Amidst the growing anticipation and skepticism surrounding the potential approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, notable Bitcoin critic and advocate for gold, Peter Schiff, has issued a cautionary warning to Bitcoin enthusiasts.
In a tweet posted on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Schiff expressed concerns about the potential catastrophic impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the price of BTC.
He argued that the mere prospect of a U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has bolstered the price of Bitcoin and speculative demand for years.
Schiff’s contention is that if the expected institutional demand for Bitcoin doesn’t materialize following ETF approval, it could lead to a significant decline in BTC’s price.
Schiff has maintained his skepticism towards Bitcoin for an extended period, consistently predicting its downfall, although his predictions have been proven wrong in each market cycle.
His tweet drew responses from Bitcoin proponents who countered his argument by likening the potential ETF’s impact to that of a gold ETF on the demand for physical gold.
Despite the ongoing debate, those eagerly awaiting the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. may face further delays.
A data-focused consultancy firm, Matrixpoint, predicts that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to reject all spot Bitcoin ETF applications before the final deadline of January 10.
READ MORE: Bitcoin Surges Above $45,000 Amid Anticipation of Spot ETF Approval
Matrixpoint’s forecast diverges from the consensus among many ETF analysts, who previously estimated a 90% likelihood of approval before the January 10 deadline.
Matrixpoint claims that all the applications submitted to the SEC fall short of a crucial requirement that must be met for approval.
Consequently, the firm anticipates that the first spot Bitcoin ETF may not receive approval until the second quarter of 2024.
Matrixpoint’s analysis factors in the current composition of the SEC’s leadership, where Democrats hold a majority among the five voting commissioners.
This political dynamic makes it less probable that any of the commissioners, including SEC chief Gary Gensler, would vote in favor of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Contrary to earlier reports citing unnamed sources that predicted approval by January 2, the SEC has yet to make a decision as the January 10 deadline approaches.
This uncertainty has led to a shift in market sentiment from optimism to skepticism, evident in the weakness of crypto mining stocks and the sell-off of various crypto-related U.S. stocks.
Even Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who initially believed there was a 99% chance of approval in the first quarter of 2024, now acknowledges a slim possibility that the SEC could reject the applications, describing it as the “rug pull of a decade.”
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