Bitcoin retail investors have been sending large amounts of Bitcoin to Binance in 2025, with data showing that 6,000 BTC, worth about $625 million, was moved in January. This suggests that smaller-scale investors believe the bull market might be coming to an end, at least for the time being.
On the other hand, Bitcoin whales, who are typically seen as the “smart money” in the market and play a significant role in shaping short-term price movements, have largely refrained from selling. In January, whale inflows to Binance amounted to only 1,000 BTC, which is about $104 million, indicating that they are showing restraint in taking profits.
According to CryptoQuant’s contributor Darkfost, this contrast in behavior between retail investors and whales is notable. “We often hear about a contradiction in the behavior of investors categorized as whales and retail,” he wrote in a market update. “This is exactly what is happening now when analyzing data from Binance in the short term.” Retail investors, especially those who typically trade smaller amounts, appear more willing to sell their Bitcoin, while whales are taking a more cautious approach. This dynamic reflects a broader trend where retail traders seem to be reacting to short-term market movements, while whales are more strategic, keeping a long-term view.
This difference in behavior suggests that whales may be better indicators of market trends. Darkfost pointed out that it is often considered a better choice to follow the actions of whales rather than retail investors. The contrasting data supports this theory, with significant retail inflows continuing to Binance while whale activity remains subdued.
Alongside these trends, broader data shows that mainstream interest in Bitcoin may have cooled off. Google Trends data, for example, indicates a “reset” in interest after Bitcoin’s price hit all-time highs in late 2024. Analyst CryptoCon applied the relative strength index (RSI) volatility indicator to Bitcoin’s historical data and observed a decrease in search activity related to Bitcoin. This reflects a decline in hype, with retail investors perhaps feeling that the price surge has already peaked.
The divergence between retail and whale behavior underscores the uncertainty in the market, with smaller investors looking to cash out while larger players remain on the sidelines for now.
