A 40% chance of a recession looms over the U.S. in 2025, with trade war fears and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty fueling the risk. According to Nic Puckrin, the founder of Coin Bureau, while a recession isn’t certain, the economic environment could harm risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Puckrin remarked:
“Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot.”
Impact of Trump Administration’s Economic Policies
Puckrin also explained that while Trump is not intentionally pushing for a recession, policies such as job cuts and budget balancing could trigger an economic slowdown. This uncertainty has contributed to a decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors look to European markets for better opportunities.
Crypto Markets Struggle Amid Trade War
The U.S. trade war, particularly with China, has already impacted cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin dropping significantly. Fears of prolonged tariffs have caused market sentiment to shift into extreme fear, though some analysts believe there could be a potential recovery if the situation stabilizes.
Signs of Potential Recovery
Markus Thielen of 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may have reached a price bottom in March 2025, with the potential for a reversal if Trump softens his stance on tariffs.
US President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to meet El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele at the White House next month. Bloomberg sources indicate that the two leaders, both known for their pro-Bitcoin stance, have maintained communication since Trump’s inauguration.
The relationship between the two was solidified early on, with Trump and Bukele discussing cooperation on tackling illegal immigration and transnational gangs, including Tren de Aragua, shortly after Trump took office. If the meeting takes place, Bukele will become the first leader from the Western Hemisphere to receive an official invitation under Trump’s presidency.
Focus on Bitcoin and Technology
Bukele has been actively engaged in discussions related to Bitcoin and technological investments. In February, he met with Michael Saylor, Strategy’s Executive Chairman, to discuss Bitcoin-related matters. Additionally, he hosted venture capitalists Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen in El Salvador, with talks centered around artificial intelligence and technology investments aimed at positioning El Salvador as a key regional tech hub.
Bitcoin’s Role in the Meeting
Speculation is growing that Bitcoin could be a central topic in the upcoming meeting. Bukele has been vocal about the potential impact of Trump’s presidency on the cryptocurrency market. In a January press conference, he shared his optimism about Bitcoin’s future under Trump’s leadership.
“I believe, personally, that this year, and the years ahead, will be very important for Bitcoin and for the entire ecosystem, especially with Trump’s assumption of power,” Bukele said.
El Salvador made history in 2021 by becoming the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender alongside the US dollar. The country currently holds 6,129 BTC in reserves, valued at approximately $514 million, according to Arkham data.
Trump’s administration has already taken steps towards integrating Bitcoin into the US financial landscape. On March 6, he signed an executive order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, funded through federal-owned Bitcoin. The administration aims to expand the nation’s Bitcoin holdings without additional taxpayer expenses.
As the details of the White House meeting continue to be finalized, it remains to be seen whether cryptocurrency policy will take center stage in the discussions between Trump and Bukele.
A crypto wallet associated with the US government transferred over $8 million worth of Bitcoin, following an executive order by President Donald Trump to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This move has drawn significant attention from the crypto community as authorities continue to manage seized digital assets.
The transaction, identified by blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, involved assets previously confiscated from a Binance account linked to Wanpadet Sae-Heng of Thailand. The seized holdings included 97 Bitcoin, along with other digital currencies such as Dogecoin, Ethereum, and Cardano. Sae-Heng was reportedly involved in a large-scale “pig butchering” investment fraud scheme, leading to the confiscation of these assets.
Details of the Bitcoin Movement
The recent transaction split the assets between two different wallet addresses. A small portion, valued at approximately $10 in Bitcoin, was sent to one address, while the bulk of the funds were directed to another. The purpose behind this division remains unclear, leaving analysts speculating about potential government strategies for handling digital assets.
This marks the first major Bitcoin transaction by US authorities since December, when nearly $1.9 billion worth of Bitcoin was moved to Coinbase Prime. The timing of the latest transfer coincides with Trump’s new directive, raising questions about whether it was related to the formation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The US Government’s Expanding Bitcoin Holdings
Currently, the US government possesses approximately 198,012 BTC, valued at around $17 billion based on current market prices. This figure reflects substantial past transactions, as officials have regularly seized and sold Bitcoin linked to criminal activities.
Bo Hines, Trump’s top cryptocurrency advisor, stated that the government once held nearly 400,000 Bitcoin but sold almost half for under $1 billion—assets that would now be worth over $17 billion. This past liquidation has sparked criticism, with many arguing that the US missed a significant financial opportunity.
David Sacks, Trump’s AI and crypto czar, echoed these concerns, stating that had the government retained approximately 195,000 Bitcoin seized over the past decade, it could have gained an additional $17 billion in value. This has led to renewed scrutiny over how the US Marshals Service, which oversees asset management, has handled digital currency reserves.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Initiative
Under Trump’s executive order, signed on March 6, all seized Bitcoin will now be funneled into the newly established Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Unlike previous government sales of digital assets, this reserve aims to maintain Bitcoin as a long-term national asset rather than liquidating holdings for immediate revenue.
The order mandates a full review of federal digital asset holdings within 30 days and grants the Treasury Secretary authority to manage the US Digital Asset Stockpile. Additionally, both the Treasury and Commerce Secretaries have been directed to explore budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin, ensuring the reserve expands without additional taxpayer costs.
This policy shift represents a stark contrast to previous US government approaches toward Bitcoin, potentially signaling a move toward deeper integration of digital assets into national financial strategies. As the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve takes shape, further transfers and acquisitions may follow, solidifying the government’s role in the cryptocurrency space.
Bitcoin’s recent rally to $88,500 has reignited enthusiasm among retail traders. However, blockchain analysis firm Santiment warns that social media sentiment could signal the need for caution.
Market Turbulence and Recovery
The cryptocurrency market faced significant turbulence in late February and early March, with Bitcoin plunging to $78,000 twice. Several factors contributed to this decline, including macroeconomic concerns, President Trump’s economic policies, and newly imposed tariffs.
The Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy further exacerbated market anxieties. Fears of rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes pushed investors toward safer assets, reducing the appeal of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
During the same period, gold emerged as a preferred hedge, reaching record highs. The precious metal climbed to $3,057 per ounce in March 2025, following a peak of $2,956 in February. As gold gained traction, Bitcoin suffered from declining investor confidence.
Despite this downturn, Bitcoin staged a strong recovery in the second half of March, climbing back to $88,500. This resurgence shifted market sentiment from fear to mild greed, according to Santiment’s analysis.
Bullish and Bearish Predictions Flood Social Media
With Bitcoin’s rally, optimism has surged across social media platforms. Santiment reports that bullish predictions now dominate discussions, with forecasts ranging between $100,000 and $159,000. Conversely, bearish outlooks suggest prices could drop as low as $10,000, with more conservative estimates landing between $69,000 and $78,000.
However, historical patterns indicate that extreme optimism among retail investors often precedes market corrections. Santiment cautions that when a majority of traders expect Bitcoin to skyrocket, the likelihood of a downturn increases. Conversely, when negativity dominates discussions, markets often experience a rebound.
Warnings Against Overconfidence
Santiment emphasizes the importance of exercising caution during periods of heightened market sentiment. The firm warns that phrases like “to the moon” and “lambo time” flooding social media may indicate an impending price correction.
“When you see ‘crypto is dead’ or ‘Bitcoin is a scam,’ this should be music to your ears,” Santiment noted, reinforcing the idea that pessimism often signals buying opportunities.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $87,200, reflecting a 6% gain over the past week, according to CoinGecko data.
Expert Forecasts on Bitcoin’s Future
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. He predicts that the cryptocurrency could surpass $110,000, driven by the Federal Reserve’s anticipated shift from quantitative tightening to easing. A looser monetary policy could inject more liquidity into financial markets, benefiting Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, supports this perspective but remains cautious about the immediate future. While he acknowledges that easing measures and softened tariff policies could help Bitcoin maintain its upward momentum, he believes that a major catalyst for a dramatic price surge is currently lacking.
As Bitcoin continues to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, traders should remain vigilant and avoid being swayed solely by social media sentiment. While the long-term outlook remains bullish for many analysts, past trends suggest that extreme optimism can often lead to market corrections.
Over 27,740 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $2.4 billion, were withdrawn from exchanges on March 25, marking the highest daily outflow since July 2024. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued attracting inflows, signaling renewed institutional interest.
Whale Activity and Market Sentiment
Analysis from Glassnode indicates that a significant portion of the withdrawals came from Bitcoin whales—holders of at least 1,000 BTC. On March 25 alone, these investors moved over 11,574 BTC (worth around $1 billion) off exchanges. This trend suggests accumulation and reduced selling pressure, which is often a bullish indicator for Bitcoin’s price.
Additionally, Arkham Intelligence reported that a “billionaire Bitcoin whale” added 2,400 BTC (worth over $200 million) on March 24. Despite some February sell-offs, this investor now holds over 15,000 BTC, hinting at strategic buying amid price dips.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Continuous Inflows
Another bullish sign is the steady inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since March 14, these funds have recorded eight consecutive days of inflows, totaling nearly $900 million. Market data provider Santiment noted that this is the longest streak of inflows seen in 2025.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price remains in a crucial technical zone. Trading at $88,265, BTC faces resistance at the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $88,682. Analysts highlight the importance of this level, as historical breakouts above the 20-week EMA have preceded major price surges.
Global asset management giant BlackRock has launched a new Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe, marking its first crypto-linked offering outside North America. This move follows the success of its US-listed iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has accumulated $50.6 billion in assets under management.
According to Bloomberg, the new iShares Bitcoin ETP will trade under the ticker IB1T on Xetra and Euronext Paris, while it will be listed as BTCN on Euronext Amsterdam.
Competitive Pricing and Market Expansion
To attract investors, BlackRock has introduced a temporary fee waiver of 10 basis points, reducing the fund’s expense ratio to 0.15% until the end of the year. The expansion into Europe is driven by increasing retail and institutional demand, according to Manuela Sperandeo, BlackRock’s head of iShares Product for Europe and the Middle East.
While Europe already has over 160 crypto ETPs, the market remains smaller than in the US. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that despite their recent introduction, US spot Bitcoin ETFs control around 91% of the global market due to lower costs and higher liquidity.
Market Potential and Investor Sentiment
If BlackRock can replicate its US success in Europe, significant market growth is possible. However, Balchunas highlighted that European investors tend to have lower risk tolerance than their counterparts in the US and certain parts of Asia.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum continues, with analysts forecasting a new all-time high of $110,000. The cryptocurrency has been climbing steadily, closing above $86,000 on March 23, fueling optimism among investors.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin will reach $110,000 before experiencing any major pullback, citing shifts in U.S. monetary policy. “I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k,” he wrote on X. “The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries.”
Market Conditions Favor Further Gains
The Federal Reserve’s slowing of quantitative tightening (QT) has led to expectations of a liquidity boost, a historically bullish sign for Bitcoin. However, some analysts argue that QT is not completely over, pointing to ongoing mortgage-backed securities reductions.
Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests that a rally could follow, similar to its 1,000% surge during the 2020 QE period. Emmanuel Cardozo, an analyst at Brikken, supports this outlook, citing global liquidity increases and discussions around a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve.
While the path to $110,000 remains promising, some analysts caution that a correction to $76,500 could still occur due to profit-taking or unexpected market shifts. Nonetheless, market sentiment remains largely positive.
In a significant step toward reshaping U.S. crypto policy, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crypto task force held its first public roundtable, signaling a potential shift in regulatory strategy under President Trump’s administration.
New Era for Crypto Oversight
The meeting was led by Republican SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who acknowledged the broader shift underway. “Spring signifies new beginnings and we have a new beginning here, a restart of the commission’s approach to crypto regulation,” Peirce said.
This marks a departure from the more aggressive stance taken by the SEC under President Biden, which saw legal actions against major crypto firms like Coinbase and Kraken. Trump, who campaigned on being a “crypto president,” has pledged to reverse such crackdowns and foster a more supportive regulatory environment.
Roundtable Features Diverse Industry Voices
The roundtable featured influential voices from both the private and public sectors, including John Reed Stark, former chief of the SEC’s Office of Internet Enforcement; Miles Jennings, general counsel at a16z crypto; and former SEC Commissioner Troy Paredes.
The task force discussed the applicability of traditional securities laws to digital assets and whether crypto tokens merit their own regulatory category. Jennings advocated for a balanced approach, stating that the SEC should remain “technology-neutral.” He explained, “Looking at what differentiates a system like ethereum from ownership of equity in Apple opens new tab.”
Debate on Tailored Crypto Regulations
While many in the industry view crypto tokens as commodities, the SEC still treats some as securities, requiring them to adhere to strict registration and disclosure rules. The task force explored whether an entirely new framework would better serve the rapidly evolving digital asset space.
However, not everyone welcomed the idea of loosening regulations. Democratic Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw warned against making exceptions for crypto. “Modifying the law to facilitate the success of a chosen product category is fraught with risk. Risk not only of weakening regulatory protections for that category, but of creating the negative domino effect on other areas of the market protected by the same laws,” she said.
Trump Administration’s Broader Crypto Agenda
The task force’s meeting follows President Trump’s broader push to integrate crypto into national policy. Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic crypto reserve and hosted a summit for blockchain and digital asset leaders at the White House.
These moves indicate a fundamental shift in how the federal government perceives and plans to engage with the digital asset sector. With the SEC reevaluating its stance and the administration pushing for innovation, the coming months are likely to redefine the U.S. regulatory landscape for crypto.
The US government is open to considering unconventional financial strategies as cryptocurrency gains further legitimacy at the highest levels of power. Bo Hines, head of Trump’s Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, recently suggested that the administration is willing to explore the idea of swapping some of the nation’s gold reserves at Fort Knox for Bitcoin — provided it remains budget-neutral.
Hines Open to Exploring New Avenues
In a FOX Business interview, Hines emphasized the openness of the current administration to fresh ideas.
“If it’s budget neutral and doesn’t cost a taxpayer a dime, you’re kind of exchanging one for the other,” he said, when asked about the possibility of trading US gold reserves for Bitcoin.
While nothing is set in stone, Hines stressed that the working group is in an exploratory phase. Rather than pushing a fixed plan, the Council aims to hear diverse perspectives and consider a wide range of “creative ideas.”
Expanding the Crypto Ecosystem
Hines also addressed the scope of crypto assets being considered by the administration. While President Trump previously mentioned Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano in his national crypto reserve announcement, Hines made it clear that the administration is not limiting itself to these four.
“These were highlighted because of their market cap dominance,” he said, echoing earlier remarks by entrepreneur David Sacks. But innovation across various blockchains remains a priority.
Lummis Pushes for Bitcoin Reserve Strategy
Senator Cynthia Lummis has long been an advocate for integrating Bitcoin into the national asset portfolio. Her earlier proposal, the BITCOIN Act, called for acquiring 1 million Bitcoin — around 5% of the current supply — by selling off Federal Reserve gold certificates.
“We already have the financial assets in the form of gold certificates to convert to Bitcoin,” Lummis said in a Bloomberg interview last year. “So the effect on the US balance sheet is pretty neutral.”
Although her 2023–24 proposal stalled in Congress, Lummis recently reintroduced a new version of the bill (S.954) at a crypto policy conference. The goal remains the same: transform a portion of America’s traditional gold holdings into a modern Bitcoin reserve.
An Unconventional but Growing Movement
While far from mainstream, the concept of a national Bitcoin reserve is slowly gaining traction among some US lawmakers and advisers. The idea of selling off legacy assets like gold to invest in digital currencies reflects a broader push for modernization in financial policy.
The debate over whether Bitcoin can or should become part of America’s official reserves is far from settled, but one thing is clear — it’s no longer being dismissed outright.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy is continuing its bold foray into the cryptocurrency world with a major financial move designed to ramp up its Bitcoin accumulation. On Friday, the firm revealed it expects to raise approximately $711 million in net proceeds from a newly launched preferred stock offering.
An Expanded Offering Amid Surging Demand
The offering, labeled as “Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock” (STRF), has been expanded from an initial 5 million to 8.5 million shares due to overwhelming demand. Each share is priced at $85, with a cumulative fixed dividend rate of 10% annually, based on a stated amount of $100 per share.
Several major financial institutions are involved in the offering. Morgan Stanley, Barclays Capital, Citigroup Global Markets, and Moelis & Company are acting as joint book-running managers. AmeriVet Securities, Bancroft Capital, BTIG, and The Benchmark Company are onboard as co-managers.
Flexible Redemption Rights and Liquidity Provisions
The stock comes with a $100 liquidation preference per share. This value is recalculated daily, factoring in market activity and other financial indicators. Strategy retains redemption rights for the shares, which can be exercised if the outstanding share count drops below 25% of the original issue or in certain tax-related scenarios. Additionally, holders can demand repurchase if a significant structural change affects the firm.
The 21/21 Plan: Strategy’s Bold Bitcoin Vision
This offering is a critical element in Strategy’s ambitious “21/21” plan, which aims to raise $42 billion—split evenly between equity and debt—over three years to aggressively expand its Bitcoin reserves. The plan was first introduced in Strategy’s Q3 2024 earnings report and is already halfway to its funding goal.
Since October 2024, Strategy has steadily grown its Bitcoin portfolio, now holding an impressive 246,000 BTC. The Tysons, Virginia-based company has raised billions through convertible senior notes and similar financial instruments, and now holds nearly 2.4% of the total Bitcoin supply.
This latest financial maneuver further cements Strategy’s position as one of the world’s largest corporate holders of Bitcoin and underscores its unwavering belief in the asset’s long-term value.