Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $95,000 on Dec. 29, with order book liquidity “games” shaping market movements as the weekly close approached.
BTC Price Faces Key Resistance at $97,300
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin stuck in a tight range over the weekend after experiencing volatility during the final Wall Street trading session of the week.
With BTC/USD providing little bullish momentum, order book analysis left market observers cautious.
Material Indicators highlighted red flags on its trading tools, stating:
“FireCharts shows a new $86M bid ladder is pushing BTC price up from the lows, but a new (red) signal from the Trend Precognition A1 algo on the D chart… indicates that price isn’t likely to climb higher than yesterday’s high, at least not before today’s D candle close.”
It added, “A push above $97.3k would invalidate the new signal.”
Meanwhile, trader Skew noted shifting buy liquidity on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair, potentially signaling upside if the bids remain.
“I have been watching these limit bids throughout today, which have conveniently just moved higher towards price,” Skew commented, adding, “Often a signal for what’s to come as large market entities attempt to influence/control price.”
Q4 Performance Holds Strong for Bitcoin
Bitcoin remained down just 1.25% for December at $95,000 but retained a Q4 upside of over 50%, nearly matching its performance in 2023, according to CoinGlass data.
Despite predictions of potential new lows before a sustained bull run, experienced traders remained optimistic.
Trader Titan of Crypto shared a chart projecting Bitcoin’s “roadmap” for 2025.
The Wyckoff analysis suggests macro highs are still ahead before a distribution phase begins.
Bitcoin’s price dropped below the $94,000 mark on Dec. 29, down from its all-time high of approximately $108,000 reached on Dec. 17, 2024.
Data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin has declined 1.29% over the last 24 hours and 2.67% in the past week.
BTC is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and approaching its 50-day EMA, consolidating between $92,000 and $99,000 after November and December’s historic bull rally.
Despite this, Bitcoin remains above its 200-day EMA, a crucial support level, since October 2024. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42, signaling that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold.
Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio Drops, USDT Dominance Rises
The Bitcoin Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio, a metric that reflects market sentiment, currently stands at 0.92. A value below 1 suggests bears dominate the market, while a value above 1 indicates bullish control.
TradingView contributor “The ForexX Mindset” warned of a possible market dump that could push BTC’s price to around $81,500. The analyst pointed to rising USDT market dominance as a signal that investors are moving to safer assets.
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar echoed this sentiment, predicting a correction to $80,000 based on a classic head-and-shoulders chart pattern.
Perpetual Futures Funding Rates Remain Positive
Despite bearish on-chain signals, BTC perpetual futures funding rates remain positive, indicating long traders maintain control and are willing to pay short traders to hold their positions.
Long-Term Outlook Hinges on U.S. Policies
The long-term trajectory of Bitcoin’s price depends on the Trump administration’s regulatory approach and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in 2025.
Crypto mining firm Blockware has set a wide-ranging price forecast of $150,000–$400,000 for BTC in the new year, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding these factors.
Galaxy Digital’s research division predicts that the United States government will not purchase Bitcoin in 2025 but will safeguard its current holdings.
“The US government will not purchase Bitcoin in 2025,” stated Alex Thorn, Galaxy Research’s head of research, in a Dec. 27 report. Thorn noted that the government would instead maintain its Bitcoin reserves while discussions about a Bitcoin reserve policy continue.
Exploring a Bitcoin Reserve Policy
“There will be some movement within the departments and agencies to examine an expanded Bitcoin reserve policy,” Thorn said.
Currently, the US government holds 183,850 BTC, valued at approximately $17.36 billion, spread across various known addresses, according to Spot on Chain.
Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed the Bitcoin Act 2024, which, if enacted, would allow the US to include Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. This would involve purchasing 200,000 BTC annually for five years, accumulating 1 million Bitcoin to be held for at least 20 years.
Nation-State Competition for Bitcoin
Galaxy analyst “JW” predicted that up to five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation-states might add Bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds.
He suggested that increased US involvement in Bitcoin could trigger a competitive rush among nations to mine or acquire Bitcoin.
“Competition among nation states, particularly unaligned nations, those with large sovereign wealth funds, or even those adversarial to the United States, will drive the adoption of strategies to mine or otherwise acquire Bitcoin,” JW explained.
Global Perspectives on Bitcoin Reserves
On Dec. 26, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed uncertainty about the US and other countries adopting Bitcoin reserves, stating, “It is difficult for the government to express its views.”
Meanwhile, former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao suggested that China might adopt a strategic Bitcoin reserve. At the Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 9, Zhao said smaller countries would likely lead in adopting Bitcoin reserves, albeit at a gradual pace.
CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju believes that President-elect Donald Trump’s Bitcoin policies will likely depend on how the global investment community perceives the strength of the US economy and the dollar.
Ju explained that store-of-value assets like gold and Bitcoin tend to rise in price when investors feel US economic dominance is under threat. However, he noted that confidence in the US economy and the dollar remains strong, with many investors continuing to view the dollar as a safe haven currency.
This perception of strength, Ju argued, makes it unlikely that the Trump administration would adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Instead, Trump may prioritize policies that reinforce the dominance of the US dollar. Ju stated:
“Even before his inauguration, Trump consistently warned other world leaders of the power gap between the US and other nations. This rhetoric, combined with increased capital inflows to the dollar, could renew confidence in its supremacy.”
He added, “Around me, many Koreans are choosing US dollars as a safe haven over gold or Bitcoin, particularly as the Korean won weakens.” This trend is mirrored in emerging economies, where individuals increasingly use US dollar stablecoins to store value.
Stablecoins Boost US Dollar Dominance
Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla recently told Cointelegraph at the Bitcoin MENA conference that stablecoins will be central to the blockchain economy. According to him, dollar-pegged stablecoins enhance the utility of the dollar by combining fiat currency stability with the speed and global reach of blockchain technology.
In countries like Turkey, where inflation hit 67% in March 2024, stablecoins have become vital. Turkey leads the world in stablecoin purchases as a percentage of GDP. Similarly, a 2023 Chainalysis report revealed that over 50% of digital assets sent to countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico were stablecoins.
El Salvador has become the sixth nation to hold over 6,000 Bitcoin (BTC), reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s role as a key treasury asset under President Nayib Bukele’s leadership.
On Dec. 29, El Salvador acquired an additional 1 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 6,000.77 Bitcoin, valued at $569.3 million, according to the National Bitcoin Office’s portfolio tracker.
This latest purchase reflects a gain of 108.02% on its Bitcoin investment, with an average acquisition price of $45,450 per BTC, as per the Nayib Bukele portfolio tracker.
The country made its first Bitcoin purchase of 200 BTC on Sept. 6, 2021, coinciding with its historic decision to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.
El Salvador Among Top Bitcoin-Holding Nations
With 6,000.77 BTC, El Salvador ranks sixth in Bitcoin holdings among nation-states, following the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Bhutan, according to BitBo’s Bitcoin Treasuries data.
Although El Salvador typically acquires one Bitcoin daily, it made significant purchases on Dec. 22 and one day after striking a $1.4 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This occurred despite the IMF urging the country to scale back its Bitcoin activities.
Stacy Herbert, Director of El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office, suggested in a Dec. 19 post on X that the country might accelerate its Bitcoin acquisitions.
A Bitcoin Office spokesperson confirmed to Cointelegraph that El Salvador has no plans to sell its holdings, emphasizing that “Bitcoin continues to be our main strategy.”
Chivo Wallet to Be Phased Out
However, Herbert noted that El Salvador’s Chivo wallet will “be sold or wound down,” with private-sector Bitcoin wallets expected to take over the role.
The IMF has yet to approve the $1.4 billion deal, which could conclude four years of negotiations complicated by Bukele’s Bitcoin policies, which the IMF has described as risky for the nation.
Bitcoin experienced notable price swings on Dec. 26, seemingly triggered by incorrect data on TradingView’s Bitcoin dominance chart.
False Data Sparks Market Turbulence
Cointelegraph Markets Pro recorded a sharp 4% drop in Bitcoin’s price, ending the calm trading environment of the Christmas period.
BTC/USD briefly fell toward $95,000 as a TradingView anomaly inaccurately indicated Bitcoin’s market dominance had plummeted to 0%.
The issue, since resolved, appeared to drive panic among traders.
“So there was a TradingView glitch surrounding $BTC dominance and this caused people to panic dump? People now dumping over TradingView?” trader Satoshi Flipper questioned on X.
Monitoring platform CoinGlass reported that approximately $33 million in BTC long positions were liquidated within a four-hour span.
Bitcoin Dominance Trends and Altcoin Outlook
Bitcoin’s market dominance has been a hot topic among traders.
Recent all-time highs for BTC have left altcoins struggling to keep pace.
Bitcoin dominance peaked at 61.5% in mid-November but has since declined, fueling speculation about an impending “altseason.”
“BTC Dominance reached 2021 breakdown level and rejected,” trading account Aqua noted on X.
“I think BTC Dominance peaked and ALTs will start outperforming $BTC in the coming months. Finally we will see true ALTs season soon.”
Trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe drew comparisons between current altcoin valuations and the Dotcom bubble of the early 2000s.
“The Altcoin valuation are still substantially low. The total market capitalization is barely $1.5T. The Dot.com bubble was $10-15T,” he stated, predicting a significant surge in altcoin values by 2025.
Optimism for Early 2025
Despite the temporary volatility, market sentiment remained optimistic.
Participants expect Bitcoin to make a substantial move in the first quarter of 2025, signaling continued confidence in its long-term trajectory.
Turkey unveiled new cryptocurrency regulations in late December 2024, drawing inspiration from global advancements, including Europe’s MiCA framework.
According to a Dec. 25 document published in the Official Gazette of the Republic of Turkey, users conducting transactions exceeding 15,000 Turkish lira ($425) will be required to share identifying information with crypto service providers.
The Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations aim to prevent illicit fund laundering and terrorism financing through cryptocurrency transactions.
However, crypto providers are not mandated to collect information for transactions below the $425 threshold.
These regulations align with a global push for stricter crypto oversight and precede Europe’s comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, which takes effect on Dec. 30.
New Rules Target “Risky” Crypto Transactions
Turkey’s regulations, effective Feb. 25, 2025, also require service providers to verify information from customers using unregistered wallet addresses.
Transfers without sufficient sender information may be flagged as “risky.”
The new law states:
“In case sufficient information cannot be obtained, the issues of not performing the transfer or limiting the transactions made with the financial institution in question or terminating the business relationship will be considered.”
As of September 2023, Turkey ranked as the fourth-largest crypto market globally, with an estimated trading volume of $170 billion, surpassing markets like Russia and Canada, according to Chainalysis.
Crypto Regulations Drive Activity in Turkey
In 2024, Turkish crypto firms ramped up activity, with 47 license applications submitted to the Turkish Capital Markets Board (CMB) by August.
This followed the July implementation of the “Law on Amendments to the Capital Markets Law,” which established a regulatory framework for crypto service providers.
While individuals can buy, hold, and trade crypto in Turkey, using it for payments has been banned since 2021.
Turkey is also considering a 0.03% transaction tax to support its national budget.
Bitcoin has gained 6.5% since its Dec. 23 low of $92,458 but failed to break the $98,000 resistance level.
This recovery follows a sharp 14.5% correction from its $108,275 all-time high on Dec. 17.
Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin derivatives maintained a neutral-to-bullish stance, supporting the potential for a rally above $105,000.
Derivatives Signal Market Optimism
Bitcoin futures monthly contracts are trading at a 12% premium over spot prices, signaling strong demand for leveraged long positions.
Premiums between 5% and 10% are considered neutral, making the current level robust.
Additionally, Bitcoin put (sell) options are at a 2% discount compared to call (buy) options.
When significant corrections are expected, this indicator typically exceeds 6%, showing a preference for puts.
Traditional Market Recovery Boosts Bitcoin
Traditional financial markets also supported Bitcoin’s recent rise above $98,000.
The S&P 500 index erased its monthly losses on Dec. 24, and the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.59%, up from 4.23% two weeks earlier.
Higher Treasury yields often reflect inflation expectations, making scarce assets like Bitcoin more attractive during economic uncertainty.
Economic Concerns and Stagnation Fears
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 index remains high at 64%, tying its performance to broader economic trends.
The US Federal Reserve has reduced its 2025 interest rate-cut projections from four to two, lowering the immediate risks to corporate earnings and real estate markets.
Margin and Derivatives Markets Stay Bullish
On OKX, the Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio is at 25x in favor of longs.
Excessive confidence typically pushes this ratio above 40x, while bearish sentiment sees it drop below 5x.
Despite record outflows from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF on Dec. 24, Bitcoin’s resilience at $92,458 reinforces optimism about reaching $105,000 and beyond.
Russia is actively experimenting with digital financial assets (DFAs) in foreign trade, as per its new legislation, a senior government official revealed.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov spoke about alternatives to the US dollar for international trade during an interview on Russia-24 on Dec. 25.
Siluanov highlighted that the government has authorized foreign trade transactions using DFAs and Bitcoin, adding that such methods are already in practice and set for expansion.
“We Can Use Mined Bitcoin”
Siluanov emphasized that adopting DFAs in foreign trade is a logical step under current circumstances, enabling the use of modern infrastructure.
He described this approach as an innovation in global settlement systems, stating, “That is the future.”
Russia is leveraging its experimental legal framework, effective since September 2024, to integrate DFAs — including Bitcoin — into international trade.
Siluanov explained, “We can pay for the delivery of goods with digital financial assets. It is also possible to use Bitcoin, which we mined here in the Russian Federation, within the experimental regime.”
Russia Legalizes Mining and Scales DFA Use
The minister noted that Russia legalized Bitcoin mining earlier in 2024, paving the way for such transactions.
He added, “We say that they need to be developed and expanded, and I am sure that next year, it will be a reality.”
Siluanov Cautions Against Crypto Investment Amid Bitcoin Highs
While advocating for DFA use in trade, Siluanov has warned against viewing cryptocurrency as an investment vehicle.
In a speech on Nov. 6, he stated, “Some people see cryptocurrency as a source of quick money. I don’t recommend it as a means of investment.”
His remarks underline the dual approach of promoting DFAs in trade while cautioning against speculative risks for individual investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $98,000 mark after the Dec. 24 Wall Street open, with “large spot buyers” driving the rebound in its price action.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching new local highs of $98,020 on Bitstamp.
The cryptocurrency gained over 3% in a day, recovering from earlier in the week when it retested December lows.
Popular X account Exitpump expressed optimism, suggesting that the long-anticipated “Santa rally” may have arrived for crypto.
“BTC Large spot buyers showing up, lfg,” Exitpump posted, accompanied by a chart depicting exchange order-book volumes.
Meanwhile, CoinGlass reported nearly $40 million in BTC short liquidations within the past 24 hours, with the total cross-crypto liquidations reaching $150 million.
Breaking Key Resistance Levels
Analytics account Bitcoindata21 highlighted Bitcoin’s positive momentum, noting progress in flipping key volume-weighted average price (VWAP) resistance levels.
“Nice strength in Bitcoin today,” they wrote, emphasizing the need to surpass the $98.5k VWAP to target all-time highs.
Their chart also illustrated a rebound in the Coinbase premium, signaling increased buying pressure during U.S. trading hours.
Cautious Optimism Amid Risks
While optimism grew among some market watchers, others struck a cautious tone.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned about the risks of further downside.
“Yesterday, Bitcoin showed some signs of a relief rally after which price was rejected to almost new lows. Today, Bitcoin is rebounding yet again and once again into the old support,” Rekt Capital explained.
He added, “As long as the previously lost supports turn into new resistance, additional downside should be expected. Conversely, a reclaim of these previously lost supports would obviously be bullish.”