Bitcoin (BTC) maintained pressure on a key resistance level during the Jan. 3 Wall Street open, with concerns of a potential price dip lingering.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading above $97,000 as the U.S. session began.
Following a rapid start to the new year and a retest of $96,000 as support, Bitcoin aimed to reclaim the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
At $96,740 at the time of writing, the 50-day SMA previously acted as support for over two months before being lost in late December.
“Nice follow-through on the falling wedge breakout,” trading account SuperBro noted on X.
“Careful not to get aggressive with longs into potential resistance, now we need to reclaim the 20 and 50 SMA and flip these back to support.”
Other analysts anticipated that the trendline could regain its role as support, potentially fueling a continued bull run after last month’s cooldown.
On shorter timeframes, however, trader Roman advised caution.
“I think some of you are getting excited a bit too early,” he commented, analyzing four-hour charts.
“We’ve got a low-volume pump with maxed stoch RSI. Generally means we come down a bit.”
The stochastic relative strength index (RSI) exceeded the overbought 70 threshold, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart as a critical resistance level, with the 200-period EMA providing support.
“Trading right around the high volume node. Meaning, most volume traded between these prices,” Daan explained on X.
“Price moves easier when it breaks away from such a high volume area. The 4H 200MA is guarding the top side. I want to see this break above $98K+ to get the party started and start the run back to all-time highs. $95K is an important level to hold in the short term.”
As the 119th session of the United States Congress approached, Representative Mike Collins of Georgia filed a financial disclosure on New Year’s Day revealing exposure to cryptocurrency.
In a report submitted to the U.S. House of Representatives on Jan. 1, Collins disclosed purchasing between $1,001 and $15,000 of Ski Mask Dog (SKI), a token launched in May 2024.
The report, along with one filed in December, showed that Collins made three separate purchases of SKI, each up to $15,000, between Dec. 1 and Dec. 3.
These transactions occurred roughly a month after the U.S. election, during a period when many cryptocurrency prices were surging.
Collins, a Republican who represents Georgia’s 10th congressional district, won reelection in November with more than 63% of the vote against Democratic candidate Lexy Doherty.
Although it is unclear if his investment in SKI is tied to his election victory, Collins has previously disclosed holdings in Ether (ETH), Velodrome (VELO), Aerodrome Finance (AERO), and The Graph (GRT).
Under the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, U.S. lawmakers must disclose their stock and cryptocurrency transactions.
As of Jan. 3, Collins appeared to be the first member of Congress to file a financial disclosure report in 2025.
The price of SKI was under $0.01 before the U.S. elections on Nov. 5.
It surged to an all-time high of over $0.35 on Dec. 5 before dropping to around $0.25 at the time of publication.
Some lawmakers, like Senators Ted Cruz and Cynthia Lummis, have also disclosed crypto investments, though Collins has not made digital assets a central focus of his policy agenda.
He has supported legislation praised by the crypto industry, including the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act.
Critics of current disclosure policies, however, argue that lawmakers’ investments present potential conflicts of interest.
A bipartisan group of senators has called for amending the STOCK Act to ban stock trading by members of Congress, though it remains unclear if similar measures will be taken in the upcoming session.
Bitcoin (BTC) maintained pressure on a key resistance level during the Jan. 3 Wall Street open, with concerns of a potential price dip lingering.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading above $97,000 as the U.S. session began.
Following a rapid start to the new year and a retest of $96,000 as support, Bitcoin aimed to reclaim the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
At $96,740 at the time of writing, the 50-day SMA previously acted as support for over two months before being lost in late December.
“Nice follow-through on the falling wedge breakout,” trading account SuperBro noted on X.
“Careful not to get aggressive with longs into potential resistance, now we need to reclaim the 20 and 50 SMA and flip these back to support.”
Other analysts anticipated that the trendline could regain its role as support, potentially fueling a continued bull run after last month’s cooldown.
On shorter timeframes, however, trader Roman advised caution.
“I think some of you are getting excited a bit too early,” he commented, analyzing four-hour charts.
“We’ve got a low-volume pump with maxed stoch RSI. Generally means we come down a bit.”
The stochastic relative strength index (RSI) exceeded the overbought 70 threshold, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart as a critical resistance level, with the 200-period EMA providing support.
“Trading right around the high volume node. Meaning, most volume traded between these prices,” Daan explained on X.
“Price moves easier when it breaks away from such a high volume area. The 4H 200MA is guarding the top side. I want to see this break above $98K+ to get the party started and start the run back to all-time highs. $95K is an important level to hold in the short term.”
Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory on Jan. 2, climbing to $95,880 ahead of the first Wall Street open of 2025.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 1.5% on the day, recovering from earlier dips to monthly lows.
“Christmas Range has swept both sides for liquidity now,” trader Daan Crypto Trades observed, adding that the $95.8K mid-range level had acted as resistance during recent tests.
Accompanying charts highlighted increased trading volume at the range lows, which some traders saw as a bullish signal.
Daan Crypto Trades advised keeping an eye on range breakouts to anticipate Bitcoin’s movement over the next couple of weeks.
Similarly, trader Jelle noted parallels between this year’s price action and last year’s, suggesting a potential upside resolution.
“The similarities are there, with or without another sweep of the lows,” Jelle commented, forecasting a breakout to $130,000–$150,000.
Entrepreneur Jason Williams shared a comparable outlook, describing the current price range as an accumulation zone.
“$BTC has re-entered the accumulation zone,” Williams posted on X, predicting, “$131.5K+ by Q1 2025 feels inevitable. See you there.”
His chart compared the current range to Bitcoin’s behavior after reaching all-time highs in March last year, which eventually led to a significant breakout after several months of consolidation.
Market sentiment has turned bullish amid optimism about the return of traditional finance traders.
Cole Kennelly, founder of crypto volatility index service Volmex, forecasted a renewed push for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
“My gut tells me the market goes full risk-on and a lot of money piles into crypto, now that end-of-year logistics/rebalancing/etc. is over,” Kennelly stated, anticipating a strong start to the year.
The broader crypto market appears poised for a liquidity boost as traders look to capitalize on Bitcoin’s growing momentum.
United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approaching a major milestone after record-breaking growth in 2024 as Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 price level.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs are now just 2.2%, or $2.2 billion, away from surpassing $110 billion in cumulative holdings, representing over 5.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply, according to Dune data.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, leads the US Bitcoin ETF market.
Its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF holds over 542,000 BTC, valued at $51.5 billion, which accounts for 47.9% of the market share among all US Bitcoin ETFs.
This positions BlackRock’s fund as the 34th largest ETF globally, spanning both cryptocurrency and traditional financial products, as per ETF Database.
The ETFs have been instrumental in Bitcoin’s rally toward $100,000.
US spot ETFs drove approximately 75% of new Bitcoin investments, propelling its price past the $50,000 mark by mid-February 2024.
Bitcoin to $200K in 2025?
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is expected to further institutional adoption in 2025 by simplifying access for large investors, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.
“The new ETF milestone and BlackRock’s growing fund could propel Bitcoin to $200,000 during 2025,” Lee told Cointelegraph.
“Long-term projections suggest sustained growth, with some forecasts placing Bitcoin’s value at $200,000 by 2025. However, the trajectory will be influenced by regulatory developments, market dynamics, and broader economic conditions,” he added.
Currently, Bitcoin must gain another 4.1% to reclaim the $100,000 psychological mark.
Bitcoin faces key resistance levels at $97,600 and $99,000.
A rally above $99,000 could liquidate over $1 billion worth of leveraged short positions, according to CoinGlass data.
Shares of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell over 8% following its latest $209 million Bitcoin purchase, sparking concerns among some observers about its “leveraged” strategy.
MicroStrategy announced the acquisition just an hour before Nasdaq trading began at 2:30 pm UTC.
Within the first hour, its shares dropped 5.3%, falling from $318.89 to $302.09.
While partially recovering during the session to close at $302.96, the stock declined another 3.19% in after-hours trading, settling at $293.59, according to Google Finance data.
Bitcoin Purchases and Stock Dilution
MicroStrategy funded the Bitcoin acquisition by selling 592,987 shares earlier that week, according to a regulatory filing.
This marked the eighth consecutive week the company bought Bitcoin, adding 194,180 BTC to its holdings since Oct. 31.
Concerns are growing about the company’s financial strategy, with The Kobeissi Letter noting in a Dec. 30 post on X that MicroStrategy’s plan to increase authorized shares by $10 billion has raised alarms.
The firm’s heavy reliance on convertible notes and debt issuances leaves it needing to issue more debt or equity to sustain its Bitcoin buying spree.
“The problem is, it has left the company in a ‘lose-lose’ situation for now,” Kobeissi added.
Market Reactions and Predictions
Despite a 20.18% decline in MSTR’s price over the past 30 days, the stock remains up 342.15% since Jan. 1.
Hartmann Capital founder Felix Hartmann suggested in a Dec. 30 post that MicroStrategy’s stock could “eventually implode,” though he acknowledged the possibility of significant short-term gains.
Unchained head of market research Joe Burnett described the company’s strategy as “hyperbitcoinization,” highlighting its use of leverage to grow Bitcoin-per-share.
On Dec. 23, MicroStrategy was added to the Nasdaq-100 index, joining Palantir Technologies and Axon Enterprise as new additions to Nasdaq’s largest stocks by market capitalization.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $95,000 on Dec. 29, with order book liquidity “games” shaping market movements as the weekly close approached.
BTC Price Faces Key Resistance at $97,300
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin stuck in a tight range over the weekend after experiencing volatility during the final Wall Street trading session of the week.
With BTC/USD providing little bullish momentum, order book analysis left market observers cautious.
Material Indicators highlighted red flags on its trading tools, stating:
“FireCharts shows a new $86M bid ladder is pushing BTC price up from the lows, but a new (red) signal from the Trend Precognition A1 algo on the D chart… indicates that price isn’t likely to climb higher than yesterday’s high, at least not before today’s D candle close.”
It added, “A push above $97.3k would invalidate the new signal.”
Meanwhile, trader Skew noted shifting buy liquidity on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair, potentially signaling upside if the bids remain.
“I have been watching these limit bids throughout today, which have conveniently just moved higher towards price,” Skew commented, adding, “Often a signal for what’s to come as large market entities attempt to influence/control price.”
Q4 Performance Holds Strong for Bitcoin
Bitcoin remained down just 1.25% for December at $95,000 but retained a Q4 upside of over 50%, nearly matching its performance in 2023, according to CoinGlass data.
Despite predictions of potential new lows before a sustained bull run, experienced traders remained optimistic.
Trader Titan of Crypto shared a chart projecting Bitcoin’s “roadmap” for 2025.
The Wyckoff analysis suggests macro highs are still ahead before a distribution phase begins.
Bitcoin’s price dropped below the $94,000 mark on Dec. 29, down from its all-time high of approximately $108,000 reached on Dec. 17, 2024.
Data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin has declined 1.29% over the last 24 hours and 2.67% in the past week.
BTC is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and approaching its 50-day EMA, consolidating between $92,000 and $99,000 after November and December’s historic bull rally.
Despite this, Bitcoin remains above its 200-day EMA, a crucial support level, since October 2024. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42, signaling that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold.
Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio Drops, USDT Dominance Rises
The Bitcoin Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio, a metric that reflects market sentiment, currently stands at 0.92. A value below 1 suggests bears dominate the market, while a value above 1 indicates bullish control.
TradingView contributor “The ForexX Mindset” warned of a possible market dump that could push BTC’s price to around $81,500. The analyst pointed to rising USDT market dominance as a signal that investors are moving to safer assets.
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar echoed this sentiment, predicting a correction to $80,000 based on a classic head-and-shoulders chart pattern.
Perpetual Futures Funding Rates Remain Positive
Despite bearish on-chain signals, BTC perpetual futures funding rates remain positive, indicating long traders maintain control and are willing to pay short traders to hold their positions.
Long-Term Outlook Hinges on U.S. Policies
The long-term trajectory of Bitcoin’s price depends on the Trump administration’s regulatory approach and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in 2025.
Crypto mining firm Blockware has set a wide-ranging price forecast of $150,000–$400,000 for BTC in the new year, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding these factors.
Galaxy Digital’s research division predicts that the United States government will not purchase Bitcoin in 2025 but will safeguard its current holdings.
“The US government will not purchase Bitcoin in 2025,” stated Alex Thorn, Galaxy Research’s head of research, in a Dec. 27 report. Thorn noted that the government would instead maintain its Bitcoin reserves while discussions about a Bitcoin reserve policy continue.
Exploring a Bitcoin Reserve Policy
“There will be some movement within the departments and agencies to examine an expanded Bitcoin reserve policy,” Thorn said.
Currently, the US government holds 183,850 BTC, valued at approximately $17.36 billion, spread across various known addresses, according to Spot on Chain.
Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed the Bitcoin Act 2024, which, if enacted, would allow the US to include Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. This would involve purchasing 200,000 BTC annually for five years, accumulating 1 million Bitcoin to be held for at least 20 years.
Nation-State Competition for Bitcoin
Galaxy analyst “JW” predicted that up to five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation-states might add Bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds.
He suggested that increased US involvement in Bitcoin could trigger a competitive rush among nations to mine or acquire Bitcoin.
“Competition among nation states, particularly unaligned nations, those with large sovereign wealth funds, or even those adversarial to the United States, will drive the adoption of strategies to mine or otherwise acquire Bitcoin,” JW explained.
Global Perspectives on Bitcoin Reserves
On Dec. 26, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed uncertainty about the US and other countries adopting Bitcoin reserves, stating, “It is difficult for the government to express its views.”
Meanwhile, former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao suggested that China might adopt a strategic Bitcoin reserve. At the Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 9, Zhao said smaller countries would likely lead in adopting Bitcoin reserves, albeit at a gradual pace.
CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju believes that President-elect Donald Trump’s Bitcoin policies will likely depend on how the global investment community perceives the strength of the US economy and the dollar.
Ju explained that store-of-value assets like gold and Bitcoin tend to rise in price when investors feel US economic dominance is under threat. However, he noted that confidence in the US economy and the dollar remains strong, with many investors continuing to view the dollar as a safe haven currency.
This perception of strength, Ju argued, makes it unlikely that the Trump administration would adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Instead, Trump may prioritize policies that reinforce the dominance of the US dollar. Ju stated:
“Even before his inauguration, Trump consistently warned other world leaders of the power gap between the US and other nations. This rhetoric, combined with increased capital inflows to the dollar, could renew confidence in its supremacy.”
He added, “Around me, many Koreans are choosing US dollars as a safe haven over gold or Bitcoin, particularly as the Korean won weakens.” This trend is mirrored in emerging economies, where individuals increasingly use US dollar stablecoins to store value.
Stablecoins Boost US Dollar Dominance
Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla recently told Cointelegraph at the Bitcoin MENA conference that stablecoins will be central to the blockchain economy. According to him, dollar-pegged stablecoins enhance the utility of the dollar by combining fiat currency stability with the speed and global reach of blockchain technology.
In countries like Turkey, where inflation hit 67% in March 2024, stablecoins have become vital. Turkey leads the world in stablecoin purchases as a percentage of GDP. Similarly, a 2023 Chainalysis report revealed that over 50% of digital assets sent to countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico were stablecoins.