The approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by January 10, 2024, is now almost certain, according to analysts at K33 Research.
In a report released on December 19, K33’s Head of Research, Anders Helseth, and Senior Analyst, Vetle Lunde, emphasized that recent developments surrounding ETFs, including filings by BlackRock and ARK Invest, adopting a cash-creation setup for their funds, have greatly increased the likelihood of approval in January.
The report also highlighted the robust performance of Bitcoin over the past week. Analysts observed that the trading volumes for spot Bitcoin had surged significantly compared to previous months.
This increase in volume was attributed to the strong rally of Bitcoin, which attracted new buyers and motivated profit-taking by sellers, resulting in price consolidation with elevated trading activity.
Despite the surge in spot Bitcoin trading, the report noted that open interest in BTC perpetual contracts had reached new yearly lows, indicating a lack of retail speculation.
In contrast, institutional investors on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) displayed an increasing appetite for Bitcoin-related risk, with CME open interest growing by 3,100 BTC in the past week.
However, analysts anticipated that this trend might change following the approval of spot ETFs.
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Once spot ETFs receive approval, the analysts predicted a “significant rotation” out of futures-based ETFs on the CME.
Additionally, active traders were likely to realize profits on their current long positions, collectively reducing the dominance of CME in the Bitcoin derivatives market.
The report also drew attention to the notable performance of certain altcoins, such as Solana Ordinals (ORDI) and Bonk (BONK), which experienced substantial gains in the last 20 days, rising by 22%, 114%, and 338%, respectively.
While such altcoin enthusiasm is often considered a sign of a market top, the analysts explained that this could be advantageous for Bitcoin.
The analysts suggested that the surge in altcoin enthusiasm helps release speculative pressure from Bitcoin, potentially reducing the risk of liquidation cascades.
Altcoins, in this context, serve as a positive pressure valve for those seeking excitement in the market while allowing for healthier leverage conditions in Bitcoin.
Consequently, Bitcoin may benefit from the diversification of speculative interest into altcoins.
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