Crypto altcoin seasons are expected to persist, thrilling speculative traders, but the intensity of their returns is likely to decrease as the market continues to mature, according to crypto analyst Willy Woo.
“Alt seasons will be weaker each cycle on from the great 2017 alt bubble,” Woo shared in an Oct. 26 post on X, pointing to the period when initial coin offerings (ICOs) — a popular method for raising capital by selling cryptocurrencies — first boomed.
Altcoin Seasons Will Remain, Driven by High-Risk Speculation
While Woo doesn’t deny the future of alt seasons, he emphasized that they’ll “certainly” see mid-cap and low-cap cryptocurrencies “pumping” after Bitcoin’s price gains. This is largely due to investors seeking returns further up the risk curve. Traditionally, traders observe Bitcoin’s dominance levels for clues, with many waiting for its peak to start reallocating capital into altcoins.
Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance is at 59.31%, according to TradingView, close to the 60% threshold some analysts predict will trigger a capital rotation into altcoins. Woo noted that the current altcoin cycle is heavily focused on memecoins, which he considers a light-hearted take on the crypto space.
These views diverge from those of Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, who recently suggested the “upcoming bull run will be all about Bitcoin and its layer 2s.”
Woo’s Caution Against Long-Term Altcoin Holdings
Woo urged caution with altcoins, warning his 1.1 million followers to avoid holding them long-term unless they’re well-informed. “Don’t ever hodl them unless you’re so knowledgeable that you’re an effective insider because alts are an insiders’ game,” he advised. Woo added that the alt market cap reflects only successful tokens, while failed ones fall off the radar.
“Also remember alt market cap is like the cricket bat that has had 10 new handles and 10 new blades, it’s the sum of all the new winners… losers don’t count to the market cap,” Woo said.
Many in the crypto community are debating when a true altseason might arrive. While some believe Bitcoin must first retake its all-time high of $73,679, analysts at crypto investment firm Hashkey Capital argue that an altcoin season is more likely only when Bitcoin surpasses $80,000.
