Bitcoin has three months until the bull market resumes, but it could still see 300% gains by 2026, according to a fresh analysis by the pseudonymous engineer Apsk32.
On July 9, Apsk32 posted on X, revisiting his power law metric to project Bitcoin’s future performance. The power law provides a lower BTC price support band that has held since BTC/USD traded at just $1.
Additional bands, or “time contours,” offer further price information, ultimately suggesting a $1 million price target for 2036.
“Time contours tell us how long it will be before the support forces current prices upward.
For 12 years, every bear market has returned to this support line,” a previous X post from June explains.
“The support passes one million dollars in 2036 and bitcoin isn’t stopping there.”
By mapping past price action onto the current four-year cycle, Apsk32’s analysis explains current market behavior, including the ongoing 25% drop from March’s $73,800 all-time highs.
“If bitcoin’s cycle pattern continues, price should remain inside or near this blue cloud,” the latest post summarized.
“The ETFs pushed us out of the cloud and now we’re reverting back.
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“We’re 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.”
An accompanying chart shows the “Power Law Fractal Cloud” — a guideline range for BTC/USD moving forward.
“Does the price have to stay within the cloud? Absolutely not,” Apsk32 acknowledged.
“This time could be different, in fact it already is.”
As Cointelegraph reports, Bitcoin traders are bracing for further BTC price declines amid a climate of fear across the crypto market.
Sub-$50,000 levels have come back into focus, aligning the current drawdown with previous ones.
Optimism, however, is fueled by reduced selling by Bitcoin miners over the past month and a return to net inflows for U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On July 8, ETFs saw inflows of nearly $300 million, marking their best single-day tally in over a month, according to data from sources including UK-based investment firm Farside Investors.
“Looks like the boomers & institutions are buying the dip here, while Germany offloads a bunch of coins,” popular trader Jelle wrote, contrasting ETF buying with BTC sales by the German government.
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