The possibility of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) facing rejection by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this month is slim, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
While the outcome remains uncertain, Balchunas suggests that any delay or rejection is more likely to be due to the SEC’s need for additional time rather than an outright denial.
Balchunas, along with fellow ETF analyst James Seyffart, maintains a 90% probability of approval by January 10 but has refrained from raising the odds further due to this lingering concern.
He emphasizes that the 10% chance of rejection encompasses various scenarios.
However, Balchunas believes that the extensive time and effort invested by both the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers make an outright rejection at the last moment highly unlikely.
He characterizes such a rejection as the “rug pull of the decade,” considering the significant effort expended, particularly during the holiday season.
Vetle Lunde, an analyst from crypto research firm K33 Research, shares a similar outlook, estimating the chances of an ETF rejection at just 5% in a January 2 market report.
READ MORE: Data Suggests Limited Impact on Bitcoin Prices Despite SEC ETF Approval Speculation
Should the SEC issue an outright denial, Balchunas speculates that fund issuers might take legal action against the regulator, following the example of crypto asset manager Grayscale.
He believes that the substantial financial investments and efforts made thus far would discourage parties from giving up easily.
Public comments addressing the SEC’s request for feedback on the ETF filings continue to be submitted, with two recent submissions on January 2 advocating for an outright rejection.
One letter argued that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and its potential to bypass traditional financial systems could make it attractive to authoritarian regimes seeking to evade sanctions and exert control over their citizens.
In summary, while the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF rejection remains, analysts like Eric Balchunas and Vetle Lunde view it as a low probability event, with the SEC more likely to request additional time for review rather than outright denial.
The significant investments and efforts put into this endeavor make an outright rejection less plausible, and legal action might follow if such a scenario were to occur.
Public feedback on the matter continues to be submitted to the SEC, reflecting ongoing discussions within the crypto community.
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