The crypto community is eagerly anticipating the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, with some experts cautioning that this could have unintended consequences for cryptocurrency exchanges.
Industry insiders are forecasting that a spot BTC ETF could become tradable as early as 2024.
This development, coupled with Bitcoin’s upcoming block reward halving expected in April, has led Blockstream CEO Adam Back to believe that BTC’s price could surge to $100,000.
Additionally, proponents like Jan3 CEO Samson Mow suggest that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could potentially propel Bitcoin to as high as $1 million within a matter of “days to weeks.”
However, the outlook for centralized cryptocurrency exchanges is not as rosy, according to ETF Store president Nate Geraci and Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Geraci recently expressed his concerns on X (formerly Twitter), stating that once approved, a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could lead to a “bloodbath” for cryptocurrency exchanges.
Geraci argues that retail investors trading spot Bitcoin ETFs will enjoy the benefits of institutional-level trade execution and lower commissions.
In contrast, users of crypto exchanges will continue to face higher trading costs and “retail trade execution,” which Geraci emphasizes must improve in order to remain competitive with a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Eric Balchunas underscores that a spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to carry a trading cost of just 0.01%, which aligns with the average fee for ETF trading.
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In comparison, exchanges like Coinbase currently charge fees that can go as high as 0.6%, depending on factors such as the cryptocurrency, transaction size, and trading pairs.
The introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF is likely to intensify price competition within the crypto industry.
Balchunas believes that this will redirect funds away from exchanges that invest heavily in advertising, such as during events like the Super Bowl, to attract users.
Balchunas commented, “It would be the last ‘Crypto Super Bowl’ if they launch ETFs because ETFs are such a lean and cost-effective industry.
Some of these crypto exchanges have been capitalizing on their high fees, and this shift could change the landscape significantly.”
Historically, Coinbase has derived a substantial portion of its revenue from transaction fees. In 2022, the platform generated $2.4 billion in transaction fees, representing 77% of its total net revenue of $3.1 billion.
Nonetheless, Coinbase has been actively diversifying its revenue streams by offering additional income-generating services like subscriptions, aiming to reduce its reliance on fees.
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