Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively tight trading range, fluctuating within a 4.5% margin around the $34,700 mark. Despite this apparent consolidation, the cryptocurrency has experienced notable gains of 24.2% since October 7.
These gains have ignited optimism among investors, driven by the anticipation of the 2024 Bitcoin halving and the possible approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.
However, concerns about a bearish global economic outlook have cast a shadow over the financial markets.
Some experts are apprehensive about macroeconomic data indicating a global economic slowdown, as the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate above 5.25% to combat inflation.
Recent data, such as the 6.4% contraction in Chinese exports in October and a 1.4% drop in Germany’s October industrial production, have fueled these concerns.
The global economic uncertainty has also affected other markets, causing WTI oil prices to dip below $78 for the first time since July, despite the potential for supply cuts from major oil producers.
Neel Kashkari, President of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed bearish sentiments about inflation, prompting investors to seek refuge in U.S. Treasurys and driving the 10-year note yield down to 4.55%, its lowest level in six weeks.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 stock market index has defied expectations by reaching 4,383 points, its highest level in nearly seven weeks, amid the global economic slowdown.
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This phenomenon can be attributed to the significant cash reserves held by firms within the S&P 500, offering protection in a high-interest rate environment and aligning with investor preferences during uncertain times.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin’s futures open interest has surged to $16.3 billion, the highest level since April 2022, highlighting growing demand for Bitcoin options and futures.
This increased interest is fueled by the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024.
To gauge market health, analysts are closely monitoring the Bitcoin futures premium, which has reached its highest level in over a year at 11%.
This indicates strong demand for Bitcoin futures, particularly from leveraged long positions. Additionally, the demand for Bitcoin call (buy) options has outweighed put (sell) options, reflecting a 40% bias towards bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin options open interest has also surged by 51% in the past month, reaching $15.6 billion, with growth predominantly driven by bullish instruments.
Despite some skepticism and hedging, Bitcoin’s derivatives market remains robust, with no signs of excessive optimism. This aligns with the prevailing bullish outlook, which targets Bitcoin prices exceeding $40,000 by year-end.
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