Bitcoin‘s ability to surpass its all-time highs, reached in March, hinges on the upcoming U.S. inflation results, says a crypto analyst.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results, set to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 12, are pivotal.
“If inflation prints 3.3% or lower, Bitcoin should make a new all-time high,” Markus Thielen, head researcher at 10x Research, stated in a report on May 29. This prediction comes ahead of the crucial CPI release.
The previous CPI result, recorded on May 15, stood at 3.4%.
Thielen emphasizes that a slight decrease to 3.3% could propel Bitcoin to new heights. In the lead-up to the May CPI announcement, he anticipates robust inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
However, should the CPI exceed expectations, Bitcoin’s momentum could falter, mirroring trends observed earlier in the year.
Since May 13, data from Farside has shown consistent daily inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a peak of $305.7 million on May 21.
Thielen asserts that Bitcoin’s price movements are not random but are significantly influenced by key factors, primarily inflation.
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Historical patterns support this view, as Bitcoin’s price has often dropped following higher-than-expected CPI results.
For instance, on April 10, the CPI was reported at 3.5%, just slightly above expectations.
This marginal increase led to a 6.67% drop in Bitcoin’s price, falling to $56,000 by April 30.
Thielen also reflected on the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11.
Despite a strong start with $611 million in inflows on the first day, the rest of January saw disappointing inflows. He attributed this to unexpectedly high CPI results.
“The CPI came in at 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected number and higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous month,” Thielen explained.
He concluded, “It is no coincidence that Bitcoin was weak in January, stronger into March, but then consolidated for two months.”
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