Bitcoin - Page 11

Crypto markets are in the “Banana Zone” and heading toward a “Banana Singularity,” a phase where “everything goes up,” according to Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal.

The “Banana Zone,” coined by Pal, refers to periods of significant upward price movement.

“Yes, we are still in the Banana Zone,” Pal said on X on Jan. 10, adding that the first phase of this bull market began with a breakout in November last year.

This phase was followed by consolidation, similar to the 2016–2017 cycle, which Pal noted “won’t last long.”

Pal predicted the next stage, the “Banana Singularity,” as an altcoin season “when everything goes up, followed by a bigger consolidation.”

Altcoin seasons typically follow declines in Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, which currently remains high at 58%, per TradingView.

DeFi researcher 0xNobler appeared to agree with Pal, writing on X that “Bitcoin just entered the acceleration phase” and forecasting a dramatic rise to $500,000, which could “ignite the biggest altseason in history.”

Futures trader CoinMamba, however, offered a more skeptical take, saying, “This sell-off is so bad that we will have an altseason just by prices going back to what it was one week ago.”

Pal described the third and final phase of the Banana Zone as the “concentration phase,” where “core winners explode on to make much higher highs.”

Despite recent corrections, crypto markets have risen 90% year-over-year in total market capitalization, growing from $1.8 trillion to $3.4 trillion after most of 2024 was spent consolidating.

Total market capitalization reached an all-time high of $3.9 trillion on Dec. 17, marking a 27% increase over the previous cycle’s peak.

Large Bitcoin holders have resumed significant buying as Bitcoin’s price dipped toward the end of 2024 following its record high, according to Blocktrends analyst Cauê Oliveira.

More than 34,000 Bitcoin, worth approximately $3.2 billion, have been “accumulated by institutional investors, providing buying pressure for the current recovery in Bitcoin,” Oliveira wrote in a Jan. 8 CryptoQuant post.

The accumulation followed a sell-off where wallets holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC dumped 79,000 Bitcoin in the week after Dec. 21.

This came days after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $108,000 on Dec. 17, driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, which “ended up generating a 15% correction,” Oliveira noted.

He explained that “large players took advantage of the consolidation” by executing multiple smaller trades to accumulate Bitcoin at prices below $95,000.

The seven-day balance change in Bitcoin holdings flipped positive following the late-December sell-off.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $94,900, down 2.3% on the day, alongside a broader crypto market dip.

The drop followed U.S. jobs and economic data that dampened expectations of further interest rate cuts by the end of January.

In a Jan. 6 market note, Bitfinex analysts highlighted that sell-side liquidity in Bitcoin markets is “shrinking at a rapid pace,” suggesting that the worst of the price pressure might be over.

Analysts are optimistic about a record rally in 2025, fueled by pro-crypto policies anticipated from President-elect Donald Trump and increasing Bitcoin adoption by nation-states.

Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Matt Hogan predicted in a Jan. 7 report that “more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will look to establish strategic positions in Bitcoin.”

Blockware analysts suggest that U.S. Bitcoin reserves could drive prices to $150,000 in a worst-case scenario and over $400,000 in the best case.

Republican state senator Dusty Deevers has introduced legislation in Oklahoma to allow residents and employees to opt for salaries in Bitcoin and enable businesses to accept BTC payments.

“In a time when inflation is eroding the purchasing power of hard-working Oklahomans, Bitcoin provides a unique opportunity to protect earnings and investments,” Deevers stated upon introducing the Bitcoin Freedom Act on Jan. 8.

“As Bitcoin continues to rise and the value of the dollar continues to be printed away in Washington D.C., Oklahoma must act to protect our people,” he added.

The proposed bill, SB325, is designed to be entirely voluntary, emphasizing free-market principles.

It allows employees, employers, and businesses to decide whether to use Bitcoin for transactions, salaries, and investments.

One of the bill’s primary objectives is to establish a secure framework for the use of Bitcoin by individuals, businesses, and the state.

Deevers praised President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance, stating, “Bitcoin has arrived into the mainstream of our economy and is unquestionably a significant part of the financial future.”

The senator highlighted that the legislation positions Oklahoma as a national leader in embracing financial technology, providing citizens with more financial options.

The Bitcoin Freedom Act will be considered during the 60th legislative session starting Feb. 3.

Deevers, an outspoken critic of inflation, said, “If Washington D.C. can ruin something, it likely will. And it is certainly ruining the US dollar.”

He reiterated his commitment to protecting the financial well-being of his constituents, saying, “One of my biggest campaign promises was to fight for the financial well-being of those I represent.”

On Jan. 9, Deevers also voiced opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), warning they could lead to government overreach and undermine financial privacy.

“Bitcoin promotes financial sovereignty,” he said, emphasizing its decentralized and censorship-resistant qualities, which safeguard individuals from government interference or inflationary manipulation.

Aleš Michl, governor of the Czech National Bank (CNB), has expressed interest in Bitcoin as a potential diversification strategy for the country’s foreign exchange reserves, signaling growing government consideration of cryptocurrency as a savings tool.

In an interview with CNN Prima News, Michl stated he was considering acquiring “a few Bitcoin” for diversification, though it would not constitute a major investment for the bank.

The CNB board, composed of seven members, would need to approve any decision to acquire Bitcoin.

Janis Aliapulios, an adviser to the board, clarified that the bank currently has no plans to invest in Bitcoin. “To sum up, CNB is now not considering buying crypto assets for its reserves. However, Governor Michl did not rule out further future debate on this topic,” Aliapulios told Cointelegraph.

The bank will continue its diversification efforts through increased gold purchases, with plans to raise gold holdings to 5% of total assets by 2028, Aliapulios added.

Bitcoin’s robust returns have made it an attractive potential reserve asset alongside gold. Over the past year, Bitcoin prices surged over 131%, compared to gold’s 30% rise, according to TradingView data.

Michl’s comments indicate a growing trend among governments and institutions reassessing financial strategies to include Bitcoin.

Anndy Lian, blockchain expert and author, remarked, “As more countries ponder this path, we might see a gradual redefinition of what constitutes a ‘safe’ reserve asset. If Bitcoin becomes a staple in national reserves, it could fundamentally alter the landscape of global finance, pushing for more decentralized and digital approaches to economic stability.”

However, Lian also noted Bitcoin’s price volatility could be a “double-edged sword” for national reserves, potentially causing financial fluctuations.

In the United States, Bitcoin’s status as a savings technology continues to gain traction. The Bitcoin Act, proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, advocates for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, further advancing its recognition as a reserve asset.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States accumulated nearly three times the 14,000 coins produced by miners in December 2024.

According to data averaged from Apollo and BiTBO, US spot Bitcoin ETFs added approximately 51,500 BTC in December.

The demand was fueled by strong spot market momentum, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $108,135 on Dec. 17, as reported by CoinGecko.

By comparison, only 13,850 new Bitcoin were added to the circulating supply during the same period, according to Blockchain.com.

This means Bitcoin demand from ETFs was 272% higher than the amount miners produced.

“There’s not enough supply available at current prices to satisfy demand,” said Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, noting that supply-demand price equilibrium would need to be restored as market momentum surged after Donald Trump’s election victory in November.

On Jan. 6, crypto researcher Vivek predicted a “supply shock” as BTC exchange balances fell to record lows.

Major Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract massive investments.

On Jan. 3, over $900 million worth of Bitcoin was acquired by ETFs.

Preliminary data indicated Jan. 6 was poised to exceed this, with inflows nearing $1 billion.

Bitcoin Mining Production in December

Major mining firms reported their December production figures, showcasing varied output levels.

MARA Holdings, the largest miner by market capitalization, produced 9,457 BTC, leading the industry.

Riot mined 516 BTC, a 4% increase from the previous month, while Cleanspark reported 668 coins.

Core Scientific’s owned fleet generated 291 BTC, Bitfarms mined 211 BTC, Terawulf produced 158 BTC, and cloud mining provider BitFuFu contributed 111 coins.

With ETF demand surging and mining supply limited, the market dynamics suggest continued upward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Japan-based venture capital firm Metaplanet has set a goal to increase its Bitcoin holdings more than fivefold to 10,000 BTC in 2025.

This move comes as analysts predict a bullish year for Bitcoin, with projections suggesting it could surpass $200,000.

Currently, Metaplanet holds 1,762 Bitcoin, valued at $173.4 million from 19 separate purchases, following a strategy similar to MicroStrategy’s.

In a Jan. 5 X post, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich stated the company plans to achieve this goal by “utilizing the most accretive capital market tools available to us.”

Gerovich added that Metaplanet aims to promote Bitcoin adoption both in Japan and globally while enhancing its influence within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

“We’re not just building a company but driving a movement,” Gerovich said.

Metaplanet is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in Asia and ranks 15th globally among publicly listed companies, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.

This ambitious plan aligns with bullish predictions from asset managers VanEck and Bitwise, who foresee Bitcoin reaching $180,000 to $200,000 in 2025.

They suggest this could climb even higher if the United States establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve under an anticipated crypto-friendly Trump administration.

Gerovich believes such a move would “trigger a global domino effect.”

“Countries around the world will follow. Japan is one of those countries where they do look to the US as their big brother. If President Trump adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, Japan and many other countries in Asia will do the same,” Gerovich said at Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin New Year’s Eve party in Florida.

In 2024, Metaplanet increased its Bitcoin holdings significantly, including a December purchase of 619.7 BTC, its largest single acquisition.

The company’s shares have soared 950% since it began accumulating Bitcoin in April 2024 at an average price of $77,196.

Looking ahead, Metaplanet plans to leverage loans, equity, and convertible bonds to meet its 2025 Bitcoin target.

The firm also projected an operating profit for 2024, marking its first since 2017.

The Bitcoin network settled over $19 trillion in transactions in 2024, more than doubling the $8.7 trillion settled in 2023 and reversing two years of declining transaction volume.

Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms, highlighted the milestone, noting that Bitcoin’s transaction volume peaked at $47 trillion during the 2021 bull market before declining sharply in 2022 and 2023.

Rochard stated, “The Bitcoin network finalized more than $19 trillion worth of BTC transactions in 2024, decisively proving that Bitcoin is both a store of value and a medium of exchange.”

Bitcoin’s notable achievements in 2024 included the launch of a BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, the April 2024 halving event, and a new all-time high price of approximately $108,000.

Bitcoin Hashrate Reaches New Records in 2025

The hashrate of the Bitcoin network, which measures the total computing power securing the protocol, hit a record high of 1,000 exahashes per second (EH/s) on Jan. 3, 2025.

However, it has since decreased to around 775 EH/s, according to data from CryptoQuant.

In 2024, over 40% of the global Bitcoin hashrate was contributed by U.S.-based mining pools.

Foundry USA and MARA Pool, two major U.S. mining pools, collectively accounted for 38.5% of all blocks mined during the year, according to TheMinerMag.

Despite the rising influence of U.S.-based pools, China-based mining pools continue to control a majority of the Bitcoin network’s hashrate.

Accurately measuring hashrate dominance remains challenging due to Bitcoin mining’s decentralized and pseudonymous nature.

Mining companies may operate in one country while sourcing computing power from miners worldwide.

Additionally, VPNs allow miners to obscure their geographic locations, further complicating efforts to determine true hashrate distribution.

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, plans to raise $2 billion through a perpetual preferred stock offering to fund additional Bitcoin acquisitions, expanding its ambitious “21/21” strategy.

The offering could involve converting MicroStrategy’s class A common stock, paying cash dividends, redeeming shares, or a combination of these, the company explained in a Jan. 3 statement.

This move is separate from MicroStrategy’s ongoing effort to raise $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed-income instruments, a strategy it has executed recently through senior convertible notes and debt to fuel its Bitcoin purchases.

The perpetual preferred stock offering aims to bolster the company’s balance sheet and finance more Bitcoin acquisitions.

It is expected to take place this quarter, although MicroStrategy emphasized, “The decision whether to proceed with and consummate the Offering is in MicroStrategy’s sole discretion and is subject to market and other conditions. MicroStrategy may choose not to proceed with or consummate the Offering at all.”

Unlike class A common stock, the perpetual preferred stock is “senior,” giving holders priority in the event of bankruptcy or liquidation.

MicroStrategy’s Massive Bitcoin Holdings

MicroStrategy currently owns 446,400 Bitcoin worth $43.9 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries.

In 2024, the firm purchased 257,250 Bitcoin, marking its largest annual acquisition to date.

The company’s Bitcoin has been acquired at an average price of $62,500, leaving it up 57.2% on its investment.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the architect of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, has been pivotal in promoting corporate Bitcoin adoption globally.

The strategy has significantly boosted MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR), which rose 13.2% on Jan. 3 to $339.6, representing a 438% increase compared to last year.

Following the announcement of the perpetual preferred stock offering, MSTR shares fell slightly by 0.19% in after-hours trading.

Bitcoin (BTC) maintained pressure on a key resistance level during the Jan. 3 Wall Street open, with concerns of a potential price dip lingering.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading above $97,000 as the U.S. session began.

Following a rapid start to the new year and a retest of $96,000 as support, Bitcoin aimed to reclaim the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

At $96,740 at the time of writing, the 50-day SMA previously acted as support for over two months before being lost in late December.

“Nice follow-through on the falling wedge breakout,” trading account SuperBro noted on X.

“Careful not to get aggressive with longs into potential resistance, now we need to reclaim the 20 and 50 SMA and flip these back to support.”

Other analysts anticipated that the trendline could regain its role as support, potentially fueling a continued bull run after last month’s cooldown.

On shorter timeframes, however, trader Roman advised caution.

“I think some of you are getting excited a bit too early,” he commented, analyzing four-hour charts.

“We’ve got a low-volume pump with maxed stoch RSI. Generally means we come down a bit.”

The stochastic relative strength index (RSI) exceeded the overbought 70 threshold, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart as a critical resistance level, with the 200-period EMA providing support.

“Trading right around the high volume node. Meaning, most volume traded between these prices,” Daan explained on X.

“Price moves easier when it breaks away from such a high volume area. The 4H 200MA is guarding the top side. I want to see this break above $98K+ to get the party started and start the run back to all-time highs. $95K is an important level to hold in the short term.”