Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in Bitcoin trading, has issued a warning, predicting a potential 30% to 40% crash in BTC prices in March.
In a blog post on January 4th, the former CEO of BitMEX highlighted the likelihood of a turbulent week in financial markets.
While Bitcoin enthusiasts have been optimistic due to the expected regulatory approval of the United States’ first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming block subsidy halving in April, Hayes believes that challenges lie ahead.
Hayes attributes his caution to the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is trying to stabilize an economy grappling with inflation and instability.
In March, the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), established in response to the 2023 regional banking crisis, is set to expire. Shortly thereafter, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide on interest rates.
Hayes commented, “If my forecast is correct, the market will bankrupt a few banks within that period, forcing the Fed into cutting rates and announcing the resumption of the BTFP.”
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are highly responsive to changes in macro liquidity, and a Fed bailout could aid them after an initial shock akin to the 2023 volatility.
READ MORE: Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Remain High Despite SEC’s Need for More Time
However, Hayes believes that Bitcoin will rebound before the Fed meeting, asserting that it is the only neutral reserve hard currency not tied to the banking system, and it is traded globally.
He emphasized that Bitcoin knows the Fed always responds with liquidity injections in times of crisis.
Hayes anticipates a potential drop in BTC/USD prices ranging from 20% to 30% as March begins but believes that the upcoming halving will ultimately act as a catalyst for further price increases.
He cautiously stated that he won’t buy Bitcoin until after the critical March decision dates have passed.
The crypto community remains divided on the impact of ETF approvals. Concerns about potential rejections have already caused a nearly 10% drop in Bitcoin prices.
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin is due for a substantial correction, irrespective of ETF approval.
However, John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, predicts a positive reaction based on his tool’s readings, suggesting that Bitcoin might break higher in the near future.
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