According to a recent analysis by DecenTrader, Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs in 2024, but not without some challenges along the way.
The analysis, released on February 2nd, suggests that Bitcoin’s price behavior will follow a typical pattern during a “halving year.”
DecenTrader predicts that Bitcoin will experience about a month of sideways price movement before the market reacts to the upcoming block subsidy halving.
CEO and co-founder Filbfilb explains that investors should anticipate a surge in buying activity approximately two months before the halving, which is currently estimated to occur on April 18.
However, following this buying surge, there may be another “sell the news event,” similar to what happened when spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched in January.
Filbfilb points out that there are roughly 75 days remaining until the Bitcoin halving, suggesting that buying interest is likely to start no later than six weeks before the event, or around the second week of March.
This anticipation among speculators could drive Bitcoin’s price to its current two-year high of $49,000 before a sell-off resembling the ETF launch occurs.
Nevertheless, the path ahead appears promising, as price discovery is expected to happen before the end of 2024, similar to the outcome of Bitcoin’s last halving year in 2020.
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Filbfilb advises investors to be aware that Bitcoin tends to front-run the “sell-the-news” phenomenon associated with halving events.
Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential for a new all-time high, the first quarter of 2024 may be challenging for traders.
In addition to Bitcoin-specific factors, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties could contribute to wider risk-asset turbulence.
Concerns include the weakness of the United States banking system, which former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects to come to a head in March.
Some analysts even believe that Bitcoin may not reach a new all-time high until the end of 2025.
Filbfilb remains cautious and warns against excessive optimism, emphasizing that previous market cycles in Bitcoin have followed a consistent pattern driven by investor emotions.
As Bitcoin traded just under $43,000 into the February 4th weekly close, the cryptocurrency market’s trajectory remains uncertain, with various factors influencing its future performance.
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