk ratio metric, revealing that the number of potential sellers has dropped significantly since the BTC/USD all-time high in March.
“Since the $73K peak, the number of people willing to sell Bitcoin has dropped to a minimum zone over the past 6 months,” he noted in a post on X on Sept. 25.
The sell-side risk ratio combines all on-chain realized profits and losses per day and divides that by Bitcoin’s realized cap.
Currently, its values are below 20,000, whereas, during the March peak, the metric was nearly 80,000.
An accompanying chart uploaded by Adler describes this sell-side risk as “minimal.”
Further analysis showed healthy network activity when measured in US dollar terms.
On-chain realized profit and loss figures indicate a net daily tally of around $500 million, which is a fraction of March’s $3.6 billion record.
“If you think the network is dead, you’re mistaken,” Adler summarized.
“On average, Bitcoin generates around $571 million in profits each day, compared to $115 million in losses. The net average profit investors are making is measured at $456 million per day.”
As Cointelegraph continues to report, the aggregate cost basis of various Bitcoin investor cohorts plays a critical role in defining BTC price support and resistance.
Bitcoin speculators, or short-term holders (STHs), are currently “in the black” after a prolonged period of uncertainty, often distributing their holdings to the market at a loss.
The STH cost basis currently sits at around $62,250, according to data from BGeometrics.
United States Representative Tom Emmer criticized Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler during a congressional hearing, labeling him the most “destructive” and “lawless” chair in the regulator’s 90-year history.
“You’ve made up the term crypto asset security. This term is nowhere to be found in statute; you made it up [and] you never provided any interpretive guidance on how crypto asset security might be defined within the walls of your SEC,” Emmer stated before the House Financial Services Committee on Sept. 24.
He argued that this term formed the foundation of Gensler’s “enforcement crusade” against the crypto industry over the past three years, until SEC lawyers retracted it in a court footnote last week.
“Your inconsistencies on this issue have set this country back. We could not have had a more historically destructive or lawless chairman of the SEC,” Emmer said.
Emmer also questioned Gensler about the SEC’s handling of the Debt Box case, where the SEC sued a crypto startup for an alleged $50 million fraud scheme.
The case was dismissed on May 28, and the SEC was ordered to pay $1.8 million in fees.
Gensler, responding to Emmer’s inquiries, acknowledged that the matters in the Debt Box case were “not well handled.”
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce also criticized Gensler, stating the SEC should have retracted the term crypto asset security much earlier.
“[By] tucking into a footnote, we admit that now actually the token itself is not a security. That’s something that we should have admitted long ago,” Peirce said.
She added, “We’ve fallen on our duty as a regulator not to be precise.”
When asked about the need for a statutory definition for crypto tokens, Peirce indicated that while it’s helpful for Congress to weigh in, the SEC could provide guidelines it has chosen not to.
Despite calls to rescind the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 rule, Gensler confirmed it would remain in effect, stating, “No, it’s a good accounting bulletin.”
He claimed it helps public companies understand the risks associated with holding crypto, citing recent bankruptcies.
Representative Wiley Nickel countered that SAB 121 actually makes the digital asset ecosystem “less safe.”
Nickel criticized the SEC for exempting Bank of New York Mellon from the reporting requirement, arguing it leads to “different rules for different folks.”
Altcoins have shown considerable strength following Bitcoin’s recent recovery over the past month, leading analysts to suggest that the market may be on the brink of an altcoin season.
“The past few days have been very bullish for many #Altcoins!” said ParabolicPump, co-founder of Crypto Capital, in a Sept. 23 post on X.
Popular trader 360Trader noted that TOTAL3, which represents the total crypto market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH, had retested the upper boundary of a falling channel.
Although this crucial level has suppressed prices since March 2024, a decisive close above it would confirm a “nail in the coffin for bears,” they stated.
According to ParabolicPump, as altcoin prices rally, Bitcoin’s dominance is nearing a downside break from its rising wedge. “It is only a matter of time,” the analyst pointed out, adding: “Every bull run in crypto had a phase where Bitcoin dominance dropped to the downside significantly.”
As of Sept. 23, Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 57.39%, down 1.09% over the past week, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. Traders often watch for signs that Bitcoin dominance is peaking as an indicator to sell BTC and invest in alternative coins.
Popular analyst Nebraskangooner suggested that Bitcoin’s recent rise to 58.61% may have marked the top for this metric, as a bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) signaled a weakening market structure for BTC.
Meanwhile, pseudonymous analyst Moustance noted that TOTAL2, representing altcoins’ total market cap excluding BTC, is breaking out of a descending broadening wedge that has been active for six months.
Moustache explained that the optimistic outlook for altcoins is bolstered by the RSI breaking out of a downward trend, along with an impending bullish cross from the moving average convergence divergence indicator.
“A god candle like we haven’t seen for years is loading, in my opinion,” they stated.
However, the altcoin season index by Blockchain Center indicates that an altseason has not yet arrived. According to this index: “If 75% of the top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days), it is the Altcoin Season.”
Despite the compelling technicals, it may still be premature to conclude that an altcoin season has begun, as only 39% of the leading 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days. Since the index is below 75, it suggests that it is not yet altcoin season.