Gold-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 have witnessed significant outflows, amounting to billions, in stark contrast to ETFs tracking the spot price of Bitcoin.
As per an X post from Bloomberg intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas on Feb. 14, the foremost gold ETFs have encountered outflows totaling $2.4 billion thus far in 2024.
Only three among them have experienced marginal inflows this year: VanEck Merk Gold Shares, FT Vest Gold Strategy Target Income ETF, and Proshares UltraShort Gold.
Notably, the most substantial outflows emanated from BlackRock’s iShares Gold Trust Micro and iShares Gold Trust, with $230.4 million and $423.6 million exiting, respectively.
Conversely, the ten sanctioned spot Bitcoin ETFs have garnered cumulative inflows of $3.89 billion and registered unprecedented volume since their inception on Jan. 11, according to preliminary data from Farside.
Commenting on the trend, portfolio manager Bitcoin Munger remarked, “Not only is Bitcoin sucking up funds, but gold is hemorrhaging AUM at an alarming rate across many ETFs.”
Balchunas, however, opined that the migration of gold ETF investors to Bitcoin ETFs wasn’t necessarily prevalent, suggesting it could be attributed to “US equity FOMO” instead.
Bitcoin pioneer Jameson Lopp shared a chart comparing the performance of the two ETFs, raising questions about the stance of gold investor and Bitcoin detractor Peter Schiff.
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The disparity has been exacerbated by the decline in gold prices throughout 2024. The precious metal has depreciated by 3.4% since the year’s commencement, reaching a two-month low of $1,993 per ounce on Feb. 14.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices have surged by 23.5% over the same period, hitting a two-year high of $52,483 on Feb. 14.
In a report released earlier in February, the World Gold Council highlighted global gold ETF outflows and a “reduction in speculative positioning” as significant factors contributing to gold’s subdued performance.
It also noted that “Long-term Treasuries and the US dollar, on the back of strong upside US economic surprises, were also headwinds.”
While Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone had previously forecasted gold outperforming Bitcoin in 2024, current observations suggest otherwise.
Bitcoin and gold, often compared for their shared store of value attributes, have historically been favoured investments during economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Countless Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025 indicate a very bullish scenario for BTC.
Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has seen a tumultuous journey since its inception in 2009. Its price has experienced dramatic fluctuations, reflecting a range of factors including investor sentiment, regulatory news, and changes in the broader financial ecosystem. As we look towards 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin price predictions are becoming increasingly important for investors trying to navigate the volatile crypto market.
The Factors Influencing Bitcoin Price Predictions
Before diving into specific Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025, it’s crucial to understand the factors that can influence its value. These include:
- Adoption Rates: As more businesses and consumers adopt Bitcoin for transactions, its value could increase due to heightened demand.
- Regulatory Environment: Regulations can have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. Positive regulatory developments can lead to price increases, while stringent regulations may have the opposite effect.
- Technological Advances: Innovations, such as improvements in blockchain technology, can enhance Bitcoin’s functionality and appeal, potentially boosting its price.
- Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment, often driven by news and social media, can cause sudden and dramatic price movements.
- Macroeconomic Factors: Global economic trends, including inflation rates and currency fluctuations, can influence Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an investment.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2024
Looking ahead to 2024, Bitcoin price predictions are mixed, reflecting the diverse views of analysts. Some experts are bullish, citing increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies and potential technological advancements as key drivers of growth. They argue that as Bitcoin becomes more mainstream, its price could soar, potentially reaching new all-time highs. On the other hand, skeptics point to regulatory uncertainties and the volatile nature of the crypto market as reasons for caution, suggesting that while growth is possible, it may be more moderate.
A consensus view among many analysts is that Bitcoin could experience significant growth in 2024, with prices possibly ranging between $50,000 and $100,000. This prediction assumes continued growth in adoption, particularly by institutional investors, and a favorable regulatory environment. However, it’s important to note that the crypto market is notoriously difficult to predict, and unexpected developments could lead to divergent outcomes.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025
Looking further ahead to 2025, Bitcoin price predictions become even more speculative, given the additional uncertainty about future developments. However, many experts believe that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is positive, citing the limited supply of Bitcoin and increasing interest from both retail and institutional investors as factors that could drive prices higher.
Some bullish forecasts suggest that Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 by 2025, driven by continued adoption and the perception of Bitcoin as a “digital gold” that can act as a hedge against inflation. Others, however, caution that Bitcoin’s price could be affected by technological challenges, competition from other cryptocurrencies, or changes in the regulatory landscape, which could limit its upside potential.
Navigating the Uncertainty
Investors considering Bitcoin as part of their portfolio should be prepared for volatility and uncertainty. While Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025 offer insight into potential future trends, they are based on assumptions that may or may not materialize. Therefore, a diversified investment strategy that includes a range of assets may help mitigate risk.
Summary
Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025 highlight the potential for significant growth but also underscore the inherent uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market. Factors such as adoption rates, regulatory developments, and global economic trends will play a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Investors should stay informed, consider a range of viewpoints, and be prepared for both opportunities and challenges as the crypto landscape continues to evolve. Whether Bitcoin will reach the lofty heights predicted by some or encounter unexpected hurdles remains to be seen, but its journey will undoubtedly be closely watched by the financial world.
Bitcoin is anticipated to surge to a minimum of £200,000 in the forthcoming years and could even surpass half a million pounds, according to a prominent analyst.
In his most recent update on the long-term BTC price trajectory, advisor and early Bitcoin advocate Tuur Demeester projected BTC/USD to reach up to £600,000 by 2026.
Demeester attributed Bitcoin’s ascent to “trillions” of pounds in bailouts, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s rally to £50,000 this week is indicative of a growing confidence in its future appreciation.
The bullish arguments for BTC’s price surge revolve around the significant events of April’s block subsidy halving and the recent launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These developments reduce the emission of new Bitcoin and exert additional pressure on its available supply.
However, Demeester highlights macroeconomic factors as crucial drivers behind Bitcoin’s trajectory. He stated, “In ’21 bitcoin topped at £69k. I’m targeting £200-£600k by 2026. Fueled by £ trillions in global bailouts/stimulus.”
Discussion on social media platform X echoed concerns about systemic issues in the U.S. banking system and the government’s potential need to provide liquidity to prevent their decline.
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Cointelegraph reported on the possibility of risk-asset price volatility in March due to these ongoing challenges.
Demeester suggested that Bitcoin’s next multiyear peak could occur anywhere from 2025 onwards, and he anticipates a surge in mainstream interest, particularly after Bitcoin’s recent milestone of £50,000.
He stated, “I expect for retail to start waking up soon. Remember, there is no fever like bitcoin fever.”
Demeester’s track record in the Bitcoin sphere spans over a decade, with accurate predictions of Bitcoin’s recent all-time high between £50,000 and £100,000 in 2019 and 2020.
However, not all analysts share Demeester’s optimism. Some foresee a less rosy future for Bitcoin and altcoins, with predictions of a market reversal, including a potential drop to £30,000.
One such voice is popular trader Il Capo of Crypto, who warned of a potential rejection of BTC from the £50,000 level while altcoins continue to surge, indicating a market divergence.
Despite the recent bullish sentiment, Il Capo of Crypto has maintained a BTC price target of just £12,000 for most of the past year.
Google has unveiled plans to initiate a support fund worth 25 million euros (£21.4 million) to aid in skill training for Europeans in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI).
The AI Opportunity Initiative for Europe intends to facilitate training so individuals can “seize the opportunity of AI” at a time when the continent is positioned to “lead the way” in utilising AI for economic purposes.
“We want to play our part in empowering Europe’s workforce, supporting people through change so that everyone can benefit.”
The tech giant stated that this initiative is collaborating with European Union governments, civil society, academics, and businesses to offer advanced AI training to local startups, with a specific emphasis on vulnerable communities.
Approximately 10 million euros will be allocated to equip workers with the necessary skills to avoid “being left behind.”
A similar initiative was initiated by the Italian government in mid-2023, allocating millions of euros towards developing digital skills for workers at risk of displacement due to automation and AI.
Google mentioned that the AI programme follows a successful initiative launched in 2015 called “Grow with Google,” which provided free training to tackle the digital skills gap in the EU.
It claimed that the programme trained more than 12 million people.
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This recent initiative also entails a collaboration with the Centre for Public Impact (CPI), inviting applications from EU-based social enterprises and nonprofits to extend AI training to the widest audience.
Adrian Brown, the CPI’s executive director, stated that AI has the potential to “transform the world” but could also exacerbate inequality gaps.
“This new programme will help people across Europe develop their knowledge, skills, and confidence around AI, ensuring that no one is left behind.”
Google has also broadened the languages available for its AI foundational course to 18 and stated it is incorporating additional resources into its Google Career Certificates programme to enable professionals to gain practical experience applying AI in workplace scenarios.
This announcement coincides with local regulators preparing to finalise the EU AI Act, which oversees the utilisation and advancement of AI technologies within EU legal jurisdictions.
ARK 21Shares has adjusted its spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) application by adopting a cash-creation model, mirroring its approved spot Bitcoin ETF.
Additionally, it has proposed staking a portion of the ETF’s Ether to generate extra income.
In December 2023, ARK 21Shares and BlackRock were among the pioneers in converting their spot Bitcoin ETFs to a cash creation and redemption model after discussions with the U.S. securities regulator.
Initially, ARK 21Shares suggested an in-kind redemption model for its spot Ether ETF, which involved non-monetary payments like BTC.
Under the cash creation model, ARK 21Shares would buy Ether equivalent to the order and deposit it into the trust’s account, creating shares of the spot Ether ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that these changes, outlined in the latest Form S-1 amendment filed on Feb. 7, align the ETF with approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, the shift to a cash creation model may affect arbitrage transactions by authorized participants aimed at maintaining the share price close to Ether.
The latest S-1 filing also introduces a staking element to the spot Ether ETF. ARK 21Shares proposes staking a portion of the trust’s assets through trusted third-party staking providers, expecting to receive staking rewards as income.
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Staking activities carry risks such as losing ETH through slashing, and staked ETH might be locked up for extended periods.
Finance lawyer Scott Johnsson mentioned that the staking-related paragraphs were in brackets, indicating openness to discussion with regulators.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expressed skepticism about the SEC allowing staking in spot Ether ETFs but noted uncertainties.
Seyffart adjusted the odds of spot Ether ETF approval in 2024 from 70% to 60% on Jan. 30.
The SEC must decide on several ETF applications, including VanEck’s by May 23 and ARK 21Shares by May 24.
Seyffart anticipates decisions on all applications by May 23, similar to the SEC’s approach with spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10.
Ramp Network, a leading financial technology firm specializing in connecting cryptocurrencies with the global financial system, proudly unveils its groundbreaking document-free verification system. This innovative feature is now accessible to users in Brazil, marking a significant milestone in Ramp’s mission to facilitate seamless crypto transactions worldwide.
Traditionally, purchasing cryptocurrencies often involves a cumbersome process of submitting identity documents, resulting in delays and a subpar user experience. However, Ramp revolutionizes this process by enabling eligible users in Brazil to verify their identities within seconds using only their verified national tax or ID number. This streamlined approach ensures near-instant onboarding and smooth transactions, enhancing both efficiency and security.
In Brazil, users can initiate the verification process by inputting their CPF (taxpayer registry) number and providing a selfie, which is swiftly cross-referenced with the government’s database for authentication. This seamless procedure takes mere seconds, setting a new standard for simplicity and compliance in crypto transactions.
This update aligns with Ramp’s commitment to facilitating the onboarding of millions of new users into Web3 through user-friendly on- and off-ramps. As a leading provider of fintech infrastructure in the crypto industry, Ramp supports the seamless purchase of digital assets using fiat currencies and integrates with third-party applications via a simple API.
Szymon Sypniewicz, CEO and co-founder of Ramp, emphasizes the company’s dedication to ensuring both security and efficiency in Web3 onboarding. He states, “At Ramp, we want Web3 onboarding to be not only secure but also smooth and rapid. That’s why we’ve implemented this innovative feature, reducing the verification process from minutes to seconds, and eliminating the need for cumbersome physical documents for such transactions.”
Looking ahead, Ramp plans to expand its document-free verification system to additional markets, building upon its successful launch in Brazil. This strategic move aligns seamlessly with Ramp’s support for Pix, Brazil’s leading payments gateway, popular cards, and the Brazilian real (BRL). Recognizing Brazil as a key growth market, Ramp established a local entity last year, positioning itself for further expansion and the introduction of its unprecedented convenience to other countries.
Key figures representing United States-based cryptocurrency mining have expressed concerns about an emergency survey aimed at gathering information on energy consumption and sources by operators.
Cointelegraph contacted leading mining firms operating in the country following the announcement by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) regarding a provisional, mandatory survey to gauge the electricity usage of local mining firms.
In January 2024, the Department of Energy’s statistics agency received approval for its “emergency request” to collect data.
The administration aims to develop a “baseline snapshot,” identifying electricity sources for U.S. cryptocurrency miners and pinpointing regions with concentrated mining activity.
Various mining firms and organisations representing the broader blockchain industry have raised concerns over the legality of the approach and questioned why government-run institutions are targeting the cryptocurrency mining industry.
Respondents expressed concerns about the lack of clarity regarding the reason for the emergency survey and suspicions of political motivations.
Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council (TBC), criticised the “unprecedented information collection request” and highlighted the potential impact on industries relying on data centres:
“The EIA’s mandatory emergency survey of electricity consumption data represents the latest politically motivated campaign against Bitcoin mining, cryptocurrency, and U.S.-led innovation.”
Bratcher suggested that the survey is an abuse of authority aimed at furthering the Biden administration’s goal to limit or eliminate U.S.
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Bitcoin miners, while ignoring the industry’s use of renewable energy and operational flexibility.
Riot Blockchain echoed Bratcher’s sentiments, stating that the EIA’s request is unlawful and appears to serve a political agenda.
Brian Morgenstern, Riot’s head of public policy, labelled the survey as a politically motivated attack on Bitcoin driven by U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Commentators have questioned why the EIA has not imposed similar mandatory data collection measures on other energy-intensive industries in the U.S.
Taras Kulyk, CEO of SunnySide Digital, expressed concerns about the lack of context regarding the collection’s intent and why the digital mining sector is being singled out.
Colin Harper, head of research and content at Bitcoin mining software company Luxor, described the EIA’s move as concerning, noting the agency’s limited previous engagement with data center power use.
Cointelegraph also contacted U.S. mining firms Hut8, Core Scientific, Marathon Digital, and Foundry for their perspectives on the EIA’s energy data information survey. Iris Energy declined to comment.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has implemented new regulations, effective February 6, redefining the terms “dealer” and “government securities dealer.”
Initially proposed in 2022, these regulations mandate additional crypto market participants to register, join self-regulatory organizations, and adhere to federal securities laws.
However, the crypto community, decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, and pro-crypto politicians have criticized these regulations extensively.
They argue that since the regulations were first proposed, there has been a lack of clarity regarding the classification of crypto securities.
The primary point of contention lies in the definition of a dealer, potentially necessitating liquidity providers to register as securities dealers.
Consequently, any liquidity provider controlling over $50 million in capital would be obligated to register with the SEC.
SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce expressed her dissent in an official statement, citing the inconsistency of the dealer definition with the statutory framework and its adverse effects on market behavior and quality.
She emphasized that these regulations not only harm liquidity providers but also penalize liquidity provision, leading to a reduction in overall market liquidity.
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Various figures within the DeFi sector and crypto domain have echoed concerns over these regulations on social media.
Gabriel Shapiro, general counsel at Delphi Labs, highlighted uncertainties surrounding the dealer registration requirements and their impact on liquidity providers.
According to Shapiro, not all liquidity providers with $50 million assets under management qualify as securities dealers.
The determination depends on whether the tokens in the pool or the trades facilitated through the pool are classified as securities.
Bill Hughes, senior counsel and director of global regulatory matters at Consensys, stressed the importance of clarity regarding the classification of crypto assets under U.S. law.
He anticipates legal challenges to the new rules, emphasizing the significant impact they have on the securities markets.
Moreover, the SEC’s reluctance to provide clear crypto regulations despite persistent demands from the community and policymakers has drawn criticism.
Ripple, Grayscale, and Coinbase have all challenged the SEC’s actions in court, indicating a broader pushback against regulatory ambiguity.
Experts suggest that the recent regulations targeting liquidity providers may also face judicial scrutiny in the future.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF) has swiftly ascended into the upper echelon of U.S.-issued ETF products, ranking in the top 0.16%.
As of February 5th, the ETF has attracted over $3.19 billion in inflows, trailing only behind broad index funds tracking the S&P 500 and Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF, as reported by Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg.
Remarkably, within just 17 days since its inception, $IBIT has surged into the Top 5 in year-to-date flows, surpassing 99.98% of other ETFs.
Comparing against the 3,109 ETFs presently trading in the United States, BlackRock’s ETF stands out, placing in the top 0.16% in terms of flows.
Balchunas offers a slightly different assessment, suggesting a 0.02% position when measured against an estimated 10,000 ETFs globally.
Fidelity’s Bitcoin Fund follows closely behind, securing the eighth spot among U.S.-based ETF products with $2.51 billion in inflows.
Both BlackRock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETFs have steadily climbed the ranks, advancing from eighth and tenth positions at the end of January.
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Notably, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF products for trading on January 11th puts them at a seven-day trading disadvantage compared to other products whose flows are tallied from January 1st.
BitMEX Research data highlights the widening gap between BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs against seven other spot Bitcoin ETFs (excluding Grayscale) in terms of inflows.
ARK 21Shares and Bitwise secure third and fourth positions respectively, with over $100 million in accumulated flows each.
Meanwhile, Grayscale’s converted spot Bitcoin ETF, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), saw a decline in outflows for the sixth consecutive day, recording $73 million on February 6th.
Notably, inflows from other Bitcoin ETF issuers have consistently outpaced outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC for at least seven consecutive days, marking a significant shift in investor sentiment.
The latest outflow figure represents an 88% decrease from GBTC’s peak outflow day on January 22nd, signaling a changing landscape in the Bitcoin ETF market.
Crypto wallets associated with the now-defunct FTX exchange and its sister company, Alameda Research, have been active in transferring substantial digital assets totaling over $38.8 million to various cryptocurrency exchanges since January 2024, according to data from blockchain analytics firm PeckShield.
In February, these wallets were particularly active, with transfers totaling at least $7 million.
On February 4th, approximately $2.6 million in Ether was sent to Coinbase, and around $1.1 million in Ton (TON) and Fantom was transferred to FalconX and Wintermute.
On February 6th, the wallet addresses moved a minimum of $3.3 million in various assets to Coinbase, Coinbase Prime, FalconX, and Binance.
In January, these same crypto wallets linked to FTX and Alameda initiated transfers of at least $35 million to exchanges. On January 4th, they transferred $4.1 million in Cronos to Coinbase.
Shortly after, another $2.4 million in ETH was sent to Coinbase, followed by a transfer of 200 Wrapped BTC (WBTC) valued at $9 million to Binance on January 9th.
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Later in January, FTX and Alameda continued their transfers, moving an additional $16.3 million to various exchanges.
On January 17th, addresses connected to these organizations sent $8.9 million in Tether Gold (XAUT) to Coinbase and $2.6 million in ETH to Wintermute.
Towards the end of the month, on January 30th, they transferred $2.3 million in ETH to Coinbase, $1.3 million in various altcoins to Binance, and a $1.28 million sum to GSR Markets.
These transactions unfolded against the backdrop of FTX exchange’s ongoing restructuring efforts and its commitment to fully reimburse its customers.
In a U.S. court hearing on January 31st, the exchange announced its intention to focus on repaying customers but emphasized that this objective was not guaranteed, raising concerns and skepticism among critics.
Following the hearing, criticism escalated, with former United States Securities and Exchange Commission official John Reed Stark describing the restructuring plan as a “highway robbery of highway robbers” on February 4th.
The plan’s perceived prioritization of legal team profits sparked further controversy within the cryptocurrency community.