After dropping 3.45% on Sept. 30, Bitcoin (BTC) missed out on a monthly bullish engulfing candle for the first time since January 2023, trading at $63,946.64.
Despite this setback, a year-long bull flag remains intact for Bitcoin, which will likely undergo a bullish breakout once BTC closes above the $68,000-$70,000 range on the monthly chart.
Bitcoin researcher Smithson With presented a new approach to predicting Bitcoin’s cycle top price using a quantile regression model.
In a post on X, With explained that quantile regression prioritizes all cumulative BTC data to present quantiles or percentiles. These can be used to study Bitcoin returns over time. The cumulative data includes factors such as supply, volatility, distribution over time, and survivability in various risk environments.
Unlike traditional linear regression, quantile regression provides deeper insight into potential outcomes by focusing on extremes, particularly the 99th percentile, according to the researcher.
With noted that the current projection simulates a 99th percentile power-law regression model, utilizing Bitcoin price data dating back to July 2013. He stated:
“You see that the model trajectory and Nov 1st, 2025 price prediction changes dramatically (performing the modelling in 2013 is bright pink, most recently is yellow) — but it clearly forms a quasi-exponential decay trend.”
A quasi-exponential decay trend indicates that the period of deviation from the actual trend has either halved or doubled over time.
In essence, With predicts that the cycle top will occur around November 2025, with a price target potentially as high as $275,000.
He also mentioned that this study could be refined by channeling deviations through a decay period and evaluating multiple percentiles. With expects further analysis to confirm a cycle top value between $250,000 and $300,000 in 2025.
Bitcoin has quickly recovered to $64,000 after falling to as low as $62,825 on Sept. 30.
Luckshury, lead at trading platform Exocharts, emphasized that Bitcoin’s uptrend will likely continue if key support at $63,200 holds. This price point serves as the point-of-control (POC) based on the recent uptrend formation, according to the trader.
