Bitcoin is poised for a downturn around its upcoming block subsidy halving, though the exact timing remains uncertain.
Renowned trader and analyst Rekt Capital, in his latest YouTube presentation on February 20, forecasted BTC’s price trajectory mirroring the bullish trends of 2016 and 2020.
The deliberation revolves around the timing of the 2024 “pre-halving retrace” for Bitcoin, which has lingered within a narrow band for over a week, encountering resistance around $52,000.
Despite dampened sentiment and subdued performance of alternative cryptocurrencies, seasoned market observers maintain a positive outlook.
Drawing from historical patterns leading to all-time highs, Rekt Capital identified common phases in bull market formations.
He elucidated, “In the past, a macro downtrend break always precedes upside going into the halving. Then we have a pre-halving retrace and then a post-halving reaccumulation period and then parabolic price action toward new all-time highs.”
A chart accompanying the analysis depicted BTC/USD breaking its initial downward trendline, only to encounter resistance from a previously established zone.
The absence of breaking through and subsequently retesting this zone as support — the “pre-halving retrace” phase — characterises the current state of affairs in 2024.
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Rekt Capital asserted, “We’re going to have the same thing in this cycle as well.” The focal point for the anticipated pre-halving pullback resides around $45,000, as corroborated by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
The query persists, “Are we going to retest this resistance this month in the pre-halving period?” as the analyst highlighted the recurrent failure to do so in preceding pre-halving periods.
Earlier assessments by Rekt Capital indicated Bitcoin’s complete immersion in its pre-halving surge, with recent observations suggesting accelerated key price developments compared to previous cycles.
Turning to current market dynamics, others expressed reluctance to adopt a bearish stance amidst the ongoing lateral movements.
Caleb Franzen, founder of research platform Cubic Analytics, remarked on Bitcoin’s steadfast trading range, observing minimal deviation over the past week.
Similarly, analyst Matthew Hyland underscored the significance of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from all-time highs, cautioning that a breach below $49,000 could alter the outlook, while consolidation within an upward trajectory favours its continuity.
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