As President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, Bitcoin enthusiasts are anticipating a potential price surge, driven by his pro-crypto promises, including the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve.
Central to this discussion is Senator Cynthia Lummis’ BITCOIN Act of 2024. This controversial bill proposes that the Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years, with annual purchases of 200,000 BTC.
The proposal has sparked heated debate among crypto analysts. Some view a Bitcoin reserve as a safeguard against the flaws of the fiat monetary system, while others warn of the potential for economic instability. Critics suggest it could trigger hyperinflation for the dollar, while proponents argue that delaying Bitcoin adoption may leave the US lagging behind.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, framed the debate as a paradox: “Should Bitcoin be adopted early because the dollar is weakening, or could adopting Bitcoin itself be the catalyst for the dollar’s decline?”
Global Perspectives on Bitcoin Adoption
In Suriname, independent presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe has built her campaign around anti-corruption and fiscal reform, inspired by El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption.
Parbhoe criticized traditional monetary systems, stating, “Endless money printing and [a] Ponzi-like banking system has created a loser game that leads to hyperinflation.” She believes Bitcoin adoption could curb reckless fiscal policies, forcing governments to operate within their means and restoring public trust in the monetary system.
“Failing to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset is equivalent to ignoring the internet in the 1990s. It’s financial suicide,” she warned.
Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin accelerator Jan3, echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the potential for Bitcoin reserves to offset US debt. “If the US adopts Bitcoin on a meaningful scale… it could use the future appreciation of Bitcoin to offset or even eliminate the debt,” Mow said.
As Donald Trump prepares to take office as the 47th president of the United States, speculation is growing about the inclusion of US-based cryptocurrencies in a potential strategic reserve.
The New York Post reported on Jan. 16 that Trump is “receptive” to the idea of forming a strategic reserve emphasizing cryptocurrencies like USD Coin (USDC), Solana (SOL), and XRP, rather than Bitcoin (BTC). The report cited unidentified sources who claimed the proposal could sideline Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Rumors intensified after Trump recently dined with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty. Garlinghouse shared a photo from the meeting, describing it as a “strong start to 2025.”
Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Pledge
The idea of a national Bitcoin reserve gained momentum in July 2024, when Trump vowed during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville that his administration would maintain government-held Bitcoin holdings. He announced plans to create “a strategic national Bitcoin reserve” in his speech.
Following this, Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act on July 31, outlining a strategy for the US Treasury to purchase up to 200,000 BTC annually, with the goal of building a 1 million BTC reserve over 20 years.
Trump’s pro-crypto stance has also been evident through his nomination of Paul Atkins as the new SEC chair, a move seen as signaling more lenient cryptocurrency regulations.
Community Reactions
The crypto community has reacted strongly to rumors that altcoins may take precedence over Bitcoin.
Almeida, co-founder of Orquestra, criticized the potential move, stating, “It’s very disappointing if true. Credibility goes to -1.”
Meanwhile, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc, dismissed the idea as “fake news,” sarcastically referring to Ripple as “Kamala coin.”
Bitcoin could struggle to maintain momentum even if it reclaims the $100,000 level, according to new analysis.
In a Jan. 16 X post, trading resource Stockmoney Lizards predicted that BTC/USD still has weeks of rangebound trading ahead.
$102,000: A Tough Barrier for Bitcoin
After bouncing from recent two-month lows, Bitcoin’s recovery remains uncertain. Stockmoney Lizards highlighted that while Bitcoin has touched $100,000, a stronger resistance level at $102,000 poses a significant challenge.
“BTC is entering a resistance zone (upper channel level),” the analysis stated, accompanied by a 4-hour chart.
“Fibs are drawn here and should guide future short-term PA: 1. 91-92k is the high volume lower support level (1.618 Fib Extension) 2. If BTC moves higher, the previous high at 102k will be the hardest nut to crack.”
At the time of writing, BTC/USD hovered around $99,000, buoyed by positive US inflation data. However, Stockmoney Lizards cautioned that a bull market recovery in January remains unlikely.
“Conclusion: A rejection from here is likely, we expect BTC to continue trading in the 90-100k range in the next weeks,” the post added.
Mixed Sentiment Among Traders
Other analysts echoed the challenges at $102,000. Popular X account BigMike7335 noted, “$BTC must flip $102k into support to remove us from the threat of the triangle IMO,” sharing a 12-hour chart with key indicators.
Meanwhile, some traders remained optimistic, pointing to the invalidation of a bearish head and shoulders reversal pattern.
“And just like that, head and shoulder breakdown sellers completely and utterly rekt,” trader Bluntz tweeted.
Bitcoin’s price action continues to captivate traders, as many await further clarity on whether it can sustain its gains or face renewed selling pressure.
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House on Jan. 20 could begin with a series of executive orders, some of which might significantly impact the cryptocurrency industry.
According to a Jan. 13 report by The Washington Post, Trump is expected to address crypto-related policies immediately after taking office.
These include measures targeting crypto de-banking and the repeal of a banking accounting rule that mandates banks holding cryptocurrencies to list them as liabilities.
“The Trump team has made it very clear that this is a priority,” a source involved in the discussions told the Post.
Critics of President Joe Biden’s administration have alleged that financial regulators were used to pressure banks into severing ties with the crypto industry, a move dubbed “Operation ChokePoint 2.0.”
Additionally, crypto leaders have been pushing back against the controversial SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB 121) issued in March 2022, which introduced the requirement to report crypto as a liability.
During the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump promised to make the United States a global “crypto capital,” reiterating his commitment to supporting the industry.
Reports from Reuters on Dec. 23 indicated that crypto industry advocates were urging Trump to issue executive orders on crypto during his first 100 days in office, with some expecting immediate action on his first day.
The Post also highlighted Trump’s plans to revoke Biden’s 2023 AI executive order, criticized by conservatives for emphasizing equity in AI operations.
David Sack, Trump’s crypto and AI advisor, reportedly discussed these plans during a luncheon with tech leaders and government officials in December.
Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen has also played a significant role in shaping Trump’s incoming administration.
Andreessen has been actively recruiting candidates for key positions, not only in technology but also in defense and intelligence roles.
Throughout his campaign, Trump consistently advocated for reduced regulatory scrutiny of the crypto sector and proposed establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Bitcoin’s current price of $90,000 is viewed as a “good entry point” for long-term investors, even with analysts warning it could dip below $70,000, according to Fundstrat Capital’s Chief Investment Officer, Tom Lee.
“I don’t think anyone is going to lose money buying here at $90,000. If they’re trying to time this, maybe they get lucky, and it goes to $70,000,” Lee said in a Jan. 13 interview with CNBC. He added that Bitcoin will likely be “one of the best-performing assets of the year.”
At the time of Lee’s comments, Bitcoin was trading at $91,662. While the asset is down 15% from its all-time high, Lee described the drop as a “pretty normal correction” for such a “hyper-volatile asset.” He emphasized, “We’re pretty early in this halving cycle, so to me, I think Bitcoin in the near term […] means you’re getting a big opportunity.”
Fundstrat predicts Bitcoin could dip to $70,000 or even as low as $50,000 before rebounding. “But that, again, is not a new level; it’s just where it touches before it begins to rally,” Lee noted.
Meanwhile, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, warned that Bitcoin could fall to $69,000 if resistance levels are breached, driven by the “high-inflation narrative.”
Lee identified Jan. 15 as a crucial date for Bitcoin, with Consumer Price Index inflation data set to influence the market. He advised investors to “ride out” any short-term volatility.
Despite current headwinds, including fears of Federal Reserve tightening and rising Treasury yields, asset managers like VanEck and Bitwise anticipate Bitcoin reaching $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025, particularly if the U.S. adopts a Bitcoin reserve.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $94,650, recovering 5.4% from a recent dip below $90,000, according to CoinGecko data.
Asset manager BlackRock has announced the launch of a new Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Cboe Canada, according to a Jan. 13 statement from the Canadian securities exchange.
The ETF, named iShares Bitcoin ETF, aims to provide Canadian investors with access to BlackRock’s flagship U.S. spot Bitcoin fund, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
Cboe Canada stated that the fund will allocate “all or substantially all of its assets” to IBIT.
The Canadian ETF will trade under the ticker IBIT, identical to its U.S. counterpart.
Additionally, shares denominated in U.S. dollars will be available under the ticker IBIT.U.
Helen Hayes, BlackRock’s head of iShares Canada, commented, “The iShares Fund provides Canadian investors with a […] way to gain exposure to bitcoin and helps remove the operational and custody complexities of holding bitcoin directly.”
This ETF joins a growing list of over a dozen Bitcoin ETFs already trading on Canadian exchanges, according to Nasdaq.
The IBIT.U shares will be listed in Canada but priced in U.S. dollars, as confirmed by Cboe Canada.
Growing Demand for Bitcoin ETFs
BlackRock’s U.S. IBIT ETF has rapidly become the most sought-after Bitcoin fund globally.
Since its January 2024 launch, the fund has recorded over $37 billion in net inflows, as reported by Farside Investors.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs collectively experienced more than $35 billion in net inflows throughout the year, equating to roughly $144 million daily.
This figure also accounts for $20 billion in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a fund launched in 2013 with higher management fees compared to newer options.
In November, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $100 billion in net assets for the first time, Bloomberg Intelligence reported.
JPMorgan noted in December that Bitcoin is becoming a key portfolio component for investors seeking to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.
Sygnum Bank suggested that surging institutional inflows in 2025 could create demand shocks, driving Bitcoin prices higher.
Crypto markets are in the “Banana Zone” and heading toward a “Banana Singularity,” a phase where “everything goes up,” according to Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal.
The “Banana Zone,” coined by Pal, refers to periods of significant upward price movement.
“Yes, we are still in the Banana Zone,” Pal said on X on Jan. 10, adding that the first phase of this bull market began with a breakout in November last year.
This phase was followed by consolidation, similar to the 2016–2017 cycle, which Pal noted “won’t last long.”
Pal predicted the next stage, the “Banana Singularity,” as an altcoin season “when everything goes up, followed by a bigger consolidation.”
Altcoin seasons typically follow declines in Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, which currently remains high at 58%, per TradingView.
DeFi researcher 0xNobler appeared to agree with Pal, writing on X that “Bitcoin just entered the acceleration phase” and forecasting a dramatic rise to $500,000, which could “ignite the biggest altseason in history.”
Futures trader CoinMamba, however, offered a more skeptical take, saying, “This sell-off is so bad that we will have an altseason just by prices going back to what it was one week ago.”
Pal described the third and final phase of the Banana Zone as the “concentration phase,” where “core winners explode on to make much higher highs.”
Despite recent corrections, crypto markets have risen 90% year-over-year in total market capitalization, growing from $1.8 trillion to $3.4 trillion after most of 2024 was spent consolidating.
Total market capitalization reached an all-time high of $3.9 trillion on Dec. 17, marking a 27% increase over the previous cycle’s peak.
Establishing a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve in the United States could drive Bitcoin adoption more significantly than the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024, cryptocurrency researcher CoinShares stated in a Jan. 10 blog post.
The Bitcoin Act, proposed in 2024, directs the U.S. Treasury Department to create a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” by purchasing 1 million BTC over five years.
President-elect Donald Trump has endorsed the plan, although it has yet to become law.
“We believe that the enactment of the Bitcoin Act in the United States would have a more profound long-term impact on Bitcoin than the launch of ETFs,” CoinShares wrote.
The research highlighted that Bitcoin’s “credibility” as an asset class remains a key hurdle for institutional adoption.
Passing the Bitcoin Act would reduce this stigma by granting Bitcoin the “endorsement of the world’s largest government,” the post noted.
Institutional Momentum
Introduced by U.S. Senator Cynthia Loomis in July, the Bitcoin Act has gained traction following November’s U.S. elections, where Trump’s Republican Party took control of the Senate.
Several states, including New Hampshire and North Dakota, have also proposed bills to establish Bitcoin reserves.
These efforts align with the January 2024 approval of nearly a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs, which reached $100 billion in net assets by November, per Bloomberg Intelligence.
Crypto analysts at Steno Research project additional ETF inflows of $48 billion in 2025.
Such institutional activity could create significant “demand shocks,” potentially driving Bitcoin prices higher, Sygnum Bank suggested in December.
Passing the Bitcoin Act would amplify this effect, pushing BTC prices past $1 million per coin, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back.
“Combined with other governments following suit, such a development could catalyze a much larger flow of assets into Bitcoin in the years to come,” CoinShares concluded.
A Bitcoin analyst has cautioned crypto market participants to remain vigilant in the coming months, citing expectations of continued profit-taking.
“Risk is peaking for the first time in this cycle, and there’s a ton of profit in coins that have been selling and plenty more profit-taking to go before we are properly reset,” Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo stated in a Jan. 10 X post.
Willy Woo Recommends Caution
Woo emphasized that while Bitcoin sentiment “seems uber bullish,” a more “cautious approach” is warranted in the short term.
His Bitcoin local risk model, which tracks risk levels, shows metrics not seen since January 2023.
The overall market sentiment remains in the “Greed” zone, according to the Fear and Greed Index, which recorded a score of 69 on Jan. 10—an increase from the “Neutral” score of 50.
Bitcoin has struggled to regain the $100,000 psychological level since retracing on Jan. 8 and is currently trading at $94,120, down 3.92% over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.
Diverging Views on Bitcoin’s Path Forward
Other analysts offer a more optimistic perspective.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin’s 15% pullback from its Dec. 17 all-time high of $108,000 mirrors historical patterns observed in prior cycles.
“The timing of this retrace is in line with historical tendencies,” Rekt said, adding that the current situation has a “high probability of reversal.”
Similarly, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow highlighted the influence of macroeconomic factors, suggesting that dips are “manufactured to lower the Bitcoin price for the big players.”
“If you understand the macro landscape, you understand that all dips are fake now,” Mow told his 327,000 X followers.
Despite mixed outlooks, market participants remain watchful for further developments.
Bitcoin (BTC) encountered renewed turbulence on Jan. 10 as US macroeconomic data dampened expectations of significant crypto capital inflows.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping $1,500 after December nonfarm payrolls (NFP) exceeded forecasts.
The stronger-than-expected labor market data, coupled with lower unemployment figures, put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Markets interpreted the results as reducing the likelihood of significant Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the near future.
With less aggressive rate cuts anticipated, the potential for increased liquidity flowing into Bitcoin and other crypto assets diminished.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of even a modest 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s January meeting stood at just 2.7%.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, commented on the market reaction, stating: “NFP comes in HOT, the UNRATE comes in cold, which is great news for the strength of the economy, so why did BTC and the broader market dump? Simple. This points to fewer FED Rate Cuts in 2025.”
Alan also noted the seasonal impact on the data and speculated that the incoming Trump administration might enact policies with significant economic implications.
Liquidity data on Binance highlighted $88,000 and $90,000 as key support zones for BTC/USDT.
Despite the macroeconomic dip, BTC maintained a familiar trading range, with clear support and resistance levels visible.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades advised: “Market is either up only or down only on these smaller timeframes. In the end, many get chopped up. Zooming out is my recommendation.”
Analyst Rekt Capital offered a bullish outlook, pointing to a bullish divergence in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) and highlighting historical patterns in price discovery corrections.
“It is the first Price Discovery Correction of this cycle. As a result, it has a high probability of reversal,” Rekt Capital concluded.