According to new research by analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin investors may face a period of “sideways boredom” that could last up to 18 months.
Despite a 70% gain in the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its momentum, leaving investors uncertain about its future price action.
Glassnode suggests that a classic pre-bull market phase is currently unfolding, but long-term holders will need to exercise patience.
The research examines the “liveliness” of the Bitcoin supply, which refers to the tendency of holders to spend or hold their coins. It reveals a trend of mass accumulation as coins gradually migrate into cold storage, effectively reducing the available supply.
The study estimates that this steady and gradual accumulation began over two years ago and predicts that it may continue for another 6 to 12 months.
Meanwhile, short-term holders, who have held their coins for a maximum of 155 days, form the more speculative end of the investor base and are being closely monitored.
While whales, the largest-volume holders, are currently net distributors, Glassnode suggests that there is an undercurrent of demand despite recent regulatory pressures on major exchanges.
The research concludes that digital asset markets are currently displaying low volatility, volumes, and realized value, indicating a period of investor apathy.
Nevertheless, the pattern of wealth transfer to the price-insensitive hodler cohort remains intact, suggesting that a phase of sideways boredom may lie ahead, potentially lasting between 8 to 18 months, based on historical cycles.
In summary, Glassnode’s research suggests that Bitcoin investors should prepare for a potentially long and uneventful period before significant price movements occur.
While the market is currently characterized by accumulation and decreasing liquidity, the research indicates that the underlying demand for Bitcoin remains, despite the regulatory challenges faced by the industry.
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