Bitcoin’s price may be heading for new highs in the coming months, according to recent research by economist Timothy Peterson. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin could reach as high as $138,000 within 90 days — provided current macroeconomic trends hold.
Statistical Edge for Bitcoin Bulls
Peterson’s latest forecast is rooted in a data-driven look at the U.S. High Yield Index Effective Yield, which is currently above 8%. Based on historical data, this level of yield has coincided with positive Bitcoin performance more often than not.
“This has happened 38 times since 2010 (monthly data),” he explained. “3 months later: Bitcoin was up 71% of the time. The median gain was +31%. If it went lower, the worst loss was -16%.”
With these odds favoring the bulls, Peterson outlined a potential BTC price range between $75,000 and $138,000 over the next three months.
Strong Floor, Bullish Ceiling
Peterson’s models, including his proprietary “Lowest Price Forward” tool, continue to suggest solid support for Bitcoin even in the face of market volatility. Earlier this year, he gave 95% odds that Bitcoin would not fall below $69,000 in March.
For Bitcoin to hit the upper end of his new forecast, it would require a 62% rally from current levels. While ambitious, the projection is not out of reach if the macroeconomic environment remains favorable.
Unusual Correlation With the U.S. Dollar
In a notable shift, Bitcoin has shown a rare positive correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), diverging from its historical pattern. Peterson attributes this anomaly to shared responses to broader economic stressors.
“This level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented. The relationship is not causal, but reflective of underlying conditions affecting both,” he said.
He further explained that in 2024, Bitcoin and the dollar began reacting similarly to factors like tightening liquidity, elevated real interest rates, and global risk aversion. However, he believes this alignment is temporary.
“BTC will decouple and rise when real yields drop + liquidity returns,” Peterson predicted.
Dollar Weakness Could Fuel the Next Rally
Recent data shows the DXY holding below the critical 100 threshold — one of its weakest points in the last three years. This decline in dollar strength may offer Bitcoin a tailwind, mirroring conditions during the early 2023 bull run.
While macroeconomic uncertainty continues, analysts like Peterson remain optimistic that Bitcoin could capitalize on the current environment, potentially ushering in a new phase of growth.
