Bitcoin could experience a “strong bull rally” if the Puell Multiple, a key BTC price metric, follows a historical breakout pattern.
In a Nov. 18 blog post, CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple is nearing a rare golden cross with its 365-day moving average (SMA365), a signal that has historically triggered significant price surges.
Puell Multiple Breakout Could Spark 90% BTC Price Rally
CryptoQuant’s analysis reveals that in the past five years, the Puell Multiple has crossed its SMA365 only three times.
Each occurrence coincided with substantial BTC price gains, averaging a 90% increase.
“Puell Multiple helps us understand market cycles from a mining perspective,” explained CryptoQuant contributor Burakkesmeci.
“It is a crucial indicator for evaluating mining profitability.”
The Puell Multiple measures the daily value of Bitcoin mined relative to its 365-day average, providing insights into miner stability.
When the metric crosses its SMA365, it often precedes rapid BTC price increases.
Previous breakouts include an 83% rally in March 2019, a 113% gain in January 2020, and a 76% surge in January 2024.
“This data shows that after Puell Multiple settles above its SMA365, an average increase of around 90% in Bitcoin’s price has historically followed,” CryptoQuant stated.
The platform added that supportive macroeconomic conditions increase the likelihood of an “inevitable” rally.
“All these data points and the macroeconomic framework suggest that a strong bull rally might be on the horizon,” the post concluded.
RSI and FOMO Indicate Bull Market Just Beginning
As Bitcoin’s price rises over 40% in Q4, analysts predict the bull market’s most intense phase is still ahead.
The parabolic phase, typically lasting 300 days, could push BTC/USD to new highs, with expectations for a six-figure price growing.
However, some caution that retail “FOMO” (Fear of Missing Out) could lead to a sharp correction.
PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, projects FOMO will peak in early 2025, supported by Bitcoin’s monthly RSI remaining above the 70 “overbought” threshold, now at 74.4.