Despite skepticism from numerous crypto analysts and the broader crypto community regarding the approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some experts believe a surprise may be possible.
“If by some chance the SEC decides to approve then so many will be caught severely offside,” said crypto trader Matthew Hyland to his 142,000 followers on X on May 17.
He added, “If 90% of people think the ETH ETF will be denied, and the majority of those people think it will lead to a crypto crash then who will actually be selling?” Hyland noted that the expectation of denial is already “priced in.”
As of publication, Ether is trading at $3,102, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has estimated the odds of approval at 35%, while the broader crypto community, based on New York-based Polymarket’s predictions, places their estimates closer to 7%.
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Meanwhile, Coinbase institutional research analyst David Han believes there is potential for a positive outcome.
“We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%,” Han stated in Coinbase’s monthly outlook report published on May 15.
Han elaborated that as cryptocurrency becomes a more significant issue for voters in the lead-up to the November U.S. presidential election, the SEC might reconsider its stance on denial.
“As crypto begins to take form as an election issue, it’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial,” he said.
Han further argued that even if the VanEck and ARK Invest ETF applications are denied by the initial deadline of May 23, litigation could potentially overturn that decision.
This suggests that while current sentiment is largely pessimistic, there are plausible scenarios where the SEC might approve the spot Ether ETFs, leading to significant market movements.
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