Bitcoin‘s trajectory is mirroring its post-2016 halving event, with current analyses suggesting a potential local bottom and future peaks reaching up to $350,000 in this cycle, as observed by cryptocurrency traders.
Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous crypto trader, noted in a May 11 post on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin’s pattern closely follows its 2016 behavior.
“Bitcoin has repeated 2016 history perfectly, offering a downside wick below the bottom of its current re-accumulation range within a three-week window after the Halving,” Rekt Capital stated.
At this stage in the cycle, the reaccumulation range is defined as any price under $61,081. Presently, Bitcoin’s trading price slightly lags this benchmark at $60,901, based on CoinMarketCap data.
Rekt also pointed out that Bitcoin is in the last “pre-halving retrace” phase, which in 2016 led to a significant 48% price increase six months later, reaching $973 by December 30.
Despite the current prices, Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, sees a promising outlook based on the price drawdown from the all-time high (ATH) chart.
This chart tracks the decline from Bitcoin’s highest price point to its lowest within a certain period.
Peterson stated, “Based on adoption and prior drawdowns, we can guesstimate that the peak value of this cycle would be between $175,000 – $350,000 in the next 9 months.”
He anticipates the bull market concluding by January 2025.
Additionally, another indicator, the daily 100 moving average, is being closely watched by analysts.
This average, which forecasts long-term Bitcoin price trends, is calculated by summing up the last 100 days’ prices and dividing by 100.
According to Daan Crypto traders, this indicates that Bitcoin might be near its local bottom.
In their May 11 post, they drew comparisons to a similar trend observed following the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January.
A subsequent 32% price rise to $51,730 by February 25 supported their analysis.
Daan Crypto traders concluded with a cautious optimism: “Support until it isn’t, but bulls need to put in some work.”
This sentiment underscores the dynamic and speculative nature of Bitcoin’s market movements, hinging on both historical patterns and evolving market conditions.
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